 nice. We're back up again. Sorry about the audio gang. I realized what it was. I think it's better now. Difficult to get anything insightful out of that. I hope it's okay now. The sound. I think it was because I had the audio turned on on Twitch. Accidentally I didn't realize it. I had a mic set up here so sound good. Sounds good. Awesome Dragon. Thank you very much. Rest in peace. So we did a little intro, but we'll do another intro soon enough. For those of you that are watching this video, that will be watching this video once it's loaded on another platform, BitShoot YouTuber, wherever else, right now we're on February 6th 2020 and we're gonna do a little analysis of the coronavirus data that I sort of compiled together here, grabbed from a website and the initial data was actually no all of this was from a specific website that I'll show you guys. And I put the table together and what we're gonna do is basically take a look at the graph of each of these columns just to get a feel for where the data is going. What the data looks like and for us to get a sort of a visual of what to expect. What's going on with the coronavirus and if the rate of growth is increasing, decreasing where we are with that. And this is in the preliminary stages by the way, right. So hopefully it just dies down next week. No one's talking about it, but the odds are this is gonna continue. So there's gonna be more data coming up. So what we're gonna do at some point is do a follow-up to this and once more data becomes available and take a look at the graphs and see what the graphs have done, right. Hello, Suro. How are you doing? Hey, hey, Prof. Not Prof, just the Chico, right. And we'll wait a couple more minutes just to make sure people have enough time to drop by. Because once we get going, it's good to see all the graphs being presented in one row, okay. Aside from that, you guys are gonna hear some noises in the background. Josie, subscribe to Twitch Prime. Thank you very much. You got an emote. Thanks to Josie52 subscription. Right on. Thank you. What's our emote? Send thanks. Nice. What did we get? Love snooze. Fun. We got a new emote. But just to let you know, there might be noisy today. And most likely you look like you're a yes or a rush man. A rush indeed. Do a fanatol and Neil Perth passed away a couple of weeks ago, right. So huge loss for the music community, right. But if you do a search for Chico on rush, there should be at least a couple of videos where we talk about rush. Rush is one of the greatest bands ever, period. And yes, I've listened to as well a fair bit, but rush would be it, right. And rest in peace, Neil Perth, right. So there's gonna be noises, most likely in the background. We've got new people moving into the complex and it's going to take him a few days to get in, most likely. Should we do a little intro? Should I tell you what we're about to do? Here, let me give you a little teaser just so you know what's going on. This is the data I've compiled together and let me bring up the first graph, right. Let me take down the table. And this is the first graph we got up, right. I'll go through this. I just want to do one intro that way for people that are going to be watching this after the fact. They know what's going on and the odds are I'm just going to cut this little segment out and load it up as a short, right. Because the stream is going to go longer than just presenting this data. I think it's important to present the data. You're not popping up on my following list. You might have to do a refresh, I guess, if that's what you mean. Let's do a little intro to this. I was going to record this but on a lapel mic and what not, but I figured we just cut it up. Hopefully it sinks, okay, right. So for those of you who are interested in this, okay, what we're doing right now is we're going to do a follow-up to a video that we put out about 10 days ago, okay. And the video is sort of the conversation came up of exponential functions and what we ended up doing was during a math stream. So what we ended up doing was basically graphing what we knew of the coronavirus as an exponential function, right. And we loaded this video up on January 28th, 2020, right. And we called the exponential growth of the Wuhan coronavirus, graphing the rate of viral infections, right. And we were estimating, we're assuming that the virus was going to be doubling every 30 hours. And to a certain degree it was initially, but now it seems to have tapered off a little bit, right. So we have enough data for basically a couple of extra weeks, 14 extra days of things we can look at, analyze. So that's what we're going to do right now, sort of a follow-up on this and take a look at the graphs and just to see how things look, okay. So let me bring up the table. I'm going to kill the display in the background, okay. The upcoming data currently is not reliable though, worth noting. It is worth noting and I will be mentioning this stuff once we go through this, right. This is, we're at the beginning stages of what's taking place, right. The data that you see here in the table is, I compiled it from a website from John Hopkins that's providing the data. And if, after we take a look at this graph, I'll link up the tables and the links will be available in the description of this video. Let me, for those of you watching live, let me give you the link to the site that I'm using and they just released a couple of hours ago, they just released some additional data, okay. And I didn't have enough time to load it up to this table and to the graphs, right. So we're looking at the data available from this website, okay. From January 19th, 2020 to February 4th, 2020, right. A month and plus, actually not even a month, like how many days is that, like a couple of weeks or so, right. Two or three weeks, two and a half weeks, let's say. So we're going to take a look at that data and we're going to graph every single one of these columns, right. The first one we're going to look at is the rate of infections, how many people are infected in mainland China and then outside of China. And then we're going to take a look at the percent growth per day in China because I think that's really important and the percent growth per day outside of China. We're going to take a look at the death rate, the death totals and the recovered totals. And then we're going to look at the death ratio and the recovered ratio and all the raw data is available here, right. I had to do a little bit of calculation in each columns. And if you guys want, we can go over the calculations. They're quite simple actually, it's just percentages and stuff, right. So not a big deal. But what I'd like to do is take a look at the data, take a look at the graphs because that's really what's extremely important is for us to get a visual of what's going on, right. So let me take down the table and we'll come back to the table if anyone has any questions or what not. Here's the first graph. This is the total confirmed cases. There's one case right now off the southwest coast of Africa. Off at the Atlantic. Yeah, if it gets into Africa and grows into India, right now they say only three cases in India, but I'm guessing it's probably more. If it gets into Africa, it might grow much faster. So we're going to keep this data in mind, these visuals, right? So this is the total confirmed cases that we're getting from the centralized Chinese government that what we have right now. It's already spreading in India. It's already spreading in India. I'm pretty sure it is too, right? So three is my guess is an underestimate, right? But we're going to go with the official numbers because no matter what, if this is still exponential growth, within two weeks it'll be obvious where we're at with this, right? Even within a week, it's going to be pretty obvious, right? We can take a look at, you know, estimate the rate of growth, how, you know, what the doubling period is and stuff. But I didn't get a chance to do it before the stream started. They said there's a concern at the risk of infection of 5,000-plus people. Suru, and Suru is from India. So there's some news coming out of there. South America, South America is the only unaffected continent safer in Antarctica. Yeah, I hope it doesn't go into South America either. We'll see, right? There are positive things we're going to look at in the data, right? This is the rate of infection in mainland China. And as of February 4th, confirmed there's around 27,000, right? Based on the table that we have, right? If you look at the table down at the bottom, the mainland confirmed cases was 27,400 approximately anyway. And that's January, from January 19th of being 278, right? So it's been spreading pretty fast, okay? So the table, the graph here, one thing that looks more positive is it's not doing the exponential kick-up, it's turning into more of a linear. Hopefully it doesn't s, right? Exponentials when they grow up, stuff like this, sometimes it burns out and it doesn't s, and then later on it disappears, right? So this is what we see. This is what the data looks like coming out of mainland China, okay? For the last how many days? One 17 days, right? Two and a half weeks, right? So day one is January 19th, and day 17th is February 4th, 2020, okay? Here is what the graph looks like for outside of China, including Hong Kong. So this looks more positive because it's looking linear. But again, there isn't enough data for us to really get a feel for what's going on. Because in the beginning stages of this virus, in China, the graph also was sort of linear until we started getting more confirmed cases because it was a 14-day, what do you call it, where there is no sign of infection, right? SARS that the tapering out, you just describe, eventually completely leveled off, which is what we're hoping for, right? However, it did so at a rate of infection death then C corona is currently at, yeah. And SARS, it wasn't a systematic, right? So there's a 14-day incubation period where no one's showing any signs. With SARS, people start showing signs right away. So there was more care being taken to a certain degree, right? And we're not 100% sure how this is being spread or what not. The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, MERS, also did the same, if I recall correctly. I believe so, I believe so. So that's what we're hoping for for this, right? And this is positive. We're graphing outside of China, including Hong Kong. And the graph looks like this right now, confirmed cases. Now, again, early stages, right? So you really don't know what's going on. There is enough data available for us, right? But not bad. And considering the rate of infection in China to confirmed numbers aren't doing this, they're coming more towards a linear. Hopefully this is a sign of what China's infection rate is gonna look like, right? And then taper off. So this is the graph for outside of China infection. Now, another column that we ended up graphing, let me bring this up again. I wanted to graph to see how much the infection was growing per day, right? And the next two graphs that we're gonna take a look at are percent growth per day in China and percent growth per day outside of China, including Hong Kong, okay? Suru, there's also some reports of possibly some people having recovered from coronavirus can still spread it really, like to survive. But they are still carriers of the disease for a while after. People who recovered and they send home and they still infected family members. Or it could be the incubation period, the asystematic. If they were with the family 14 days before, right? Maybe they spread it then and then they got sick, but the recovery rate is pretty slow on