 Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hicks. Every trading day, folks, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, we talked to our man, Kevin Hicks, from TD Ameritrade Network Fast Market. I was in Monday mode, but we talked to Kevin, because it's Tuesday, the first trading day of the week. Kevin Hicks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yep, it feels like a Monday, but it's actually a Tuesday, Tommy. So, you know, this market is, you know, I just talked to Oliver Renick, and I proposed this question, Tommy. What if you're preparing for a storm that never happens? Right? And that's what maybe you're seeing in this market and why it's up today. You know, put call ratios at spike, drone piles of rhetoric a week ago, Friday, really surprised the market and sent us down from $4,200 to basically right around $3,900 on the S&P, without doing anything to interest rates or anything all on rhetoric, Tommy. And then Friday's number came out, strong employment number. There's not one part of that that's not favorable to the overall market, and yet the market continues to struggle. But put call ratios, remember, are that counterintuitive trade, right? The higher that number gets, the more bullish it is. And what you may be seeing here is when you're long a bunch of puts or long a bunch of downsides, you ever have to do one or two things. You have to unwind that or you have to buy something against it, right? To make that trade whole. So maybe that's what you're seeing here today. Just a bunch of people saying, all right, this market's moved down far enough. I get drone piles of rhetoric, but the overall data is pretty solid. So how far do you wanna go, the market go down with good economic data, Tommy? And it is pretty interesting, Kevin, right? When you think about the chairman and the Federal Reserve, I was thinking about this when he came out with his comments on Jackson Hole and the market reacted so ferociously, that it's almost a lesson. I'm not sure game theory, because it's not a game, man, but if you were playing a game in that all he has to do is change the mindset of the market. He doesn't actually have to do anything with the interest rates. It can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you just freak everybody out to the degree that they think you're gonna raise enough, it actually fulfills the goal of what you're trying to do, which is to get the mindset of the market participants kind of on board with what they think is happening. And maybe, so maybe it doesn't have to be as strong. Now that is probably a not best case scenario, but a pretty good case scenario right now with where we are in the Fed. As in, you know, they changed the mindset. They don't have to be as strict with some of those rates and we're gonna see if it plays out. But I was thinking about that same thing saying, you know, it doesn't have to go that way, especially if the market reacts that quickly right away. Well, that did it, man. It didn't do it completely, but it definitely helped some of what he's trying to achieve in this market going forward. I wanted to touch Kevin real quick cause we got some currency action this morning, man, the dollar charging higher yet again, the yen up to 142, you could make the case, man, even gold, it's been quite a pullback. But what do you think of some of the currencies charging higher and we haven't seen as big of maybe a pullback as you maybe could think on some of gold in particular, what do you think of the dollar index right now charging higher, the yen at 142 this morning? Yeah, I think that's what this week is gonna be about, Tommy. It's gonna be about currencies. There's really no top tier economic data this week. We're very thin in terms of earnings. So European central banks with a new prime minister, they're gonna move markets, right? You've already seen some interest rates move this morning out of foreign central banks. So I think the news flow that we're gonna see for this week is gonna be more in currencies. And you can see our yields are higher, our dollars higher to start the day pretty significantly now trading over 110 and Tommy, stacks are up. So something's gotta give here. And so we're gonna see how this plays out during the day but I think currencies and commodities in general are gonna take over this market this week. Yeah, I would keep your eyes on it, folks. Some great points, man, because it caught my eye this morning, Kevin. And I'm not, lately I've been keeping my eye on those currencies yields, how they're just all such a factor right now across the whole globe. But they really hit me this morning. I said, man, we got some action to your point as well. We get the 10 year off 19 ticks. Last time I checked at the start of the show we're at 3.26% the yield on the 10 year. You mentioned to Kevin, not a ton of companies with earnings as we round out the quarter. What are you guys talking about though as we come into September trading on fast market at 12 today? Well, look at three good names that were a little bit all over the board, but we're gonna look