 You're welcome back. We're very glad to know that you're still there and watching breakfast on Plus TV Africa. Right now, we're looking at the economic future of Nigeria under a new presidency. Yesterday, it was the swearing-in of Bola al-Metinobu Shiwaj. That's how his popular name is. He has taken the reins of leadership of Nigeria. And how will the economy fare with him at the helm of affairs? We're glad to have, joining us here, Mr. Ogbunna Okoku, an economist. Good morning and welcome to the program, Mr. Okoku. Yeah, thank you so much for having me. Okay. Well, you've heard all the promises that were done by the president yesterday after he was sworn in. And most of the things that he talked about will have to deal with economy because everything is related to the economy. Whether it's employment or moving from consumption to production. Those were not the exact words because someone has used those ones. But in small words, he said things like that. So the promises that he made, the GDP growing to 6% and all that. From your assessment, let's take a general picture. How do you think those things he talked about were going to be realizable? Okay, let me start by saying the reality is, yes, the growth of any economy is premised on actions or deliverables. You know, take the steps you're going to take as the leadership of a nation. Now, I also heard, at least it's the speech, it was very careful to say, yes, I'm not going to give you details. My team will come up because I was very interested in the economic plan of the new administration. But nevertheless, these things are realizable, but there are not things that can happen overnight. These are things, so by the time we see the details from the team, then we'll now know if it is the direction or the direction. He mentioned things like being able to have a single window where everybody would pay taxes when it comes to investors. He mentioned things like creating jobs and when it comes to the area of technology. He talked about reducing, increasing our GDP. All those things are not things that you can't actually do overnight. But looking at it, these things are realizable. It depends on first things first, being able to have the right manpower, the manpower that you're going to use, putting round pegs and round holes. His recruitment system will first of all tell me if he means what he's saying. Because I mean, anybody that is sticking over this economy today is going to have to do a lot of work because a lot has gone wrong. But a lot of things needs to be done both from the fiscal end and also from the monetary end. For us to begin to have the dollar, to reduce the dollarization of our economy first and first, you have to reduce the dependence on foreign goods and services. And those things we have to be able to domesticate some of our production, which means that you must have a very robust raw material supply strategy. Let's say it's beyond the Finnish goods. Even the industries that are here are still dependent on raw materials that come from outside Nigeria to be able to support their factories or their industries. So that also speaks to the fact that, yes, the machineries are constant, but those raw materials are things that you must do every now and then. So it means that you're spending a whole lot of money for an exchange, bringing in goods from outside Nigeria. So I mean, these are the things. And for you to be able to make that happen, when you want to have the dynamic raw material supply strategy, that means your infrastructure has to be good because there are raw materials that soon as you move them from the farm gate, they should be able to appear at the factory as fast as possible, which also speaks to the fact that just like he said, we need to deal with multiple taxation, trucks leave farm gate before they get to the factory gate, that the whole lot happens, local government will hold you, state will hold you, people that ask for tickets, a lot of things happen and those things actually cause delay because everything has to do with production, there has to be consistency. So pretty much, I mean, there's so much that has to be done, you need to oil the engine room of your bureaucratic system, which is the civil service, because these are the people who carry, who push policies from the team, from desk to desk, so you need to have, it's all, it boils down to the right leadership and then being able to have the right support for the private sector, because if you want the private sector to function very well, efficiency must be your work, and for efficiency to work, you need to have the right people plugged in the right positions, so that things must be given targets, because when you give them targets and then give them free hand to work, they will be able to do the right thing and then give you the actual resources that you need. Okay, sorry, let's go into specifics. He kick-started his administration by removing fuel subsidy. We wouldn't say that the previous administration removed it. No, the previous administration had fuel subsidy to the end, and he also promised that he was going to review the monetary policy and also look at the narrow redesign and all those things that are tied to what has been done, so which means anything that was not agreeable to his administration, he is bound to review. So if he let the fuel subsidy stay, that means he is the one who removed it, so that is out of the way. So now he has started this administration with removal of fuel subsidy. Make it make sense to us how this will be a very big advantage to Nigerians, at least in the short run, because even though a lot