 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, everyone. Basil Chapman on this Thursday, the 19th of May, we're looking at the Dow down at 290 points at 31,200. Took out that left side key support, the 30,000 level is really imperative to hold, because none of these are the psychological level, but basically we're looking at that 30,000 level as important because in February of 2020, the higher that was made at a peak, D in the Chapman Wave monthly chart was 29568. Once we start messing around with that 30,000 support and start to take it out, you can give back all the gains that have been made since that high of February. So what we're all looking at here in the monthly chart, the key support on the left side intra-month so far has been taken out, the daily chart, the left side low of peak C of trough on the way down, we call them troughs, just at 31,272. That was taken out, today we've gone lower. There are signs at this particular point that suggest that although overall the selling is just not done at all on a very short-term basis, there could be some kind of a trigger to have a bounce of this 31,000 level in the Dow. If you look at the evening news today, we can't look at it yet, but if you look at it after the close with applied materials coming out with earnings and looking ahead and talking about whatever it is after the conference, what happens tomorrow? This is going to be really important because applied materials has gone from the 146 round number high back in April of 2022, let me just double check, did I forget to update that? 167.06, the high that was made right there on the 14th of January of this year, it was a 167.06, it comes zooming down to the 125-124 area, tries to rally, hits the 50-period moving average, makes a dreaded H pattern, that's the arch formation I always talk about. This is a fantastic company in the semiconductors, but as you might recall, I've been looking negatively at the semiconductors since the high in the 8th SMH was made back on at 318.82, the week of November the 26th, we made a double top, the left side, right side price vertical test said that the terminals were way weaker on that retest back in December or January, January the week of the 7th at 318.69, these double tops have been just unbelievable 318.82 in November, January 318.69 and then it just tumbles, that's like the dreaded H upside down, that's the inverted reverse Y with those double tops and then it comes down sharply and we make a low in the two, what was the low on the SMH's six sessions ago, it was two 15.23, so some good news, this says to be based on the dating of the weekly, we're not out of the woods in the semiconductor index yet and that would apply of course to applied materials, it would apply also to NVIDIA, I don't know when they come out with the earnings, NVIDIA has made a Truff F with a doji candle in the 159-ish area, so it's gone from the most recent high with a doji, exactly the same thing but a D back in March in the 280 area, just even from that level, let alone the 349 all-time high, that's just saying that these semiconductors have been completely, the selling pressure has just been intense, they've barely had more than a peak B before they failed to the downside in the dreaded H formation, so this is going to be important, what else is there this afternoon, applied materials, I don't think market movers, yeah actually this is a market mover, but it's been a market mover to the downside, this is PANW, there we go, this is Palo Alto Network, cybersecurity made the most recent high at about 647 high, all-time high, peak D in the dating makes this incredible arch formation comes tumbling down, it was a peak D in the weekly and a leg F going to a peak F this month probably confirmed, and this is really ugly, and this is the cybersecurity, this is an area that I just, I still don't understand why it's on, not on fire, because every company needs cybersecurity, so I don't know quite what's going on there, but the whole area, look at HAC, which is the ETF, HAC goes from 67, 97 November, the week of November the 11th, makes this second big arch formation dreaded H pattern, comes down, takes out the left side low, and is now trading at 45, 28, yes, that's maybe 30, 35, 36 percent decline, but at the same time, why is this not holding well? Surely every company needs to have some kind of cybersecurity crowds, another one, absolutely CRW, CRWD has all of the same pattern, and all I can say is that 242 round number high, that was the last high that was made in April, two, I think almost 298 was the all-time, 298.28 was November's high, this is just telling us that the selling pressure is intense, and that if in fact applied material doesn't give us some kind of good news to have at least a counter-trend rally in the most important semiconductor, remember, I consider semiconductors to be the fuel of the 1900s, the 20th century, still now today oil is the fuel for the economy, but now we've got as great a fuel, which is the chip, the whole semiconductor area, chips are everywhere, everywhere, you went from just a handful in automobiles, maybe what, 12 years ago, yes, incredible how many semiconductor chips are being used, so we have to consider, this is a tell for us how the market reacts on any good news, applied material is going to probably be some kind of an arbiter of at least a decent balance or a slump, so we'll see what happens there. Let's go on, we want to look at gold, as I said, gold was up nicely, up 28 bucks, that's because the dollar is moving down quite sharply considering 105.01, in one, two, three, in four sessions is given back, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, almost eight sessions worth of price movement, and it is a peak F, and I think I'm going to call this an F in the weekly chart, let's see what happens, only a C in the monthly, and that says, looking out, the dollars should still go higher, on the short term I've been warning subscribers that we've got to watch that that we are long from the 90 area for since 2018, I'm suspecting I might want to take a little bit off, we've only taken one little bit off in the 96 area, maybe it's time to take just a little bit off, but I still think we want to remain longer dollar for a long time to come, I'll be back in a moment, guys, down 290, where is it, it's down 90 buzzle cap, time conditions are, and I'll go to all the questions that came in. 