at FedEx and then we're gonna look at Shopify, like earlier, it's gonna do presentation on Shopify. And then we're gonna look in the final segment on Southwest Airlines, the leader in basically domestic travel, Tommy. And we're gonna look with the overall capacity numbers coming down for airlines. We're gonna trade airlines for this in the first one. So FedEx, Shopify, Southwest Airlines. Three great companies, man. A storyline to go with each one of them in terms of how things are changing right now. FedEx, you're back to two away from 319. Shopify, boy, TFNN, we use Shopify. Great platform, outstanding platform. Well, you talk about getting ahead of itself to 176. We're back to 30. And airlines is a perplexing one, right? I mean, travel taking off, but then the argument, of course, we got crude prices at pretty historic levels, cost rising, human capital, trying to get airline pilots, even an issue. And of course, flight attendants as well. Southwest basically getting cut in half almost at 36 down from 64. Well, Kevin, we appreciate the time you take with us every morning, man. We'll be watching at 12 o'clock today. You have a great one. Thanks for having me on time. Have a great day. Always a pleasure. Folks, tune in every trading day, 12 noon Eastern time, you heard it. FedEx delivery packages, right? From 319 to 208, they're dealing with rising costs as well. Shopify, ooh, strong company in terms of the foundation they're built on, the platform that they are allowing companies to build out that small business enterprise online. Well, man, you talk about a give back from 176 to 30. Keep in mind, folks, you came into 2020 at 40 to $45. You came in in February at almost 60, okay? And you are at a COVID level of 30 bucks. So this thing is trading right now below the peak of bottom of COVID. You talk about getting out of whack, man. Shopify, and what was there? Southwest, they'll be talking about it. And Airlines is an interesting one. If you can solve that one in terms of figuring out, they're gonna have a sustained level of demand for a foreseeable future, but they are dealing with some issues, man, whether it's cost, whether it's human capital, right? Whether it's getting airline pilots and flight attendants and just the workers necessary to run the routes that they need to and then add on top of that some crude prices, which make things very difficult. Back to 36, not a lot of people coming out of the pandemic probably thought that Airlines, we're gonna get beaten down as we wanted to travel yet again. But boy, you gotta diversify, folks, because you never know more than the market as we found out pretty, pretty dramatically over the last three years. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, thanks to my producer for getting me on board, and we'll just jump right into the article. Morgan Stanley's Wilson sours on U.S. earnings amid growth jitters, jumping into earnings, okay? Now, this is one of the biggest bear cases out there, okay? Morgan Stanley's Wilson sours on U.S. earnings amid growth jitters, this is one analyst's take, okay? But what I find useful is understanding how some of the smart people out there on Wall Street, and you might like Michael Wilson over at Morgan Stanley, you might not, okay? But look at the possibility of what they're stating and then you assign a probability to that take, okay? Many times you'll see all the strategists will be saying one thing and they'll all be wrong, okay? So I understand that part of it as well. But I think this take is an important one because we're coming into very difficult times still, okay? And one of the biggest bear cases out there is that we haven't seen the earnings destruction yet that everybody's been talking about, okay? That is what would do it, folks. And why? Because not because of inflation, but because of recessionary influences, we'll call it. Cut the expectations for earnings per share growth for the year, this is Wilson saying that a slowing economy is now likely a bigger concern for stocks rather than scorching inflation as a hawkish and a hawkish federal reserve. In 2023, he expects earnings to fall 3% even in the absence of a recession. Again, he's not calling for even a recession, okay? But he's talking about a slowing economy. So what happens if you hit a recession, right? If he's the biggest bear on the market and he's not even talking about a hardcore recession, think about the possibilities that might be possible and an earnings rent alone, okay? Now, here's the part I wanted to get to, this one line. We think the next several quarters will end up containing some of the most significant downward revisions to forward earnings per share forecast. We have seen in the past several cycles, not the last several years, the last several cycles. This is what happens in a cycle, okay? Forward earnings get revised downward when a downward cycle appears, okay? That's a note out today. Now, this is not forward. This is what's happened over the last 13 weeks. Earnings downgrades, outperforming upgrades for 13 weeks. Now, many have said it could have been a lot worse, okay? And you gotta give credit, okay? That he's been on this a bit as we've had some tough times in the market and he's been a bear, he expects the lows for the bear market will likely arrive in the fourth quarter with the S&P falling to 3,400 points, 13% below current levels and to as low as 3,000 in the event of a recession. I had to do some, is that only, I guess that's only 13% below. Yeah, I guess so. You know, what ends up happening is you're used to a number of 4,800, right? We're sitting at 4,800, 4,800. You're talking about some big numbers. You're talking about 500 points is 10%. Well, guess what? 500 points right now is about 13%. And to as low as 3,000 in the event of a recession. A lot of people be pretty flipped out, man. If the S&P is going up to 3,000 folks, that'd be a 25% pullback from where you're at right now, okay? But please, if you're in this market, at least be okay if that happens because it is possible. Many times that's something that people don't do well enough, okay? You need to assign a possibility to something and if that possibility is greater than 0%, make sure you're okay with that probability and really what it means, you know? Like yeah, we all go outside, okay? Every time you go outside, you get in a car. There's probably unfortunately a one in 10 million chance that you may get in a bad accident and somebody may die or some statistic like that, right? So that's a chance. We take that chance, we're okay with it because it's one in 10 million, it's 100 million. Whatever it is, okay? Maybe even much more likely than that, but whatever it is. But are you okay right now in the market if there's just even a 10% chance? Many times what our minds can do and this is shifting but so much of what we do folks is mentality, okay? You can understand what to do but having the mentality to do it, whether it's talking about exercise, activity, eating right, risk control, okay? Taking profits without having a fear of missing out, right? Abstaining from entering a position, being okay with having that fear of missing out, having the mentality to do what you think is correct in a variety of motions, okay? So let's say you say that there is a 5% to 10% chance that this thing goes back to 3,000. Many times in our brain we'll say, that's a one out of 10 that's never gonna happen and you're right nine out of 10 times, okay? But what people don't understand is you're making those calculations so often that a one out of 10 is actually gonna happen very often if you're in the market for an extended period of time. You're gonna run into many one out of 10, one out of 100, one out of 1,000, okay? One out of 10,000, one out of a million, you're gonna run into one out of 100 million. People hit the lottery every single day folks, one out of 225 million, all right? They don't hit it every day but they hit it often enough, right? Every lottery jackpot has been hit. There's not a lottery jackpot out there that has not been won and the odds of doing that are won in hundreds of millions of dollars and every time it gets done because they do come out if you run those numbers enough. So be aware that those will come in, I tell you, playing a bunch of poker, I bring it up sometimes with poker, it's a game of strategy, it's a game of probabilities, okay? It's a game of expected value, mathematical calculations purely based on straight up probabilities, okay? But the cool thing about poker is that even if you get the probabilities right, there's still a luck element, okay? Because many times all the money goes into the middle when there's still a luck element to be considered. Cards are still ready to be dealt, there's still, you know, in craps there would still be a die to be cast, okay? But the number of hands I played online folks and I played millions, literally millions of hands, I played multiple tables 10 to 20 at a time, I had tracking software, it was all legitimate, it's how the online poker revolution went that I would track my hands using a statistical tracking piece of hardware that would track your probabilities, it would track your opponents, how often they were opening hands, how often they were raising, how often they were raising and then folding to a re-raise, right? So that allows you to play many, many tables. Point being, I played millions of hands. Folks, I saw everything out there because you run those numbers enough, it's gonna happen, okay? You hear all these stories of bad beat jackpots in live casinos, okay? They happen every single day online because people are playing so many hands. In a casino, you're playing 20 hands an hour, one table. Online, you're paying 60 hands an hour, sometimes 20 tables. I've even lost with four aces, folks. I had two aces, two aces came on the flop, ace, ace, three with two diamonds out there. Two guys went all in before it even got to me. I couldn't believe it, it was a cash game online. I call, the river comes at five at diamonds, somebody else wins the money, they had two forward diamonds for a straight flush, beat my quad aces, it happens, folks. We'll finish this conversation up, stay tuned, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. 