of people were applauding the removal of fuel subsidy, not everybody seems to understand the implications of removing this fuel subsidy and what it will do to the average Nigerian. Are you a supporter of this removal, the way it was removed, and why? Anyway, let me explain it to you. I feel that you present, I'm not sure if you did not remove fuel subsidy. What they did was to say, I have seen that. It's clear, the budgetary provision for the year 2020, the non-house subsidy, non-issue-based subsidy was not there. So what he is just trying to say, because everybody knows that this is not sustainable. So if he's not in the budget, so where is he going to get money from? So all these extra funds, because we're looking for money, borrowing money to support the NNPC to pay subsidy, I mean it's not going to work anymore. It is sustainable, it has never been sustainable. So making sense out of it will mean we need to find other ways. Thank God, the fact that the Dango theory refinery has started working helps a whole lot for the nation to go from this impotition of Finnish petroleum products. And that's a good sign for us. I'll call it that the act of what happened there. But be that as you may, whether you like it or not, because where are you going to get the funds from? Are you going to continue to borrow and then begin to increase the debt burden on the nation? Because servicing this debt is actually a burden. So in reality, what the president said is, it is not available, there's no funds available. So we can't continue to pay subsidy. So we can't borrow to pay subsidy. So in reality, everybody we need to bring it up. It is something that was going to happen. And nobody, no same festival wants to continue to pay subsidy, taking almost 80% of your income to import petroleum products. Who are you giving the money to? Who is going to use the money? I mean, who is going to use the fuel? So we need to do a complete diagnostic review of how many vehicles do we have in this country? How much consumption do we really consume? So until we have details, because these things are not so difficult. They are not rocket science. Because I mean, it's been dealt with a lot of corruption and all of that. So we need to have, I'm not carried out to even understand what the NMPC has been doing over the years with this subsidy funds. So it has to go. And Nigerians, we need to bring it up because I mean, the reality is here. But like I said, the question will be the dangote refinery working and then giving us enough petroleum product. And then again, it will also encourage a lot of people to invest in that space in the downstream sector of the economy. Then the other small refineries coming up in different places by us and others. So these things will help complement that and so forth. But in the immediate, it's going to bite a bit for us. Well, away with the old and in with the new, but it's still the same party. And one of the reasons why some Nigerians are not excited about this present administration is because it's coming from a source that they are not comfortable with. They do not trust a source that had given promises since 2015 up to now. And these promises were not fulfilled. However, these are two different persons. Buhari is different from Tunubu. Buhari totally different in Korea from Tunubu. Tunubu being an economist and then he has a vice president who had his time in the banking sector. Do you have any expectations or are your expectations raised in this team that we have coming in today? If they are, what are your expectations from this new team coming from the background that they are coming from? Henry, I was having a conversation with some people yesterday. I said, if there's anybody that have worked to become the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is President Bola Amir Tunubu. Nobody for over 20 years, this man sat down, plotted, designed a program, implemented the program and naturalized it. Anybody that must fail as the president is not Bola Amir Tunubu. He doesn't have the opportunity to fail. He has no excuse to fail. So the same way he plotted to become president is the same way I believe he's going to plot to bring us out of this dark hole that the country has been in. It might not be like he said, I'm a people that don't trust the system and all of that, but the reality is that Bola Amir Tunubu is now sworn in as the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. So be that as it is, we must all come together and work towards realizing a better Nigeria. The recruitment system will show, my people will say, the first step you take will show whether you're a good dancer or not as soon as the music starts playing. As soon as he begins to announce his cabinet, announce his team, everybody, at that point I will now tell you, yes, I am sure. But like I said earlier, whether we trust the system or trust, there are two different personalities here, President Buhari and President Amir Tunubu. Because everything has always fallen on the box stops at the table of the president's leadership with everything. Like I said, if you work so hard to become, not contesting so hard to become, there are two different things. If you work so hard and at the first shot, he got it. That means he planned it well and then he's here now, so he needs to deliver. I will not make excuses for him. I will not wait for him to give us an excuse at the end of his study. I was going to say something while you were talking because if we keep talking about the individuals and divorcing the individual from the system and from what is available in Nigeria to the leaders to