 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Fundamental and technical Forex and gold analysis if you're new or warm welcome to you and if you're returning welcome back And don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues As it helps the YouTube algorithm get this video, you know recognized and ranked Higher and gets really the quality process of how, you know, we trade it trading 180 with fundamentals as well as technicals out there to those that really need it so getting into the week ahead and Zooming in let's do the week ahead so earning season, of course We're not really concerned about that but we are concerned about what central banks are doing So our central banks in the US and Canada will be deciding on monetary policies So a big week this week things have probably Their monetary policy has probably been priced in but I guess talking about Canada just quickly There's there's an expected surprise hike or there's a potential for a surprise hike So if definitely they hike this week, then you know, that should be positive for the Canadian dollar elsewhere flash PMI surveys for the US UK eurozone in Japan and Australia will be watched as well as fourth quarter GDP updates from US Germany France, Spain, South Korea and the Philippines So the US one will be definitely watched because it's really the first fourth quarter readings. So this really kind of sets the tone and the pace really for For the US economy and whether it, you know grew or kind of flatlined or even the Kind of shrank in there that the fourth quarter. So let's see any positive data will be positive for the dollar other key indicators to follow include US PCE prices inflation and Australia New Zealand fourth quarter inflation data. That's definitely going to be watched as well. So inflation You know across the board. So let's get into the technicals and a bit more in-depth fundamentals and starting off As we always do on the dollar index and the dollar index are just a measure of dollar strength Against the basket of currencies now I've left The analysis on I guess this week just to show you guys You know what was happening last week or what I was saying last week of my analysis and What actually played out? Of course, this is not me predicting as far as me saying that this is going to happen The trading is just about likelihoods, right? What is the likelihood of something happening and whether you know, we're buying at bargain prices or a potentially bargain price That I'd highlighted this area For those of you that know and are in the group as a CPR demand zone is a bit different from your daily demand zones Not all demand zones are the same And this is one that I'd highlighted the last Analysts I did you can go back to last week's analysis to have a look at this as well or look at the The analysis I did last week anyway, and you can see that price is pretty much accurately pinged off of that level I think they might have been Yeah, the probably prices were Already on their way higher, but generally, you know the dollar we would I was looking to buy the dollar anyway And this is just a bit of confluences to reasons Technical confluences as to the reason why I'm looking to buy the dollar, but the fundamental reason Is that the Fed is seeing taking a step towards March rate hike? So You know just a short paragraph is Jerome Powell and his fellow Federal Reserve Policymakers are expected to signal their first interest rate hike since 2018 paving away for a March move as the US central bank tries to extinguish red hot inflation. So Rate hikes are generally generally positive for a currency and I use the word generally and typically In the long term in the medium to long term in the short term, of course, nobody knows what may happen so Let's get rid of this analysis So really what you know if you're looking to buy the dollar From a daily demand zone perspective You're looking at you know some zones and this is probably going to be one of the zones as confluence because the dollar index You're just looking really more from a from a confluence perspective So if prices come back into that demand zone and give some positive price action Then what you're looking to do is try and look to this is not necessarily trading advice or you know Financial advice, but what I would look to do I can only tell you what I'm doing is looking for Confluence with you know dollar crosses like the doll again dollar Swiss right to buy the dollar so dollar at the moment Has come up into a bit of a supply zone. We can see all this area some quite a wide area of supply here so Let's have a change of color so that whole area of theirs and it's a wide area of supply But again, why would we why would I look for you know supply zones to trade if I'm looking for buy trades But if you are looking at that that level to try and short the dollar because of course anything can happen And maybe some confluence there you do also have in alignment with that a level of support and resistance So support and resistance Traders would be in a round here So you could see prices pull back but pull back just basically means that you can buy the dollar for cheaper That's the direction really that I'm looking to Trade some not I'm personally ignoring any supplies I was waiting for pull backs if prices go a bit higher than that will be Demand zone that