this. So if you include 14 days here at the last day, they infected someone and they have a 14 day period. I'm assuming people are not recovering within 14 days. And we're gonna take a look at the recovery graph as well. And that looks more positive, right? Asymptomatic under the radar stuff, under the radar stuff, right? So the next two graphs we're gonna take a look at is percent growth per day in China and percent growth per day outside of China, okay? So let me take the table down again. They have viral particles in their bodies, but that does not mean they are contagious, yeah. And from what I understand, this virus is mutating rapidly, right? So hopefully it mutates itself out of existence, right? Hi, Newt. How are you doing? It's over if this comes to New York City. New York City? Oh, I don't know. Sleepy waves. The biggest concern for me is India and Africa and South America, right? And Bangladesh and areas where they can't contain it, right? Where it can't be quarantined, where there is enough facilities or drugs to treat people. Newt, what we're gonna do? I have no idea what you said, but we're gonna time you out for now, okay? Because we're looking at morbid data. So I rather not have to deal with things coming in in other languages and to check to make sure they're legit, okay? Apologies if that was not something that should have happened, but we'll take care of business later, okay? So right now, let's look at the rate of growth per day, right, percent growth per day in China. This is what the graph looks like. Is there really no cure for it? We don't know, this is brand new, right? Sorry, I actually don't know much about it. Sleepy waves, we'll take a look at it. I have a couple of videos lined up from World Health Organization to watch so you get a feel for what it is. I just assumed, I thought it was a good idea to go through the data first, okay? That way everyone has a visual of what it is they're talking about, okay? There are reportedly things which can help fight, recover from it, but there's no definitive cure yet that I am aware of. Yeah, I don't think there is yet, and that's what World Health Organization they put out a video today talking about it, right? So taking a look at this graph, this is percent growth per day in China, right? As you can tell in any early stages of anything where you're collecting data, the beginning stages, it's all over the place, right? So right now you can see at the beginning, week, 10 days, we're all over the place. So going percent growth goes from less than 20% to 70% to less than 20, 40 something percent, up to 120%. So flip, flip, flip, flip, high frequency, right? Large range in the data, and then it's narrowing down to a level. So right now it seems to be narrowing down to a 20% growth per day right now, right? From what happened with SARS and MER, M-E-R-S, it's unlikely to develop a vaccine for any time soon. And hopefully nature takes care of it, right? They managed to breed it in a lab here in Austin, which is the first major step to test cures, which is a great start, which is a great start. Awesome Josie, thanks for the info. I was reading the Chinese government is trying to push traditional remedies to treat it, possibly dragon, why not? It came from nature, so there might be a natural cure for it, right? Hello, Spider-Man, how are you doing? I love Spider-Man. So this is the rate of growth per day in China, right? And if we take a look at the table, let me bring up the table again. If we look at one, two, three, four, the fifth column, right? If you look towards the end, we're seeing the rate of growth per day stabilizing around 20%, between 15 to 20%. I want to keep an eye on that, just to see hopefully it comes down, right? There are articles which say vaccination development will need a few months, yeah. It's, for one understand, vaccination is supposed to take a long time, unless someone already has a vaccine, right? So this is the rate of growth per day in China. And let's take a look at the graph for the rate of growth per day outside of China, which is this, and again, high frequency, high, sorry, high range, just oscillating, right? Big margin of error at the beginning and it's stabilizing around 10%, right? Which again is better than 80% at the peak, right? The good news, I guess, is that 80% of the fatalities are people over 60 and younger kids as well, right? Or people who are already immune compromise if they're already sick. Well, first they have to develop it, which takes time, then approve it, the human trials, which takes time, then produce and distribute, which takes time. And if this thing's kicking into high gear, I'm assuming the speed for go human trials, the people that are sick will be the experiments, I guess, I'm not sure, but if they're gonna go through all the hoops in the appropriate timeframe, it would take a year or more, right? Or longer, longer, way longer if there's human trials, I'm guessing. I used to follow some of my farmer's talks, so I know how long it takes to bring things to trial to first phase anyway, and it's a long time. How long time do we think, like a year? For my understanding, if it has to go through the hoops, it's gonna be longer, right? If they fast track things, possibly within a few months, it all depends how fast things are growing, right? The face masks are becoming a bit of a fashion statement here, yeah, there's people wearing in my area too. It really develops just how bad it could get, depends on how bad it could get, but expecting, yeah, like six months to a year. If it's really, really bad, they could expedite it in some cases, for sure. There's an article on the origins and family tree of the virus here. DVD, you would have to post this on our Discord page, no links in chat, okay? New version of coronas made by United States of America and they bio-attacked China and China kept faxing it, possibly. There's lots of theories out there. We don't know right now. The only thing we're caring about right now is the data, the official reports, right? And we're looking at the official reports because we're at the beginning stages of things, right? And they're releasing them and people are seeing the effects and both inside of China and outside of China. So even if this data is wrong or suppressed, we'll find out what's going on in 10 days to two weeks anyway, right? Which we might be doing a follow-up video. Within a month, we're gonna know what's going on because the data is gonna tell us everything we need to know, almost anyway. Nah, bro. It was made by China to call their... We don't know, right? They already have cigarettes for that, though. Evening, she chose. Zare evening, how are you doing? Okay, so that's the rate of growth per day outside of China, right? Here is what the graph looks like for the death toll so far, right? This is total death toll inside and outside of China. Outside, there isn't that many, right? So this doesn't look good. The death toll within one, two, three, four, five, six days has gone from 200 plus people to 500 plus people. That's doubling. So the death toll so far is doubling every six days, right? So we can take a look at the table again. I'll show you what graph we're looking at. And we're gonna hear some banging noises and stuff. There's people moving into this complex, so unfortunately our timing sort of sucks on doing this. But this is the death toll. We're in column, I should have numbered these column, but one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. If you look at the seventh column, this is what we're looking at right now, right? So within one, two, three, four, five days, right? The death toll has more than doubled, okay? The good news is the recovery, if you look at the table, is at a steeper incline, right? So it's gone from 187 to almost 10 times, well, not 10 times, but seven times, right? Six, seven times more have recovered within that period, right? So tell them to stop banging and making noises in the evening. No, it's okay, sleepy waves. I let people do live their lives, man. You know, people are moving in, they're excited, right? They're happy to be moving into a place, and we're happy to have new people around, right? So let them move in and do their thing, right? You can handle the noise, as Alan Watts would say, just think about it as walking in the forest and birds are chirping or tree branches are falling. Just noise in the background, right? It's all good, it's all good. How are they treating the virus anyway? I don't know, I think they're just possibly antibiotics. What's the treatment for pneumonia? You give them oxygen, you give them antibiotics, huge doses of vitamin C and vitamin D. You give them maybe asthma inhaler stuff, I don't know what that stuff is called. I don't know what the treatment for asthma is, right? So this is the graph for the death toll growing, right? Here is the graph for the recovery, and the recovery looks good. So that's a huge positive. This one is going exponential hardcore, right? If the death toll is supposed to be 2%, which is the next graph we're gonna look at, right? So from the data, official reports that we have, the death rate percent is 2%, right? The death rate shows 2%, right? So if 2% mortality rate, then it should be 98% recovery, right? Or let's say 90% recovery to full health and 8% might have some long-term side effects, right? So this graph looks good with the recovery rate, right? And here's the death rate, right? For what we know for the last one, two, three, four, five, six, and this is day 17, this February 4th, 2020, right? So the death rate looks like it's stabilizing around 2%, according to official Chinese, or actually official numbers, because there's only one death outside of China so far. So most of the deaths out of the 500, right now it's more 600 plus, well, let's say 500 to where we've taken the data, 500 plus, you know, 500 plus minus one has been in China. So the death rate right now is around 2%, okay? And the recovery rate is growing. So the recovery rate, because there was a 14-day a-systematic that people wore and it takes a while for people to recover, we haven't been getting any data on the recovery or it's been really slow coming and it's starting to accelerate now, right? So we're seeing the exponential kick up as well on the recovery, so that's a positive sign as well, right? The percent recovered. So at the beginning we were less than 2%, now we're peaking above 4%. I'm hoping that within a week we'll be well above 20 to 30 to 40% recovery rate, right? Which would be fantastic. So the way they treat it is antiviral and antibiotic, some assistive drugs and putting them on oxygen full-time, so it's oxygen full-time. That's huge resources right there, right? Huge resources, if this thing spreads into countries that can't afford those resources or they don't have the medical system established to build two temporary hospitals within 10 days and what not, the machine kicking into gear, then the death rate is gonna increase without a doubt, right? What could teach you? Plutorio, how are you doing? Welcome to another live stream. And again, this was our table, right? This is the data we just took a look at. So should we flip through all the graphs going backwards? And then I'm gonna show you guys the World Health Organization. I think we should watch the video. There's questions we can have regarding the video, the World Health Organization. They didn't use breathing today on February 6th, 2020. And there were questions asked. They sort of sidestepped the answers. They shared some information, which is we can take a look at and discuss further, okay? But just to recap, this is the table we've got. We've graphed so far. So this is the