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I'll just put that in, what difference does it make, what difference does a fractional difference make there, yes it does make a bit of a difference but anyway that's what I've got and then it plunges to a low low in a beautiful left side right side price time match in the chapter of methodology, the arch on the left which is called the arcuro I think it's called or cura, yeah cura which is a quarter, yes cura is a quarter of the semi-circle and that left side arch and then the right side arch went and it was three weeks late, three weeks late to get to that exact 1.063 level of March of 2020 they took it out went below and now it's gone more than three bars that's three weeks because the weekly chart below that left side low so it has to generate a whole brand new buy signal to be able to overcome the weakness and we'll see 1.070 is the first really strong nine period exponential moving average weekly resistance and then 1.081 will be the next one let's see what happens here let's see what's happened to the USDJPY in the same weekly chart oh don't type it there type it took you so long to write all those numbers down USDJPY this is the euro this is the Japanese yen dollar currency pair yes I do have a fair bank occasion I'll keep those films because if it's not too messy I like to keep it it went to a leg D probably a pd this week it's already Thursday I don't see how it's going to break the previous high that was last week's high 131.34 and Australia 127.36 pd in the weekly chart and I could do this let me do it rather with the monthly chart there we go but the monthly chart says we did well how did that change it didn't mean to change that that's where it was yep that's where it was so it didn't exact to the same midpoint assessment that I did in the euro dollar currency pair you've got now in the US dollar Japanese yen and it's gone to the high that was made back on June the week of the 30th of June 2015 I used the midpoint of that peak C minus of the 30 week of the 31st of October of 2018 and that was at 114 58 previous high was our one 125.847 and it broke out this one did it to the week damn it breaks out above and now it needs to hold two out of three weeks above the high of 125.45 125.84 and we'll see if it's able to do that the technicals are still very strong let's look at the let's see what's happening with gold in the weekly chart yes you see the weekly chart is stuck in this arch this this cup formation that produces a u going to a w so we're going to see what happens because the stochastic is just about to deflect lower if it holds very well on a weekly basis sorry on a monthly basis gold in fact could then retest those highs become many times from the um September 2011 highs or continuous contract so the price might change a little bit but from that high that was at 2147.2 September 2011 comes down to I don't think it's still 111 1170 there's 1236 because it gets smoothed out there's a continuous contract the low of December of 2015 makes the the arch gosh it makes a cup formation and it goes all the way to test that left side higher of 2015 uh August of 2020 it goes to what to 2118 and remember the previous high was back in September of 2011 at 2147 how about that within 30 points pulls back and then it comes again very close it goes to 2083 unbelievable how that happens and it keeps getting repelled is this the time is this the time that we see some kind of a change well look at the dollar the dollar's only in leg C in the weekly in the monthly chart and it's broken above that but so far for the month it's underneath 102.99 the high of 2020 and the high of 2017 of 103.82 it's under that high as well even though it's gone higher it's gone to 103 no i'm sorry 105.01 so yes that's what we're looking at in the currencies let's look at silver look at this si silver is trading very nicely hit the 14-speed moving average after using the 9-speed moving average as a springboard and it's trading at 21 90 point a point 36 it's a good start the mac these just in green that's a that's a good good sign for silver stochastic is very weak at 36 but is rounding on balance volumes very weak days young we'll see what happens next question i had a question yesterday i just didn't get to and i can't remember quite what the question is i just i know that i had to write down the symbol the symbol is gps oh that's gap is that what the question was for the youtuber yesterday the tiger tiger youtuber um uh it's pulled back it's got an arch arch formation in the dreaded h off the gapping down couldn't pull the gap and at the low today of 1112 it is still above the low that was made of 1107 just barely that was on the 20 seconds of these retail stocks that's the reason why i said we could be making many lows but it's not the low it's just a low and then we get an attempt at a rally and then we get a wash and we go to low lows i'm hoping that we do get a very strong rally coming up real soon that's the rally that's going to have another at least a chance to look at the short side on the stocks that have really been estimated to the downside rallying and we'll see which ones have the strength to get buy signal to buy mode and the dating charts or the ones that just have a nice big rally but they just can't hold it and then they will be ready for shorting going to i think some mid-summer could i don't know if