 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 18th of February 2019 and the time has just gone 905 GMT It's been a fairly slow start to the European session here We have seen a bit of a downward move on the footsie, the Dax and the Keck But keep in mind we had a very strong finish to European and US equities on Friday and Asian equity markets put in a solid performance Overlives, but we are seeing a bit of a move to the downside a bit of a profit-taking and there is continued Uncertainty over the growth rates in Europe. We've heard from the French central banker, Mr. Videroy He stated that the next move by the European central bank in relation to interest rates all hinges on The economic indicators that come out of of the eurozone. We already know from last week that Italy is in recession and Germany just about to avoid a recession and broadly speaking We've seen some fairly poor economic indicators of the eurozone in terms of services and manufacturing From all the major countries Germany France Italy Spain So there are questions about this at the back end of last week. We've been heard a member of the European central bank Suggests, we could have additionally targeted the equity from the European central bank Which helped any markets rally on Friday But if the European central bank are even talking about or contemplating Additional targeted equity, it would suggest that there's a problem there. There's a problem there to begin with So we've seen equity markets in Europe or most of them or most of the major ones just a small bit lower today It's been a fairly quiet day in terms of economic news Overnight we've heard from right move and they stated in February that average UK house Asking prices for houses increased by zero point two percent on on the on the year on your basis And that's just the slowest annual growth rate since 2009 British House property market has been quoted a small bit and given that We're only a number of weeks away from the UK's departure from the European Union And there's no real kind of clarity in that situation. It's already a surprise that we're seeing house prices taper off Today is president's day over in the United States of America. So US markets will be our Remaining closed. So it's likely gonna be the case that we're gonna have a lot of low trading volumes and load and no volatility here in Europe US Chinese trade talks are gonna continue this week There was progress made in Beijing last week the trade talks will continue in Washington this week And just a very fact that the trade talks are actually moving to continuing Is actually seen as a positive? The rhetoric we haven't really heard a whole lot from either side in relation to have the talks are going But the information we have heard heard seems to be positive and given that The rhetoric has certainly dialed out in comparison to what we heard in the kind of middle and back in the back end of 2018 Traders are seeing it or taking it as a positive sign I'll take a look now. I saw the major markets and See what see what the the price action is doing We can see here that the FTSE 100 has continued to make a decent recovery Since late December has been the kind of quite common theme global equity markets bouncing back to the date December And we can see here that on Friday The FTSE 100 pushed up to a level not seen since October So it gives indication of how how how strong the the recent bullish move has been that are for printing multi-month highs on the FTSE 100 and What's up? Predict the importance is that we're up in a round. We're currently trading at 7,000 212 and the 7,220 area after to be proved to be a very important metric or level In September October last year and we're there there about at that metric We're also not too far away from this red line here the 230 moving average which comes to play at 7,000 just north of 7,300 So if you can hold above 7,220 or if you can get it if you can close above that continue to build on that We could be liking your targetting the kind of 7,300 region Even if you do have a drift lower and move to the downside support might come into play in around this area here in around the 7,000 mark and we can see here that actually has both Resistance and support Back in early February. So if you do see any moves to the downside I'll keep an eye out for the psychology important 7,000 metric Taking a look now what's going on over in germany similar situation on the germ market Whereby we've had a decent recovery since late december, but notice how Notice how the DAX is hovering around this this area of this line here the water day moving average which comes into play at 11,280 We can see that we're just about holding above that line for the time being We can see that a previously active resistance At the beginning of the month that we're now could potentially acting as support If we can hold above that metric and we need to press on higher from here We could look to run into this trend line here, which comes into play Just shy of 11,400 or 11,390 and that trend line comes from this point here Where if you draw a line between the highs of june through july And also september and i'll grant it They'd manage to trade above it in september if you do if you do draw that trend line Which previously actually had resistance in the past that may act as resistance in the near term So we could be looking at targeting 11,390 or 400 And if we go beyond that and then keep on up for this region here 11,690 We can see that actually as resistance on a number of occasions at the back end of last year or so It may act as resistance again in the near term If the