perform, we may be making a mistake. Bola Amir Tunubu has prepared himself for over 20 years to be the president. The Buhari that just left was actually ahead of state before now. He was in charge of petroleum at some point when he was not the president or the head of state and then he contested three times to become president. So that gives him like 12 years of preparation before he became a president and worked for eight years and people still see him as someone who failed. It depends on where you stand anyway but the bulk of Nigerians think that he failed. So preparation is one thing, but the instruments, the tools available to you is another thing. And so we're asking what are the things available to Bola Amir Tunubu, the smart Bola Amir Tunubu who has become the president to succeed in Nigeria because Nigeria is different from Lagos. So what are these tools available to him to succeed? He has talked about industrialization. He has talked about creation of jobs and all that. He didn't tell us how he's going to create the jobs, whether everybody will become a policeman now or an army man or something, I don't know. But what are these tools, I keep asking, that are available to him to excel? Now the key thing is being able to... He had said something earlier. He said it depends on who is saying that Buhari failed. I don't believe that Buhari failed. Buhari just did his best. But in as much as I would say he did his best, because his best was not good enough because that is not failure in itself. It's because he believed in certain people, he believed in certain strategies, and those strategies did not work, did not give us as much. Because I mean, there's so much going on. A lot of things happened in that administration. Don't forget there was Koobi, there was recession, a lot of things happened. So I mean, I'm not trying to make excuses for President Muhammad Buhari. I'm just trying to say in essence, the tools are valuable. And then you also said Buhari, I really claim my statement, I say not contesting three times. That does not mean preparation. Okay? Now I'm saying that a man sat down in legacy, even before he became the governor of legacy, if you watch his antecedents. He has always been around from Nadeco, followed MKO, followed... You will see him at every point in time when you're discussing leadership in this mission. You will see him around somewhere in the corridor. So be that as he may. And he has progressed in, he got here. So what are the tools available to him? One thing nobody would take away from him is the fact that if you turn around, you'll see Buhari has raised people. He has people in different places, including the guys from when I just left. He, I mean, these are people who have worked on that. These are people who are able to do his talent hunt and then pull them close to himself. So in reality, a man who has capacity to identify talent and pull them to himself should tell you that the precedent in direction of him knows what he's looking for. So the realization will not be is what he's... We call it the leadership who called us his valuable position when it comes to leadership. The valuable position is able to deliver what we need at the nation. That's what I said. Once he begins to make the announcement, then Nigerians will know whether his valuable position will be in reality able to emancipate Nigeria from where we are. And don't forget there's also an issue of trust. The young people, which he also said, my cabinet will future a lot of young people and women. So that means he already knows what he wants to actualize. Not in promises. Yes, he has been in promises. So in two days to come, these things will begin to unfold. Like I said, as soon as he begins to mention his team, everybody will know, is this man able to deliver or not? Yes. Do you see a situation where, as part of his strategies, he may need to tinker with the Constitution to be able to achieve the level of success expected of a man of his pedigree. Some have said that Nigeria, as it is, cannot make progress, no matter who comes on board. I do believe in that. All I have always said is, until you are able to drive a particular gear to its maximum, changing gear may not be as useful. What do I mean by that? Yes, there are lacunas, there are issues with the Constitution. I mean, some of them have been taking care of some of the issues around the power sector. Now states can actually generate their power and then push out the same power, transmit the power to its people and generate its funds. But in reality, one of the biggest problems I've always seen that we have is the sub-nationals not being at power or working together with those at the federal level. Now, he also mentioned that in his speech, he said we're going to work with the sub-nationals to be able to actualize some of our dreams. So being a Democrat, being someone who knows how to never shit, because he would have gotten to where he is today if he didn't know how to negotiate. So being someone who knows how to negotiate power he should be able to negotiate strategies that will actually help emancipate the economy. So what am I trying to say here? If that conference must happen, if the reality, especially when we're, you know, my field in investment promotion, there's something we'll say, no project is domiciled in the air, they're all domiciled in states. So that to happen, you must have a good relationship with the state governors. You must have a good relationship with those at the local level. Because if they are not, if the efficiency you're trying to, you know, make happen at the federal level is not domiciled at