 Great, welcome to July set news. My name is Rob and today is the thumbnail and title suggests there could be a reversal for Bitcoin We're gonna take a look at a specific couple of indicators the one-year hodl and the our hodl waves to see what's going on But remember just because we have one specific segment, but look at some other things we're gonna take a look at a little bit what's going on with the macro what's going on with the IRS and What's gonna happen in the next month or so? Also speaking of IRS the October 17th deadline for the tax extension is running out for us taxpayers I'm gonna show you how to talk to some Experts in an AMA and then lastly is want to go over this this stunt with the SEC as I say the SEC is out of control and This Kardashian thing which doesn't make any sense to me and really how much corruption there is in Congress So we'll do all that and of course we'll go over a little Q&A at the very end So first things first welcome. Thanks for stopping by on this beautiful Tuesday Yesterday couldn't get a video out had a lot of things going on But today we are back and we're gonna talk about some positive news for once It's a little indicator. So we have today There's these great charts. I like to use From looking to Bitcoin and there's a link in the description It's just look into Bitcoin comm and I like them because they're free and they're high quality and they're great And one thing that I got a notification on Was the one-year hodl wave? Is that an all-time high? I was like, oh, I have to take a look at that First of all, what the heck is that? So the hodl wave data groups Bitcoin by age Since it was last moved from one wallet to another They're looking at the percentage of all bitcoins that have not been moved from one wall to another for at least one year And if I can see that the higher the percentage of what's being moved and what's not being moved could indicate There may be a reversal and I found it very interesting that right now We're at an all-time high of 60 that right 60. Yeah, 66 point zero eight percent So one year people holding this 66% field is holding they're holding Bitcoin that I'm moving it Which is pretty amazing if you think about just how far we've dropped over last year So that's at an all-time high. But when I took a look at it at the one-year hodls We can go back all the way 2012. I mean Bitcoin is around 2009 And we started to look at this data on 2010 obviously for one year You can see that didn't really it went up for a while But it was very volatile and the last time it hit just I mean even 60 percent The last time was around that's not right December 15th 2015 then of course in a January it went up a little bit 61% and In February 2016 and you can see what happens here It's things were just moving sideways for a while and then it just started to go up until 2017 Boom, they did not hit it's all-time high now if we take a look at the next time it hit over 60% Guess what time that was in 2020 and we're at 60 actually Let's break it down May 31st 2020 with 60.88 percent again Moved a little bit sideways. We had gone through a lot of pain And then it went up to where we hit the first the first bump April 13th 2021 63,000 the next bump was that November 2021 at 57,000 that's not right November There we go 67,000 November 8th, but again, it was one with 60 percent now here. We are again We were at 60 percent over here now at an all-time high it was 66 percent So could this be reversal sure it could But just hold on because it's just one indicator that we have to look at also if we take a look at the R-Hodl ratio, which what the heck is that? The realized by value is the price of the coins or UTXOs when they were last moved from one wall to another R-Hodl ratio looks at the ratio between R-Hodl of one week versus a band of one or two years When the one week value is significantly higher It's a marker that the mark is becoming overheated, which is above here right become overheated I don't really care about this. It's not a really good Top indicator, but what I took a look at was right down here These real R-Hodl ratios and you can see in this little green accumulation I would say section see how kind of bottomed out right here almost at the ratio 93.96 and then it kind of came up here around let me blow this up so you can see it first of all So came on here bottomed out of this this lower range of a hundred and five point three one for the ratio not important Then we take a look over here What about halfway? Ratio 202. Okay, and then we come back. We take a look over here and maybe just maybe As it comes down and it's trying to come back above that ratio 350 instead of that 100 200 300 350 so it's a good indicator of potentially things to come also don't forget that That's We are in a mid-term election and like we talked about before Usually the stock price which I believe that the NASDAQ and Dow and S&P 500 are are correlated a little bit with crypto I don't know what I don't know what the crypto markets doing Whatever if it's up that means that probably the S&P 500 NASDAQ is up correct me where I'm wrong I don't know what it is, but If we take a look at the stock market performance since 1962 again For the midterms which happened in the first week of November You usually start off in like a little negative or kind of a slushy way of not too great And then within three months six months and 12 months you start to see an increase in the stock market as everything