data we're about to take a look at, okay? The doctor who warned authorities in December died today. Yeah, I have that linked actually bookmark right now on an article that we might get to, right? So there's things going on. We don't know. There's a lot of theories flying around. As far as I'm concerned, the best thing we can do is keep calm heads, right? Be informed, be aware, wash hands and be clean in your living space and outside where you are and be aware, right? And we look at the data, right? The data says it all. Mathematics is where it's at, right? That is information that you can grind your teeth in, right? Get a hold of and analyze and take a look at, okay? So this is the table that we're about to look at the graphs for. And then what we're gonna do is just we're gonna take a look at some links. And the first thing we're gonna do is take a look at a short four and a half minute video that World Health Organization put out explaining what the coronavirus is. And then we're gonna take a look at a, I think it's a half, half an hour news briefing I watched today that with World Health Organization answering questions, right? We also make at least some minor preparations. Make some minor preparations. Go get yourself some supplies that you need at home, right? Food, toilet paper, vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, soap, whatever you need, right? Spread awareness for sure. Coronavirus, mancas. I'm not sure if you said that already, sorry. Yeah, spread awareness. The best thing we could do is look at the data and see what's going on. Isn't this like SARS 2.0? I think it's more severe than SARS. Pluto, Pluto Reno, Pluto Reno. I think it's more serious than SARS personally, okay? I wasn't very much concerned about SARS at the time. I didn't spend the time to graph the data. I'm spending the time to graph the data, right? And shared with you guys, I think it's important. Pluto Reno, Pluto Reno. I figured it out, it took me a little bit of time. So let's take a look at the graphs in reverse order. So we're gonna look at the graph that is on the this side, the recovery ratio first, and then we're gonna make our way down to the infections in China. I was living in Southeast Asia doing SARS and no one really cared. Yeah, yeah, it wasn't a big deal. This one is a big deal. Chisho should be fine because elderberry is near enough. The best natural flu killer is it? I have some elderberry liqueur that I might start drinking a little bit. Increase looks linear. Does this mean infection rate is less than 1% I'm assuming. Normal flu is, no, infection rate is higher than flu. Which means one person infects 1.3 person. No, I think the infection rate for coronavirus is between two to 3%. As far as we know, right? I didn't grab, well, we don't know what the, actually sorry, the death rate is around 2%. There are not value. The rate of spreading is anywhere between two to 3%. I think it's the are not value that you're talking about, Frank. Yeah, so let's take a look at this stuff. The first graph is the recovery ratio. So as data is becoming available, we're seeing that the recovery rate is increasing, which is fantastic, right? And this is going into full-blown exponential mode. So this thing, within a week, it should be much, much higher. We've gone from in the last five days or so, we've gone from less than 2% all the way up to above 4%. And we still don't know what has caused it. We don't know what has caused it, right? I think the WHO said the are not is 99% certainly in the range of 3.0, but probably higher, but probably higher, okay. Here is the rate, the death rate, which is starting to, and again, this is the beginning stages of what we know, the data coming in. But it's around 2% so far, right? And most of the deaths have occurred in China. So this is the data coming out of China that we're doing the death rate for, right? Since the virus is spreading outside of China, we'll have better idea of what the death rate is, okay? Once more data becomes available, hopefully not, hopefully it just dies down, it's over. This graph here is the recovery, the total number of people that have recovered, which is fantastic, it's looking like it's growing fast, right? It's gone from less than 200 to close to 1200 in a matter of one, two, one, two, three, four, five days. So within five days, the recovery, the number of people that are recovered has gone off five times, which is fantastic. It is not perfect, 1.3 for normal for means people with the flu tend to infect, yeah, 1.3 people. The cause seems to be currently, wet market, bushmeat in China, supposed to be bats, that's the current belief anyway, could probably be well-changing time, will probably change in time. I read something, some doctors in Southeast Asia might have found a cure or a way to fight it or somebody. Yeah, we're gonna get a lot of either facts or noise coming out, and hopefully they have, right? So the recovery rate is growing fast. Unfortunately, the people recovering, right? So the recovery rate is growing and the rate of, and the number of people recovering is growing. Unfortunately, the death, the people dying is also increasing, right? I know this is data focus, but what's your take on experts saying the US is overreacting to the outbreak? I don't think this is an overreaction, okay? I think when there's anything, any type of virus, which is growing initially at an exponential rate with an R0 value that is infecting more people with a asymptomatic for two weeks that China has initially, but last week, they had quarantined 60 million people, it's cause to concern, right? Cause for concern, right? We should be aware of what's going on and we should look at the data, right? Do we have good estimates, guesses for what it could have been caused by? I hear it's bad meat in third world countries, but you know how people say ridiculous. Yeah, they say meat market bats, initially it was snakes and then bats, we don't know. Some theories are that it was engineered, some theories is a bio weapon, some theories was escaped from, some people's theories is draw, we don't know. We don't know. I'm very excited to see people washing their hands more. I hope it's a culture that can stick around. Yeah, for sure. The way the Southeast Asia doctors had found to treat it, if I'm not mistaken, was ironically, oh, I heard about that too. I heard that's neither here nor there. HIV combative drugs, though these help, but didn't guarantee recovery, okay. If it's true, then great, because the stuff is available, right? So what I wonder if the number of infected people increases linearly, then the infection rate must be less than one. That's why there's doubt in the numbers. That's why there's doubt in the numbers. I could go for some fried bat right about now. I couldn't, I wouldn't want to touch. Yeah, I heard the snake thing, yeah. So this is the number of dead and it's increasing, right? The, this graph is the growth, percent growth per day outside of China. The number of infected, right? So number of infected, the numbers are growing around 10% right now, right? Outside of China, which if it continues to grow at 10%, it's not good, it's still growing. You want to cut that back down, right? Yeah, I work many retail jobs, movie theaters, video game stores, Costco. It's absolutely insane how many people do not wash their hands, yeah. And how many people wipe their hands on railings and just drag their hands on railings and different things, it's weird to me personally. Sorry if I keep going off. No, no, you're not. Legendary Rob Boss, how are you doing? Did you hear a in real life Twitch streamer got the coronavirus? No, no, I didn't hear about that. Rob Boss, that's unfortunate. But there is dangers of it, right? So rate of growth outside of China, right? Percent growth per day is around 10% outside of China. And right now it's stabilizing around 20% inside of China, right, or a little bit less than 20%. So again, it's still growing, but it's not as we see one day here, the rate per cent per day going up to 120%, which would be a lot, right? Which would be unfortunate, right? And this is the total confirmed cases outside of China, right? Including Hong Kong, and it looks linear, which is a good thing. If it's linear, it will taper off sooner. If it's growing exponentially every doubling period, it's gonna kick things up a lot more, right? So this thing growing linearly outside of China is a good sign if we're graphing it, right? And again, this is at the beginning stages, right? Because it started off in China. So China is about a month start to the infection spreading, right? So hopefully we don't see the rate kicking up outside of China. And this is the graph for total confirmed cases inside of China. And it's starting to go towards a linear, not yet, right? So we're still exponential growth and we'll know more within a couple of weeks or within a week, okay? And what we'll end up doing, okay, is most likely doing another stream where we're gonna do an update to this table, okay? And do more graphs. So I just wanted to share that data with you guys just so you know where I'm coming from and you have a good visual of what's happening so paranoia doesn't take over, hysteria doesn't take over people, and also people don't dismiss what's happening, right? Information is your friend, data is your friend, mathematics, one of the best tools we have at our disposal to get a better appreciation for what's going on in the world, okay? And anything like this, the data comes in fast. So it's a really good opportunity to look at, use our math abilities to look at data and start analyzing some of the stuff, okay? That's what I wanted to cover for this initial stage. Now what we're gonna do on the live stream, for those of you watching on this video on another platform once the live stream's over, we're probably gonna end the video now. Thanks for watching. For those of you in the live stream, we're gonna share some links, we're gonna watch some videos, we're gonna read some articles possibly and have a little bit more discussion as to some of the theories, possible things that are taking place, okay? So let me take this table down and let's bring up our, let me show you where I've gotten the data from, right? Let me open up my display. Let's kick this down, okay? This is where I'm getting my data from, okay? Can we talk about how China is dealing with it? Sure, sleepy waves. I'm excited for the update to see how it progresses as a realistic level, at a realistic level. Yeah, same here. I love Spider-Man. Once we put out the video, and this is the video that we did, right? That we, it just came up that during the math stream that we were doing, we did the video on exponential growth in Wuhan coronavirus, graphing the rate of viral or viral infections. Google or YouTube has posted this WHO link, I guess, to everything coronavirus related. But initially, we only had the data up to basically here, right? There was only like 2,000 people confirmed. Right now we're at 27,000. So, and we released this video on January 28th, but we recorded, I believe, January 26th. So since January 26th, it's gone from 2,000 to, you know, today it's over 30,000. So that's pretty fast growth, right? And this is the data where I'm getting my data from. If you take a look at this, down here is the table where they tally up the data every day, right? And usually the next day coming up, which is they've already tallyed it up for today, which is it's one day lagging. Today is February 6th. This is from the data from February 5th. They've confirmed that, right? So the 30,000 that you see here, 31,000 that you see here, this is the numbers being tallyed up for February 6th that they're gonna