 Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, we talk to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Mark it down on your calendar. If you'd like to check out Teddy's work, folks, head on over to the front page of TFNN. You can try out the Tiger 4X report right under the Newsletters tab. 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not happy with that service, you're not using it for any reason, nothing to risk. Teddy Kegstad, we have the Euro back under parity and we got some action yields ahead of Jackson Hole. Good morning. Yeah, good morning, Tommy. Everyone who's been reading the Tiger 4X report must be happy because we've been nailing it the past couple of weeks with this nice bounce in the dollar and the sell-off in the interest rate market. Listen, you've had some great calls, man. It's pretty awesome. Where do you want to kick things off? I know they're all kind of interrelated, as you've explained to us many times before, but where do you want to start things off as we go around here? Oh, I think the dollar is definitely the big topic, and the reality is, is now with the 30-year and the 10-year, I mean, we called it already a couple of weeks ago and we had that short-term top at the point, at that time, we were calling it for that when the correction was coming to an end, and now we know that that high is in, that lower move high is solid, and we're looking to make lower move lows, no matter what, especially with the Fed speak. I mean, the only thing that would change my perspective, I mean, everyone knows I'm a dollar bull, an oil bull, and an interest rate bearer as far as pricing, and unless the people at Jackson Hole can convince our Fed to become dovish or at least no longer so hawkish, I can't see how we're not gonna see going into the third, end of the third quarter, see a major U.S. dollar rally ahead of us. That's pretty cool when you're sitting at 109, as in, you know, we got a bull potentially, off of a bull, off a bull, accelerating things, and the Euro's sitting, you know, under parity, and that yield, approaching 3.1%, I was talking to Kevin Hinks about it this morning, pretty interesting that we're getting such a move ahead of such a Fed event when we've seen that the market likes to kind of get ahead of the move that the market's pricing in. We have some Fed speak on Friday, of course, with the chairman, and we have rates that we haven't seen in almost two months, which is pretty interesting, and the market's sitting pretty healthy levels when you think about where the market was as the last time we kind of blew through 3.1% at those lofty levels. Right, and crude oil is gonna be one of the little dominoes that really kicks things into gear because you gotta realize when rates were in the correct, when we were in the corrective mode, okay, interest rate pricing was going up, so that put pressure on the dollar. Well, pressure on the dollar also puts pressure on crude because crude is basically valued in dollars through most of the world, you know, and it's also valued in Euros. So the Euro's not strong, and the dollar was coming back, so that means crude came back in pricing. But now what's happening, the dollar is escalating, the dollar is getting much stronger against the Euro, which makes the Euro weak against oil, which means that oil is now going up in price just because of currency valuations, you know? I mean, it's just the reality is most people buy oil in either Euro dollars or in US dollars, and because of that correlation right now, that should probably give a lift to the oil market, and if it does, I mean, if we start to see the 10 year and the 30 year really become unhinged over the next couple of weeks and start to pressure lows, and the US dollar starts to really start to make highs, like let's say the US dollar goes up another like 5% over the next two weeks, and the interest rates go down another about, let's just say five, six basis handles in both the 10 year and the 30 year, which is very reasonable. What would that do to oil? That could shoot oil back up to over $100 or even have it going on towards 110, you know, especially as you hit into the September expirations, you know? And I would be very, remember we were talking about a bear trap in oil, and also bull traps in the interest rate quadrants, you know, a couple of weeks ago. Well, we were right on that. Now I'm not saying that that means we're gonna be right now, but the momentum of this thought process is really getting accelerated right now. That was a great breakdown. I mean, folks, you heard that breakdown. That's the reason why you should go check out the Tiger Forex report, because I mean, Teddy, you just, you've walked us through some of those, you know, relationships in the years past, and it's just such a great education, how they're all related. And right now it is working out. And like you say, it's not always the case, but yes, and from a, I love how from a rational, reasonable standpoint it all makes sense too. Well, you know, you're dealing with demand of different instruments that are all interrelated in a big way. And yeah, crude, I mean, huge move over the last couple of days to 95 bucks. And folks, I have it up on my chart, and I had even said to some of my subscribers, Teddy, you know, the move has been so large from 123, and this is just the move from June, not even from the first spike high. It's just been such a big pullback. You even get a 3-8-2 bounce of Fibonacci. That's to $100, and that's just a 3-8-2 bounce, let alone even a 6-1-8, which sometimes is not a complete reversal trend. That's up to 109.16, I have my chart, almost 110. So 100, 110, we're at 95 today. We're at 85 only a couple of days ago. How about the yen, Teddy, and how that relates to the conversation, of course, with the yen, some decent action. 