I'll be looking for as well as that would turn into Some demand right there So my directional bias is to the long side if you are looking to short the dollar You're probably looking at somewhere I would say around the highs Yeah, as the dollar was expensive around here expensive here as well Right, so if it was expensive at these areas then potentially it could be expensive here Although the more times a level is touched the weaker it becomes so we could see prices go to the upside But my bias is just looking for pull backs on the dollar for more buying opportunities Right, so That's the dollar index looking at the dollar yen and The dollar yen again from last week's Analysis, you know, we did have this zone here and then prices actually bounced off of that zone we had good 157 pips to the upside My personal I do want to get involved in this and I'm looking to get involved in this if prices can come down This week, so for example, going back to the dollar index if prices start to come down like that Then you should see potentially the dollar come down and I really like this one thirteen one twelve fifty area as a as a nice buy and on our fundamental analysis spreadsheet from from the Traders group private mentoring group that I I run The the dollar yen has probably one of the biggest divergences right, so we've got one versus eight Strengths our versions of seven, which is a which is a high divergence buying the dollar and selling the yen for me So with that You know my bias is definitely long trades just looking for really Buy trades. So just let me just clear this last week's analysis up So from a again a daily demand zone perspective, we've got this whole area here Demand right and again, I think from a support resistance Level within safety breaking up that area there. There is a bit of an area here as well that looks like it could Bounce off of them. We also did have some support resistance in here, which prices did obviously bounce off of so if this Doesn't hold and the financial institutions want to buy more dollars for cheaper than I think these levels in here Gonna be the areas to potentially look for for buying opportunities in the lead-up to potential Fed rate hike if they are, you know, if they are looking to Hike rates, which I think the market is expecting them to so again just because prices are going lower You know, it means that the fail and the financial institutions can buy the dollar for cheaper Before obviously understanding that, you know in the next, you know year or so, you know Maybe prices of the dollar should be typically somewhere around here and there have been forecasts for actually 120, you know, we were looking in the Bank analysis in the group from certain banks and one bank was forecasting I think 120 so within the near future say near future, but within the next maybe three to six months or so So This is looking like a buy in a nice buy opportunity if that if that target is met Looking at the dollar Swiss the dollar Swiss. I Missed out on this trade, but I'm looking again at buying I think this is gonna be a really nice area to look for buy trades for those of you who again are watching this But are in the group There is a stop-hunt around these lows potentially coming if Prices do pull back a bit more Beyond that level or you're looking at buy trade in and around here All right from a strength divergence perspective fundamental analysis spreadsheet. We've got the dollar again number one being the strongest and the The quote currency being number six, which is probably one of the weakest. So there's definitely a higher strength divergence there So for me again, my bias is to the long side and again just from a An interest rate policy perspective, you know buying the dollar makes sense as well So for me just looking for buy trades in and around this area Maybe slightly just lower or if prices can come down to this Somehow come down to this 90 5 level to 92 level Then I think that's going to be absolutely wonderful buying opportunities To get involved in that trade moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD again for me fundamentally Looking at the spreadsheet. I think The dollar CAD is it hasn't got the best strength divergence for me it's three one versus four and But I do think that I Think the whoa, I think I know that the market is is pricing in a Dollar CAD lower price. I think they're pricing in maybe 120 120s at some point this year, which is somewhere down here. I think that that is the possible target and Yeah, so I think the path of the distance is to the low side So, you know many trades might be thinking well if they why the if you're fundamental analysis spreadsheet is forecasting A higher dollar than why the banks forecasting a lower dollar and it's really because of monetary policy And again, it's something I teach in my in my group But you have to also understand that there are times where a four right and lower a lower ranked currency can actually increase in strength and and a Number one can actually decrease in strength and again, it's relative But to the point of monetary policy the the Bank of Canada are actually seen as being more aggressive in hiking rates than the federal reserve So if anything probably looking at, you know a pull back to that nice supply zone if you are looking to get involved in this as a short trade