 Welcome traders to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally, before we get going here. As always, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, notably that the views and opinions expressed by me during this presentation are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Okay, we are going to get going here in just a minute. We're going to run through the trade plan for the New York session. If you have any questions during this presentation, feel free to drop them into the chat. I will come back to them as and when we have time depending upon the market action. So let's review the trade plan. I would also direct your attention to the Tick Mill Futures and Options Group where on a daily basis I share my trade plans for the London and New York sessions. We also have a trader chat function that you're free to join. Through the trader chat, I share institutional research and insights from Tier 1 investment banks and trading desks. As retail traders, essentially what we're trying to do is write the co-tails of these bigger players in the market. So it's useful to know how they're positioned and where they see opportunities developing in the markets and where the flow and sentiment is because these are the guys moving the big blocks of money around that we want to try and capture some of those moves. The trader chat, I also share real-time trading updates, my personal P&L trades that I'm taking with a very keen focus on risk management. As I tend to really want to drive the attention to risk management as opposed to profit targets and trade outcomes because it really is in risk management. I'm focusing on that. I'm focusing on discipline trading, a consistent approach to the markets that will ensure your long-term success as a trader. So feel free to request access to the group. You can see the email address. I'll just post it into the chat there one second. You can request access. All you have to do is share some contact information to avoid bots joining the group and flooding it with useless information. Let's take a look like I say at today's trade plan before we get going here. We've just had data out. We've got Lagarde speaking at the moment. She's standing by what she said on raise. They're basically on whole data dependence and that's put a little bit under the dollar here. We have seen an uptick in terms of the futures from the lows we saw. We've got PC inflation data out tomorrow. My current trading position, my current trading book, I'm short from yesterday. I've got an average fill from 49.25. I managed to scale off that position on the set off last night. So I've essentially got a risk-free short running from 49.35. I also have a long position running. I managed to scale some of that this morning. So I'm essentially running a risk-free long position from 48. That should read 82, not 92. The short position is potentially a swing position. I'll talk you through my rationale for that shortly. Moving into the cash session now. My lien is long against the Daily Ball Bear Zone. The Daily Ball Bear Zone reference down here is 48.90 to 48.82. So whilst that remains supportive, I'm looking for potentially further upside here. Noted that participation and range in terms of the overnight session is on the low side. We're currently trading above the overnight volume point of control, which is 49.01. But today's volume point of control is below yesterday's, which is 49.17. We have an expected range today of 49.27 on the upside and 48.70 on the downside. These are key reference points that I use on a daily basis. Two Sigma volatility events above and below last night's closing price are 48.42 to the downside and 49.55 to the upside. We also have weekly projected range resistance 49.66. So what that's telling me is any move up into that 49.50, 49.60 area would be a stretch and 95% of the time on a daily basis, the market will close above or below the two Sigma volatility support resistance. And as I said, we've got that added confidence of 49.66 being a weekly projected range resistance. So if today we hold our current lows and extend to the upside, I would pay very close attention to how price trades into that 55 to 66 area has potential meaningful resistance for the week. And we are getting somewhat late in the week, Thursday now, I think it's Friday. So if we test into those areas, that could cap the near term upside for these markets. So let's pull up the multi-time frame charts here. And you'll see the reason for the swing trades in terms of the futures here. We've traded into this weekly trend line resistance. So here on the weekly chart, we tagged that yesterday, and that's where we sold off from. And if we hold that, you can see the last test up into the weekly projected range resistance, you can see the similarities in terms of the price structure as we got into that area. We tested it, got a sell-off, then consolidated within that range for two or three days before getting a pretty meaty move to the downside. Now, I'm not suggesting that that's what's definitely going to happen here, but I'm positioned to potentially take advantage of that if that's the case. So if we are to replicate, as I say in history, Ryan's, if not repeat, so if we replicate that type of price action, we'd look for the highs to hold consolidation and then a potential rollover post that consolidation. But that's on a daily time frame, and today we're focused on intraday opportunities. So here on the four-hour time frame, this is a chart I share via the futures group. I've got the levels mapped out in terms of the two-sigma volatility resistance up there at that 49.55. It's also weekly R2, 49.58. We have the expected range resistance 49.27. We've got our daily bull bear zone, daily range support, and then that two-sigma support. Now, that two-sigma support to the downside, that 48.44 coincides with, sorry, 48.42 coincides with our weekly bull bear zone. So if we do get a pullback into that area again, I'll be paying attention, intraday looking for divergences on the intraday charts. I'm going to pull those up in a minute. Walk you through how I use those and the tools I use to execute trades on an intraday time frame, but certainly pay attention. If we do get a pullback 48.44, 48.42, 48.34, our key levels I'm paying attention to on the downside. So let's pull up the intraday charts and we can see we are trading above yesterday's midpoint, which is 49.11. 