market does manage to turn over on itself again if it does in the near term Support might come into play in around the 11,000 markets a big psychology number But it also did act as support on a few occasions in the last month or so Take a look now at what's going on over on the s&p 500 in the u.s The u.s markets are in are in better shape than their in their european counterparts And as you can see here like with the european counterparts the u.s markets have been making a very impressive recovery since late december The s&p 500 has managed to um Pull back above they the um the trend line here and it's acting as trying to support yet again We've actually managed to trade above and close above and hold above this red line here the tourney moving average Which comes to play out 2747 We're well above that at the moment And while we remain north of that metric the tourney moving average It's likely that we're going to see further gains from here The big area to keep on our for on the s&p 500 is this region here It comes to play in around 2815 17 20 we can see on a number of occasions back in october november and december that metric in around 2815 or 20 that acts as resistance on number of occasions So that's going to be the big area to keep on now for if you can manage to trade above it Hold above it it could potentially act as support before you kind of look to press up higher and look to go north of 2900 if the the s&p does manage to pull back a bit We could potentially see The tourney moving average 2749 or may act as support or perhaps even as low as but this the this trend line which comes to play Just south 2700 so You can see here that this trend line You can get the trend line by drawing the lows from february 2016 through november 2016 you get this trend line here How we can see it was well respected and acted as support in october and november last year Then once it broke below in december it traded aggressively below it and then a few occasions acted as resistance In the new year and then it's managed to act as support again So it could potentially act as support again should we see a move to the downside on the s&p 500 Uh, let's take a look now at the dow jones So we're moving the dow jones whereby the dow jones has had a very impressive bounce back from late december It's managed to push higher a traded a whole it's traded above and whole as held held above It's tourney moving average which comes into play at north just north of 25 000 25 000 and 67 We're well above that at the moment. We're up around 25 25 865 We're well above that the moment The next big layer to keep an eye for beyond here will be say 26 000 big psychological number And if you go beyond that the late october high of 26 278 And then if you go beyond that you could be approaching the psychological important 27 000 metric If you do see a move to the downside In the dow jones support might come into play in this red line here the tourney moving average which you come into play just north of 25 000 One of the tenants of dow theory is that the stock market averages must confirm each other And I just saw on the last chart the s&p 500 was was above its trend line support And if you draw a trend line on the dow jones, if you draw it from the lows of February 2018 to the lows of april and may 2018 because this trend line along here and similar to the s&p Where by the market was respected in october and november and then it traded aggressively below it in december but managed to act as resistance initially but then act to support again and While both the stock market Stock markets are above their respective Trend lines we can be more confident that that that upward move is going to remain It's going to remain intact. So even if you're trading the s&p 500 only It's a good idea to keep an eye on the dow jones and vice versa But if both stock markets fall back below the respective trend lines, we can become more confident that the downward trend is going to It's going to is going to kick in again Take a look now at what's going on on the gold market So gold began its bounce back in august and really since about mid november we've seen a nice Kind of a more aggressive move to the upslide a nice series of higher highs and higher lows So a classic example of an upward trend The gold market ran at the steam in around at the um Rather ran out of steam rather Ran into resistance in around 1326 We're not too far away from at the moment. So we're approaching that level again A break above 1326 might might might bring this area into play At 1335 and then if you go beyond that 1315 and potentially up to 1366 Any move to the downside and gold may find support coming to play in around the kind of 1300 1298 mark And then a move below that could see support coming to play in around the 1277 1276 area Take a look now what's going on on the old markets starting off with Brent crude So the oil market like equity has been a decent bounce back in late december Um, it managed to kind of trade sideways for a bit throughout january But we are creeping hard yet again and we have recently been hitting levels not seen Since mid november. So we are back to hitting multi-month highs for the old market It's kind of getting there slowly but surely Taking a look at the market histogram like the indicator We can see that that's there's a steady increase in positive momentum So the upward move in the underlying oil market is being confirmed by the increase in positive momentum. So For the time being the bulls are in control If the market does continue to press on higher from here We could be looking at targeting this area here at a 68 spot 