As a path of these resistance It's basically, you know the central bank who is the stronger out of the two or you seem to be stronger out of two Personally, I prefer divergences where you've got strong versus weak But if you are looking to trade this apparently the Path of these citizens is to the downside But again, this is a harder trade because you've got two stronger currencies fighting Fighting it out and batting it out. So we'll redo this demand zone quickly. It's not she can see why there is a demand zone There decent demand zone So if prices do come back down into the zone and you will be a buyer of the US dollar Then that's where you want to buy trades if you're looking for continuous cell trades on a Canadian dollar then the 1.264 area is going to be the area to look for short trades the Pound dollar and the dollar we say again last week Looking at that area as potential short trades and look what happened pretty much the prices came down It was due for a pullback anyway, because there was really no pullback as prices will go and higher And it kind of went from you know, how many pips went from We're gonna move of about 4% without any major pullback. So you're gonna have to have profit taking Etc. But what we see now, let me just I guess get rid of Some of the analysis from last week What you're seeing now is prices really kind of pull back into you know the a deeper pullback and especially as the The US dollar is looking to high crates But so are actually the UK and we did get a bounce off at this level So I did say that there was gonna be potential for a level the top of that demand zone to react and it did You know by How many pips so bounced off there and probably went about hundred 88 pips. Sorry about 88 pips. So But obviously that level hasn't held held and the reason why I fundamentally is because you probably had obviously did have The UK retail shocker unlikely to throw the Bank of England of course So December UK retail sales plunge and looks a lot like a post black Friday pullback Even if Omicron has had some effect to still the outlook for the retail this year looks tricky as ongoing rotation back to services continues and disposable incomes are squeezed and There was there was something I was meant to read but it's true with retail data. I did read something here Was it again? I can't remember what I was meant to have meant to read those there was something in here that that was actually quite positive But the point being is that this is probably just seen as a bit of a blip, right? So it's not seen as a as a permanent trend and and so again The Bank of England are unlikely to be thrown off course of for hiking, right? So I think the negative sentiment around retail sales is probably going to pull push prices to the downside Especially if the the Fed are looking to high crates at some point There is a bit of a level here from a support and resistance zone as well within that demand zone And you've also got a zoom in out. I think you've got a bit of a level here as well So if you are looking to buy the The pound versus the dollar again, you've got two currencies that Or buy it yet by the sorry the pound versus dollar You've got two currencies that again quite strong So it's not necessarily the the the best, you know pair to look for when it comes to a strength divergence Bringing that over and it's basically one versus two. So it's it's a harder trade for me You do have some some more supply in and around these zones we just bring that down a little bit and Also as well you've got a supply zone as it's right on top of there So again, just in case you are looking to trade any pullbacks Then you're looking at that's going to be the first pullback to look for a short trade If you're buying the the US dollar right there or right there, but again, not really a pair that I'm I'm really interested in moving on to the Euro-dollar and the euro-dollar again last week's Analysis looking at short trades many traders got in short in the group on here And again final targets are probably around the 112 area or 112 fifties This could go down to again. We already know that the That the Federal Reserve are looking to high crates, which is generally positive and but what's going on in Europe? Where's the divergence? ECB's Matt Kluve says inflation slowing no rate hike in 2022 so euro area inflation to stick above 2% throughout the year and Vigilant on second round effects iris central banker says so even they think that inflation should slow in 2022 as Supply chain blockages and energy prices recede Though it's likely to remain at more than 2% in the euro area for the rest of the year According to European Central Bank governing council member Gabrielle Matt Kluve so from the perspective of the Euro-dollar again just looking at the the ranking we got euro-dollar Strength divergence five the base currency is six which is weak And the quote currency is one so from that perspective Again looking at Shorts for me dollar being number one and that's not to say that prices are going to go down straight away Like it doesn't you know No one knows what's gonna happen in the short term, but over the medium to long term where the longer term trend is being Driven by the fundamentals. This is just basically a pullback into hidden supply And then we had you know a bit of a sell-off so prices could