 We know in the next couple of days or so there is going to be a definitive opinion of what's going to happen next, you know, we know the levels, right, you know, three... Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. So let's talk about the take real quick. Again, three days now in a row, right? Three days in a row. We're stuck in this little, little channel here, right? You have three days in a row that we got rejected off the five day moving average going higher, and we are three days in a row that held the bottom range here on the 10 day moving average. So nothing has changed. We're in this kind of spin cycle. What's good is that the volatility that we talked about last week that I thought was going to start coming to an end this week was gone, was absolutely gone, and that was great. We saw very, very orderly, basic, organic moves today in the morning, especially names like Tesla, especially names like NVIDIA, like Amazon, Rivian to the downside as well. So things slow down and that's a good thing. And I say this all the time. Don't confuse average shoe range with volatility. Nobody likes volatility. Average shoe range is what beta names are. Every single day, these things could trade in any given day, a channel of 20, 30, 70, 80 points, like we saw today with Amazon. But the overall market when we discussed on the weekend update, again, only seven stocks started the day above supply on the NASDAQ 100. That's not a bullish thing. That's obviously something that should be concerned. And the more important part is we are, again, underneath the 200 day moving average and nothing good is going to happen underneath the 200 day moving average. But the good news is something has to give here. And the longer the bullish case is, well, we are keep on holding the 10 day moving average. We're not going lower. The bearish case as well. You guys keep on trying to remount the five day moving average and getting rejected. So we know in the next couple of days or so there is going to be a definitive opinion of what's going to happen next. We know the levels, right? We know 362 continues to be to the upside. 352 considers to be to the downside. So one of those channels when they do confirm in price and they start building basically price action either above or below. It's either a big green or a red light. But if you start looking at individual names, you have to continue to start being worried. I mean, look at Google. Google came out with earnings. They had that really good 20 for one stock split. It hasn't had a green day. It hasn't had a green day since it came out with earnings. And it's kind of completely filling in this whole channel here. Tesla that had the opportunity to really bust out today above the 20 day supply. It failed. It gave us a pretty good pivot first, but it failed. And now you can see the bottom of this channel is setting up fairly well. A name, for example, like a Rivian, right? It lost the five. It got rejected off the five day moving average three days in a row. It closes the lowest close in this whole formation. If this thing starts taking out this whole channel here, right? This thing's going to start its next leg down to last week's lows. And that's a lot of names, right? There really is a lot of names. You can make a case where Amazon is holding up very well. Absolutely. It actually absolutely is. But guess where it got rejected from? It got rejected off the 50 day moving average today. So it's very, very tough to get excited about the long side, right? The macro long side until we at least reclaim the five day moving average on the cues before we could start talking about reclaiming the 200 day moving average on a broader basis. And that's kind of what we are. So you're probably going to see a very methodical day tomorrow, right? You know, definitely tradeable. I definitely like some ideas both to the long side, to the short side. But more important is I think the overall market until we kind of make our way either above that channel or below, it's going to take its time. A lot of people are going to sit there. They're going to get frustrated. You're going to use the word chop. It's not chop. They're just sitting in the middle of the channel. So why would you make a claim? Why would you try to make a directional bet if the cues are really blatantly telling you they're in the middle of this channel? There's no reason to. You have to just wait till they either get above or get below before making bets. So, you know, understand the difference between a distribution market that is trying to go a sideways action than a market that's trying to use a chop factor, right? Which chop factors usually take place rounding bottoms and rounding tops. Right now we're just kind of trapped in a channel. So going into tomorrow and again, sometimes you have to just let things play out and there's definitely going to be opportunities for these things to play out. But more important, you have to wait, especially if it's your niche sector, niche sector, the way you want to pronounce it. Like look at names, for example, like IBM. IBM had some pretty good earnings. It's just kind of flagging. Listen, the market wakes up. Can this be a nice move? Sure, absolutely. You get a name like Citibank. You have some of these banks that are starting to finally firm up a little bit. Look at Citibank. Nice long distribution here. If the banks wake up here and they start, you know, making that whole talk about interest rate hikes again, maybe they wake up, right? Maybe the whole group wakes up as well. You know, even names, for example, on the upside, NVIDIA, right? NVIDIA looks pretty good. Doesn't look great for overall macros bucket, but again, it's tied to this area now. Twice got rejected off the same area. We saw some 250, 750 weekly calls coming in. You know, maybe this thing wakes up as well. A Facebook, right? It seems like it's going to zero. And maybe it does. Probably I'm joking. You have Peter Teal getting off the board, residing from the board of directors today after the close. There's going to be a trade in Facebook. And it's not the downside. Let the market kind of watch the sucker out, right? And I started watching it today. I'll be watching it tomorrow. Let them wash it out. Let them do the heavy legwork for us. Let them clean up whatever sellers they have left. And eventually there will be some intrinsic value in the trade and eventually they will trap some late eager shorts at the bottom of the range and maybe get a dead cat bounce. I think in the next day or two, you're probably going to get a dead cat bounce on Facebook. Is it possible it goes down to 220, 215 first? Yeah, of course. Again, nobody's trying to pick a bottom. We just want to be conscious of the idea that it could wash out the next day or so and give us a pretty good opportunity. Look, the stock has gone from 328 to 220. You tell me we can't get a $10, $15 bounce in the next couple of days. So something definitely for us to watch. Look at a name like TMUS. I had pretty good earnings now. It's just kind of consolidating, right? Below daily supply. It looks pretty good. If it could just start getting above the supply, it could start its next leg up. And again, a name like Tesla gave us pretty good opportunity today. Pretty quick, pretty aggressive. But again, it's gotten rejected. If it starts losing this 10-day channel here and starts losing this bottom of the range here, guys, look how much room it has. This isn't a trade for a scalp. This is a major directional bias here in the next couple of days if it indeed so confirmed. So kind of going into tomorrow, we're in Laulaland. There's going to be some longs. There's going to be some shorts. The point is don't anticipate. Don't anticipate one side or the other trying to confirm. Let it play out. Again, you don't need to be the first kid in the pool every single day and put on 200 different trades until macro levels to start getting confirmed. Relax. Learn to relax. Again, if you don't put on 10 trades at 9.31, I promise you your day is not over, right? Let the market play out. Let the song and dance play out. Let all the noise play out. Understand a directional bias. Understand a trend that's forming. Without a trend, understand undenounced buying, it's going to be very, very tough to squeeze water out of a rock. And right now we're in a very, very tough rock. We're in a very tough situation right now because the market's just not giving us a directional look. Will there be a trade tomorrow through alongside to the short side? Absolutely. But if you're looking for a directional trade, we need to let these things kind of play out organically. It might take a day. It might take tomorrow. It might take two days. We don't know. We're not in a rush. There's absolutely no reason to try to force the issues. Some days you try to dissect the technical analysis. You try to dissect the news. You know, this is kind of phase value, right? Let it play out nice and calm. There is no rush. Make it to the next day. But more important, make it to the next day with value. Guys, have a great night. God bless and I'll see you all tomorrow.