 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday the 2nd of June and the weekly market update. Now for this week's update I'm going to focus primarily on the US Dollar and the Euro simply because it's going to be very much a data driven week. This week we've got concerns about Greece. The first in four IMF repayments due on Friday are 300 million Euros which Greece is due to pay to the IMF. At the moment negotiations are ongoing between the creditors and the Greek government. As a result that's causing the Euro to move around quite a lot but you may recall a month ago I talked about a bullish engulfing month on the monthly candle chart for Euro Dollar. That pattern still remains intact despite the fact that we hit a low of 108.20 in May. Also going to be primarily driven this week by US data. We continue to get a very mixed picture of the health of the US economy. Case in point, Chicago PMI last Friday contracted for the third month in the last four and it didn't just contract slightly it contracted quite significantly at a level of around about 46 yet the ISM manufacturing data painted a completely divergent picture. It was very positive. No spending though is weak inflation remains weak. So this is very much a dollar and a Euro story. So in that context I think non-farm payrolls on Friday and if you want to listen into that webinar on Friday you just sign up along here we'll be covering it live. Non-farm payrolls on Friday is going to be very very important in the context of market perceptions about what the Fed is going to do next with respect to interest rates. At the moment I think the consensus view is we may get a move later this year certainly in the back part of this year certainly Janet Yellen has indicated that's when she wants to raise rates but as with everything it's all data dependent. So we're going to look at the dollar index we're going to have a quick look at Euro dollar just to reconfirm what I showed you a month ago at the beginning of May and also look at a significant breakout in Euro CAD which I think gives an indication that potentially we could well have seen the base in the Euro. So we're going to make a start with the dollar index June contract and I've done some Fibonacci retracements on this four-hour chart from the highs that we saw in April to the lows that we saw in May. Now we retrace 61.8% of that particular down move but it does appear to be from the four-hour chart that we've potentially hit a bit of a double top in the dollar index and we've started to break lower now that break lower I think also coincides with around about the 110 area in Euro dollar we've broken above that we've broken significantly above that and we could well be heralding up for a bit of a return back towards the 114.85 highs that we saw in the middle of May. For bias for me I still think appears to be for a slightly higher Euro a slightly lower dollar it's slightly against consensus but at the moment you trade with the charts and not with the fundamentals because I think for me price is the most important part of that component certainly when you're talking about currencies it's the push-pull effect of the prices on both sides of the equation and at the moment the bias for me appears to suggest that the Euro could well we could well have actually seen the lows in the Euro so let's just remind ourselves of that Euro dollar chart that I showed you a month ago with this monthly chart and I've circled the pattern in question it's the bullish engulfing and as you can see we did see a significant down move in May but we've got nowhere near the lows that we saw at the beginning or the middle at the beginning of this year so 104.65 still remains a very long wireway and as such while we remain above the close and the open of the longest two candles there then the bias for me still remains towards further Euro gains back towards the highs that we saw in May. Another factor feeding in to my positive Euro narrative is the crosses if we look at the crosses if you look at Euro yen if you look at Euro Aussie and if you look at Euro Canada and it's Euro Canada in particular that I want to focus on here if we look at this daily candle chart I've drawn the head and shoulders reversal in inverse head and shoulders we've also seen around about 138 where support and resistance have reversed roles we can see that the 138 level is a very very key level we've broken above it which would appear to suggest that if we project that move from the lows at around about 130 and a half through the 138 breakout point then we could well see over the course of the next few months a 700 point move higher and that was really what I think we're looking to see going forward the only thing that would negate that move higher is if we go back below 137.50 on the daily chart back below the line that we've just broken above so to reiterate on the Euro CAD and we can also look at it on the weekly chart again we can see significantly here that we've also broken above the 200 week moving average so again that's quite significance in the context of the overall break higher if we close this week above 138 then once again the narrative starts to shift to a slightly positive euro on the crosses and a potential move towards that trend line that I've drawn in from the 2014 highs and for a move back through 140 towards 145 so that's it for this week just a final reminder of the non-farm payroll webinar on Friday you can sign up here along the bottom otherwise that's it for me this week thanks very much for listening this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets