 Hello, let me introduce myself. I am Haline Meisler. I cover the US stock market for realmoney.com and if you want to find me, you can find me there or you can find me on Twitter or X or whatever they call it at H Meisler and I would highly recommend that if you'd like to follow me on Twitter. I do do a chart fest for free every Saturday morning US time and so Come on over and join us Anyway, this is where that I currently see the state of the US markets short-term Nobody needs to tell you we're overbought. I mean, you know the month of November has been spectacular You can see the big move from oversold in late October up until the overbought condition now You know, but that's short-term One thing I would notice that I would consider a Short-term negative in the market is that the overbought condition We actually reached it almost a week or so ago and we came off and now we're struggling to even get back to that Same overbought condition. So that just shows you how we've really lost a lot of the momentum in the market right now on a short-term basis But I like to look at the market Let's take a step back and look at the market on an intermediate term basis and on an intermediate term basis The first thing I look at is what direction are the majority of stocks going and for that I use the McClellan summation index and you can see that bottomed in Early November and has been on a tear to the upside It is also if you take a look It is also the first time that it's made a little higher high since it turned down in August The other thing I would point out here is that it's currently around minus 100 and the summation index if you look at that zero line rarely Curls back over Before it crosses the zero line So I would expect that before this rally runs out of steam even even if it runs out of steam in the short term We would then rally again, but on an intermediate term basis But before this rally, you know, you could call it could put and done I would say I think this is going to get over the zero line but this this indicator tells us what the majority of stocks are doing and Despite all the complaining about the magnificent seven and as I call it the other 493 The majority are most stocks have been going up in the month of November and Now on an intermediate term basis I like to use a 30-day moving average of the advanced decline line to determine when we might be Intermediate term overbought Well, it looks like we're a little overbought here. That's exactly all we are just a little overbought It's I don't I just think this would be a pause that refreshes I'm thinking early December we come down We're a little choppy and then we probably rally again in you know the latter part of December Or something along those lines and that's probably around when we'd end up at a full overbought condition You can see how much more overbought we were going into that July August high or even into the February high last year We're just not nearly as overbought as we were despite the rally that we've had in November So that's on it again an intermediate term basis, which is different than the short term and here's another indicator I use this is a little bit different and that it's got I look at What the upside volume is as a percentage of total volume, and then I smack it on a moving average Anyway, when we get down to the low 40% area, which we got down to just over 42% in late October I consider that oversold What I consider overbought is something in the mid to upper 50s And once again, you can see that we got to 57 just a little bit over 57% in July Even last February we got almost to 59% So we're not there. Heck at the may at the early May high Having rallied off that bank crisis low in March We were at 54% so right now we're at 51% Which tells me we're sort of getting towards overbought, but we're not overbought yet again on an intermediate term basis Now on a little bit of a shorter term basis One thing I like to watch is the number of stocks making new highs and you can see that the number of stocks making new Highs on the New York Stock Exchange peaked last week around 120 Yesterday's big rally up that would be Monday the 20th of November the big rally Couldn't even get to a hundred new highs. That's a short term negative divergence. And again that goes along with the short term overboughtness if We back off and rally again as I expect we will and the next rally We cannot get over a hundred and twenty new highs then I consider it an intermediate term negative And then it becomes very concerning. So for example, again, let's go back to that July high Look at that big peak over two hundred and twenty new highs That showed up believe it or not in late June and Every subsequent high in the market is that we got in July all the way till August kept having fewer and fewer new highs That is bearish So right now I'm willing to give it some chance To prove that after we have an oversold overbought pullback and we rally again. We can have more than a hundred and twenty new highs But that still remains to be proven But right now I considered this just a short term overbought problem in terms of sentiment I like to look at several different indicators. One is the investors intelligence bullish percentage and We will get the new readings tomorrow I do expect tomorrow's readings to be higher than last week, but so far we're sitting at 50% bulls which is Leaning More bulls and bears obviously, but it's nothing earth shattering notice again last summer We got to 56 percent bulls So generally speaking what I like to use here is when you get over 55 percent bulls So 55 60 percent bulls to me is way too many It remains to be seen Tomorrow on Wednesday the 22nd we will get a new reading because this comes out every week I do expect it to be higher. I don't know if it'll be quite 55 percent yet, but we will see So I would consider this right now Not yet too giddy Also, I look at the CBO put call ratio on a 10-day moving average and when it's high You start to get bullish in the market. You can see the big high Heading into 2023 you can see the big high in October earlier this year. You can also see What happened in July when it got all the way down to near 80? 