 Good day, fellow investor. My name is Sven Kalin and today I want to share with you my view on Tesla. I'm a value investor, so my perspective on a company like Tesla is very, very different than the majority in the current financial markets. However, I think there is some added value for everybody. Starting with the disclaimer, I love Tesla. I love what Elon Musk is doing, how he's changing the world, and I sure hope with all of my heart that he succeeds. An emission-free world would be a better world for us and for all future generations. On top of it, I was born a two-hour ride from where Tesla, Nikola Tesla, was actually born. So, I'm very, very keen on Tesla succeeding. Now, on the investment in Tesla, Model X, Model S, not profitable. So, let's say they break even, their sales have stabilized, also with declining lately. So, let's say the Tesla Model S and X are the best. However, they have also not been planned to be profitable. The plan was for the Model 3 to be profitable and to scale electric vehicle production. So, the first Model 3 was just completed, and now the goal is to increase production and to reach 5-10,000 cars per week by the end of 2018. Now, 10,000 cars per week, let's say, by the end of 2018, Tesla plans to have 430,000 of Model 3 cars produced. Now, what does this mean for an investor? Well, we simply have to add some numbers to what will go on at Tesla. The price of a Model 3 is 35,000, so add a bit of luxuries on it, simple things. Let's say the average selling price would be 40,000. 400,000 cars sold at the price of 40,000, you get 16 billion revenue per year. Average net margin, starting production, junior producer, let's say, we get 1 billion in profit after tax. Assumed production, let's say, last 10 years, the total profit is 10 billion. The present value of the profits is 6.1 billion or $42 per share. Tesla stock price is above 300. Thus, even if everything goes well with Model 3 production, the target production number is hit. People actually buy the car, they can make it at the estimated price, and they make an after tax profit of 6%, pre-tax profit of 10%. So, there is a lot that has to happen for Tesla to succeed. And even if everything happens as planned, the value of the Model 3 is just $42 per share. So, we are still left with $250 hanging in the air. No, just everybody thinks, yes, Tesla will be so successful because of their assembly line. Now, Tesla bought German KUKA robots for the assembly line. KUKA robots are produced in Augsburg. That's just a few hour ride from Daimler's headquarters, BMW, all the headquarters. So, if Musk succeeds in creating a very good production line with those KUKA robots, that by the way costed only $50 million, so all German producers will snap them in a moment and have assembly lines equal or similar to Tesla with even perhaps more productivity. Thus, we cannot expect Tesla to have incredible margins. So, Model S, Model X, zero value, Model 3, $10 billion in future profits, thus $6 billion of value or $42 per share. Not a good scenario for an investor. So, you might think, I'm short the stock. No, I wouldn't dare to short Tesla, and I'll show you why. The first reason is that if I want to buy puts on Tesla, the price is about 14% of the strike stock price. This is very expensive. And the risk is too much because I don't know, these are six-month puts, January 2018, I don't know what will happen with Tesla up to January 2018. The fact is that Elon can surprise us with something new every day. Solar roofs, power walls, integrated systems, and who knows what more. In such an environment, I simply do not invest because Tesla can go to $600 if there is enough momentum to drive the stock price higher on euphoria, but also can go to zero in the next six months, year two, three years. Especially if there is a recession and Model 3 sales do not reach targets, or people do not buy solar roofs or power wall cells. So, Tesla is a very risky investment. It's very risky to be long Tesla. It's very risky to be short Tesla. Therefore, the most logical reason to invest in Tesla is so that you can be part of the future. So that you can say to your grandchild, if Tesla succeeds, yes, I was one of the first investors in Tesla and I'm proud that I changed the world. For shorting, investing, it's more betting than real, actual investing based on numbers. And that's something I simply don't do. So I hope I haven't discouraged you from investing in Tesla if you are long or from shorting if you are short. I just wanted to give a perspective of a value investor. Thank you for watching and I'll see you in the next video.