we'll see the low and mid-summer but my my indications are with the vix index right now uh up 33 or 3129 getting repelled in that chapwave inside track repellent zone that today is so critical because of that 31 000 level on the gal we're only up we're up to we're down 260 up from the very sharp we up from the low we're down 15 in the s and p if we start to fail at 230 this afternoon it could get ugly we want to see a balance going if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every monday morning i publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xau hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities to seep yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tiger's is for just one dollar for the year there's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of tom o' brian and the other tfnn hosts 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including guardleafs abc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com so let me do this so the question i i believe it was gps uh that's what i wrote down and i um i'm just going to go with that's what i wrote down so yes the gps which is gap stores so all the retail stocks rth if you look at this the retail sector is just being decimated over the last three weeks um i all i can say is that this is an economic sign you've got to respect one of the reasons why we've gone back to big cash position uh having had a number of stocks that we put in either losing just a couple of percent some of them made six to eight percent or even eleven percent of the low price single digit ones that we've had in the last couple of days be real nice um what i am looking at here is that if the retail together with the semiconductors if the retail sector is now catching up to the weakness of the semiconductors remember i treat the semiconductors as a core ingredient to the economy and like copper or oil the chips i mean chips are there to stay so we're looking at the retail sector catching up and basically what i would do if you were looking to go along a question about us say uh cosco or in this case the question was gps gap gap is a little different to cosco so gap stores is very it's a specialty it's had a terrible time since it made a high in the 30s it's trading now to 11.22 the kilo was march of april of 2020 at 5 5.26 all i can say is that it's got the pattern the dreaded h pattern sorry it's got the eiffel tower straight up straight down looks like an uppercase a in the monthly chart i probably would say if i don't know if the person was short i'd just say stay short what i would do is if it drops under under 11 dollars at that point i would just as much for money management i would take out oh gpi that i think that's what it was i i see to myself i i don't think it's so what i'm saying is if you are if you're waiting if you're long you want you to get in into us just be careful and start that goes into the into the 10 underneath 10 goes to the single digits sometimes it's a real difficult time finding buyers but if it's the pattern that we're looking at the weekly nine is still way under the 14 gpi oh i think it was gpi what is gpi i've got it all notated here this is oh group one automotive ah yes it was i'm absolutely sure now that it was um this has made a little double top 189 69 was at top about three weeks ago it pulls back to the 200p removing average rallies are going to about 109 this double top with much we with weaker technical says be careful then you've got this now i have to look at it not just as a cup formation but attention potential rectangle it's taken out the left side low today's a nice day it's up 3.77 to 177.99 what i did once i saw that i said hey let's go back to azo took a huge beating the other day with earnings disappointed under the 200p removing average order zone ink order parts made a pd with an alternate count so this is what i i tomorrow's technical friday i'm gonna i'm gonna put it down here and i'm gonna put azo for friday i'll talk about this do you remember there's a technique that i said i discovered this years ago first of all decades ago i discovered this template this is called the instant restart where you go to a pd and within three bars you break out to the upside that gives you the chance to go to a brand new buy signal to buy mode but if it keeps going up and then pulls back close to the starting point and then it eventually takes it out but the technicals are still good enough it could be what i i i typed it in here in pink chaplain wave unconventional flat base restart target is 1760 and i typed that in way back i've typed it in i believe it was over there as it was pulling back i did not see this for a little while that it actually took out that left side low and then screened to the top and i put in the alternate count that it didn't look like a peak see it looked like everything about it was a d i have to go back to the instant restart and look what happened it pulled back and now the target is back to that 1760 level and the low in fact was right here so this is all in the order parts group 1759 1760 oh it hit it exactly unbelievable i forgot to look at that and it's still i still call it a g slash c in the in the monthly chart and that says hey if you've got this kind of technical picture in the weekly chart let alone the daily is this going to really be a p g we don't know yet in the monthly chart but look yes aap which is also this oops don't type it there type it right here in the right angle aap is this is um there we go aap is um advanced order parts oh i used to for the last couple for the last two weeks for some reason my mouse i can't you see this arrow well i go to file and then i would save i go to this little picture right here that says save um save all workspaces and it won't click on i can see everything the price is all moving but it's like there's a glass screen i don't know what it is i try to figure out