 Good day, fellow investors. Now, I have made five videos about stock market risks without much actionable ideas. Now, we are going to really talk about actionable ideas and how to position yourself, how to time the market, because we are going to talk about shorts and how to short the market. I'm going to first talk about the macro short opportunity, the micro then in another video. And then I'm going to make a third video. If I have convinced you that shorting is something that should be done, I'm going to make a third video that tells you you shouldn't short because it's not for you. So it will be very interesting. Hope you enjoy the short series as I'm really looking into that part of the investing environment to see how to protect myself from the current risks. Let's start with discussing a little bit the macro risks. We have heard in another video that Ray Dalio said that by 2020 there is a 70% chance of an US recession. 70% chance of a recession that's huge in two years. However, he also said that we are in pre bubble state that will probably become a bubble state in the next year, year and a half and then turn into a recession. So when that happens, at that point where we are clearly in a bubble, there will be a lot of fragilities in the market that the market doesn't see because we are in a bubble and offer great short opportunities. Perhaps there are some short opportunities. Now we'll research, we'll discuss. I hope to find a lot of ideas in the comment section from you that we can steer, find something that I haven't seen yet or something like that. So hope to create value by discussing everything with you. Nevertheless, 70% chance of a recession will have a huge impact on many, many stocks on the negative side. And if you want to be protected, you might be short those stocks. So it's an interesting game that opens the opportunity starts opening now because we are in the late part of the economic cycle. Let's look at the short investing strategy from a macro perspective. In this video, and then we'll go into the micro for individual companies and then we'll do other videos on shorting. So please subscribe if you haven't. First, debt burdens will increase due to higher interest rates. Now you can take a loan and what the biggest part of what you pay is the interest on that loan. If interest rates increase and if the loan is variable rate, adjustable rate, then the burden becomes higher, higher and higher and therefore consumption gets lower. Similarly, corporations cannot take as much debt or have higher costs on refinancing, which hurts earnings, hurts dividends and stocks go lower. So that's the first macro short candidate. Let's say then unemployment is at maximum levels. Unemployment in the U.S. It's at 4%. So if you want to start something, if you want to grow, where are you going to find new employees or you're going to find them but with a significant increase in costs? So this means that economy is at maximum potential and it can't stay there forever. Sooner or later, it will have to at least see a small recession, which can have a huge impact on all the extremely high valuations that we see in the market. Now something interesting in relation to the tariffs that we have been discussing. Commodity prices have been rising and they usually rise alongside inflation in the late part of the economic cycle. Higher commodity prices mean higher input costs. Higher input costs, lower margins, lower profits, lower dividends, put more pressure on stocks. Now another thing is that the economy now is in a synchronized global expansion. How long do you think that can last? Will it last one year, two years, six months? It's very unlikely that we will not see any shock anywhere to that economy. And when something hits, as it's very stretched now, it will have repercussions around the whole globe. So also business, doing business, business risks are always there and they are better to be taken advantage where nobody is looking at them. Then something very interesting, counterparty risk, mortgage, debt, defaults, etc. If we look at the mortgage debt outstanding in the US, it is at the levels that it has been in 2007. You know what happened in 2008 and 2009. This means that the economy is driven by credit. And this means that if a house is priced, I don't know, half a million because a person can take a mortgage of 400,000 and pay so much. If interest rates go from 3% to 5%, what the person can pay for the mortgage is not 400,000, but becomes much, much lower. This means also that the value of the house, the asset prices that we see already very, very high are just created by the credit. They are not real. They are credit paper values and those things crash. And that's why it's very important to see, okay, what's the real value of the asset there? Not the paper value. What when that counterparty, so the counterparty risk is very important? Defaults. What's the value then of the asset? What happens if more counterparties default, default, default? You might think, oh, yes, this is the value, but it isn't a real value. It's the credit pumped value from the quantitative easing that we have been seeing in the last 10 years. So there are a lot of risks that we can take advantage if we are smart enough to do so. Number six, I have recently been reading Nassim Taleb's book Skin in the Game and one of the questions related to the market he asks, especially as he's written this book recently, is how big is the exit door? In January 2008, Societez General had a rogu trader that traded disastrously, had huge losses and they went on to dump 75 billion of those assets on the market to avoid further losses. Those, that dump created their whole loss because they didn't do it like in drips, they did it immediately and that sale in one day created the European stock market to drop 10%. One day 10% because of 75 billion. Now, that's the message here. 75 billion is just a small, small percentage of the 90 billion stock market global capitalization. But it shows you how much can 75 billion do in relation to stock prices because stock prices are set by those who buy and those who sell and those things can fluctuate very much, especially if there are a lot more sellers. And if you know that there are a lot more sellers, you simply won't buy. Why would you buy? You simply wait for lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower prices. And that's a risk and that's something, the volatility that will come that we have already seen some glimpses last month. That's something to take advantage. So, I'm going to continue discuss short about macro to give you some ideas to see how you think about, how you feel about going short. We'll discuss more in the micro, discuss then also why nobody should go short or at least 99% of you should not go short. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to comments and I'll see you in the next video.