 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 hi everyone Basil Chapman on this Tuesday the 10th of May and thank you Larry Pazavento standing for Tommy O'Brien earlier on remember we kick off here at 9 the kickoff show is Tommy O'Brien show starts at 9 we go right through to Tommy O'Brien wraps it up at fourths the sandwich effect you got the O'Brien's at either end great thing and we're looking at the Dow right now 364 32,611 really important phase and yesterday I was asked and I said I can't discuss it now but I will discuss it at some point what were the targets that I have for the Dow or the S&P or anything like that on the downside and I said I prefer not to just make a statement to kind of a bold statement that says oh that's the number because sometimes people just hang on and that's on to that well where markets change I'm going to change I'm not going to stick with a particular outcome that I expected when the conditions have changed but what I had said and I'll stick with this is at 32,000 level 32,272 was the Dow low and just open this up daily chart right here that was the low it was really imperative to see how does it hold how does the whole 32,000 area hold for the Dow I love these millennial levels the the hundreds etc it's just really important for me to look at that because it's both a psychological aspect as well as a figurative one one that's there on paper so that's number one now I can talk about something else I can say looking at the bigger picture at any time in May May is young we're only the 10th the 10th day it was a seventh trading day or something this is nothing what we're really looking at here is that if there is a close in the 31,000 under 31,900 at any point in May I have to consider that there's a chance that you've got a one-to-one to the downside from at least the 35,000 three 35,400 level this is called a 35,000 to the 32,000 that's 3000 points and that you can consider that over a period of the summer there's a chance that that would be the place that we'd be looking at and where would that be I'd say I wouldn't get too carried away I'd say 30,000 30 30,000 29,700 that whole area where it just takes out a really important number in this case 30,000 that's what I'd be looking at I don't want to go there I'm just saying there was a question and that's the way I would be looking at it as it stands right now we need to see if there's a rally this week Tuesday Wednesday going into Thursday maybe it doesn't hold into Friday but at least a rally that takes into consideration that the histogram is still weak but better than it was when the Dow was at 32,000 449 so that's an improvement the stochastic is higher than it was then the on balance volume is just okay but to be able to get the pink nine-period moving average in the Dow the steady chart above the 14 there's so much that has to happen you would have to you probably have to see the Dow trading at 32,000 500 to 32,600 by a week from yesterday by Monday a week but but it's coming Monday and that would really improve but it's going to take a lot to do that so as it stands right now yes the volatility index as I was saying in the market update at 10 o'clock is suggesting to me that a great deal of the pressure the selling pressure has been the consistent volatility index holding above 28 29 in fact for the past couple of days has been up in the 32 34 35 area now it's a 32 point 39 so what I'm looking at is by the end of the day and you really have to have the QQQ in fact in a leadership role and this particular point yeah it's in it let me just see I'll get there we'll get to the cues in a moment but at this point at 32 52 you want to see the Dow which is up 330 up about 430 after 2 o'clock this afternoon with a volatile volatility index below 3190 that would say you've got the start of potential rally in the week that could find some support and some short covering excuse me and I don't want to go into too much into the VIX right now want to go through the other indices there's just so much to do so let's get there what we're looking at is the S&P which had a nice balance it's only about so far 1.43% up 57 points at 4048 haven't gone to the 3000 I forgot to type that in the 3000 975.48 level 3978 point already forgotten for 5 level 3000 yeah 2009 2009 7 8.45 and now it's trading at 4049 that is a really nice attempt at a recovery I have said attempt of recovery because the day is still very very very young and we'll see what happens all right the MACD hasn't started improved at this point Mr. Kastick still at 16% very very weak the on balance volume is just attempting to turn up there's just a lot that has to happen go to the the 120-minute chart is seeing some kind of a turnaround that has it has the capacity to move higher towards the 4093 level 4093 level over the coming few days if in fact it takes out today's high which is 4068.82 and it needs to do that fairly soon all right let's get back to our nitty gritties here we're talking about the QQQ 123 trading at this point it's trading at 303.53 up 6.40 up 2.14 percent this is the start of a very nice leg F going to a trough F in the in the daily chart a lot needs to happen yes there's some improvement in the histogram but really that MACD means to make a W formation and that says by this afternoon the high today so far is 305.75 it's $2 below that it needs to make up at least one more dollar to the upside and preferably close towards the higher end by the end of the day and that vixen as I say can't be holding it has to be pulling back and now this is very important I forgot to discuss this yesterday the Vixen the VIXN which is the index 100 index volatility this is a volatility index and it's trading down from the high of yesterday which was just under 42 I think it was 419 inches check 4191 here we are at 39.93 the day is young this is a leg E but I don't use chapter weight methodology I always type it in but we don't expect that you know the the E or F in the volatility index that it has to turn down is an emotional indicator it's completely independent and in the moment if I remember I will discuss Vixen, 1D, Dolly, Goldie, and wait I'll be back in a moment now so we have to want to see you guys fight. 