 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 calm We're welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in gold fundamental and technical analysis We're welcome to everybody if you're new or if you're a returning Watcher and please don't forget to like subscribe and share with your colleagues and fellow trading buddies if You like the content and think the content I provide every week is of use. So let's get straight into really the What's going on on the calendar in the week ahead and we'll get into more in-depth fundamental analysis and just a reminder I guess for those of you who are new to the channel We use a combination of fundamental analysis and technical analysis but we're really kind of driven by fundamental analysis in terms of understanding currency exchange rate value and Understanding really where prices are likely to go in the medium to long term short term prices are typically driven by Liquidity in the hunt for liquidity But if you can really kind of zoom out and understand what makes a currency appreciate or Depreciate and devalue Play really the best kind of pairs as far as choose the pairs where one currency is Appreciating versus a currency that is likely to devalue Then that's where you get the trends and those trends can last for actually quite a while and we'll see you know one for example one Currencies like for example the dollar anyways getting into the week ahead and Zooming in a bit so you can go to Trading Economics in the week ahead and I'll post a link in the The chat on YouTube so week ahead next week investors focus will turn to corporate results on the macro front, which is what we're on focusing on is the US inflation rate China and UK GDP growth figures and monetary policy decisions in Canada and New Zealand will offer traders fresh updates on the strength of the global economic recovery so right now there is concerns of the Global risk sentiment and concerns of a global slowdown really But even though we are in probably more of a risk-off environment where there is a lot of fear From things like inflation and economic slowdown Really our job as traders is to try and pick the winners out of you know the Currencies so who's the dog with the least fees is what um, you know I commonly refer to the phrase I commonly refer to so who's the best currency out of all of the Currencies that we do trade and that's the one you want to buy and who's the worst is the one you want to sell right? That's pretty much how it goes. Anyways, let's get into some of the technicals with some more fundamentals on top looking at the dollar index and DXY is just a measure of dollar strength against various currencies like the euro the yen and the pound so Using the dollar index as a guess a bit of confluence you can pretty much see what's been happening with the dollar Just it goes from strength to strength I was actually hoping last week that prices would actually you know come down a bit really Into this demand zone and use it as confluence to get a better price to buy the dollar But it looks like the dollar being not necessarily Strong but just basically as I said before the best of the worst right And my bias on the dollar to you know to buy the dollar of You know is pretty much been for the whole year I've been saying you know my bias is literally just been buy the dollar buy the dollar You can go back for all the weekly videos for anyone who's you know, he doesn't believe me on that never changed my bias I've always said buy the dollar this year have not once had to sell the dollar and Yeah, pretty much This is you know where that where the trend is and this is not hard to you know forecast It's just understanding, you know that dollar was pretty much the better currency now Does that mean that you know every single trade works out? Of course not Because there are pullbacks, right? But overall when you look at the path for these resistance This is what's you know been happening now the dollar right recently had jobs data and so Not giving up so the job data shows just how tight the US labor market really is in the border measure of unemployment Set a record low in June. All right, so that's typically good, right? But it's it's got some knock-on effects All right, but I'll get into that in a sec. So nearly four hundred thousand jobs added in a month and An unemployment rate of nearly a 50 year low is probably enough evidence of the extreme tightness in US labor market, but a look beneath the surface of the junior Employment report and other recent data shows just how hot it really is and the more inclusive measure Yeah, it basically talks about you know the Details into the unemployment and employment but the view that really you should take is that and the view that I Tell the traders in my private trading group is that in fact the Federal Reserve actually need Unemployment to rise. Yeah, and it's because unemployment The lower unemployment goes is the higher wage growth goes which adds to inflation and The Fed have a two percent target most central banks have a two to three percent target inflation target And they want inflation to come down So they need in fact unemployment to rise in order to get inflation down. Yeah, so This is really the link it's not necessarily to understand the necessary to understand the you know the Specifics of this and I'm not going to get into the specifics But just understand this that in times of low unemployment the demand for labor by employers Exceeds the supply in such a tight labor market employers typically need to pay higher wages to attract employees ultimately leading to rising Wage inflation, right? So although the numbers might seem good, right? And you're going to read that the Fed are definitely looking to probably hike say definitely But they're likely to hike by 75 basis points 0.75 percent. The reason why they have to is because of the fact that It's Low