 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrade.com weekend update show. Everybody is doing great. I want to wish everybody a really great day off. Okay, awesome day off. It hasn't even started yet, but I'm very, very happy. I actually got to sleep in a little bit late this morning, like 8.30 is actually sleeping in when you're waking up 6, you know, 6.30, 7 o'clock every single day. So it's actually nice to get a couple of hours extra sleep. And today I'm literally going to do nothing. I think we're taking the kids for you guys in the Tri-State area to Liberty Science for them to kind of do some things there. Other than that, I'm just going to relax the whole day. I'm doing absolutely nothing. And it's such a necessary healing process because again, we talk about this all the time, but the amount of mental equity that we burn, okay, you don't even need to lose money. The amount of equity that we burn is so hard to get back that these days off that we actually have to get centered, kind of soothe the soul a little bit, are so necessary. And for all you guys who are just trading your first year or two years and you're salivating over, is it Monday yet? Give it some time. Give it some time. If you're fortunate enough to be in this business and really get your foundation rock solid. If you're fortunate enough to be in this business 5, 10, 15, 20 years, you'll really start to appreciate those days off. So hopefully you guys are having a great start of your present as day weekend day off. So see you on the field tomorrow. But let's talk about something that many traders don't talk about. The reason main focus for these updates and these weekend updates that I do is speak from a trader's point of view. You can see the headlines, right? The headlines, China talks, blah, blah, blah, market strong. That's great. Nobody cares, right? At the end of the day, nobody cares. It's all about process, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. What we want to do is target necessary areas that every single trader has gone through, will go through. And we're going to try throughout the years as we watch these videos and record these videos and make new videos, hopefully for a long time, that we're going to try to tackle every single thing a trader goes through. And there's something that I talk about all the time. There's something that I refer to as the mortality trade. And what it basically means is every single trader, when you start from your first brokerage account to your trading 20, 30, 34 years, if you're so fortunate enough to do so, okay, there will be a trade every now and then that is going to be put in front of you. And you won't know it subconsciously, but it's going to test your mortality. And what I mean by that is there's something that says there's no generally there's not going to be a trade that's going to define your career. Okay, unless you come in with some ridiculous size on something and it gets taken over or something to that degree, you're not going to be able to put yourself in a position that one trade is going to make your career. It's going to put you to the next tax bracket. But throughout the years, and everybody knows this, nobody talks about this, but everybody knows this. But throughout the years, you're going to be faced with trades over and over and over again year after year after year that potentially could test your mortality potentially could put you out of business. And it's so easy to let yourself go and let your guard down and take a paper cut and turn it into a severed head that most traders don't even know what's going on until it's too late until they find themselves with zero capital left, and they blow themselves up. And that trade is not just regulated for the new traders. I see this all the time, especially on social media, especially on a lot of these low float stocks that people are shorting and this that the other thing they blow up their account and they're like, oh, my God, I learned my lesson. But it happens to veteran traders as well, not in that type of capacity, but it puts yourself in a position, especially if you are fortunate enough to go on a big, big run. Okay, the market gods remind you from time to time how quickly it is to test your mortality. So I want to give you a perfect example. So I've been on a pretty, pretty decent groove, right? Pretty decent groove for a while. And Thursday came along. Okay, Thursday came along and everybody knows, you know, my favorite stock to trade is Tesla first, you know, several days of the week, I trade a Tesla fine, no complaints. And the market gods again, here's where you really, really open yourself up to think you are better, smarter, Teflon Donut to the market that nothing can have nothing could hurt you. We can walk on water, right? We can walk on water. Everything will be fine. And the market gods will tap you on the shoulder and tell you straight straight to your face, you might think you're something, but you still ain't shit. So perfect example. Here is my potential mortality trade and what could have happened to me so innocently could have turned into something really, really disgusting. So here was a setup on on Tesla on I think it was Thursday. Okay, so I short Tesla the second entry, right? It goes through this 305 inch area puts in a low. So I shorted on the second entry. Okay. And the stock instantly goes down a dollar, right? Goes down a buck. So right now you're probably at home and saying, well, how can how could what what happened what could possibly happen that could have even made you even continue to have this conversation. So here's the kind of the reality of these aggressive stocks. They're very orderly and very lethargic and predictable after 10 o'clock because the market settles down people start to stop