the state or does not, you know, happen at the state, you have just wasted your energy. So you understand the state. That's why in his statement, he said foreign investors, not foreign and local, are going to have, you know, we are going to look into your issue. How are we going to be able to hand-hold investors to do business here? Because we're talking about a dollar. How do we get dollar? We can only end dollar. We can't print dollar. So the export market has to, we also have to boost the export market. We need to produce more. If that has to happen, we have to, you know, produce more and then standardization has to happen. So all the whole, we look at a papa or our wolf has to be taking care of immediately so there'll be free flow of goods and services out in and out of Nigeria. So these are the things I believe in the few weeks coming we'll be able to see those who are going to mand those observations or mand those agencies of government to help, you know, some of these things. And that much making, like I said, will happen between the federal and the states. Become a hydrum-headed monster in this country which would deter, which would this become like a clog in the will of the progress of any government. And he has said that he's going to strengthen the anti-corruption agencies to discourage corruption. Do you see him achieving that if he does not bring to justice those who have been seen and known to have been corrupt in this outgoing government? I won't even bore you by making a list of some of them that we know so obviously. But you see him having the political will seeing that there are people of his party to bring them to book and if he doesn't bring them to book because they are people of his party what sort of deterrent measures would he be able to establish and then how can he fight corruption if he's not seen to be fighting corruption? Okay, so let's let's look at, you know, your colleagues said something about yes, we should depart from discussing individuals and system. Now, if he's able to strengthen the anti-corruption agencies will simply mean allowing the system to work. Now, I don't see I don't see any presidents who you call on the phone your friend was held by the anti-corruption agencies to call them to come out. No. Like I said, the recruitment if the anti-corruption campaign or the strategy must work, we must allow the system to work. So the justice system which the reforms that happened in legal state while it was in legal state if those, I mean, we can see the justice system in legal state is what even the federal government tried to adopt. So those things are the kind of systems we're talking about if the leadership is allowed to do its work and for him to say I will strengthen that I mean he's going to, so anybody that is close to him should know that if you cannot do the time don't touch the crime. So the ones that have touched the crime you either go and do a plea bargain because there are lots of opportunities for you to do a plea bargain and return some of the stolen wealth and then go about your normal life if you refuse, these things will literally catch up with you. Don't forget one of the pioneer head the pioneer head of the anti-corruption could say in Nigeria Malam Nuhu Ribadu is very close to President Bola Ahmadini so that will also speak volumes because I mean he understands the issues and understand the problems around the anti-corruption campaign and the drive in Nigeria and knowing that that will also detail a lot of investors because you can't recall any investors and then the corruption will still be the order of the day in Nigeria so it's not about chasing those who just left the government but if the anti-corruption agencies do their job and they're giving target to make sure that they do their job, I mean the next will catch up on anybody who decides who has done something wrong or the other and then the justice system will take to balance as well okay let's look at the taxation he said something about unifying the taxation process and all that when he said these a lot of us did not understand when you talk tax that needs to be unified what what did he really mean when he said that which tax will be put together to make sure that there's a unified process of doing these things and which ones will be out of that net that other people can be collecting because you go to the marketplace you go to everywhere they're collecting taxes and multiple taxes so what did he really mean and how will he achieve this now taxation I mean everybody would tell you for the people in Lagos everybody says in Lagos everybody pays tax in Lagos every day you pay tax in Lagos and be able to achieve in Lagos was impossible because there was a big diagnosis analysis that was carried out in Lagos because I mean Nigeria is still we were still as low as our tax GDP is still very low less than 10% what that simply means a lot of people are not in the tax net now that also they give the fact that on some stupulous elements somewhere somehow still find a way to you know tax a lot of people who are doing their own little business I mentioned in my in my big initials that for you to move goods okay I have my own personal experience I was moving cassava stems from delta state to a quibomb state okay now for you to move the truck itself must have almost 32 stickers from different states in Nigeria different local government in Nigeria any route they pass those are multiple taxation so who are these people radio tax diet tax, different things all kinds of tax, produce tax who are all these people collecting these monies so you define our tax system will