unemployment is contributing to continued high inflation. So it's not fantastic. Yes It's decent for you know potential trades But then there's not an effects of the economy and and and the light which I'm not really going to get into this And this is for just really kind of private members analysis But on the surface the numbers look great the dollar for me is still going to be a buy And then he pull backs really To the you know monthly fair value at all below are really, you know And some demand zones within below those areas and or at those areas are really the areas I'm going to be looking for still continued buyers so from a demand zone perspective the nearest demand zone is going to be there and and So around that 105 Yeah, round number to 104 6 4's is going to be the first kind of confidence area To potentially look for if price does that this week next week the week after who knows but This is really where for now. I want to be a potential by all I have some buying confluence For the dollar when I am buying the you know, the dollar yen for example or or any of the other dollar crosses So that's my bias from a sell trade perspective You're really gonna have to wait for if you are looking to sell the dollar then look for you know Proving supply proof of value that so that the dollar is expensive up here, but until prices do pull back Pretty much. There's no supply zones Technically so moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen again This week we did have Prices, you know move kind of grind to the upside and we are in an expensive area Yes, price did kind of hit this demand zone and kind of down to the the monthly one of the monthly moving fair values Zone but but for me, I think I'd rather wait for a bit of a deeper pullback And even an even bigger pullback if possible if we can get this now again, there is the 140 area which is being Kind of touted as the zone where if if for example The the World Bank of Japan may start to intervene at the 140 areas if prices drift all the way up there And if they do intervene then there could be You know quite a large drop in price But for now until you know prices reach the 140 or anywhere around there Or if the Bank of Japan come out and do a surprise You know in bank intervention for me again the path of these resistance is to the upside So any pullbacks to beyond the monthly moving fair value or at there I think probably beyond that would be a decent buying opportunity for the dollar yen dollar CAD In dollar CAD, I'm sorry dollar Swiss apologies dollar Swiss Dollar moving from strength to strength prices pretty much bounced off of that demand zone a couple weeks ago This isn't really a pair that I am interested in to be fair that the the Swiss Frank are And the Swiss National Bank are looking to high crates as well as the dollar So you're probably likely to have prices enter into what is known as an auction Traders would typically know that as a range, but it's known as a as an auction and Fair value auction between the one oh One zero zero six and ninety five. It's quite a wide Auction which is basically about five hundred pips, but the point being is that for me And you've got two pairs Currencies that are looking to where their central banks looking to high crates It's not really a currency that I'm looking to To trade and to be fair all central banks are actually hiking rates, but there are a bit of nuances with regards to I Guess the the the economies because the economies would be the difference right who's going into a recession first Who's going into a recession potentially later in last or who's likely to avoid a recession so for me It's a bit. I would say probably out of the two the dollars should be the stronger one to be fair but I just prefer other you know pairs then to trade the dollar Swiss think that supplies and has been taken out the Demand zone now kind of starts from there. So any pullbacks if you're looking at buying the The dollar really looking for a bigger pullback into that zone there if you're looking for a sell trade I would say probably the highs or just above that level would be decent for a for a sell trade Moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD again Two central banks hiking rates the Bank of Canada have come out recently and said that they are Actually, they didn't say it but there's been announcements or predictions. I guess that from from from traders and analysts and economists that The Bank of Canada are likely to hike by a 75 basis points so that again to currencies that are quite strong put two of the best currencies Probably looking at maybe some more downside potential But ultimately if risk remains off then the dollar should be the one to really Benefit from any kind of risk off Sentiment and continued risk of sentiment. So for example when he fears about global growth Is going to be really the dollars going to be the one or should be the one to actually strengthen If you're looking to buy then any anywhere, I think, you know beyond again Well within this demand zone to look to buy the dollar if you're looking to sell the the dollar and buy the Canadian dollar Then really this was your chance Up at these these supplies on highs Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar again, I was saying last week that Parfait is resistance is probably to the downside and we've pretty much seen what's what's happened There was a decent demand zone here, but again, we're in a risk kind of in a risk-off environment You're gonna, you know, the winner should be the US dollar Again, I'll delete this and I think any pullbacks into these supply zones are okay But again, they're below at the moment the Monthly fair value. So I don't like to take any kind of trades Below the monthly fair value every you know price has to be either there or above it and into any of those supply zones so Again, it's not really a pair that I'm