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toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Hi folks we're back and what we're looking at here is that the TLT that is once that is the yield is trading at 116.06 up a dollar 40 now the reason why for subscribers I'm opening call we wanted to go long a couple of the indices I actually had three buys and then I took one off the one I took off as you would expect is up quite sharply but that's okay because we managed to get at least one of them on a sharp dip and so far there's been a really nice rally so this is a very select market I don't want to get too carried away I'd rather I feel not confident in the sense that I don't necessarily want to go for specific stocks but rather the generic the generic index with ETF and the only reason is if there is a rally right here I need the momentum of an ETF of the components together to be powering higher I I don't feel at this particular point that I want to we've raised even a little bit more cash I'm looking I'm actually starting to look towards putting it to work in the areas that I think are just in the next four to six weeks are probably not going to be vulnerable to the vicissitudes of individual stock fallibility that's all so what I'm looking at here is the TLT and one of the reasons I did not go along the TLT even though yesterday I said you remember all week I was saying I think that the commodities are telling us if we go to DBA which is we're still long had a very sharp fallback from the 22.88 high we're long from the 13th the reason why I said that there's a chance this week that we could see a rally that just isn't an initiation rally and that rally is going to tell us in the general market I'm talking about about what's working and what's not working because if you start to see the grains pulling back which is what's really needed from a peak E in the DBA high of 22.88 early April and the weekly chart is a peak F and the monthly chart is in a leg E gotta wait the whole month but it's achieved all the things we were talking about it went to the 23 long term topping pattern that we thought would be the real test of strength let me just pull this back look that was the topping pattern that I considered a top going back it wasn't the top top goes way back to higher prices but I'm doing about June of 2016 there was a pop to the upside it went to 23.01 and then I drew in a left side right side price time match through one of the doji one of the candles that I like to choose if there's not a very obvious trough at the bottom or an arch high that says the number of bars on the left could equal the number of bars on the right so this is this is saying to me you've got one aspect that says all right commodity prices come down that's a good thing if the crude oil prices come down that's a good thing look crude oil is down another 36 cents today to one at 2.74 it failed to break into the hundred and twelve hundred and fourteen area it went to a hundred and eleven something was there a hundred and yeah 1137 on the 5th of May and now it said 102 not a big deal has been in this trading range for a little while but that's another thing that's really important that's that's that's a secondary aspect if you look at gold which is really the metals but it's just in the aspect that the dollar has held so well we've got to keep our focus on gold because gold is the geopolitical icon of turmoil and at this particular point it says the push to the 2083 level whatever the high was in the 8th of March that was exacerbated but a hook a cumulative aspect of really negative negative geopolitical economic everything was going against the market but now we've had an alleviation of that's that stress therefore we are under the 200 period moving average which was remember 1867 1865 is the level I said was a target on the downside we actually overshot that we went to the 80 1853 so 1849 level on the third it popped up to 1909 and now it's down at 1918 57 but it's now starting to form an area of support based on the up channel it's this little mini up channel here we call it the chapter we've inside track propellant zone at 1856 it says that if there's a weekly close you can have one underneath it but really a weekly close under 1843 you've gone underneath this major support level that's been a propellant zone every time the gold is gone into this range it's moved quickly up now what we're looking at is if it starts to close below 1840 for two weeks in a row let's say two weeks out of three that would say uh-oh gotta be careful because why because all of a sudden that monthly chart with the left side right side vertical price match with the technical says you've deflected lower in the monthly candle in the mag D a lot has to happen to get it back the mat the week weeklies one thing very negative but the monthly to get the monthly back the 9th period over the 14th period or 9th period differential that is in the mag D to get it back positive again you would have to see a rally to 1955 at least a hundred points up and that's going to be difficult to do unless it's just some kind of cloud conflagration that really says oh oh geopolitical aspect is back in vogue right looking at silver looking at silver down oh is it unchanged now it's up five 21.82 not a good pattern at all it's broken it's not really broken it's true line no not yet let's go from there to yeah okay if it starts if silver starts to trade on a weekly basis two out of three weeks closes underneath 21.40 and it's a 21.82 right now that'll be a native go into a week but if it bounces back above 21 21.50 that'll be okay not great but okay all right high-grade copper high-grade copper here we go high-grade copper plummets down makes a low low yesterday I'm talking about the peak D in the weekly chart remember this is the same rule of thumb a narrow rectangle formation that lost