chasing all that good stuff. What happens prior to 10 o'clock they're very, very aggressive. Sometimes they're very, very spreading. Sometimes they are not as liquid as you want because people are buying people are selling these headlines are reacting to futures are reacting to macro news. And once in a while again, like I said, the market will really test your ability to be solid. Okay, whether you again realize it or not, that's up to you. And it's your job to kind of, you know, cut all the bad stuff before it gets really, really worse. So I short Tesla right here. Right. I short Tesla right here, and it goes down about a buck and change. I'm talking about within 20 seconds, 30 seconds. And it goes to 301 bid, right? I shorted like a 302 goes down to 301 bid and I always bid for some at home numbers just to kind of always scale out on the way out. And, you know, that's just my process. And it goes to 301 bid and I bid for some stock there. It actually trades there. Right. Actually trades there. I think the stock goes to like 297 298. Just if you look at the daily chart and this is where I was getting my levels from. I thought this level here 298 50 was a slam dunk in my brain. This was this absolutely slam dunk is that now we already took out the 309 that I shorted in the early in the week, the 305 that I shorted in the middle of the week. And now, you know, we took out the previous days low opening range low. So I figured, all right, 298 is happening. And right after 298 is a legitimate swing this chart when we get to 294. So in my mind already forecasting, I was expecting a huge trade. Right. Huge trade. But again, I always scale out on the way out because again, there's no guarantees. So I already did several things that I usually 99% would never do. Number one, I forecasted a trade. Okay. Which we basically tell all the traders all the time. You might have an opinion. You might have a bias. Technicals might be telling you this is what's what should happen. But our reality again, and the reality of our lives, completely different things. Right. So I forecasted the trade. I did have an opinion. I did have a bias. So that's check, check. I did that right. I entered the trade properly. Check, check. Right. Right. Second entry. So I did that right. But I was convinced. Okay. I was absolutely convinced that the stock was going to go down at least another $4 from my entry and possibly $8 throughout the day. So I already mentally committed, I didn't realize this, but I already mentally committed for a trade that didn't even confirm yet to the prior level. Okay. So I already made that mistake. Although I did some good things. I did some really, really bad things subconsciously. I didn't know it then, but subconsciously I did. And usually my processes and for you guys obviously trading a lot of webinar. I always say, once the trade, you get cash flow, take some profits along the way. Again, there's nothing guaranteed, blah, blah, blah. And then use break even as you stop. Again, always protection of capital lead with your shield, not with your chin. Again, if you rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat, it's going to add up to a pretty panic. So it goes down like a dollar and change. And all of a sudden I see 301 bid, but the problem is those offers, okay, offers disappear from like 301 30s, 301 50s, and they go to 302. There's literally nothing between 301 and 302. And this is when I knew something bad was going to happen. So I couldn't get out break even. There's nothing I could have done to get break out, break even. It went from 302 offer, 303 offer. It was like the market gods were, I thought like something was wrong on my platform. There was nothing in between. It went 302, 303, 304, 305. Good night. And the most important part is there was nothing I could have done. Okay. Nothing I could have done to get me out of the trade, to cover out of the trade. I never want to panic out of the trade just because if it tests the prior levels and gets rejected again, it could come in. But this was just the case that I had no out. I couldn't get out. I forecasted the trade. No supply was rejected because there was literally no stock out there that was grinding the stock back down after the initial aggressive volume. And I found myself in a situation that I could literally, okay, literally close my eyes, hide underneath my desk or take the loss, okay, or take the loss. And obviously I did the right thing. And unfortunately, I took loss. Unfortunately, and it was a pretty decent, you know, it was a pretty decent chunk. Unfortunately, many new traders, they don't have that rationale. Okay. That my whole thing is you could be wrong. Okay. You could be wrong all the time. You can literally be wrong all the time. As long as your wrong bias adds up into financial security that you could continue to continue to trade. The problem is many new traders, when they get stuck in a trade, and again, it's going to happen. Okay. I don't care how long you're trading, you will get stuck in a trade. It just happens. It's just, it's just one of those certain things that many new traders don't talk about. Professional traders don't talk about. Sure as hell, nobody's talking about on social media. It's bad for businesses, bad for reputation. It's bad for perception. But every single trader goes through it. And when you're unfortunately stuck in a trade that you can't get out. Okay. Your size or whatever the case may be, whatever the circumstances is, if you can't get out of that trade. Okay. You have to really stay calm. Again, going on tilt is not in the cards. You should never have that mental makeup to say, once I'm stuck in a trade and my loss now is abnormal. Okay. It's abnormal. If you know, if you're trading for, let's just say, just use an easy