looking to take Eva again the the RB and Z There's a Bank of New Zealand are looking to high crates as well. So Not really a pair that I'm interested in but if I was Be short in the the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar I think in a risk-off environment So if prices do come up to that zone there and then you get the moving fair value monthly moving fair value come back into that Zone as well, then that's some decent Potential confluence or anything higher than there From a buy trade perspective, I'd have to see some proof of value for prices to really kind of you know Prove that there's demand there and then wait for a pullback before looking at getting long into what would be You know a demand zone probably right around here in that Price range between the zero point six one six and the zero point six one two Moving on to the pound dollar and the pound dollar I am interested in Definitely interested in this trying to get short on this So I'm going to Should I keep it there? I will I'll drag this down a bit because there is a supply zone Right here So I do want to Highlight that that is a zone that I'm Probably going to be looking at right if prices can come up into this zone But also at least touch this the monthly Moving fair value. So that's going to be probably around the one two one seven areas Now why am I Bearish on the pound and again i've been bearish on the pound, you know from around april times You can pretty much see what's been happening But the pound Let's go back to sorry. Where was I I think I put them in the wrong place, but um the uk right so the uk Political chaos sees early election creep into traders radars. So net west expects faster bank of england hikes On prospect of fiscal easing early vote could see investors Assess scottish succession risks So the nonchalant nonchalance of of uk markets to The overthrow of the prime minister borris johnson could change in a flash. So If you're you know, if you're not up on uk politics pretty much our prime minister the uk prime minister Had to resign. He's messed up, you know one too many times, but how does that affect us as traders? So Here's a quote from I think it's net west who says the prospect of election itself would be unambiguously negative For the currency as a as why the political Risks escalate said net west analyst including sorry including image and uh basher Um an earlier election and therefore larger than previously expected physical physical easing Increases the risk of the bank of england acting more forcefully in the second half of 2023 and longer dated guilt yields rising. So Um Overall, I think it's still negative. There's a lot of uncertainty around the pound Again, I'm not saying that you know looking at the pound that you know prices are going to You know go to you know the the downside and continue going to the downside Nobody knows in the short term what it's going to do But um if all we can do is look for prices to pull back in as long as the pound has got You know problems. That's a decent price to look for any kind of short trades Or it might even be you know forever up here But as long as the dollar continues to you know outperform and stay the better currency for me The power for lease resistance still remains to the downside also as well adding to that you've got nomura Trading desk sees lack of buyers for the pound. So sentiment is clearly hugely against the pound says for says foster Sterling has tumbled 11 percent this year and made broad dollar strength as well So nomura plc's currency trading desk isn't seeing major buyers for the pound in the wake of prime minister borris johnson's Resignation sterling is moving on pure momentum against technical levels Said antony foster the firm's head of fx spot trading. We have seen no pound buyers of any notes You know, why would you really? I mean, there's going to be obviously pound buyers And it might even be like I said a bit of a liquidity hunt in the short term because there are a lot of The liquidity is really to the upside as far as you know Is located above the market because there's pretty lots of short traders and day traders are going to go short So all their stop losses are residing above. So I wouldn't be surprised if prices pull back You know stop out a lot of traders, but ultimately If you trade the way that we do as far as just being patient and looking for the best prices bargain prices potential cheap prices Then these types of areas are where you probably want to look for, you know, buying opportunities again Not financial advice, of course. I'm telling you what I'm doing. So for me, that's really where we are Buying a pound is not really something I'm looking to do So yeah, moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar again similar to the to the british pounds in terms of devaluation against the dollar and Again, we've been saying pretty much week in week out You know for shorts on the on the euro dollar and it continues, right? So the euro have got a lot of problems ahead of a lot of problems And the french minister says russian gas cut off most likely scenario. So nation trying is best to avoid power shortages Uh, le mary says finance minister to update edf nationalization in weeks. So french um finance minister bruno Lee marie Said europe must prepare for russian gas to everyone used to be shut off entirely In retaliation for the region sanctions on the kremlin and support for ukraine and Again over the last week or two. I've been saying this exact same thing These are the stories that I have been put out. I put it out on the 30th of june in in probably that week's Weekly analysis If you go back to to that week as well as jp morgan basically saying that, you know, they see stratospheric $380 oil on worst case russian cut, right? So From that perspective, you know, we're just getting more and more evidence of, you know, a potential weaker