Starts to level out because it's one thing the stock market hates and that is ambiguity Now know what's going on and of course when we get We jostle for those Senate and House of Representative positions and we know who's in power as the Republicans or Democrats And we kind of just kind of ease into it things hard to do okay And the average the midterm average or midterm average, excuse me Before the midterms about 0.3% so pretty much flat and then three months seven point three percent Six months fifteen point one twelve months sixteen point three percent increase. So those are some good things I like those. I like to bring good news. I don't like to always bring bad news I know people say that I'm continually bearish, but I'm not I see the good things that are happening and Having said that Let's go to some bad news. So that's the good part But I still have some concerns and one of those concerns is this There's a a couple of charts that I put together and you can find those as a link in the description It's very top. It's a cycle lows and highs and if we take the from the the tip of the bull market that was 2012 to 2015 Wings at the top the price was 1127 at the bottom was 172. That was an 85 percent reduction the next one in 2017 the top was almost 20,000 the bottom was 3200 which is about 84 percent and thus far Depending who you ask The top was sixty seven thousand one forty five the bottom was nineteen thousand forty seven Some people will honestly say it's seventeen thousand six hundred or seventy thousand four hundred depending on which exchange As you look at that's between seventy one and seventy four percent Which is a still a far cry from the eighty five eighty four percent I still think we may have a little bit of ways to go and then on top of that There's also those macro factors and this was a good tweet Just put out because there's two things that we can take a look at that can that can lead us to indicators as far as recessions and downturns it's the housing market if we learn nothing from 2008 this is it and Wall Street is betting That there's gonna be a market crash essentially the second biggest home price decline since the Great Depression I wasn't around then But I heard it was pretty bad So real quick us home prices decline month over month last week for the first time since 2012 not too bad I don't think I mean not just a month over month But corrections and home prices can be expected in 2023 as long as interest rates remain elevated I think we just crossed over the seven point zero six percent interest rates For mortgages and that's not good. I hire the interest rates go up the more that people can't pay for that and they back out of deals than the more that the Builders have a massive amount more of supply and There's not as much demand Then they have to lower the prices and the interest rates keep going up and there's more supply There's less demand and it's just a bad sign all around now I could be wrong, but this is just what people are looking at by m 2023 US home prices could fall to 7% predicts Morgan Stanley not that they're right all the time either That's a lot smaller than the 27% peak to trough decline between 2006 and 2012 remember those days But it's more than the 3.1% peak to trough decline early 90s. Look, I'll take 7% decline I'm okay with that. I'll take it all day long actually But the 7% is Morgan Stanley's base case Forecast from prices the bull case is a 5% climb in 2023. I don't think that's gonna happen But okay, the bear case could exceed a 10% decline in 2023 Other US home price forecast of 2023 Goldman Sachs. They say it's gonna fall 5 to 10 Moody's 5 to 10% reduction Fitch between 10 and 15% So whichever way you slice it the home market I think is going to really be an indicator as far as what is gonna happen as far as that recession and that's okay Recessions come and go Recessions last between 18 and 24 months, but after that it's usually a big economic boom But there is one thing that does give me pause and think about the positivity, which is this There's a lot of money sloshing around out there and Right now. I think we're still under a trillion market gap for a crypto I may have bounced above or maybe lower. I thought it was like 960 billion But look all the money that's out there just looking for an asymmetrical bet So the Fed's balance sheet. This is not good. Actually. Yeah, this was in 2020 was 7 trillion now It's almost 8.6 trillion and they're unwinding it as time goes on as far as billionaires these guys Bezos Gates Zuckerberg 8 trillion gold as almost 12 trillion Fortune 515 trillion stock markets 90 trillion the money supply Which is way more now a hundred trillion global debt 253 trillion global real estates 280 trillion Global wealth 300 that's the big one global wealth 360 trillion and of course the rivet is One quadrillion that's futures forwards options warrants and swaps So for all these these are each of them these little squares a hundred billion dollars I'll just take a couple of those and then roll it into crypto because maybe These big companies The black rock which they've already done The Morgan Stanley the JPM organs they look at this and go, you know what we can't keep a cap in this forever Maybe at some point we will get into it and that's The bear or the bullish case for me anyhow, let me just think about that in the comment section And then let's finish up real quick Just so you know And we've covered this before this is