simply mean having be able to you know find out what investors face what are their problems do you have any issues because our aftercare aftercare service as a nation has been a bit slow because some of the agencies of government are supposed to be doing this are not doing it and there is this rivalry between different agencies of government especially asking for this so there has to be a single you know tax system now it brings more people into the tax net and then make streamlined taxes so there are a lot of taxes happening at the local level don't look at so it's beyond the company in contact no, there are statistics that are understandable you know where the money is going to but down there a loss is going on you will be shocked at what happens everywhere there are people who pay different kinds of taxes at the local level so until we are extreme and these things are things that investors have been complaining about so if we extreme begin to distill and then we will find a way to organize so if the tax we are receiving is going to the local government then and then with technology in place it will go directly to the local government accounts but it's not having out on the road people wearing some yellow uniform with reflective jackets stopping you on the highway collecting one thing or the other asking you from one sticker or the other it's really ridiculous you don't know how bad this thing is on T have experienced it talking to you about the cassava stems and these are things that don't stay so long they will hold you there if you don't pay these are youths there are places where if you go now, especially in the Niger Delta region you must pay what they call produce before you can move anything out of the farm gate and these are things that we need to be able to streamline provide leadership and make sure those things don't happen because these things are the things that you should pick and make sure that businesses don't work at this country some of the things some of us are expecting to see from this presidency is a reduction in wastages and leakages we've been hearing in the past of budgets of millions and billions for feeding for the first families the cost of governance being too high in this climate when compared to what happens in other climes and we are talking about how the masses are suffering high rate of inflation and then you hearing of presidents and vice presidents being given hardship allowances and all of that meanwhile the masses that are suffering they do not have any form of allowance for the hardship that they are going through so we are looking at the reduction of you know the cost of governance and blocking all the sources of leakages of wastages in reality I said earlier that efficiency in the system is very efficient which also means some of those leakages have to be blocked and blocking those leakages will be very useful now if you listen to the president's speech he said something that is very germane that nobody should overlook he said we are going to meet with compassion in our hearts that when you are compassionate as a leader the things that people face will actually touch you and like you said he is not giving details on how these things will happen but if you marry that with what his wife said in the service that was held a few days ago for the inauguration she said I am my family we are comfortable we are not coming to use my years money to feed ourselves we are already comfortable with our work so that means if they already have they are not interested in those things that is from what she said but now let me also say some of the times when some of this in the public space people are talking about how much money that is being spent at the aso villa and all of that people always forget that these people have guests every day they have they have to be entertained and you can just say we are hungry Mrs Michelle Obama we just have to make references sometimes it's unavoidable it's inevitable to sometimes make references to things that are working when comparing with things that are not working I do remember in an interview Mrs Michelle Obama did say every guest they entertained it came from their pocket so why do why should our own president in an economy that is struggling as Nigeria is struggling be spending taxpayers money entertaining their innumerable number of guests okay so some of this things maybe Michelle Obama I don't know if she was specific about the guests if we get if they are safe guests I don't think that Michelle Obama and her husband will take care of state guests from their pockets because the system provides if the Queen of England is coming to sorry the King of England is visiting America today are you trying to tell me that the president will use his money to take care of them no there are state apparatus that must take care of those the banquet that will happen so some of these issues but the reality is I'm not talking about personal friends coming to visit the president no I'm talking about some of these things this is the present of them alone coming to come and visit visit the Chinese government trying to come and forge good alliance with Nigeria you are looking at visiting and then you are telling me that the president will take money from this no there are state apparatus that's why the banquet hall is there because they have a budget to provide if they know the level of person that is coming that will speak the level of preparation that must be done so some of these things will be of God the kind of display that will be done all these monies are things like so some of these things until you are able