release, you know, they're getting the data. So there's a lag, one day lag. And on this side, on the right side of the page, there is, you know, total number of deaths right now is 638 and total recovered is 1,551, okay? There's definitely some horror stories coming out of China about it. Yeah, there are. There are. Yeah, I watched that. I was hoping you'd do an update on it. Glad to have caught it. Yeah, absurd decon, absurd decon. One, like for me, this is morbid math, but for me, when something like this happens, if I get, if I'm interested in it, you know, I do this type of thing with other data sets as well. So I thought this was a good opportunity to go through this stuff and talk about it a little bit. How and when did they measure new infected people? If they just count people with symptoms, then I think the real infection rate is already lower. I'm assuming it's higher, you mean, Frank. But can we trust the numbers? Who is sourcing those numbers? This is from, it's coming out of John Hopkins, right? So it's a legitimate source, but the question is, can we trust the numbers coming out of China? Are the numbers in India really? Like if you scroll down here, you can see this thing says India down here is still at three, but I don't think India's still at three. I can't see this being still at three. And you can, by the way, you can scroll out of here, and you can see the whole world. So you can scroll out and you can see the whole world and there's infected cases. Let me bring this over. There's infected cases in Canada, the United States. Asia is growing big. There's some in Europe. And from what we understand, there's case in Africa as well and there's one in the Middle East and Australia's been hit as well. And then you can zoom in. So it's a nice interactive map. Can we trust the numbers? If it's growing exponentially, it's just gonna delay the inevitable where we're gonna know what's going on, right? Because of the incubation time, yeah. Those red dots give off a fear-mongering vibe. They look like fall out of, yeah. And when you scroll in, the circles become smaller, right? So too bad they don't have, oh, they do have the numbers. You can click on the red dots and you see confirmed cases in Hubei is 22,000. Number of deaths, that's the center, right? The main city, I guess, is 618 and recovered is 888, right? So if you click on the dots, you can zoom, what do you call it? You get more information per dot, which is nice. I hadn't done that before. I don't remember doing that before, right? I like that I live in Finland where winter is behind this 20 degrees Celsius. I've heard there could be way more deaths than his report. Yeah, I heard that as well, Rob Boss. Well, if you believe, there's, yeah, the 10 set. I was about to mention the 10 set numbers that got leaked. Yeah, a report came out of, but you gotta take that with a grain of salt as well because that's from Taiwan, the news agency, right? So again, it really depends where the information is coming at us, right? So according to the Taiwan news report, a leak report there, there was 30,000 people infected and I believe the death was about over 20,000 or so. But that's, you know, we don't know. That's one place that's reported it and that could have been politically motivated because there's huge turmoil right now between Taiwan and China, mainland China, right? So take that with a gigantic grain of salt. Yeah, but in John Hopkins, just taking what China was reporting or is it independent? I'm assuming they're taking what the World Health Organization is reporting, right? Because down here, take a look on this website, they tell you where they're sourcing their information from, right? So visualization John Hopkins CSSI support data source from who, C-D-C, C-E-C-D-C, H-N-H-C-N-D-X-Y, and you can click on all these links and they'll take you to the websites. I've clicked on some of them, like where I went to who and stuff like this, World Health Organization and stuff, blog, contact, read more on the blog, the contact info, downloadable sheet, they have a whole bunch of stuff, right? Like on the table that we had, some of the data I got from the Google spreadsheet that they had here, right? Because I wasn't using this website right off the bat and writing down the death numbers. So every day I go through and write down the death numbers and the recovery numbers, and you can click on it and you go to the spreadsheet, you can zap them there from what do you call it? From this website, right? So I'm sort of, I have this website opened up and pinned as a tab. So I'm updating my spreadsheet on a regular basis. That one red dot in the middle of the ocean, Atlantis. Don't know. Incubation time is two to 14 days. Anti, I keep on calling it incubation but it's so easy to call it incubation but asymptomatic phase. So the rate we see today is two to 14 days old, yeah. Has Japan had any, yeah, Japan's had cases. How many cases has Japan had? Japan has had in here, you can see it, 86 cases here I highlighted, 86 cases in Japan, right? For some reason, as soon as I highlight that stuff, it kicks us off. A few, yeah. Death numbers are instant, but confirmed infected numbers are delayed for some days, yeah. And I wouldn't say the death numbers are instant either because there could be people who have died in their apartments, in their homes, right? That we don't know about, okay. What I like to do is, here, let's do this gang. Let's watch a video. And this is from the World Health Organization, right? Let's watch a video, it's a short video, like four and a half minute video of what this virus is all about. So I'm gonna play this. You guys let me know how the sound is, okay. Hopefully it's not too loud. It should be okay, I tested it earlier. Oh, hold on a second, I haven't turned on the sound on my thing. This should be, you know what? I'm gonna put this on too. I'm gonna listen to it as well. Apologies if there's gonna be sound, noise coming in from the mic. Let me put this on so we can confirm that the sound is okay, it's coming in okay. My little hokey pokey headphones. So let's take a look. I'm just gonna confirm that the sound for this is good. Investigations, is that too loud? It seems a little loud from my end. Oh man, there was a report in Boston, way too close to New York City. Yeah, I'm guessing it's gonna come there, okay. So let's play this. Again, if the sound is too loud, let me know again. In December 2019, there was a cluster of pneumonia cases in China. Investigations found that it was caused by a previously unknown virus, now named the 2019 novel coronavirus. In this video, we'll take a quick look at what's currently known about the virus. Keep in mind that this is a new virus and what's known about the virus now might change in the future. Coronaviruses are a large group of viruses. They consist of a core of genetic material surrounded by an envelope with protein spikes. This gives it the appearance of a crown. Crown in Latin is called corona and that's how these viruses get their name. There are different types of coronaviruses that cause respiratory and sometimes gastrointestinal symptoms. Respiratory disease can range from the common cold to pneumonia and in most people, the symptoms tend to be mild. However, there are some types of coronaviruses that can cause severe disease. These include the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus first identified in China in 2003 and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus that was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. The 2019 novel coronavirus was first identified in China. It initially occurred in a group of people with pneumonia who'd been associated with a seafood and live animal market in the city of Wuhan. The disease has since spread from those who were sick to others including family members and healthcare staff. There are many cases at present and the disease has spread within China and also to a number of other countries. So where did the virus come from? It's known that coronaviruses circulate in a range of animals. Sometimes these viruses can make the jump from animals to humans. This is called a spillover and could be due to a range of factors such as mutations in the virus or increased contact between humans and animals. For example, MERSCOV is known to be transmitted from camels and SARSCOV from civet cats. The animal reservoir of the 2019 novel coronavirus is not known yet. How is it transmitted? The exact dynamics of how the virus is transmitted is yet to be determined. In general, respiratory viruses are usually transmitted through droplets created when an infected person coughs or sneezes or through something that has been contaminated with the virus. People most at risk of infection from the novel coronavirus are those in close contact with animals such as live animal market workers and those who are caring for people infected with the virus such as family members or healthcare workers. So, how does the disease present? Well, from what is known so far, there can be a number of symptoms ranging from mild to severe. There can be fever and respiratory symptoms such as cough and shortness of breath. In more severe cases, there's been pneumonia, kidney failure, and death. The mortality rate is not known yet. How can we tell whether someone is infected? The infection can be diagnosed by a test called PCR or polymerase chain reaction. This test identifies the virus based on its genetic fingerprint. There's currently no specific medication for the virus and treatment is supportive care. There's currently no vaccine to protect against the virus. Treatment and vaccines are in development. How do we prevent transmission of the virus? This new virus currently has a limited geographic spread. However, there are a number of standard hygiene practices that have been recommended to protect against infection and further spread. These include covering your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing with a medical mask, tissue, or flexed elbow, avoiding close contact with those who are unwell. The appropriate use of masks and personal protective equipment, especially in a healthcare setting, washing hands regularly with soap and water or alcohol-based hand rub. Actions that can be taken to prevent infection from an animal's source include avoiding unnecessary unprotected contact with animals, washing hands after contact with animals or animal products, and ensuring that animal products are cooked thoroughly before they're consumed. It's important to stay home if you're feeling unwell, but if you have a fever, cough, and difficulty breathing, seek medical care early and share your previous travel history with your healthcare provider. That's a quick look at this emerging infectious disease. Given that this outbreak is evolving rapidly, what's known about this virus can change. Please check the websites below for the most up-to-date information. Okay, so when was this released? This video was released. This was released January 31st, 2020, so six days ago, okay? So keep that in mind. Does it infect animals too? They're carriers. I don't know how it affects if it kills them or not. I don't know. As an American, of course my first thought is, will this CDC cover all the treatment costs? Oh, dragons, good question. Very informative, thank you. No worries, I love Spider-Man. And again, this is coming from the World Health Organization. So there's probably more to it, but it's a good starting point. And we should always question any type of information coming from centralized institution, right? That makes it seem so much more relaxed than what the media is making everyone panic over. Agreed, I love Spider-Man. Which is one of the reasons