my man come over and look at it i've got enough memory everything's there i don't know what it is i'm gonna have to call trade station i hate being there i'll have to call it so you know that i've had this notated from for years no decades all of the azo and aap so this went to a peak a pb and other than that trade station i really like it i mean i've had ever since it used to be super charts so that's quite a while this is a p e in the monthly let me just double check i think that was a penny higher so that's two one seven six nine two one seven six six nope this is a peak e right here and now we've got a peak f in the monthly chart who got to be careful so if all of them are turning down i would not be looking at um gpi gpi in a bullish way other than that is holding much better than the others and therefore it could be a late bloomer and could still be digesting from the top in Australia 178 i would i short this at this particular point i'd say you know what i'd give it two days if it's able to get to 178 right now if it's able to get to 183 and try to full most of this red candle from yesterday i'd say maybe the others are better shorts but would it be a short if it starts to fail and goes to 175 i'd rather say you know what yes i'd put it i'd short it but i'd put a stop 17178 so 17 bucks i'd probably a fairly tight stop i'd have it like a five point stop on a 17178 dollar stock yes so that's the way i would look at it okay a couple of questions no gpi was a short idea i missed it okay yeah it's in that category of the auto parts companies that are having a tougher time a question then came in about let me see how to put it down oh yeah we go um sisco sisco uh thank you gt as why sisco's earnings are causing network stocks juniper to sink well sisco is down seven points at 41 86 um it made a high of 64.29 december the third week of december the 31st and that was a pd in the monthly chart as well this is just telling me that we're not ready for prime time in the market yet yes um the easiest thing would have been just to have some shorts months ago and then just sit there saying you know what go where you want but i've been doing it the difficult way by trying to play the balances and actually some of them have worked out really well that's that's hard work even though you do make money it's hard work the easiest you have to get the short so go with the tide the tide says go far the drug will start to down the sisco systems is one of those i'll be back in a moment are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes 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fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv i'm always balsam chapter 81.34 was the high all-time high in the xlp yes xlp which is sdb select staples spider fund i'll be looking at this for some time saying hey let's keep an eye on this because when those staples start to pull back that's gis which is general malls a whole bunch of them you've got to be careful well look at this 81.34 trading right now at 70.36 that is a big move in the sector that was a leader pd in the weekly a leg e in the monthly i have to respect this is saying the rotation now is starting to go to the areas that were the strongest and you've got to think of it as where can we where can we find the kind of support that says you could have a 30 percent counter-train rally and i don't think we've quite there yet we're getting closer to at least a pretty decent rally but a very strong one that almost gets people forgetting about the bear bear market and saying oh this is a brand new bull market before it turns around and has a big retest market um earthquake and then aftershocks test at about the same level little high or a little lower we'll see what happens so this is very important so yes the answer is that gis which is general mills same pattern and look at this beautiful i spoke about this recently remember the double top 7380 on the 21st of april and it retests around about the ninth or so of may at 7399 how many times have we seen within pennies major indexes retest those highs okay yeah we got questions came in amazon where where would a target be for amazon amazon's got from 3773.08 all-time high back in i think it was july of yeah july the week of the 16th of 2021 had the retest oh i used to have that in i must put it back in the retest right there and that was in uh end of october beginning of november at 3762 with much weaker technicals in fact the stochastic didn't even go over 80 percent and whoops it goes all the way down to the 2070s is training right now at 2239 this is a really important moment is it able to get to a leg b or does it break down and all of a sudden it's down under 2000 remember when we were here up in the 373 600 i said i think that my target is 2600 2650 well we went right through that three weeks ago so right through that and continued red candles all the way down to the low just above 2070 and that just says to me that if amazon is in this situation if federal express is in this situation um going from a high at 319 uh back in the week of the 28th of may of 2021 a year later training at 197 if ups this is now the shipping area for all amazon's products or not all of them but a lot of them i made a peak d in the monthly chart peak f in the uh weekly and a d doji candle around about 220 um and now we're trading at 166 with a horrible candle today you just have that's the reason why i say to subscribers we're built up cash would have these trades would have a lot of trades but the key key thing that i want to impress is we want cash ready for the the big the big low that comes in whenever it does come in and on the way we can have some stocks that we've tried to have stocks that maybe can hold up well then i have to really break to the upside but to hold well it's money put to good use because if they come out of the strong and still hold um they're going to be looking