can last a lot longer than your patience watch out when it goes to a peak D above the previous highs which it did it went to the continuous contract went to 5.0625 let me type that in 5 oops 5.0625 and that was back in March I believe and now it's trading underneath the key one of the one of the support levels at 4.20 if if copper starts to go even lower it says watch out because this this market is going to become be under pressure yet again let's look at wood the ice shares grow global timber and forestry ETF wood WOD yeah it's still holding but it's on its way down here it could be doing a one-to-one to the downside hey talk about one-to-one to the downside Terry Percivento a week from today all day webinar whoo that should be fantastic this is the market this is where I think you just shoot the lights out I bet all right so we're looking at down now up to 2300 points or more of the high of the day the S&P is only up 43 now and the QQQ is still up 5 if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the 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showed this I believe I showed this to subscribers on Saturday my overview section for my overview video and I said I love this thing and hardly ever works but when it does it gives you a really good insight into the arch formation that this is the right side your lips or the right side it's called RQ I guess is a quarter of a semi-circle is a half of a semi-circle now there was a quarter of a circle RQ I think that's correct a RQ you are I think I looked that up and look at this we're in a leg D the Magdy is just the green differential 9-period difference just pulling back a little bit still very strong these stochastics at 82% but flattening out and just about to pull back a little bit still very good the relative strength is turning down on balance volume got a little overboard and now it's pulling back but this is just the start of something remember I said you might think of a stock it doesn't matter it's just the the action that can be in an up channel it just beautifully stuck in the range and then breaks to the upside when that eventually comes down it doesn't matter what it is it happens to be ABBV FV Incas pharmaceutical but it was the pattern that I was talking about and I said you could pull back and then see a plunge underneath the trend line if that is a rally afterwards that cannot get back above in this case the pink line that's gonna be negative and look what happened it eventually fell from the 175 level on the 8th of April down to 140 and now it's trying to come back and fill the gap doesn't have to be exactly the same one my point was look at this particular pattern here how it broke above this long-term trend but it started to hold it but it's creating the same kind of shorter term overboard situation that says be careful because now I'm gonna be able to draw a trend line and that trend line says this is the one we're looking at right here I've got enough moving averages etc I don't like to do this because it's really a waste you've got enough that you can look at but I do like to draw it in just to show you and then I'm gonna get rid of it this particular line I'm gonna make it read because if it goes under it that's a negative and that's your new trend line and that says if the TBT which is the ultra short limit 20 a treasury bond ETF starts to close on it out of two two out of three sessions below 25 30 25 35 is the last keys moving average support the 14 period moving average if it starts to close under that you can see a pullback that says I'm in an hour struggle and try to get back above that trend line and then if you make a little dreaded H pattern go under it you can go one to one to the downside that'll be fantastic if yields can do that so what I was saying is the reason why I thought there could be some kind of a balance in the in the in the indices is because you've got yields finally pulling back I don't know if it's impacting jets significantly here no but isn't the jets which is the US global jets ETF is up a little bit but that's not good enough I did make a second PG at the last high in the 23s and now trading in the 19.33 area this is still saying to me overall there's still a lot of negativity that has to be overcome so today's action on the close is going to be really important we'll see how that works out the other thing that I'm looking at here is let's just look at something like a CSX I haven't done that for a little while CSX I did go to down 32.97 this is the rails made an all-time high almost at 39 trading right now 32.97 and if this is a peak F you've got to take this seriously the rails could be pulling back even more and this is one of the better rails so I'm looking at this and I'm saying I don't want to get too carried away but there's a chance that we just at the moment we're just trying to formulate some kind of a base for which to rally and this rally if it does unfold it's going to tell us a lot about what's working maybe even for the next big pullback and next big rally it's going to say what do you need to look for next time all right so NKE mentioned Nike which is Nike in sports and sportswear trading at a low 110.67 this is that peak D monthly charters sell signal it's actually in a sell mode this is Nike it's a Dow stock so this is another important thing the number of Dow stocks that actually can lead us up and sustain a move to the upside is becoming far fewer and now what we're looking at also is that within the context of Nike being a global company are they being affected by the dollar what's going on is it just the inventory is whatever it is it's a key component that I like to keep an eye on we have someone in the den who kind of uses a bell a bellweather for many other things in the market and it's not doing very well it's broken his left side low of 116.75 from the 14th of March here it is at 110 6 points a lot now let's just do this looking at the Dow pulling back from the high of the day which was all the way to 32,752 we're now almost 400 points below that