pull back to this zone If it does then you can buy the dollar for a cheaper again in case you missed out on this, right? But ultimately the path the probabilities of you know the all the likelihood of the trend Continuing to the downside as as traders and investors start to buy the dollar over the euro is to the downside So any pullbacks to supply are buying opportunities If you do want to be a buyer of the euro and there has been a talk of the euro potentially strengthening In fact really this whole area is going to be a bit of demand Not pretty but that's just the way it is. But within that you've got an area of things some Port there probably a little bit of support there as well But if you do want to be a buyer Those are the zones that you're looking for you know buy trades potentially and also as well If you're looking to take profit at some you know some areas these might be decent areas to take profit if you are short in Or short from here Moving on to the Aussie dollar and the Aussie dollar again last week We were looking at this area here, but it's potential shorts and you can see pretty much again what happened from a strength divergence perspective you've got the Aussie dollar, you know, it's saying this is pretty much a sell strength divergence of four, which is okay and base Coverage C, which is the Australian dollars five versus one five being weaker and And obviously the dollar being the strongest so from that perspective, you know pretty much what we've seen this week is You know some short trades You know any any pullbacks into you know supply are are really where you want to look for potential Buyers the Australian dollar there was an interesting one because there are several banks. I think we looked at I Think it was HSBC We're looking at they were saying that the Australian dollar could be a potential buy at some point this year depends on what the Reserve Bank of Australia Do with their monetary policy And then there was a company another bank that said that you know to keep an eye on on on the Australian dollar So again, you know, there was a pullback this week on the Thursday That would have been a nice potential sell if you were looking at, you know, obviously trading in the direction of the fundamentals, so Yeah, that was where we were this week From a demand zone perspective and again understanding why would you would want to buy the Australian dollar against the The US dollar when when when, you know, there's pretty much no need really or there's no monetary policy Supporting an Australian buyer at the moment I think the path of these resistance should be to the downside But if any pullbacks do happen then these areas are really the ones that you want to look for potential You know sell trades to buy the dollar, especially as they're in that in that hiking cycle. So That's where you know the path of these resistance should be You know going forward until we do get the RBA Statements as to what they're doing with monetary policy and also the data has to support that narrative and Finally gold and gold You know making its way higher Risk of sentiment really coming into play and this is due to the Russia and Ukraine Tensions and I did make a video this week on the Russia Ukraine tensions regarding how I trade risk off Not specifically getting into what's happening in Russia Ukraine, but just how to how how I approach risk-off trading But you know gold is starting to react now to risk-off sentiment and you can see pretty much You know where if you are trading risk off where you know You should be looking to potential for potential buyers now if the if the risk-off sentiment does dissipate and it could You know at any moment, you know, there could be a bit of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the US Etc and and NATO and that then and risk-off dissipates then you know, you might see gold start to Fall and especially as the US dollar is actually looking to hike rates as well. So that could be a Play as well. So but for me, I think if you're looking to probably sell gold That would be a nice technical area looking for buyers on gold probably look for somewhere around these lows Around here the 1760 area as the first area I would look for potential buyers. There is actually in fact a bit of an area here Decent zone probably know a time frame where you've got a bit of a CPR zone right there For those of you know CPR right there and then that'll be a decent buy I think but other than that Putting the mixed picture we are heading towards more of the recent most recent expensive area for gold That was definitely a bargain area for gold. So Depends on really kind of risk sentiment When it comes to gold and really what the dollar is doing as well. Anyways guys, that's it for this week I hope you enjoyed the analysis and don't forget to also check out the interviews I've done with the members in the discord group the mentoring Discord group and where I go over, you know, they're they're trading their results and how I've turned You know, they're trading a round and yeah, if you do want to become a member Unfortunately, we're closed for now, but we should be opening in maybe mid spring But I'll update the the website then so check out trading 180 for any kind of updates But mid spring will be the next intake anyways guys take care and I will speak to you all soon