49.17 is yesterday's volume point of control. So positioned currently looking at the long side, we are trading in the upper half of yesterday's range now. When we're trading within the range, obviously within the prior days range, there is the potential for chop. We prefer to trade away from ranges as opposed to within them, but we've got some key reference points as we get going here. The value area high from the overnight session is 49.09. This blue line is the full session volume waste average price. So when the future is open last night in New York, this is telling us the volume waste average price for the session. So I've been looking initially at any pullbacks back into this 49.04, 49.07. This gold line is giving us the midpoint for the current trading session. So 49.07, 49.04, the value area high 49.09. So any pullbacks into this area, I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to put a look on the long side, targeting move up into test the prior yesterday's highs at 49.33. And if we get through there, then we have the further upside targets to play for in terms of the 49.50s to 49.60s. So that's the bullish scenario that I'll be watching. The bearish scenario would be that we fall through the overnight volume point of control. So 49.00. It's going to be a key reference point as we head into the cash session there. If we get through there, then we're looking at a retest of the Glovex lows, which are 48.93, and back into yesterday's lows, 48.89. And if we start to really lose support there, then I'll be tracking a potential equality objective to the downside. So let me just go back to the arrow in the chart here. So we have the ascending trend channel support coming in at that 48.89. So that's going to be a key reference point if we move down into that area. Let me just remove these for you for now. So if we hold the current highs and we start to see responsive selling into the open of the cash session here, let me just show you another downside target that would be in play. So an equality objective versus the swing highs that we have at 49.20. We'll actually put us back down right into the lows of the weak here into that 49.75 area. And potentially from there, we could see a pop, but then another leg to the downside. So it's going to be key to see whether or not we get some early bids here in the market. If we don't, we have some reference points that we're paying attention to on the downside. So we are two minutes out from the open. I'm just going to grab some water. And like I say, if you have any questions, feel free to drop them into the chat box and I'll cover them off as and when I can. I will alert you to any new positions that I initiate during the this opening 30 minutes or so of the cash session in New York. Okay, 30 seconds to the cash open. In terms of the indicators, the indicator pains here, this is the Delta, the lower pain. Delta is essentially a measurement of buying and selling pressure that I used for confirmation and non-confirmation potential entries. I'll walk you through that in real time if we get an opportunity. The pain above once it populates is the tick. The tick is a measurement in every woman's iteration of how many stocks are ticking up versus how many stocks ticking down on New York Stock Exchange. I use tick extremes as potential entries again on how we are set up. Though we have bullish a advanced decline line, this pain at the top here references the amount of stocks advancing versus the amount of stocks declining on the New York Stock Exchange. When it's above zero, that's bullish and when it's below zero, it's bearish. That's essentially giving you a look under the hood of what's happening below the index level with the constituent stocks in the market. We also have the next pain below is the breadth. That's the amount of money flow, the volume going into stocks moving up versus stocks moving down. Again, if that's above or below zero, that's going to give us a confirmation for bullish or bearish price action. If we can make new highs here above the Globex highs with confirmation from the Delta, I'm going to look at adding to my long position currently long from 48.92s here. I'm going to look at adding and seeing if we can get a run up to yesterday's highs, all-time highs, that 49.33 area. Let's just see how this sets up. Okay, just letting these opening rotations come through. Like I say, if we hold support here at the value area high, so the value area high represents the top of 70% of the volume that's traded in the current session, so it's actually the support at the moment. If we can take out the Globex highs here and we get a new high in terms of Delta, then I'm going to look like I say to add longs here. We've got positive AD line, positive breadth. That's going to be the play here out of the gate. And in terms of stop, I initially used a 10-point stop on any trade I take, which is equal to 1% of my account's equity. And more often than not, what I'm looking to do in terms of trade management is scale out half of my position, plus five or minus five, and then hold the rest. So that gives you an idea in terms of how I manage my positions. There's a few who intend to follow along here. So we're seeing a new high in the Delta. So if I can get in here, we're looking for a move through 21, and then initial stop will be 11. Delta pushing higher. You'll see that confirmed on the break with new highs. And then I will add a long exposure here. I guess so we're looking for a push higher then through the 33, looking for 45, then 50, 55, and 66 as weekly projected range resistance. So we're going to risk 10 with the potential of at least three or four to one risk reward developing here. But what we'd like to see as well here to support the upside is the volume point of control to rotate up into the upper distribution of the overline. You can clearly see we have two distributions are lower and an upper distribution. Support on the upside would see that volume point of control shift into the upper distribution. That would add support to the bullish thesis here. So the bullish consolidation, can we break the highs here with Delta confirmation to go long through 4921? Is the current plan running? If you see it, you're going to see that. That's the first one. Because obviously, the DCB is making the difference. trading above the developing value area high, which is now up at $49.14. Like I said, we really like to see a rotation higher in terms of the volume point of control as additional confirmation. So we have a double top in place now, which looks vulnerable. I'm not seeing a sharp rejection currently. I did see some initial selling, but we're consolidating within that opening swing there in terms of the Mag7 bullish Tesla, obviously taking