I wanted to really do these, right, aside from looking at the data. Like for me, I'm aware, cautious, but not freaking out, not panic, right? Not until the data says, hey, concern should go up a lot more, right? This video makes me want to wear a mask. Make sure you wear the right kind of mask. Some are useless, yeah. They have to have, I believe, the little thing they have here where they breathe in is filter and stuff. So now that we know what World Health Organization released six days ago, a week ago, and they've done some press releases since then, right? And before then, let's look at the press release that they released today, okay? This was released 13 hours ago. And we're getting it from RT because I couldn't find it anywhere else, right? And RT is a source that I do use, okay? So they're the first ones right off the bat releasing this. I don't follow any mainstream news sources, so. And from what I understand, they haven't released anything because they did other searches to try to find and everybody is linking to this video, right? So let's listen to this. And this is a 33-minute news briefing from the World Health Organization, okay? So let's take a look at this. Hopefully this video is appearing in complete. Let me just make sure. Yeah, it's complete enough, okay? So let's do this. I don't keep my eyes on the chat and it's 33 minutes. I got some snacks. I got some apples, right? Hopefully you got some snacks if you wanna watch the whole thing. And there are questions being asked. You know, we can talk about it in chat or talk about it after the video's done. And I do have a couple of cookies here. Chocolate, crispy cookies to watch or re-watch because I've already watched this video, okay? Should we do Yang? Are we watching the entire thing? Yeah, I love Spider-Man. Let's do it, right? Because some of the stuff is just, they're playing politics. You know, they're not supposed to be but you can tell they're playing politics. They do answer a question regarding the doctor that passed away, right, in China. They, some of the questions that you guys have asked is being asked of them. So it's good to see what the World Health Organization is saying. If you have a notepad, you wanna make little notes of the things that you might not agree with, right? Because there was a few things that they said here. I said, okay, they're dodging the question. They're not really answering it because they either don't know or they don't want to release the data or they want more data coming in. But there is some good stuff here. And again, this is the World Health Organization. So take it with a grain of salt but it is the major body that's watching over this thing. So if we're looking at official numbers, it's a good idea to keep track of what these people are reporting as well as other information coming out. And this is, by the way, here's the doctor that first reported the corona, where did the picture go? Oh, they took this picture down, what? So this is a Chinese coronavirus, whistleblower dies of coronavirus, the one who released the information. And this one is Center for Disease Control. I have this website open as well. I looked at some of the stuff here for the United States and whatnot. But I think we're just gonna, and this is a nurse that was releasing some information. But we'll skip that one as well, okay? So let's listen to this. I'm gonna put up the chat for masks. You wanna, okay, I'm gonna read this first. Surua, for masks you wanna N95 minimum, ideally N100. You wanna mask which actually has a filter, filter and proper seal. And if possible, you wanna mask which covers your eyes or even just entire face, because people have been getting infected through their eyes. If you don't have a mask with eye protection, then you'll want goggles with a proper seal. Okay, thanks, Surua. And my coughing is from a flu I had a month, over a month ago at the beginning of January. It was the flu. I'm recovering, luckily, right? So let's listen to this. Take maybe a few more questions from journalists online today. Welcome to everyone watching us online. As always, we will have an audio file available immediately after. For those here, just to remind you one more time that we will have to leave this room immediately after the press conference. And we hope to finish the press conference by quarter two, because the room is needed for another meeting. And I will, with that, give immediately floor to Director General Dr. Tedros. And we have Dr. Maria, and we have Dr. Mike Ryan with us today, Dr. Tedros. Thank you, thank you, Tarik. Good afternoon once again, and thank you for joining us. First, the latest numbers of the outbreak. As of 6 a.m. Geneva time today, there were 28,060 confirmed cases in China and 564 deaths outside China. There are 225 cases in 24 countries and one death. Yesterday, as you know, we launched our strategic preparedness and response plan asking for 675 million US dollars to investing in stopping this outbreak. As I mentioned, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has already made a generous contribution. And Japan has also made a contribution of 10 million US dollars today, and there are a lot of other signals of support. We expect more announcements in the coming days. We welcome support from all donors, big and small, because every dollar counts. We're also mobilizing the full power of the UN system after our press conference yesterday. I briefed the Secretary General and other UN leaders, and today we had a call with more than 200 UN country representatives in more than 200 countries. This follows yesterday's call with WHO country representatives. It's hard to believe that just two months ago, this virus was unknown to us. We have already learned so much about it. We know it's DNA. We know it can be transmitted from one person to other. We know that those most at risk are older people and those with underlying health conditions. Having the genetic sequence of the virus has enabled the rapid development of tests. And as I mentioned yesterday, we have shipped 250,000 tests to more than 70 labs around the world, and we're training lab workers to use them. But there is still a lot we don't know. We don't know the source of the outbreak. We don't know what its natural reservoir is, and we don't properly understand its transmissibility or severity. To defeat this outbreak, we need answers to all those questions. And there are tools we don't have. We have no vaccine to prevent infections and no therapeutics to treat them. To put it bluntly, we're shadowboxing. We need to bring this virus out into the light so we can attack it properly. That's why on February 11 and 12, we're convening a global research and innovation forum to identify research priorities and coordinate the international research effort to find therapeutics and vaccines. This will be a meeting of scientists from all over the world, including China, both in person and virtually. The aim is to fast-track the development of effective diagnostic tests, vaccines, and medicines. One of the key challenges is coordinating research funders to support key priorities. A lot of donors want to help, but we need to direct them to support agreed priorities rather than going off in different directions. I have said we need to be led by facts, not fear, and science, not rumors. That's exactly what we're doing. We're letting science lead. But this is not something we have only just thought of. This is something WHO has been working for years. Following the West Africa Ebola outbreak, we developed the WHO R&D blueprint, a global strategy for developing drugs and vaccines before epidemics and accelerating research and development activities during epidemics. It speeds up the availability of the medicines and technologies that save lives. We have seen that with the rapid development of an Ebola vaccine. But vaccines and therapeutics are not silver bullets, and they will take time to develop. In the meantime, there are simple things everyone can do. Wash your hands regularly and cover your nose and your mouth with your elbow when you cough or sneeze. That's the personal hygiene. Keeping the world safe is in our DNA. If countries invest now in prevention and research, we can avoid more cases and more costs down the line. I thank you. Back to you, Tariq. Thank you very much, Dr. Tedros. As we have limited time, we will go directly to questions. We will take one or two from the room, and then we will go online because yesterday we have not been able to take any. And please, in the interest of having as many people as possible to ask questions, can you please ask only one question and not go in a long list. So we will go one, two, and then we'll go online. Please. If you can just come and press the... Hello, thank you, Tariq, for Dr. Tedros, Shane from China Central Television. My question is, right now at this time of the day, I remember yesterday Dr. Mike said that the nurses and doctors in the frontline are the real heroes. So, but now we also see some strikes in Hong Kong for the doctors here. They just refuse to do their job. So at this time of the situation, what do you think that doctors and nurses should do to help the patients and what you call for the spirit to support them? Thank you. I think this is, I say it many times, this is a time of solidarity. You know, there is a common enemy now, a very unknown virus. And I advise all of us that we focus on the virus, the common enemy. I can understand the pressure on health workers. And that's why Mike saved their, the heroes. And I fully, I fully agree. And I want them to continue to be like that. Thank you. Thank you very much. Stephanie, one question, and then we will go, we will go to join us online. Stephanie, please. Please join the mic. Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Reuters, Stephanie Nebihay. You've had, I think about 4,000 cases announced overnight. Are you, but we're coming out of some of the incubation periods, the upper bounds for some of the incubation periods for some people. Are you getting a sense that we're perhaps nearing the peak or is it too soon to say that? I don't know if that's rather perhaps a question for Mike. Thank you. Thank you for that. No, I think it's right now too early to make predictions on numbers, although we are pleased that the numbers from today is the first day in which the overall numbers of confirmed cases reported for China have dropped. And so we're thankful, and I'm sure our colleagues in the front line in China are thankful for that too. But that is very difficult to make any prediction related to that. There's still in the middle of an intense outbreak, and we need to be very careful on making any predictions. The new confirmed cases, you're seeing this in graphs, it looks like the cumulative number looks like the daily numbers are rising, but the actual number reported today compared to the number reported yesterday is actually down on the day. And doesn't mean anything, but at least it's not going in the wrong direction. And equally we've seen, and we've said this before, there has been that constant increase in cases in Hubei province, but we haven't seen that same acceleration in provinces outside Hubei. And equally we haven't seen that acceleration in Hong Kong and Macau in Taiwanese people either. So I think, again, we're seeing a relatively stable situation outside Wuhan Hubei, but as you said, Stephanie, and you are correct, there are cycles of transmission, and we may see those cases increase in the coming days. But at least for the moment, things are stable, but 4,000 or nearly 3,700 cases of coronavirus confirmed in a single day is nothing to celebrate. It's certainly still a great worry. Thank