an article a couple weeks ago The IRS is stepping up efforts to target us taxpayers who failed to report and pay taxes on crypto transactions So just so you know You can't say that it's a boating accident. You can't get away with that anymore. I may have worked in the past I don't even know if it did but not anymore. So If you use an exchange, they know who you are they know through KYC and AML So I just got this Nice email from coin ledger That said, hey, look if you got questions, we got answers. They're going to do a live q&a Uh tax extension deadline and there's a link in the description that's going to go through this It'll be in six days If you are somebody who needs help with your taxes, maybe go and talk to coin ledger also There's a link in the description Looks like this crypto tax made simple Uh how to use crypto trader And it shows you how to do it and then you can use that That software because I know it's very stressful to deal with that So this is the one that I've used I've used it for two years is very simple from the time that I set it up and Ship it over my cpa. It takes about 30 45 minutes or so because it does an integration with All the exchanges and that's what's going on for taxes I know it's not exciting for most of you but for other people makes you sweat like crazy So that's that and then lastly, I just want to say that the sec is insane and Everybody was talking about this yesterday and I was glad I didn't have to do a video yesterday I mean, I I like doing them. I do but it's like everybody was talking about this stupid kardashian thing I don't care about it, but it's just a stunt. I think it was a stunt and it makes me angry I don't know how it makes you feel but The sec goes over Like I don't care if they go over the kadasians the kadasians are fine But you get all this insider trading. You just had those those two brothers from coinbase. They got busted for insider trading yet congress seems to get a pass and actually this whole thing that happened with the the kardashians we don't know she Did some she didn't disclose that she was uh promoting ethereum something Divergent of ethereum, which was uh, she got paid like 250 000 And they they said give us now you're gonna pay us a million dollars for that and she did I think it was already staged, but it doesn't really matter but there was this great one from jungle ink and uh, he had uh I don't think you were able to hear this but Gary genzler was on squawk box. Let me see if I can play this a little easier stop You need to disclose not only that you're getting paid but also the amount So the source you were to see an ad and I think we all did during the super bowl for example with matt daemon around crypto I don't know if in the fine print of that ad it said how much he was being paid personally to promote that Would that be something that would be required? Uh, I'm not going to get into it. Andrew. I understand the question. I'm not going to get into any other specific Circumstances, but it's always depends on the facts and the circumstances and the anti touting provisions of the act And then it goes from there, so it was a great question I thought it was interesting that uh, hey does matt daemon now have to disclose out and on every commercial How much he gets paid just interesting because that's just what it is then lastly. I'll just bring this point up that congress is not supposed to Participate in insider trading, but if they do just so you know, there's this thing called the stock act That was passed in uh, 2012 But if they break it and they've broken it many times. I'm pretty sure They pace they face a stiff penalty of $200 Or it's waived by the house or senate ethics officials who they've probably served on those committees too So I just found it just just unbelievable rules for the but not for me And people get busted even though congress gets to do whatever they want to anyhow, that's just my little rants and then lastly I will just say, uh A positivity is I'm always harping All my rules underneath right Don't invest more and you can afford to lose as I say it's all gone. You've had that mentality is better It treat everything as a scam and tell prune otherwise Don't leave anything on exchanges. Don't use leverage It's the fastest way to lose money and take profits along the way nobody everyone broke taking profits But this middle one don't leave anything on exchanges Uh, you know now that you can connect your Your ledger to ledger live and then you can just these five easy steps You can connect your ledger to ledger live And then click on swap on your portfolio And you can swap whatever you want to and as long as you can sign into your ftx account Uh, they'll put it they'll take it right from ftx right to your ledger So it like Misses a step or not misses a step, but it eliminates a step to make things easier for you I just thought that was pretty cool. Uh, how the ledger integrated that and that's it. So look That is it for today For the news and those of it after some reason wants 17 minutes. I don't know what happened there But that's it So, uh, look if you want to stick around we're going to do a little q&a I'll answer all your questions the best my bill is if not take off you've been here 17 minutes I appreciate But that's it So on your way out if you would be so kind to hit the like and the subscribe. That's good, but right now Let's get into A little q&a. All right This is my favorite part of the whole show Jared