36 The mid november high and if you go beyond that we could be looking at targeting the psychology important 70 bucks per barrel Any move to the downside in Brent may find some support from this line here comes into play in a 63 spot 35 And I moved below that by bringing the psychology important 60 bucks a barrel into play It's a similar situation for wti. I'll take a look at uh, west text intermediate the moment So you've seen the bounce back from um from late december the market managed to trade sideways for a number of weeks Uh in a bit in january and february, but once again, we fish multi month highs levels not seen since mid november The market's creeping higher. There's an increase in positive momentum and the MACD indicator Uh, and if you do look to press higher from here, you could be looking at targeting this area here in around the $50 a 10 And should we go beyond that we could be looking at targeting the psychology important 60 bucks a barrel Any move to the downside may get some support from this blue line here Which is just north which is just below $51 a barrel or if you go below that It might come in support might get it going to play at the $50 per barrel Mark, it's a big psychology number. It's a price action a price in area that traders will be keeping an eye on Take a look now at the euro versus the u.s. Dollar it's a broadly speaking since um Since mid january, it's broadly been pushing to the downside a lower low a lower high and another lower low Now granted, we are a bit higher today for the trend for the last number of weeks has been to the downside And if you look to press a lower from here, we could be looking at targeting this area here in at one spot 1216 Uh, and of course a break below that could could then point us towards 111 10 any move to the upside could run into resistance in around the kind of 114 115 area Like I said at the at the top of the video It was suggested by a member of the european central bank that the ecb could go down the route of potentially using targeted liquidity, which would be a form of Which would be a form of Loose monetary policy and that's why we're seeing pressure on this single currency not to mention me if i disappoint the economic indicators of eurozone In recent weeks take a look now at the pound versus the u.s. Dollar So starting as a fairly aggressive sell-off since it's going to become latest january has been pushing to the downside And if you look to continue this downward move, we could be looking at heading back down towards one spot 27 10 one once 127 Any bounce back in a in pound dollar? Make them a resistance make them into play in around the kind of 130 mark Which coincides with this red line here the turnity moving average And notice how the turnity moving average acted as fairly decent support on number of occasions in late january early february But once the market traded below it and then began to active resistance. So Between the the turnity moving average coinciding Excuse me coinciding with the kind of psychology important One spot 30 mark kind of you know adds way to the argument that that's a level that traders are going to be keeping a mile for So take a quick look now at the week ahead and the week ahead article can be found On a website if you're going to see emcee marcus.com and under new to analysis you'll find most of the articles myself and the other analyst of the other analysts poster articles too The week ahead we could see here That tomorrow we have a uk unemployment and average earnings on wednesday We have fourth quarter numbers from wal-mart And i'm sorry i apologize on tuesday tomorrow. We have fourth quarter numbers from wal-mart on wednesday We have fourth quarter figures from the cheesecake factory over the u.s On wednesday we have the fed reserve minutes these are the minutes from the january meeting when rates were left on hold So both minutes would be released on wednesday On wednesday we have full year figures from both loitz and barkley's Um, um, you all see the big the big british banks keep in mind last friday We heard we heard from robert scottland to by and large add fairly positive numbers On thursday, we have the flash pm our reports from germany and france. This is going to be of fairly big importance because um one friend's senator banker stated that The next move by the european senator bank will depend on the economic indicators and the economic health Of the region so these these figures are going to be of fairly big importance And lastly on thursday, we also have fourth quarter figures from dropbox Um, some of the articles that we do get posted to the actual website All this get posted to insights and insight is a on our training platform It can be found under the market pulse tab second option downs to keep an eye out for insights on our training platform The economic releases that can that can announce throughout throughout the day with the post insights Some of the articles that we get that we write we've got post insights as well. And it's also worth pointing out keep an eye out for chart forum chart forum is uh Is it's open to everybody with the cmc markets account for buy You can take a screenshot of a particular chart and just try to become a short column tree And what you think the price action is going to do myself and the other analysts Um regularly contribute to this section and it can be found under the uh under the um market pulse tab Lastly, um, if you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos we've made here at cmc markets Please feel free to leave a review on google reviews. And that's all for this week. Thank you very much