137 right now chopping around for a couple of days at this level, but what's your take here on the yen as it's related to everything? It's in a creeper rally mode, just because of the levels that it's at, but I'm still a buy-break scenario, and I think we're gonna see the yen pop 140 probably over the next couple of weeks, especially if we start to get this accelerated move. If we really see, let's say we see the bonds in the 10-year tank, like two, three basis handles going into Friday. That would probably take the Euro down another two basis handles, hit the pound, and that would say that most likely you'll see the US dollar Swiss pushing towards and getting really close to parity again. And if that happens, I can't see how the US dollar yen can not go up and start pressuring highs. And if we get a rally in oil file over the next few days as well, let's say we start pushing $100, I see the US dollar yen definitely trying to make new highs going into next week. Yeah, it's pretty wild. And just back to the crude even, you're talking about that bounce. Amazing that it actually bounces from where it was in October of last year, almost like right to within about 30 cents on my chart and that's rolling futures. But yeah, it seems like risk reward wise when you're back to levels of last October in crude down from 120 and change. Yeah, not outlandish. And can I add one more point to, please? I'm an S&P guy by nature, you know, and I spent a lot of time in there. The way the S&Ps have sold off going into yesterday's close and the way they're looking, if we're talking about is really going on, you should, that means that S&Ps might start to really sell off also. I mean, I got a target down at 40, 62, 75, which, you know, that's not that hard to hit over the next week or so. You know, if that happens that locks in with what we're talking about now. So the S&Ps could be the big confirmation of this, you know, extended wave where you're going to see a big shift, big money's going to start going bid in the, you know, the U.S. dollar and you can go offer in the interest rate quadrant, you know, now we are coming towards month end in a holiday market. So we think we could see a little stabilization, be careful next because end of the month window dressing, you're going to see a lot of money going into bond funds and stuff like that. But I don't know. I really think that the overall momentum is what we've been talking about today. So. Yeah, it's a tough case to argue against man with the moves that we're getting. And you make great point. We come into the long weekend, we come back and from the Tuesday we come back, it's two weeks from when that Fed meeting actually begins. So we go right into it yet again. If everything is kind of so related, you know what, can you stay with us, Teddy for the last few minutes? Cause I want to get, I'll give you, I wanted to get, so with that in mind, right? Maybe as traders, as we will tease it, what I wanted to talk about with Teddy as we come back folks is, you know, what data might really decide this, if any, because if it's potentially about where the rates go, you know, we have Chairman Powell, are we going to be watching, whether it's the jobs number, the CPI, how important is that for the next meeting? We'll leave it at that. We'll be right back with Teddy folks. Stay tuned. Sounds good. Welcome back folks. The S&P is basically flat right now at 41 and 31. We jump over to the dollar index up about 38 basis points, 10901 on the dollar index. So to phrase that question a little bit better, Teddy, obviously the CPI is going to matter. The jobs are going to matter. Is that where you might see a change of trend? If you're looking for one, or do you think at least we're going a couple months down the line with the path that we're on, or are you looking for the numbers that come out in September with a keen eye? I had to wear that shapes maybe the Fed and their path at their September meeting. Okay, well, this is a very good question. As far as these are the numbers we need to look at, but it's not just ours, it's globally. You gotta remember, we have an election going on and because of the softness in oil and interest rates over the past few months, the correction of those markets I think are now done. That's caused the softening with the CPI, the PPI and things like that. Unemployment is the biggest one we need to watch in our country. But that's the way we compute it isn't the same as many other countries. You gotta remember that there's a lot of people that are out of work right now that don't count for unemployment anymore and they're not going into jobs because of restrictions. So there's dynamics that they don't have in other countries that we have. And I think until because of the softness in oil we've had over the past couple of months, it's gonna be reflective in the data. They're not gonna be CPI and PPI are not gonna be going up as much as they have been. But this is short lived. If I'm right about the scenario we talked about before the break and oil starts going up, rates start going up and also we start to see especially a hit in the stock market well guess what's gonna happen there? CPI is going up, PPI is going up and unemployment will start to go up. And that's gonna be a very big issue for our economy. But what does that mean globally with our currency, you gotta look at Europe. There are numbers that are ones that matter the most. If you see a continuing of higher unemployment, higher CPI, higher PPI in the UK and especially in the EU, look at Germany especially. That's the number one marker right now. If they keep trending the way they're going and I've been talking about this for months, that's not good. That's horrible for the Euro. It's horrible for European, I mean exports will be cheap but who's gonna buy them? And then also because they first of all they have an embargo against most of their customers. So yeah, it's gonna be definitely something to watch. I'm glad I brought you back man. That was an awesome two minutes folks. Go back and listen to the interview right at our YouTube channel. Teddy, thank you so much man. And we'll talk to you next Wednesday. Sounds good Tommy, take care.