to go into it and understand how it works so people will be misinformed about how this money so how much food can the president and his family eat in a day in reality can they eat more than 3 square meals they can't be eating they can't eat the same rice and all of that that's why Nigerians shudder that's why Nigerians shudder when they see the billions being budgeted for such things yes so that's what I'm saying I'm trying to be extreme the whole atmosphere everybody will understand that this money is not just going to because I'm a timigwan and she and everybody to eat but that's not how it works okay Obuna this is the issue Obuna when she asked the question she said cost of governance that was the the Board of Contention cost of governance the president didn't say anything about cutting the cost of governance for instance whether their family is comfortable or not every year in the budget there will still be a budget for utensils in the government house what happened to the one of previous year every year there will be budgeting money a lot of money that you'll be asking yourself like you just said how many square meals does the president eat and how many eats are in the presidential villa and if you take the instance of El Zakzake for instance the money that the federal government said they were voting to feed someone in prison like a millionaire or so per day and then the told us the vice president alone would have they told us also that prisoners must take 14,000 Naira a day for feeding and you know if you've ever visited the prisons you'll know what it is and then how many does the president need how many does the aid of the president need you know all these things he said nothing about cutting the cost of governance and people have always been complaining the cost of governance in Nigeria is humongous and if we are struggling as a nation something definite should be done about it and Nigeria suspected him to say something about reviewing some of these things that are worrisome to Nigerians so do you think he will have the political will to cut the cost of governance to cut how much maybe the senators are paid maybe the people in the presidency are paid maybe the political big weeks are paid to make money to free up some money for the development of infrastructure paying of debts and making life bearable for the people of Nigeria asking does he have that political will to cut the cost of governance now I try to you know sometimes I like to put space to discussions because yes I understand I knew where your colleague was going to when she asked the question that it was about you know cutting costs cutting the cost of governance that is very high now in reality whether we like it or not those are the things that we must do and if you remember the Oransai reports which had was supposed to become a right paper and then the implementation and all that now it's beyond you know how much senators are paid how much this person is paid some of these funds some of these funds yes there are such three institutions that have the powers to you know like the wages and the commission some commissions on wages those are the things that is supposed to be a job but be that as it may you can't say because monies those are not the areas if you ask me I would not pay attention to salaries to you know political appointees so much as as paying attention to the civil service the window of monies disappearing monies income that is supposed to go into the government coffered empty people's pockets I would pay more attention to those because how much is it let's even look at the salaries of everybody that is a political appointee how much is it compared to the amount of money we are looking at so for me I understand that like the key word is efficiency in the system when you have an efficient system it will be able to give you where your issues are okay you understand okay how much do I need to expand on ABCD either way let's say for insurance if you have a good health insurance system that is working some of those monies that you spend on health issues around those who work for you those things are already taken care of because as far as you pay your premium like I said we have to do a detailed work these are the things that have to be done thank you I wish we had more time but we have run out of time and would like to thank you so much for coming on the program Chris why am I calling you Chris thank you so much for coming on the program and let me also try to correct today if there are money coming development tax funds not economic money coming development tax funds economic development expats oh good I have spoken as such thank you so much okay that was economic development expats talking to us and it is the home stretch of the breakfast this morning but before we go we have the court of the day it tells us that the past government was not useless or the new government will not be useless just because it's not what we want it to be and the court is from Thomas Edison he said in his words just because something doesn't do what you planned it to do doesn't mean it is useless so remember that always and just before we sign off and say bye bye remember a lot of people are panic buying some filling stations may be selling even at 600 Naira as we have seen but we have also heard from Melikeari that there is enough fuel and Nigerians to stop panic buying so the hardship should not start today maybe sometime in the future because there is enough fuel for Nigerians until we meet again tomorrow my name is Nyambu and I am Maureen do enjoy the rest of your day and do keep a date with us tomorrow