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We were as high as 12,240. You give up 150 points just like that. We're bouncing around Russell, negative as well. Russell gives it back. Crude, up 66 cents right now, trading at 87.55. We look at the gold contract, negative $3 at 17.19. Let's check out notes and bonds. Look at this, man. Look at this. So what is this about? In terms of is this higher rates coming? We have lower price and higher yield right now. We were 3.26% when I started the program. We're 3.31% right now, the yield on the 10 year. We are literally at the tick of Thursday's low right now, 115.24. So we're getting lower price. We're getting higher yield. What happens when you have a higher yield in America? People want to buy your dollars to buy dollar denominated bonds to get that yield. So what happens? If you get a higher yield, what are they gonna do? They're gonna buy your dollars, the dollar at 110.24, man. We jump over to that yen. See how it's trading right now. I mean, that's continuing to climb, folks. These are five minute bars. We just hit a high of 140.254. And yeah, if you're planning to go to Europe, man, we are under 99, no longer at parity. Under 99 on the Euro, US dollar this morning, 98.95 sitting right at the lows. Now, what's interesting is the Euro, when we were talking to our Manitetti cakes that last week, we were commenting how the Euro was kind of chopping around right where it was at July 14th, okay? We made us 99.50, 99.51 to be exact, was the low, excuse me, we started talking about parity at that point. Now, you look at the pound US dollar, though. Look at that destruction, okay? That was 118 when you were at the July 14th low. You just made it to 114.43 on that pound US dollar. And yeah, I mean, that's a pretty clear downtrend channel on both of these. The pound, maybe even more so than the Euro. Now I'm using two different lines here, you can see, but on the bottoms there, all we did is bounce off that trend line to the bottom. That trend line is pushing 45 degrees to the downside on the pound US dollar. So finishing up that conversation real quick on risk, okay? I was just talking about when you see that type of a distribution in terms of a sample size, it really opens you up. I was playing sometimes a thousand hands an hour is what it would be, folks. So I could play eight, 10 hours a day. I was doing it and making pretty decent money. You play eight to 10,000 hands a day. I played tournaments as well. I love playing tournaments. Lot more volatile playing tournaments. So the cash games and focusing on it and bringing a very mathematical business-like probability-based statistical approach to the game. You play 8,000 hands a day, man. You see the type of moves. Now that makes you very aware of the short-term variants that sometimes can occur. And I was just going through, man, I'm gonna have to find some of these great charts I have sometimes, folks, okay? Because I would, you really see the swings you can have even over large sample sizes, okay? This is just one example. I'm gonna pull up here, okay? Now I'm gonna explain this chart to you real quickly, okay? In poker, the green line we're looking at here that is bright green. It's unfortunate that they're not different colors, but this is how the charting software was at the time. The bright green line is the one that really matters. That's straight up cash. That is my winnings. That's real dollar value. Okay, so this was playing poker over a period of 300,000 hands, okay? Now, fortunately, that was only a period of about a month at some times, okay? And if you play very steadily, you're gonna have month-long swings that vary dramatically, okay? Now, the line on the top, the thin line, is what is referred to as all-in expected value. As people in the market, you should understand that you have an expected value, okay? So to put this in context, let's say you go all in with pocket aces and somebody calls you with pocket tens. They have two tens in their hand, you have pocket aces. You go all in for $100, they call you for $100. The pot size, taking rake out of it, is $200, okay? I, with pocket aces, have an 80% probability to win that hand. The person with pocket tens has a 20% chance to win that hand. Their expected value, when they go all in for $100 versus me, I call it $100, the pot is $200, their expected value is 20% of that pot. Their expected value is $140, mine is 160 because I have an 80% probability. My all-in expected value is $160 at that point. So the thin green line gives me 160. The real line gives me whatever the pot goes to. So when that person happens to hit a 10 and they have three tens, they beat my aces, what happens? Well, I lose $100 instead of making 60 as I was intended to, right? I would get zero from that pot as opposed to getting 160, which is my expected value. In poker, what you really should care about is what happens when the money goes all in because if you think you have an advantage, you can't be worried about what happens