80 on the ratio Right now it is taken the month of November You can see the ratio has hardly come down at all. It is just started to move lower in the last week All right, so that tells you people are starting to accept the rally but the 10-day moving average is still over one and Again, if you look even in February it got down to what about 88 or 90 and and again in July you got all the way down to 82 and a half so With the currently over one you can't say everybody's all in it feels like they are but statistically speaking They're not there yet. I Also like to look at the ISC call put ratio. So think of it like the put call ratio in verse So low readings here are bearish for the market I'm sorry are bullish for the market and high readings are bearish for the market Here you can see and this tends to be more retail than institutional here. You can see a Major move everybody was all in at the July high. They were all in at the February high and Then you can see even what the year 2022 looked like all the way on the left side where you got up to 120 Not once but twice But notice that we got all the way down To 90 Down there in October Which to me was bullish and now we are sitting at 110 This has moved a lot faster with a lot more acceptance of the rally than the CBOE options have But in general it's not yet at 120 so it's in the process of gaining bullishness We are not extreme yet Is it possible that by the time all the intermediate term indicators get overbought? This could be at 120 Entirely possible And that's what I would watch for One other thing I would watch for regarding this ratio is that it normally if you squint real hard You can see it normally gets up to 120 takes a breather and then comes back up and tries it again It usually what I call double taps it So the first hit to 120 is not always the most bearish Usually you have to come back and then go up again And so that's what I would look for I would be focusing on this because I think this is a little bit cleaner and a little bit clearer Than the CBOE, but I do like it when they both confirm each other and Then here's one other that that is easy to watch this is the National Association of Active Investment Managers and every Wednesday, they are asked what their exposure to the market is and You can go to their website it comes out US time maybe around 10 or 11 a.m. On Thursday mornings and this week maybe not because it's Thanksgiving here in the US, but Currently their exposure to the market is sitting at 72. You can see at the lows they got down to 22 Which is quite low and therefore bullish, but again look at July they were on margin. They were over 100 So again, we see the change in sentiment, but we don't see any extremes yet That's what I would watch for If we get this pullback short term and then another rally again, maybe into your end That's what you start to look for is how much people have changed their sentiment. Are they too complacent? Are they too giddy? So I want to finish off with a look at bonds and the dollars here the yield on the 10 year has come off quite a lot it's sitting, you know around 440 right now and I think it's eventually coming down on an intermediate term basis to 420 And you can see why we've got an uptrend line that comes in around there You've got a flat support line that comes in around there And then I have to have another look my guess is interest rates have peaked at Around 5% on the 10 year, but that doesn't preclude that we're that we can have Rallies where you know the rate goes from let's say 430 back to 460 or 470 and get and we can have a little scare in the market But that's what I would look for on the yield on the 10 year and this obviously goes hand-in-hand with the dollar index I Think the dollar index peaked in early October also notice that the dollar index peaked in early October, but stocks Didn't bottom until late October. So that was a divergence that was worth watching the dollar leading Right now you can see the dollar is coming off. I think the dollar is likely to find a low Somewhere in that call it 102 ish 101 102 ish area again on intermediate term basis Now what I want you to just notice though is that if it comes down there Chances are well, we may turn bullish on the dollar again But right now I think the dollar is headed down there on an intermediate term basis again Doesn't preclude short-term oversold rallies in it, which probably we should get But because I don't think anything goes down in a straight line, but that's where I think that's headed and I'm gonna finish off with one chart and it's a very funky looking Head and shoulders bottom. I grant you that but I think the X and me which is metals and mining looks to me like it wants to break out over that 54 area and That's kind of also if you think about it metals and mining would be helped by a lower dollar So all of that seems to work together. So in conclusion short term very short term. We are overbought A correction should should occur. We should that should be followed by another rally Where then we start looking for interim possible intermediate term overbought conditions and possible too much bullishness in the market So that's where I stand. I hope everybody has a very good holiday season