what a struggle for the market and that's why I'm saying to subscribers we're gonna we're stepping in but we're doing it very gingerly we built up even more of a cash position we want to put that to work one of the stocks that we bought just recently is holding really well and a stock that we wanted today which I would not have gotten at the at the open because it gapped up had a huge move up and now it's pulling back and still on my list as part of the defensive area kind of in the food stuffs and that sort of thing so there are stocks that I'm looking at in terms of six maybe even to eight to ten or twelve weeks out that are perhaps forming bases that if they can survive they could be very nice stocks in the meantime back at the ranch I don't want to get any any way carried away and say okay this is what we're looking at it should be a fantastic rally I we're not just here that this is the start the first little start I'm trying to say nice opening salvo but you got to sustain it by the end of the day Dow's only up 132 and really me I said to subscribers it needs to be up 220 or more after two 230 this afternoon the stars to fail because we're worried about the Fed tomorrow that's another thing all together all right questions came in so yes another yes a question that I haven't been talking about these things for quite a while and I don't want to do too much of it until probably about June the 20th to July the 16th somewhere in that range mid-summer and that is talk about all those aspects of the coda phase the mega bull market phase that I I don't know maybe we're never going to get there because of all the things that happen in between between interest rates the the spike in commodities and the geopolitical situation but I will be talking about them as we move on but the question came in the marrow was it any warhol's marrow no picture sold for a fortune is this is this the type of thing that I'm still looking at I know the question was I know you look at skyscrapers etc for signs of mega mega bull market tops but you know that I also look at the sales of automobiles vintage automobiles etc I look at art I look at a lot of things and we're seeing some residual things coming up now because there are still people with a lot of money that are prepared to put that to work these things that they just they it doesn't matter whether it goes up or down they can afford to buy it right so yes we're in that phase I'll be back are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st. Petersburg Tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property from maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David 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slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv i've always been back so just looking at the e-money remember peaked in the chapways what we're always looking at made a peaked at 840 pulls back made a peaked almost like a roadway of right there at 930 just at the open it ran up to the 30 4065 i believe 50 level and then it pulled back under the 200 period moving average ran up and now what we're doing is we're down at 4005 you're only up 18 and that's quite something because of the arch formation this is you see the pattern right here so this one-to-one to the downside right there now this peak c1 c2 double top from there to there when the h pattern fails you've got to be careful because you can get let me make this thicker and let me make this blue and let me do this right here new parallel and that says you could have in this particular instance i always like to be a little conservative i don't take it pure one-to-one initially i go step by step and that says key support now target and support would be at oh right there at the exact level it was made three three one minute bars ago it's three minutes ago at 403.25 so this is now an important level start to break under it and then i just simply lower this extension usually i change color it's just easy to do here and there we are pink okay so this is exactly where you've got to start to see some kind of bounce all right let's get back to that in a moment and what we're looking at here is within the context of um arkk question came up when you think it'll be appropriate to buy arkk so arkk is the arc innovation etf this is Kathy Woods and i've got to figure out now is i thought it was wood is it woods or woods let's just put this in here arkk arkk run by question mark Kathy Wood yeah that's what i thought it was it's Kathy Wood people always say woods but it's woods and then you're talking about woods it's Kathy Wood it's her etf and it's made a low a low today so the question is when you think it'll be appropriate to start uh maybe buying it because it has as you've mentioned as you've mentioned before basil it has so many of the stocks that could in fact do very well when finally the cues have a have a decent rally you know the market there's something in the market called hubris and what is hubris hubris is you know i've got this expression i haven't used it for a while when you pat yourself on the back you take your hands off the wheel to pat yourself on the back that's when you hit the tree hubris is when you think you know more than someone who's probably an expert in the field or whatever it is you've taken upon yourself to make a statement that is kind of beyond your either your intellect or your knowledge at that time whatever it is but it comes back to do what just smack you on the nose right there bam so i think that what we've seen here in kathy wood is is arrogance hubris you don't know more than the market to be putting so much money to work on stock i mean does she not do any technical analysis whatsoever and uh she might have been she might have been the the star when things were screaming to the upside but stars are made under duress how do stars manage to hold when things for whatever reason go against them and i have to tell you you just can't arbitrarily say what was the last thing i saw was that last night when i saw it the flash go by she