really good but i make stops pretty tight and if we're out we're out we can always get back in i have no problem i always feel for us it's fairly easy to make a six eight percent even a 12 percent um a decline um but wow you start getting to 18 and 22 percent it just sits in your head saying oh i gotta make it up now i can't take that chance because no i'd rather be thinking so crowd strike thank you gt uh garb net loss attributable to crowd strike was 50.5 million compared to 24.5 million um yeah crowd crowd strike reports third quarter fiscal year 2020 financial results so that was a couple of weeks oh that was in december of 2021 oh so i guess that's the reason why they have not been doing well um the barons thank you for their baron's quote stock investors are now starting to feel the five stages of bear market grief so the more we get this kind of news the greater the chances are that we will get some oversold balance but let's just go through this again sh which is the s the s and p one-to-one short is trading at what is it called is called the uh pro shares trust short s and p 500 it needs to get above 16 point 16 point 38 to start a leg deep so there's a lot here that tells me we're getting real close to an overboard situation in some of the technicals the vix index is stalling stall the day is young i can tell you i i'm looking at this market it is trading on thin thin well on thin ice because um the rallies would be very selective with select stocks as someone said um um right here generalize says plce and bj are up after earnings and i think place that's children's place i haven't looked at it for ages i don't even think i've got it still notated so children's place yeah it's up but way it's way down from the 117 area it was in in 2021 it's trading at 45.70 so that's not a good sign and um bj i don't know if that's the symbol i haven't looked at that in ages yes uh bj is the um bj's wholesale club a huge red candle gap down yesterday and today tried to rally and it's it's up 2.98 at 56.48 but it can't yet hasn't yet taken out yesterday's high cap cap down higher 59.48 so that's not a great chart pattern so this is i think the market is under pressure cash is king and on the short side yes but you've got to have you know if you were short like the dogs the place that we'd often go to over the years um look at those big drops to the downside it would just take you out and then you've got to get back in so i always say the best is if you can get the turn at the bottom or the turn to the top because it gives you a huge cushion because then you can just sit back and say you can be as volatile as you want as long as you're making higher highs and higher lows all low highs and low lows so we've gotten to leg d in the dog the comparable sh i've shown you uh yes uh yes something that's also quite quite important um v nx dot x this is the dollar v nx dot x no dollar v xn dot x there it is so this is the vixen this is the end the x volatility index has this incredible spiral a march of 2020 to 84.67 it's gone as low as the 18 is it 18.01 level back in october of 2021 making higher highs but you remember in the chapter in methodology although occasionally do get legs d and e and f i don't use that this is just volatility and it can fail at a peak a this happened to be a peak d the higher for 2020 and then it plummeted but look at this um on a day like this so such weak action and yet the vixen is actually down 65 cents of 36.80 and the vixen itself hit the trend line support and now it's at the trend line resistance it's up 126 cents of 31.22 i'll be back to the final segment sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn 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information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com thank you round number low on tesla but you remember what i said i could be wrong i'm not a psychologist but i'd love to do this in the market i've done it for decades and decades i have always felt you know the same with crm which is uh this guy who's the name i always forget salesforce.com ceo when he lost his focus and started talking about books on ecology and all that stuff i said oh man and he bought the building that icon to himself i said this is a big problem and i think tesla i think that musk has lost his focus once he moves away from the building hangers that are a mile long and he has huge steel structures or whatever it is to build spacecraft or you know what you you know what you have to spend to build an automobile company it's unbelievable now he's talking about twitter and to me i don't care anything about all the other ins and outs i'm just saying i think musk has lost his focus and as a result tesla is highly vulnerable and it's trading at 714 i would not be surprised if it tests 600 over the next coming weeks that's just the way i'm looking at it based on other things the technicals seem to confirm that but i'm talking about tesla uh as a musk entity cf uh cf is cf industries holdings hydrogen nitrogen products clean energy fertilize emissions etc in a trading band at 98.39 but it is showing signs of a struggle here it needs to hold it's at 98.39 if you are long i'm going to make the recommendation of taking just a little bit off and we'll we'll talk next week about where you would put that back but just in the meantime on the shorter term i think it's kind of struggling the technicals are starting to weaken yes it could bounce but if you are long and i think the person who's asked me about it is long i'm just going to say stay in a long position take a little bit off that's really important so let's just go through this one more time the vix index is absolutely based on the five materials coming out tomorrow and options exploration with the vix index taking the drop of feet 20.89 is down 17th if it's able to pull back underneath 29.70 and stay there through the two to two thirty five