number. If you're trading for $500 maximum win loss, whatever the case may be, and your trade starts going 750, 1,000, 1,500, 2,000. Now your trade becomes abnormal. Okay. It's an abnormal event. It's an abnormal trade. Because again, if you're generally making 500 or losing 500, there's no reason for your trade. One single trade. You have a bad day. It's a whole different story. There's nothing that in your makeup, in your genetic trader makeup, that you should allow yourself on a day-to-day basis that have an abnormal trade go your way two, three, four, five times your average loss. There's absolutely nothing right about that. And hoping and praying is not going to get your money back. The one thing that we can do as adults, as professional traders, and again, people won't admit it, but it will happen to everybody and it will happen to everybody randomly. The only thing you can do is say to yourself, do I want to continue trading? It's a very honest question. I think 99.9% of the traders will never have that question enter their mind because all they're seeing is their money leaving their account. All they're feeling is your heart rate racing, your emotional levels racing, your sweating, your irrational, everything is hot. You feel the walls are closing in. You feel like you're about to pass out. You feel like you're about to have a panic attack. But if you realize, OK, if you actually stand back and realize for two seconds, well, wait a minute, this is abnormal event. It doesn't usually happen. And now it's my job. It's my duty, OK, as the protector of my capital to really take. And again, we don't even want to use a paper cut. We want to make sure a loss, OK, a loss. There's a difference between losing money and having a loss. A loss is two, three, four, five times your normal amount. What you want to make sure to do is really take a step back and say to yourself, well, how many trades can I realistically, if I knock it off now, now it's already over the line of reality. How many trades will it take me to get this money back? If the answer is two, three trades, you did your job in taking this loss. And again, I don't want to say a big loss because then again, every single account size is relevant. If you trade for $100 and you lose $500, that's a bad loss, right? If you trade for $1,000 and you lose a $5,000, that's a bad loss. I don't want to my dollars and cents every account and every single person will have an individual abnormal type of day. But it's our job as adults, just as adults and business owners of our accounts to kind of take a step back and say, well, wait a minute, let's put this into perspective. Is it bad? Yes. It's bad. Is it normal? No, it's not normal. Is it something that I could come back with? And if the answer is yes, if I can make this money back in two, three trades, then you did your job. Once you start turning around and start thinking of worst case scenarios, my wife is going to leave me. I'm not going to be able to pay my bills. You just watch that trade go from two, three times, right? Abnormal to 10 times abnormal. And the next thing you know, you run out of capital and your trade is done. And the next thing you know, you're writing a blog on social media, what you learn. It gives a shit. Nobody cares about the blog that you learn. Our job is to cut it off at the root. It's going to be once in a while, you're going to have a bad trade. Once in a while, you're going to have a bad day. It's your job as a professional money manager. And yes, every single person, I don't care if you're betting $50 or you're betting $50 million on a trade. You're a professional money manager, right? Your money is green. Your money is just as acceptable as everybody else. And your job is to protect it as well as possible. So if you find yourself in a situation and a lot of new traders watching this for the first time, and you haven't gone through this, believe me, you will. All you professional traders have been trading for 10, 15, 20 years. You know exactly what I'm talking about. You might not admit it, but we all know. We all know anybody who's ever clicked a mouse, we all know this trade will happen. Now hopefully, I won't run into something like this for another year, for another two years, but it will happen. And the scariest thing, at least for me, is watching Tesla go 302, 303, 304, 305. And I can't get out. And I absolutely can't get out. So it's not that I learned a valuable lesson on, I think it was Thursday. It's not that I learned a valuable lesson. It was just a friendly reminder that it will happen again. Keep your composure. Keep your composure. You can't walk on water. You can't walk on water. And the most important thing is stay calm, stay cool. You'll make it back and everything will be fine, business as usual, down the road. So guys, I hope for all you guys who are trading, especially new traders, just realize if you run into a bustle and you will, and I usually use that bustle as a losing day, but if you find your losses abnormal, take a step back. Okay. Stay in business. That's the most important thing. Stay in business because again, realize you're not alone and every single trader does go through it. And you know what? It's going to happen to you again. So hopefully not anytime soon, but again, is just part of the business. The good, the bad, the ugly and the abnormal are all parts of the game that we sign up for, for the greatest reality show that's not on television. So hopefully that helped a lot of you guys out quickly in the markets. Again, market continues to be very, very good. This is the headline China risk, China trade on China trade off. Again, it's already nauseating. We are having this really good now. Now you could actually call it a V shape recovery. It is pretty, pretty strong. We are