bought general motors general motors she bought general motors general motors is at 38.46 right now i'd be talking about this remember i said we did this the other day i had a question about ford i said yeah if you want to just you know a very short and quick trade you could do it but i think forward is going to go low it's got the eiffel tower straight up straight down weekly chart and the peak d there's got a monthly peak d general motors has a peak f in the monthly chart um i didn't know how to call the latest peak i have to call it a peak c minus in the weekly chart and the peak e in the daily i just i don't think they're ready for prime time you've got this i mean has anybody tried to buy a car these days your choices i mean it's just this is what you got take it or leave a type thing number one number two is prices i don't know how negotiable prices but um inventory is so short i mean i don't know what to say i just think this needs a lot more time i think perhaps general motors looking out if i'm correct about the s and p eventually this year going to a higher high um yeah general motors trading in this 38 area if it breaks i can tell you now based on the monthly chart if it closes any week under 36 i have to look at the candle of um the of november of 2020 at 34.23 and say hey your next level of key support is 34 is she right i don't know if she's right i'm just saying that she's gone from the real tax sector to general motors this is an automobile we don't think of it as a tax sector i mean electric cars that the percentage of electric cars that general motors sells so anyway so the answer to the question is arkk you want to have quick trades no problem there whatsoever try to identify some kind of a low i think a low is coming up for arkk in the next couple of days for a decent balance but wait a minute a decent balance it was at the 46's that's six that's six points higher that's 12 13 percent on the upside just in three days you would get that if it had to run back so um you got to be careful for the longer term i've got it on my list but you know what hubris says there's a much better dials now down one point the sb is up seven huh and the qqq is still holding gains up 2.3 to 2.99 so what i am saying is that within the context of timing i think you have to wait longer for our qq and might be where she has to announce that one of her funds is folding i mean i hate to say this is a terrible thing who you know hubris or not it's just it's lousy there are people there are a lot of people that are invested in this innocently not hubris anything they just thought hey these are stocks that i like this is a fund that you know you do your homework but things come out of the blue so all i'm saying is no i don't think a rkk is for the the more longer term than just a quick trade but yes for quick trades you can use them i personally would rather go to something like the the long double or triple long the qqq and just do it that way you know exactly what you're doing you got the you got volume you've got you've got a lot of things going okay so um so and yeah so and kathy would buys yeah i think you're absolutely right to add to my life so and kathy would buys um yeah so let's just get back to our story dowsdown 18 dowsdown 27 dowsdown 30 oh look at that turn around all right we'll be back in a moment and oh no questions that come in i'll do them just as we're wrapping up the show sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger 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is most likely to generate signals which signals to ignore and how to use the pattern to mitigate risk in this all-day five-hour live trading webinar take a seat by larry side as he trades the market's real time including the dow and smp 500e mini crude oil natural gas gold treasury bonds wheat and soybeans the euro dollar pound dollar dollar yen and more if you've ever wanted to get inside the mind of a market master you cannot miss this live trading webinar to sign up today just visit the front page of tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com hello so let me just do this jimmy wanted to know about ccj ccj is chemical meco corporation uranium energy 32.49 was on April the 15th pulls back really sharply it hit the 20s yesterday jays at 2150 so this is really important for a number of reasons why because peak e in the weekly chart and a potential peak f in the monthly are we saying that the whole area of the the ukrainian issue together with um maybe russia together with other countries that produce so many of these raw materials um i'll be saying that this the issue is now not there anymore i don't know but the chart is saying you know what we kind of done with all that even if i look at the um even if i'm looking at where was it what was i looking at just a moment ago ccj i want oh yeah you know if you're looking at things like ipi haven't done that in a few days ipi made a peak did 121 this is interpret potash coming down from 121 to 60 to 61 i didn't even realize it could cut in half is this saying that a chunk of what we're looking at that was a big big issue is now dissipating as an issue i don't know but we've got the china lockdowns you cannot ignore that that's an issue with um getting all these different products to market that's a big issue so i think what we're looking at here is that some of the deeper issues have been resolved in say by the marketplace itself but some have not look at crowd which is a crowd is crowd crowd strike cyber security i can't believe that i to this day i've been saying it for a year why are all the cyber stocks screaming to the moon everybody needs cyber and if you don't pack which is the ETF is down sharply from 67 down to 45 so this is a different market to one of you see in the long term not only that but you can get money going from activities to bonds is this particular big seller this is different to other markets i would be surprised if the bell actually closed something like this again see you later president and coming to me one of the show