you very much. We will now go online and please, one question per journalist. Let's try Nourit from NPR. Nourit, we didn't get to speak to you yesterday. Can you hear us now? Yes, I can hear you. Thanks, I appreciate it. I wanted to ask you about Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang. He's one of the doctors who first reported concerns about the coronavirus cases back in early January and who was reportedly arrested by police for spreading rumors. There's a report now that he contracted coronavirus himself and he has now died. Do you have any comment about this? Thank you, Nourit, for this question. Yeah, we're very sad to hear of the loss of Dr. Li Wenliang. We're very sorry to hear the loss of any frontline worker who's attempted to care for patients and we ourselves have lost our friends in the frontline, so we should celebrate his life and mourn his death with his colleagues. Thank you very much. We will now go to Kai Kufer-Schmidt. Kai, can you hear us? Yes, thanks for taking my question. So I really wanted to ask what the situation is, what you can tell me about Africa. What is the diagnostic capabilities that are there? You know, how are things being tested and what are you doing to make sure that if it is introduced, the virus, that there will be, you know, that there is the capacity to deal with it? Thank you, Kai, for the question. So I'll take that question. So thanks for that. So we have a global laboratory network that is meeting multiple times per week to discuss how we can improve and increase diagnostic capacity. There are referral labs that have been identified across the globe where samples can be shipped to support countries that don't currently have the capacity. Secondly, we are working to increase national capacity and we're building upon the influenza labs that exist globally. And thirdly, we are trying to procure and identify tests that can be shipped. And as the director general said, more than 250,000 tests were shipped this week. We're also looking for other sources of tests that can be shipped so that those labs that can do diagnostic work, molecular testing, PCR testing across Africa, can detect cases quickly. Thank you very much, Dr. Maria. Now we will go to Jeremy Lange from RFE. Jeremy, can you hear us? Yes, I can hear you. Thank you, Tarek. A quick one for Dr. Tedros. You mentioned earlier that some countries are withholding information about coronavirus or at least not sharing them in due time. And Human Rights Watch, on the other hand, pointed out that China might have been hiding information at the beginning of the epidemic and made things worse. I'd like to have your comment on that. Thank you, Jeremy. We're still waiting data from a number of countries in terms of fully completing their sending of data to WHO, but with regard to your question regarding China, in terms of data, it's very difficult at this stage to look retrospectively and reimagine what the dynamics of the epidemic were in late December, early January. But from our observation of the situation, China has reported those first clusters in association with the Wuhan market and did that in an extremely timely fashion. But we don't know the source of the outbreak as such. We don't know that there may have been two or three different animals involved and possibly in different settings. What we do know is that the Chinese authorities had a special surveillance system in place for picking up unusual pneumonia. That system was active in Wuhan and as soon as that system activated with a cluster of unusual pneumonia cases, they were reported immediately to WHO and subsequent laboratory investigations were undertaken. There's a difference between what may be happening at a community level and what this system can detect and report. And from our perspective, the public health authorities in China, as soon as they detected an unusual signal, you can imagine here in China, it's winter, it's the flu season. People with pneumonia, it isn't an unusual thing. Two people or three people, there are millions of people living in Wuhan. So picking out a signal of an unusual event that may be associated with a particular place is not an easy thing to do. It's very easy to look back and retrospect and it's very easy to assign some kind of easy process that should have been carried out. It is not that easy. The signal was picked up from a very large signal of winter disease and winter pneumonia and that was reported to us immediately by public health authorities. And for that, we're very grateful. And maybe if we see it in other words, as you know, China is the most connected country with the rest of the world. Cases would have made it to other countries if there was a serious hiding in China. Because China may be able to hide what's happening inside, but cannot hide the number of cases in other countries. And as you may remember, when we had cases in China, there was no case in the rest of the world. And when the number of cases was increasing in China, even when we declared FIG, the number of cases elsewhere was not more than 100. Even as we speak, we have outside China 225 cases, while in China we have more than 28,000. So it's very difficult, given the facts, to say that China was hiding. Because, you know, many Chinese travel and many cases would have made it if there was a delay. So that's how we understand it. But as I said yesterday, for anyone who wants to know what happened from the start to the end, we will have the after-review action that we will do with China to learn from what happened from the start to the end and learn from it, and then prevent any problems in the future. Thank you very much, Dr. Ryan and Dr. Tetris. We go now to Betsy from Wall Street Journal. Betsy, can you hear us? Yes, thank you, Tarik. I have a question from Mike based on some comments from yesterday. Mike, you mentioned that you were doing assessments of public health measures, I guess, such as quarantines taken by countries around the world. I wonder if you could talk about that a little bit more. What are you assessing and what are you planning to do with these assessments? Yes, thanks for the question. The assessment is almost complete. Under the IHR, where the WHO has issued temporary recommendations, where countries have exceeded or appear to have exceeded those recommendations, we are bound by the IHR to seek information from that member state regarding the rationale they have used for exceeding the measures as advised in the IHR. The IHR does not deny or prevent, it does not prevent a country from taking measures, but what it does is it requires the countries to justify the risk assessment and the value of the public health measures from their perspective. This is a very important balance because it is very easy to make, very difficult to make a law that can, an international law that can predict every eventuality and every particular circumstance that might occur. So all risk assessment and public health in some senses is local. It is depending on the local situation, the local dynamics, the local capacities, because in some circumstances countries may feel they don't have the capacity to take one measure, but they do have a capacity to take another measure. So it's like having tools in a toolkit. Sometimes you have a limited toolkit and you have to use it in a certain way. So we have to respect the fact that countries have to make certain decisions based on their circumstances, often sometimes, based on community perceptions. The cultural perception of fear for contagion is very different all over the world and governments have to respond also to community expectations and perceptions around protection of their health. So governments are in a very difficult position. They have a very fine balance to strike and what we try to do is make that decision transparent and we share that justification with all of the other member states. So at least other member states see so that's the process we're completing at the moment. Thank you very much. One more question from online and we are then back in the room. Ann Gullen from Telegraph. Ann, can you hear us? Yes, thanks very much for taking my question. You said one of the things that you weren't sure about was the severity of the disease and I just wondered now have all the case reports coming through whether you have at least other sort of beginnings of an idea of how severe the disease is. I just wondered whether people really do need to be in hospital or whether that's just a kind of a precautionary measure or whether the disease is more severe than other sort of similar pneumonia trials. Thank you. What we're seeing from the reports on severity so as you know the big things that we're looking at are severity and transmission and with regards to severity we have a clinical network that we've pulled together that meets multiple times per week. We have clinicians that are actually treating patients across the globe and they are sharing their experiences of dealing with these patients and what we're seeing and what we're hearing from these reports is that there is the full spectrum of disease. You have mild cases which look like the common cold which have some respiratory symptoms sore throat, runny nose fever all the way through pneumonia and there can be varying levels of severity of pneumonia all the way through multi-organ failure and death so it is that full spectrum of disease. What is important is to determine which proportion of those infected fall in that spectrum of disease. We know that their underlying conditions and advanced age make an individual more at risk for developing severe disease and death. Individuals who are over 60 years old have a higher risk of death. Individuals with underlying conditions like diabetes, like hypertension unfortunately these are common comorbidities that we see are risk factors for respiratory pathogens including this novel pathogen. The clinical network is having very detailed discussions around the progression of disease. They're having detailed discussions about what are the certain types of characteristics of these individuals looking at pregnant women if pregnant women are infected and so more will come from these teleconferences and we will share more as we learn more. Thank you very much. We go back to the room for a few questions here. We had one question here then Elaine. Okay, Xing from Xinghua News Agency. Can you hear me? Dr. Debra, since January 23rd the population of Wuhan has been confined in the city for almost 15 days now. So we have to say this sacrificed a lot for the prevention of spreading the virus. Is there anything right now that you want to say? Any messages that you want to send to them at this difficult time for them? Thank you. I think the Wuhan people and Hubei province in general they're paying a lot and first of all I would like to appreciate them and thank them for their cooperation and for believing that the actions they are taking it protects their people and also it protects the rest of the world. And doing this for humanity is something beyond words and I am really thankful for that and proud of what they are doing with gratitude. I was in Beijing and I wish I had visited Wuhan but I would like to assure the Wuhan people or the residents of Wuhan that I will go and visit them one day hopefully very soon but at the same time express that my spirit is actually always with them and with others who are fighting this dreadful virus and we are in it together and with this kind of solidarity and thinking for one another with one human race I know we will defeat this virus thank you for reminding me and hope to see them but until then I wish them all the best and I feel that I am among them