building over daily supply. Again, this is the first time we're building off daily supply since October. Okay. Since October. So it's a long, it's a long piece of data that we are absorbing right now. And again, a lot of bears are very, very frustrated. The only thing I don't like, and this is what I've seen now for the last couple of days, especially in beta land, my stocks, the stocks that I trade every single day, they're not really getting aggressive. If you look at Amazon for the last couple of days, you would never know that the Dow was up 400 points. And again, this is setting up to be a pretty decent looking set up to the downside. We'll talk about that in a second. If you look at Apple, right? Apple had that one run after earnings, right? Had that run after earnings. Now it's kind of going sideways. Again, very, very tight to the bottom, very, very tight to the top. Something has to give. And again, before we say this is bearish or bullish, well, we need more data for confirmation of channel A, confirmation channel B. Netflix, which was actually a really, really strong pivot on Friday. And we'll talk about that in a second. You can see, again, had a big, big break, right? Had a big, big break on Friday. It looked like it was going to go up 5, 10 points. The market's screaming. The market's up 400. And gave up all its gains and closed next to the lows of the day. The video, again, hated, very, very hated stock. Got downgraded. I think even my mother downgraded them right before earnings. Gapped up. There was two really good pivots on the video on Friday. Again, we'll talk about it in a second. But again, you start seeing things not rallying as aggressive as possible. Baidu, Baidu going down, Alibaba going down. These are all trades that were affected on the China trade. All that good stuff. Square has been very, very strong. Roku has been very, very strong. Microsoft very, very, very helped starting to get that look, right? Starting to get that look like it wants to break out. So the only worry I have, and this is, again, very, very strong from the point of the queues, we need to continue to close above this, like, 9175, 9190 area. We've got to start continuing to build for the bullish case. And you can see here, the next measure potential is 174. Again, will the bulls and the bears be challenged by the same headlines of China risk on, risk off for a foreseeable future problem? Okay, the deal will get done eventually. But again, the market has spoken and the bears are losing the battle at the moment that even though this is on the table, this news headline has been on the table for almost a year now, the bulls are really grinding now and really taking the shorts for a pretty decent ride for the last six weeks. Just a quick announcement. I started putting, for all you guys who are on the Twitter feed, the live Twitter feed, if you can't make it to the live webinar, this is the next best thing. For those of you guys who are on the private Twitter feed and the StockTwits feed, what you guys noticed on Friday, I started putting something a little abnormal in the feed, and these are rejection areas. These are areas that a stock can go into a 60-minute supply zone, whether it's a bone driven, linear regression line, and there's an opportunity the stock gets rejected and starts coming back. So I started putting a couple of these things into the channel. We have these things in the live webinar on a daily basis. What I'm going to try to do starting tomorrow is put more of these plays into the channel. So when there is kind of a dead zone and you don't have a natural pivot, we will put these things into the channel so you can have a very good defined area of risk where stock could get rejected or bounce. Obviously it works two different ways. So let's talk about the pivots from Friday. Again, guys, if all you guys are watching this is the first time, what you're seeing here is the StockTwits feed. It's the same thing on the Twitter feed. I just have to put this one out first. We don't pick and choose. These are all the things that I put in the channel. There's not 600 things I put in the channel. Some days are obviously more aggressive than others. We don't cherry pick. We don't cherry pick what to show you. These are the pivots. Either they go or they don't go. So Friday's session, again, you can see the time here, 8.47 a.m. This is Eastern Standard Time. The first entry right here, 64. Obviously in the video came out earnings, 64.85 to the upside, 61.70 to the downside ranges for the morning. Both need to build. Second entry. Look at the video. Here's the whole point of the video, the first entry. So here's the 64.80 that we talked about to the upside. And here's the 61.70 that we talked about to the downside. It triggered down. Second entry. This thing got absolutely destroyed. Went down about five bucks that first move. So congratulations for you guys who caught in the video. This is the big move of the day. Okay. We talked about this the previous night. And I put the wrong price. And obviously Netflix is 360 50 now 160 50. But this is on our watch list from the previous night. We talked about that 360 level. How important it was. 360 50 build important. And if you look at Netflix, if you look at Netflix, here's why. So the top of this channel right here. Okay. Was the previous days high of 360 45. And once this thing broke, right? That second entry was 361. So basically we traded to like 360, 361 retraced. And once it went through that to 361, it went to 664 and a half. So big aggressive move, three and a half dollar move considering how weak. Some of these beta names were pretty, pretty aggressive. This one didn't trigger. I still like this is an IPO UPWK and never triggered. Q's did trigger went up about, you know, 72 20 one of about 