Euro so the market is pricing it in of course the market is ahead of You know the average retail trader and so it's probably what it's expecting is probably, you know, that too may be happen If it does it has to price it in so this is the reason why you're seeing, you know, this happened now Prices could obviously rally And do something different if the russians don't, you know, shut off gas suppliers and that Probably may see the euro start to rally A bit more actually a bit more but maybe maybe a lot, right? But either way The euro have got still issues beyond just the the gas problems that you know is And they're they're They're issues with russia. So let's see what happens there But anyways, the the nearest really kind of supply zone is going to be up at the 104s And look for any kind of short trades around there That's really where we're where I'm looking for anyway to continue to short the euro dollar moving on to the australian dollar us dollar and Australia again similar to the new zealand dollar and even the canadian dollar to a certain extent In a in a risk-off environment, you know, the dollar is going to be the winner commodity currencies tend not to do so well in the risk-off environment Any pullbacks, I think above that zone now, I think the 70 cent to 70 oh five Is probably the better level to look for any kind of short trades if we're looking to short this as far as demand is concerned If I zoom out the nearest demand zone was way back in 2020. So I'm not looking to I'd rather wait for proof of value for you know to look for any kind of demand, but I guess they could Put demand there, but it's not really a strong area of demand But just if you are interested in that that's okay I guess for for you to try to look for any kind of long trade, but personally, it's not really like said proven demand But that's where we are with the ozzy dollar the australian dollar I think it's going to definitely be a really good buy I'm probably one of the best buyers against the u.s. Dollar if risk sentiment turns back on so Yeah, just just keep an eye on that one Ozzy yen and the ozzy yen again this demand zone and managed to hold You know long trades around here From last week I was saying, you know, my bias is to the long side and hopefully you could still probably see something like that occur so I'm gonna drag this down Again, not necessarily the strongest demand at the moment, but let's see if The australian dollar does look to strengthen and appreciate, you know, they did They are looking to continue to high grades and I think from there their economy isn't isn't that bad To be fair, so let's see if price continues to Appreciate or the exchange rate at least if you are looking for any kind of short trades on the ozzy Yen and thinking that the yen is a bargain at any of these prices Then I would probably say the best area would be up at the 96 50s And the higher zone before looking at getting short But typically what should happen in the risk of environment the japanese yen should strengthen But I think that's The market is probably a bit more being driven by fundamentals at the moment than risk sentiment. So For me, my bias is still to the upside and gold, which has been a very surprising one I thought that there would have been probably some some buying on gold And it probably is buying doesn't mean that it wasn't buying because prices have gone down but Gold has not been performing and everyone's probably scratching their heads as to why now I do think there is an interesting a very interesting zone This area of demand right here and between us where we are at now down to the 16 81s and I do think that From a buying perspective and buying gold And the accumulation of gold by you know central banks This is this is definitely a bargain if you consider inflation now if inflation starts to you know come back down Right then gold should continue to You know fall away and that would also hopefully mean that Risk is more on than off and that would you know Would probably drive gold a bit lower, right? But if if the dollar I guess starts to Still continue to strengthen This could obviously push prices to the downside But let's see it guys said gold should really be somewhere up here if we consider, you know the world inflation problems Yeah, it's a bit of a very very strange when everyone's kind of scratching their heads on that Also, there's also something a little bit interesting I guess would be jp morgan gold disc ripped off markets for years jurors told so the u.s Says three from bank decided to cheat with spoof trades Defense orders defense says orders were genuine Didn't manipulate prices. This has been going on for years. By the way, they've been caught not they but other banks have been caught I think I think actually manipulating the silver market have been fined and stuff like that So manipulations do happen in the market illegal trading and manipulation of gold and silver markets and precious metals markets So maybe that's what's going on. Who knows but the point being is that um gold If you believe you're a gold bug, I guess this this should be just looked at as a bargain price If you're trading this then obviously Who knows right because you're probably going to be following momentum To the downside and looking for any kind of pullbacks if you are then I would say here It's probably your nearest supply zone to look for any kind of trades, but I think the I think if the dollar starts to cool off a bit, then this is going to be a decent buy considering, you know the the fact that gold has been in this auction for Quite a while. So yeah From 2020. So yeah, I think this is going to be a very decent buy for anyone who wants He wants to buy golden in the long term physical gold or even just trade gold. Anyways guys, that's it for this week Thanks for watching and staying to the end Hope you have a great trading week and take care