actually today as I speak even. Thank you. Dr. Tedros, Elaine please. Dr. Tedros, Elaine Fletcher from Health Policy Watch. We are seeing a lot of high-income countries imposing travel restrictions as you have discussed while many low-income countries and middle-income countries have left their doors wide open. We asked if WTO could provide some more technical guidance on what should be done because people are perhaps very confused and maybe the countries that are most vulnerable might be left more vulnerable if they don't have any guidance on these sorts of measures they should take. Is there a paradox here with what's going on? Actually high-impact quarantine measures are some of the most expensive measures to implement that you could imagine and low-income countries have choices to make and frankly we've always believed that the real point of entry of a virus to a country is very often in a poorly equipped emergency room in a doctor's clinic where there's no awareness of the disease and not necessarily in points of quarantine or points of entry where we do support entry screening and other measures as a part of a comprehensive package but what we absolutely have to avoid in this case is disease arriving in an unprotected health facility with untrained, unaware workers and having an amplification of disease in a clinical setting. We've seen what's happened with other diseases that do that, be it LASA or Ebola in clinical settings in countries with weak health systems a virus like this can do in that setting so we are focusing on supporting countries with weaker health systems to strengthen the key, most important elements of their system, their ability to detect, their ability to confirm their ability to isolate cases safely and provide safe care. The last thing we need at this point is the frontline health workers themselves becoming victims of the disease this is an absolutely important factor so again where countries have more resources they can put in place much more comprehensive measures and you can argue what the cost efficiency of that is and you can argue many things what we want to do is be sure to extract the value from every dollar that's invested through and with developing countries in particular that we ensure we get the best value for that investment and yes we are looking as we speak at a systematic review of quarantine measures historically and trying to give more advice and give them more information as how to make those trade-offs so what is the value for money of quarantine measures and the historical costs of doing that so we'll continue to push that information to our member states but we don't believe there's a paradox in that approach Thank you very much let's go now back to our journalist online can we Chris please to get Helen Branswell can you hear me go ahead okay thank you very much I want to find out more about mild cases is the picture coming into focus at all about whether mild cases are transmitting and what potentially have to drive this outside of China Thanks Helen we're learning there are some studies that need to be conducted and these are studies these are virus shedding studies and we need to look at mild individuals all the way through severe individuals and that systematic data collection and sampling of mild cases as well as severe cases is something that's really urgently required for us to get a clear handle on this and to quantify the amount of shedding that is happening from mild individuals to severe individuals we do know that mild individuals shed virus we know that severe individuals shed virus which proportion of those that drive this outbreak it needs to come into more clear focus we know that the more symptoms you have that you are more likely to transmit this is a respiratory pathogen and so transmission is through droplets through close contact with droplets but we do know that individuals that are mild also have respiratory samples so this data is something that is urgently needed and we advocate for countries over the world if you have cases to collect this type of information from your cases so that we can quantify this we are also expanding collaboration and again the DG mentioned that the R&D work that is going to rolling out as we speak is based on years of investment in the R&D blueprint platform and with our partners well this work on coronavirus is built on 70 years experience in influenza surveillance so we are building on a massive network of influenza labs linking them with emerging disease labs and coronavirus labs and effectively going to use those antenna that we have in the global system listening votes to see if this virus is pitching up in a broader community sense we can't wait for the serology test to become available because at the moment we can only test for the virus as in the particles of the virus in swabs from the patient but we can't test is someone who is perfectly well whether they have had a recent infection and we need serology test blood test that can test that that we can look at the overall population attack rates how many people in the population have had the infection and then we can make the comparison with severity we don't have those tests we have hardly known this virus for a month it's incredible that we have PCR tests it's incredible that we are able to diagnose it but we need the serology test to be learned but we have as I said a lot of capacity out there we need to put all of that capacity to use to learn more about the actual impact of this disease at community level can I pivot back to the research meeting next week so this is exactly this meeting that Dr. Tedros mentioned on the 11th and 12th next week of bringing together the world's scientists public health professionals individuals who are treating patients to come together and say what are the most critical things that need to be done this is one of them but there are many thank you very much we have a time for one more question let's go to Rony from New York Times Rony can you hear us? do we have any clear data I know you've mentioned people over 60 being more vulnerable with people with underlying conditions but do we have anything else about the demographic breakdown men seem to be more affected what kind of data do we have from confirmed cases in China so yes I mentioned that gender and age so we have some data from Chinese authorities around age that I mentioned the older ages we have seen a breakdown of advanced age and it appears even over 80 is the highest risk factor that increasing age increases the risk increases the risk for death thank you very much so I think we will have to stop here and again apologies that we are changing the rooms this is because of executive board hopefully as of next week we will have a permanent place for us we will see them tomorrow for sure for those who didn't have a time to ask questions today then you will have an opportunity tomorrow thanks to everyone who was watching us on our Twitter and Facebook account to all journalists online see you again tomorrow thank you very much everyone bring this up here we will kill the display for now and bring our table up so I thought that was worth watching yeah I love Spiderman agreed after I watched it today earlier I was like ok we need to watch that that was very speechless there is so much you can unpack in that news briefing I've listened to some other ones that the WHO does and other people do there was triggers there that for example the director general the person that was sitting in the middle he went off on he went off for a few minutes on sending his best to the people on Wuhan and why he couldn't visit there he didn't say why he couldn't visit there he was sad that he didn't visit there he would like to visit them someday that to me seemed very weird that's the one I was mentioning that I love Spiderman that sounded to me very weird another thing that I liked is the lady that was speaking she really focused on that there are different levels of this virus the sickness so everyone that gets infected doesn't get sick to the same level some people just show flu symptoms and live their life and they recover now the kicker is if some people are getting this virus and they're showing the flu symptoms and nothing else kicks in if they're at home they're going to go seek treatment because they're going to say oh it was just a flu so are they still going to be contagious are they sparing it to other people H-H-O-H Nicholas how are you doing that's just so odd to say that that was so odd to say that I love you Spiderman that was so odd to say that when he went off I'm assuming that's what you're referring to I hope you're doing well Nicholas you're probably getting ready to go to work brother you got your schedule down packed so I found that interesting the other person the ex one level down from the general the white guy that was sitting on the I guess left side he also mentioned that the graph is starting to taper down calm down a little bit is looking less like this which was a good sign it did come up that certain countries are not able to close their borders quarantine and they did mention that funds are quite important so there's a you know there's a drive for money there's that, there's this there was so much there that was an odd little bit and then I went back to processing my data getting the graphs ready for you guys to take a look at them right and for those of you who've joined these are the graphs that we've seen so far this is the table that because we're coming towards the end of the stream I figure we'll do another run through the graphs and I'll keep on reading the chat yeah bro just after 6am here so time for work you get up, me and you have the same schedule but on different time zones I get up fairly early too in the class I like it, I like it a lot so we basically I provided 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 graphs right so each one of these columns is a graph that we're just about to cycle through because we talked about these graphs at the beginning of the stream so might as well give everyone now that we got the information from WHO we talked a little bit about it watched a little short video explaining what it is according to WHO and stuff like this now we can look at the data again which is one thing you do with mathematics you plot your data you look at the data, you tabulate your data you try to figure out your data and then you go and get more information and you come back to your data and take a look at it with brand new eyes right that's the whole process of analyzing data ok so let's pop up these tables so the first graph we're going to take a look at is the number of infections in China, mainland number of infections and the next one is number of infections outside of China and then percent growth per day in China percent growth per day outside of China death toll numbers, recovery numbers the death ratio and the recovery ratio ok close this and I'll provide these link to this data the tabulated stuff and graphs in discord in our discord page most likely in science because this is data that we're doing and I'll probably tweet these out tomorrow maybe and mines and gab vk I started off too so let me close this here's the graph this is what the graph looks like with total confirmed cases coming out of China right this is for two and a half week period starting from January 19, 2020 going all the way to February 4, 2020 so it's 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, well 17 days why am I counting the scale right I was going to ask if you could post the data in discord I'll look out for it for sure if not tonight I'll do it tomorrow because I'm going fairly ballistic today I'm going to be burnt out after this right so this is the first graph keep this in mind this is the key one because this is where the epicenter is and we're seeing how the numbers are growing right because the next graph is the numbers outside of China which is looking like this it looks linear so this looks a little bit better than this graph this graph still has an exponential feel to it this one which is number of confirmed cases outside of China still looks linear right but there is a little bit of oscillation there and this is at the beginning stages because if we look at the China one in here the day 1 to 5 was still linear then we start getting cases coming in and start going exponential so keep this in mind this is in the early stages right so this is the numbers of infected total confirmed outside of China mainland China this is the percent growth per day in China so how much the number of infected number of confirmed cases has grown from day to day so we're sitting around 20% so if 10,000 cases were confirmed yesterday then it would be 12,000 cases today right so 20% growth per day that's what it looks like it's stabilizing on hopefully this goes down outside of China the percent growth per day is starting to oscillate around the 10% mark which is better than China this is again at the beginning stages that's why you see high range maxes per day we need this thing to stabilize to get a better idea of what's going on with the data this is the total deaths both inside and outside of China but outside there's only one as far as I know one maybe two so majority of these deaths are in China looks like it doesn't look good in the number of one how many days? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 days the number of confirmed deaths has gone from around 200 to 550 or something so more than double in 5 days the good thing about this is the recovery rate is growing faster as it should if it's 2% mortality which is what the data indicates right now that we know the recovery should be increasing a lot more, a lot faster so right now the total recovered has gone from around 200 to 1200 let's say so that's six times which is great in the same period that the number of deaths have more than doubled a little bit let's say doubled so number of deaths have doubled and the recovery rate has gone up six times which is great and then we have the death rate the percent ratio for the mortality rate which is again around 2% and this is data from China basically what we know we'll get confirmation of this hopefully it doesn't grow but if it grows we'll know if this data is accurate or not misleading might be better to graph death per day well we did oh death per day yeah well if you take into consideration if you do death per day what you can do is you can look at the death ratio and the growth rate that's why I graph this one this is the percent growth per day in China I want to look at it not the absolute numbers because the absolute numbers aren't the absolute numbers is not what you want to go with you want to see relativistic numbers and relativistic numbers is percentages you're looking percent per day I don't want to look at the number of deaths per day because that's going to be increasing because there's more people infected you want to know how fast it's growing right and hopefully kick that down to zero and then people will recover right so that's what I was more interested in my concern about the number of death is if complications by pneumonia or flu death were actually coronavirus death and from what the WHO said the kidneys are failing and stuff too right and then this one is the recovery rate which is the percent of recovery which is increasing which is a really good sign right initially there was only around one and a half percent that were recovering about five days ago six days ago right now we're up to four percent and that percent should kick up a lot which is a great sign right so that's what we want to look at and again this is the table that we graph the information on so I just want to share that information we will do a follow up to this we'll look at the data maybe most likely in a couple of weeks let the data settle down a little bit and we'll create more graphs is there a way to find that out which part of it I love you spider-man the growth rate per day because this is the first level of analysis we could do we could take all the data and try to come up with some kind of function right and do a prediction of what it might look like three months from now I'm pretty sure CDC and WHO and stuff are doing it but again as they mentioned in the talk in the media what we just watched this is in the early stages from what Sao Saka said my concern about the number of deaths is if complication by pneumonia or fluid death was actually coronavirus death they do have to test the kits so I'm assuming that the confirmed number is everyone that they've already tested that has confirmed that they have the coronavirus I'm assuming that anyone that dies if they haven't tested their blood or saliva or whatever the test is if they haven't tested it they're not including it in the number confirmed so I'm assuming the number confirmed means they've tested it so they know it's the coronavirus so they do have to test for the coronavirus why is there 343 total death on 131 because that's what it was January 31st and these could be delayed a little bit they might be releasing these numbers once they get confirmation from some central body that's coming up but then 305 the next day oh I must have punched this in wrong so death thank you for that death total 305 yeah that part is wrong thank you very much for catching that mistake I'm gonna fix that up so let me see what the data says on the website so January 31st oh I did this because I wasn't tallying the stuff up what do you call it I wasn't tallying the stuff up on a daily basis from the website I was collecting it I had to go down to their spreadsheet so I summed it up I was doing manual I didn't download their spreadsheet so I was doing accounts manually so what I'm gonna do is go do a count on that and the table for that is death total so let's bring up the death total and find that data death ratio death total here's the death total so let's see which that point is and this is what you do that's the data right there so if this is the third data point 1, 2, 3 the one that does a dip 3 or 5 so that one must be higher so I'm gonna check the death rates from the spreadsheet and if you guys get a chance from this spreadsheet from this guy it's always good to have second pair of eyes on this stuff right when you're manually punching in data that's one of the main things with data sets but if you go to this website in the bottom of the graph you'll see the links downloadable google sheets new link here and then there's time series table here and what not I just joined this would you say the situation is better or worse than what I hear on the new depends what news you're listening to if you're listening to anything mainstream propagandist I wouldn't bother listening to them I heard of the potential masking by government and what possibly true Gabbo what do you call it we just spent a whole couple of hours going through this right we talked a fair bit about this and watched a video from what do you call it WHO talking about it and what not so there's a lot to unpack here right we don't know right now it's in the early stages what we're doing is tabulating our data taking a look at what's going on according to the official numbers being reported but we're also I am anyway I'm keeping track of some of the theories that are flying around because I'm really interested in those some of those theories I tend to believe more than centralized institutions but start propagating that until we get some proof and until we're a little bit deeper into this so we can have a little bit of mathematics to let us know what's going on my main concern just to let you guys know my main concern with this is India Africa South America hopefully it doesn't get there but it will most likely but basically my main concern is if this thing goes into where it has now that this thing has gone into areas which are don't have as much resources at their disposal to contain the virus to see what happens there right that's my main concern is just to let you guys know the theories there's like five or six theories right now that are possibly viable but we can talk about those on another day maybe during a politics or something like this I just want to focus on the data for this one the official official numbers right aside from that gang that's a two hour stream on the coronavirus I hope you found it informative like we'll follow this up we'll continue to follow this thing and we'll do most likely another update to this table in a couple of weeks I'll keep track of the numbers and if you I'll post these this table and the graphs on discord hopefully I'll get a chance to correct the 305 data but if you see any mistakes that I might have done in the spreadsheet I could have done easily please let me know and we'll update it we'll figure it out maybe we'll create an open spreadsheet where people can play around with the data I'm glad you liked it my pleasure Nicholas my pleasure I thank the Twitch gods for recommending your channel that they recommend me cool YouTube is not recommending me anymore since I've been loading on Julian Assange and doing this stuff they don't even allow coronavirus anything to be monetarized but this is what I do I like data, I like information I share what I'm interested in this is what I'm doing that's one of the reasons I really like Twitch right now because they don't have major Disney filters up so they haven't kicked people down into the never-levered lens like the way we have to a certain degree on YouTube thank you Chucho we will have an update to your next schedule will you have an update the update I love you Spiderman soon give me a few days I gotta catch up I gotta catch up most likely we're not gonna do a stream because I do want to shoot a video I have a comic book haul that I've done I printed off 11 pages I collected all the did all the research who the artist, the writers were and a little bit of history it's only like 26 books but I want to go through that with you guys and I'm gonna try to shoot that in the next few days so I do want to make a video on that and I have to upload all the live streams we've done so far I want to cut this little segment out the initial segment where we went through the tables I would say an update on the next schedule in a few days in a few days I'm also this is the first since I've been feeling had the flu this is the first four days in a row that we did so it is taxing it has been taxing online on my throat and stuff so I think I need a little bit of but most likely towards the end of next week I'm gonna have more streams coming in thanks so much my pleasure siru I'm so giddy I can't wait for more comic book videos me too I've been dying to make this oh I love you Spiderman oh no I won't I won't give you any spoilers I'll show you I'll show you in that video that we're gonna upload you'll be happy you'll be happy aside from that gang thanks for being here thank you for the discussion thank you for the subs thank you for the follows thank you for the support and thank you for correcting my data entry mistakes I'll try to correct it tomorrow morning or tonight and I'll have these up tomorrow on discord for sure and possibly on on the social networks as well no problem thank you for stream my pleasure enjoy the stream stay healthy you guys as well and wash your hands bye everyone hope you have a fantastic evening or morning bye for now