35 40 cents. And then you had a big, you had a really, really big reversal in the NASDAQ 100. So it went as well. Bowling congratulations. You guys record Bowling 414 needs to build again. Here's Bowling's chart. Here's Bowling's chart. This was this wasn't anything spectacular. It wasn't like any tricky or sneaky candle. This was just the top of the range on the daily chart. I broke that 414 second entry. I believe it was like 414 10. And the stock went to 18 big, big move on Bowling. The video, right? The video. Let's see here. What's up to Bowling? I, you know, we'll talk about Amazon in a second. It needs, it needs to really build this level. I'll talk about Amazon in a second on the video. And then I wrote for the rest of the day, 60 61 to the upside 5677 to the downside. And this pivot was really, really good. That second entry on the video was really, really strong. So here was the pivot right here. This, this area here 5877. Once it broke that 5877 it went down to like 58. It was like 5850, right? 5850. And then it ran right back. So that it broke and made that 15850 as a second entry and ran back over 29. And once it broke that 5850, the second entry, this stock got clobber. I mean, really, really clobber went down another three. So two really aggressive pivots on the video. Yeah, here it is. 5876. And here's kind of what we talked about. We're going to start putting into the channels here. So I wrote here a couple of possible supply zones that could get rejected. Amazon never got up to 1615, but Netflix, if it gets up to the 5930s, it could get rejected. Now here's why. I want to show you guys what happened here. So here was 58. Here's the area where it got rejected. Everybody see this orange line? For all you guys in the live webinar, you understand why it's important, why it's important, this orange line. This orange line represents short-term sentiment. Okay. It represents really, really short-term sentiment in the stock for the day. And obviously the macro if you're looking at the daily chart. So the high of the supply zone was 359.30. Everybody see that? Everybody see this candle here? We got rejected through the orange line. And if you look right here, right, it's pretty, these pivots are pretty in supply zones are pretty specific. Netflix, 5930s rejection. Look what happened here. It trades to this 5930 area to the penny. Okay. Gets rejected on the same candle sells off about three and a half dollars and ultimately really, really gets destroyed. So we're going to try to put as many of these things in the private Twitter feed in the stock to its fees possible. Obviously time permitted. Sometimes, you know, we get so aggressive in thinking and action in the live webinar. It's sometimes hard to, you know, to post everything, but that's why the live webinar is the live webinar. And that's the whole point. So we will try to put as many of these things as possible. The way it works is obviously you need a trend. So these things become important after 10 o'clock after that first candle because you need some sort of trend. Okay. You either need an uptrend linear uptrend or linear downtrend for these things to test levels. But if you could see it with the naked eye, you could see with the naked eye, if you look at the trend on Amazon, it's the orange line phase. It's the orange line phase. It's the orange line phase. So that's my point that orange line represents the ultimate ultimate short-term trend. And so we will be putting, and you can see this clearly with the video as well, right? Hits the orange line fails. Hits the orange line fails. Fails, fails. So again, we need a trend. So we will try to put these things into the channel as much as possible. So going into this week, again, you want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. Okay. You want to give the bulls, you know, some sort of longer leash as long as we stay above supply. Okay. As long as we stay above supply and continue to build, that's good. We have everything in our favor. The problem is we did start seeing a lot of softness in these beta names. If you believe the theory of follow the leader, well, they're obviously the leaders. They're the most aggressive stocks in the market. So if you believe in that and we start seeing continuous softness, then again, you start representing the question, do the techs pull down everything else, or does everything else pull up the techs? Again, to be determined. So guys, the most important message of this weekend update is, the mortality trade is there. Okay. Our job, I don't care if you're trading for two weeks, two years, 20 years or anything in between, our job every single trading day is to make the next trading day. That's all it is. And the market gods will test you. We'll test you. We'll test your patients. We'll test your emotions. We'll test your judgment. We'll test your common sense. And they will win. Okay. They will. Don't think for a second that we're smarter and more intelligent, richer, better looking than the market guys. Okay. These guys know they're stuck and they will win every single time. Our job is to make sure collateral damage is not expansive. Okay. So for all you guys who are joining us via the live webinar, we start the day at 9 0 5 Eastern time for morning strategy for all you guys who are joining us this weekend via either the stock towards feed or the Twitter feed. We start putting these feeds prior to the open, Pivot's private to the open. And with God's help, guys, again, stay in the game, get confident, trust the process. And the most important thing is stay solid. Guys, God bless. I wish everybody an awesome week and I'll see you guys on the field tomorrow. Take care guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on Pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.