a bath after it missed earnings last night, a bit of a car crash in terms of the earnings call with Elon throwing his choice out of the pram, talking about walking away, so Tesla remains under pressure. But the others, Apple rotating around the flatline and video Microsoft Google or positive Amazon, a little bit weak meta up. So they're supportive and we've got yields pulling back here, across the curve to 10s and 30s are down. So we are set to look for a push higher here. We're looking to break these highs until I get 45 as the next upside objective. And it's not a start to the economy, it's a standard interest in one bit. But in the next week, we're gonna have a price increase, and as I said, and in the end, it's a little slightly larger, not as nice, but a little larger than itself. That's what it looks like to the emotion. Right. So it's very up, but they're slow and they're too one-wise, and it's a daily chaos. We are having an existing age of surf, training, but now it's not so much contributing to the economy. So it's a little non-settling, it's a coconut Okay, so we are looking for 49-21 to engage on the long side, I was saying yesterday's highs at 33, then on to 45s, positive breadth, positive AD line, ticks are, we haven't had a negative tick yet, so plenty of pressure on the upsides, one minute, M1 deltas are pushing highs. Justifications here, once we wait for this potential long to set up and confirm the growth, just a hundred points, a thousand questions as we sort of have a little bit of time. So seeing a little bit more consolidation, we're still looking constructive here for now, we're trading above the full session, mid full session, VWAP, those would be the first warning signs of weakness if we start to see prints below this area here, which is the view lines, the full session, volumetric storage base, the goal line full session midpoint, so that would be the first warning sign that the long set up was invalid, but really like I said, once we hold the overnight value area, sorry the overnight volume point of control which comes in at 4900, I'm still looking for an ultimate push higher, I don't really want to initiate at the volume point of control because we're right back into the majority of the trades from overnight, that's likely to be a chop zone, so I'm waiting for that to push higher with the deltas confirming to take this one higher if that trade plays out. Nothing to do on the short side until we take out yesterday's low, and then what I've been looking for would be a move down that then retests and rejects yesterday's low, and the Globex, I've used that as my reference point, so we'd have 4889 to 4893, so I'd look for a breakdown and pull back into that area that gets rejected, and then looking to play the break of the lows with the deltas making new lows as confirmation, and certainly at that stage I'd also want to see either the AD line or breadth turning negative and as an additional confirmation that we've exhausted the near-term upside and need to see some further price discovery to the downside, and as I referenced earlier we have that 74 as an equality objective if we hold the 4920s, but the downside scenario isn't in play at the moment whilst we hold those reference levels. Any questions? So anything coming through at the moment? I must be doing a reasonable job of explaining what I'm saying, which is good. We're holding above yesterday's mid, a midpoint of yesterday's trading range, which is the 4911, you might see this volume point of control rotates up into the 4916s, as I said the other situation obviously is that we're trading within yesterday's range, which more often than not will make make progress a little bit slower. Okay there isn't anything else to add at this stage, I don't see any questions coming through, so I won't just hold on here for the sake of it. The trade that I'm looking for is to engage on the long side through 4921, I'm going to see the deltas make new highs, confirming that move, we've got positive ad line, positive breath, the ad line is declining somewhat, but we're at elevated levels, tick is now rotating around the midpoint, which is indicative of this chop that we're seeing, that's my trade on the long side, so if we get through 4921 I want to engage on the long side, the alternative scenario is a breakthrough, yesterday's lows and a pullback to act as resistance to engage on the short side, targets are going to move down to 4970s would be the bearish trade, okay I said I'm running shorts from yesterday, potential swing trade versus yesterday's high, and I have lows from the overnight session which are risk-free as well, I'm just looking to add that long exposure for upside targets, I'll just reiterate those, there'd be a retest of yesterday's highs at the 33, then the 45, then the 55, and 66 would be a test of weekly projected range resistance, the 55 is a two sigma volatility resistance, so I'd be certainly looking to lock in profits on a 55 test and potentially play a countertrend short from there, if we get divergences developing on any test of the 55, we're just ticking up a bit here, so I'll hold see if we get to call this live here on top of the hour, so let's see if we can get this one confirmed the other thing we don't want to see is we don't want to see a ticket string print on the entry because that more often than not, programmatic trading models will use that as a profit-taking signal, so we want to see price making a new high without a new high ticket of the day I'm excited that we can make people share a new new plan because we want to remember that time we used to, it was always, it was always when I looked at it, I actually was sitting there sitting there speaking to each other on the side of the speakers, they're not much doing this because of the patience of the people that we have, they need to know how to get out there, but we don't want the taxing still to fall on the future, obviously it's not going to be used to that point, it's not going to be used now, plus that, I want them to learn how to get anywhere. Okay, the solution continues, okay look I'm going to wrap up the live stream here, you have the plan for the session, you know what the trade levels are and the confirmations I'm looking for, so best of luck with that for those of you who are in the TickMill Facebook group, I will be updating the trades via the TraderChat through the initial balance, which is the opening hour of trade in New York, so it takes 3 to 3.30 UK time. And that concludes this week's stream. As always, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.