because you better be excited to get your money in 80, 20 on somebody and you can't be worried about the short-term outcome that one out of five times, you're gonna lose that money, man, when you got it all in with aces and they called you with pocket tens. Now, this is 300,000 hands, folks, okay? And over 300,000 hands, look at the discrepancy of the run bad that continued. As in, you have the line on the bottom was my winnings, okay? Even when my all-in expected value at about 220,000 hands was pushing $6,300. And these are for games where you're buying in for about $100 to $200, okay? This chart consisted of games where if you play poker, the small blind was 50 cents and the big blind was a dollar. Most times you would be buying in for 100 big blinds which is $100 or games where the blinds are $1 and $2 where you're buying in for $200 for 100 big blinds. In casinos, they don't even offer 50 cent, $1 blinds, okay? The cheapest game in casinos usually is $1, $2, but in online, that's actually a very expensive game with very, very sophisticated, well-to-do players because you can play so many hands and make so much money over the volume you can play and because more inferior, less educated, less skillful players are able to play much cheaper games where you can buy in for a dollar, you can buy in for five, you can buy in for 10, you can buy in for 20, you can buy in for 50. There's a whole level of games online because they don't have as many costs. We're turning this into the nine-minute poker segment but it's important from a risk perspective, folks, because if you look at this chart and you understand it, over 300,000 hands, okay? I lost about four grand. As opposed to normally I make about two grand and even that was a pullback from the expected value that I was pushing on 300,000 hands. Most of the time, you could push $10,000 easy in all unexpected value, it was basically the run that I was on on a monthly basis, playing these games on this type of number but look at over 300,000 hands, the difference you have, all right, even on that pullback and that is just the statistical difference once the money goes all in and there's just cards to come and the difference that that number is pretty staggering and it teaches you where you wanna be when you think about outlying risk as we got a market that's turned red. Stay tuned, folks, we'll come back to finish it up. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. 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You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks, and just like that, as we've been talking about probabilities and assigning probabilities and maybe assigning probabilities to a bear case scenario and making sure that you're protected if a market does trade to that area, markets are in a selloff, man. We got right across the board right now with the S&Ps down 13, NASDAQ 100 down 62, the Dow off 107. You're talking about an S&P right now at 3911. Think we're about, what, 810 points? Yeah, 3903, seven points away from Thursday's low. And we're talking about on Friday, which is almost 24 hours, 24 trading hours ago. Okay, Friday, we were pushing 4,020. We're more than 110 points off of that low. Checking out where that low actually was on Friday, 3906, so you're within about five points of the lows on the S&Ps right now. Let's see how currencies are moving. Crude 8706 right now, that gold contract. Down $2 at 17.19. We jump over to the dollar index right now. Continued strength, almost at highs right now, 110.29 on that dollar index. And yeah, you talk about movements and notes and bonds as well. You've down 29 ticks and we're sitting with the yield of 3.31% the yield on the 10 year. We jump over to the Euro-US dollar. This is just huge moves, man. Since 3 a.m. this morning, we were almost at parity and now we're at 98.8 in the Euro-US dollar from that US dollar yen, man. Yeah, 142.39. That's a 30 minute bar. So we just made a new high as the market opened within the last 30 minutes. Yeah, right on the open, 142.54 US dollar yen. Oh, not really a lot of strength right now folks, as we come in and just make sure that you're protected if it does happen. Because guess what? If we've learned anything folks, the market always knows more than you do, man. And don't think that something can't happen just because it's a very low probability. We got a lot of volatility to come, man. We get CPI in one week and then we get a Fed meeting in that. We get two weeks until we get a Fed meeting. The market's gonna be a little worried leading up to that and CPI is one week from today. Market gonna be anticipating that pretty decently when we approach that date. Folks, thanks so much for starting your trading day with me, stay tuned. We got our man, Basil Chapman, coming up next live. We got live all day. Dave White is back live at two o'clock. We got our man, Larry Pezzavento. Excuse me, Steve Rhodes live at 11, fast market at 12, Larry live at one. Dave live at two. Tom O'Brien, my dad live at three o'clock. It's gonna be an interesting one folks, stay tuned. Basil's coming up next.