 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network At this point we just got to accept that Patrick Mahomes is the boogeyman I was on the 49ers for last night's game and did not feel great the entire game didn't feel good at the end either But it is fun to see a dynasty in action It's fun to watch players as great as Patrick Mahomes coaches greatest Andy Reed Get rewarded for how good their process is and all the success that they've had So a bummer to lose money But still a pretty fun game to watch and in a delight to watch this cheese dynasty in full swing But I think beyond that there are some key takeaways from last night's game and the entirety Of this 2023 nfl season so I wanted to spend today Going back through what I noticed during yesterday's game not talking about like individual teams and stuff like that But like overall process based holistic stuff and talk about how we can apply that to betting We get to the 2024 nfl season so hopefully Learning from my losses uh last night to make things better for 2024 welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fandall podcast network and fandall research. My name is jim saunas I am a managing editor of digital media for fandall research here to recap all the key takeaways from super bowl 58 for last night just talking through Key things that we can learn from betting this year super and I guess the entirety of the 2023 nfl season as well Three key takeaways from me that I think are worth implementing when we get around to nfl once again in months Which is unfortunate to think about but hey, uh, it'll be here before you know it as it always is We'll dive into all that here in just one second But first we are still here five days per week on the covering the spread podcast beats Despite the fact it is no longer nfl season tomorrow We're going to take a look at the nfl drafts take a look at the early betting markets for that wednesday day tona 500 discussion coming up with dr. Nick giffin of the action network. So we're still here five days per week getting you ready Talking betting right here on this stream. 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They do not dictate the outcome They're not on the field players do passing offense passing defense coaching things like that matter And those are the things that dictate who wins and who loses a football game So it's not really analysis to say What side the public is betting because it does not help you handicap the game Nobody with a good betting model is tweaking their betting model based on what the public is betting Just a proxy for actual analysis, you know, if you can't decide. Well, I don't know. Let's look at the public's betting You're not going to have a lot of success by doing that Now that's not to say that any mention any reference of public betting splits is going to be irrelevant because Let's say I like the 49ers, but a bunch of money is coming into the cheese I could use that to say i'm going to wait until later on to bet this because I could get a better number later on That specifically is fine Because it's an attempt to get the best number possible It doesn't always play out that way because you could see a big bet coming in the niners and you miss out but Predicting market movement is a skill. It's not one I possessed personally I wish I did but it is a skill in this game specifically niners versus cheese The public was on the cheese in a pretty big way now That's not to say that the sharps were not there were smart people on both sides of this game We had dr. Ed fang on and he's one of the people I respect most in the entire betting sphere and I'd like the cheese Plus two and a half So it's not like it was sharps versus squares with this niners versus cheese game But the large majority of the money was coming in on the cheese That doesn't matter. It does not dictate what happens on the field So it should not dictate how you bet again. What I would ask yourself is Do people with good betting models care about what this about this specific thing that's being discussed? If yes, it's okay to talk about it. It matters then because people with with good models Probably are doing the right thing. They're probably Winning money and you want to care what they care about They probably don't care about what the public is betting Center your analysis around things that help one team win while the other team loses and If you hear analysis about public betting that is not talking about when to bet a team It's okay to pause and consider how much weight you want to put into what that person is saying because again We want to focus on the things that actually help dictate who wins a football game And what the public is betting does not dictate that in any way. So Yes, there will be times where sports books wind up Winning a lot of money where the public is on the opposing side But you also do have games like last night where the public is heavily on the cheese and sports books get hammered I mean, that's great because we want the public to win money. We want people to be To to profits people to have good times. We want that so we should cherish these moments for sure I think it's important to note that public money does not play the game It does not dictate who wins or who loses and therefore it's not something we should focus on When trying to make our bets again timing of bets is different But actually who to bet that should not be a factor within your analysis So that's point number one public money Should not be a factor in your analysis of who winds up winning a football game where you want to bet The second one is about rushing in the playoffs or quarterbacks in the past few years We've talked a lot about how much more quarterbacks run during the playoffs than they run During the regular season. They're not as protective of their bodies And it leads to more rushing than what we see during the regular season. This is two impacts One is obvious and one is less so Let's start with the obvious here is that's we can target rushing props or quarterbacks I think preferably we want to go here with alternate markets rather than You know Going over the baseline number example here is patrick mahomes His baseline got jacked up because people were Hammering the over because they were aware of this thing So his baseline rushing prop entering last night was 25 and a half or 26 and a half depending on when you bet it He went over that number in two out of four playoff games So once you account for the hold if you bet that same number for all four games You would have lost money now you might not have had the same number for all four But do you get what i'm saying here? You would have lost money if you had bet the same amount all four games of mahomes to go over 25 and a half or 26 and a half But he had 41 yards in one game and 66 last night So if you're betting him to get 30 plus rushing yards, which isn't often offered but 40 plus is 40 plus rushing yards You're in a better spot and you're going to get a better payout on those bets Because he can go for big games now You're probably not betting mahomes for 100 plus because there's not a lot of design rushes outside of what we saw last night But like for lemar jackson 100 plus that's that's viable josh allen, you know 60 plus that's viable as well So alternate markets are something we should keep looking towards for next year and it's not just mahomes It's josh allen. It's lemar jackson. Joe burrow has done this a ton especially in college He did during the playoffs there at lsu. I think cj stroud will probably be doing this as well We saw it in that georgia game when he was in college ran a bit more in that one Ran a bit in that indie game as well And i'd love to see it from jesson herbert trevor lorence guys like that too This will be an angle we can and should keep attacking So that's the the first takeaway from quarter max rushing during the playoffs is that we should look at rushing market and that's pretty obvious The second part is equally important though and it goes back to last night's game After the 49ers kicked the field going over time the chief's money line is plus 140 now I don't know if that was the best price. That's it's hard to line shop in those spots We're trying to frantically get bets down Before markets move before, you know, you're worried about latency issues and like they're already playing and you haven't bet it yet But that's what I got I got plus 140 In part because I had the 49ers I wanted to lock in a break even night and taking the cheese up plus 140 did so I was basically trying to get out of my niner's exposure and I was able to do that by getting a plus 140 But the other reason I took them a plus 140 last night live was because I knew That in those got to have its situations the chief's offense can reach a new level They can run my homes and not care about what the consequences may be They had a fourth and one early on that overtime drive My homes ran this disgusting triple option picked up a chunk gain. It was awesome He had two rushes for 27 yards on the final drive alone we talked about Live betting models with ed miller on friday and it was a more process based discussions We didn't hear that episode. I would go back to it because it was a very good Forward-looking thing that you can apply to betting not just the nfl next year, but also apply to betting the nba You can apply to betting baseball at times as well So I would check out that discussion with ed even if you're not even though we're not betting nfl until uh september The betting models though as ed discussed know the inputs of the two offenses based on pregame markets They know generally how good the chiefs are generally how good the Niners are But the chief's offense in that pregame market is not the same chief's offense that we're going to see When they're willing to be that aggressive with my homes So I don't know if plus 140 is a good bet or not in the chief's money line. It won obviously but Doesn't mean it's a good bet. Uh, you can have a bad bet that wins pretty often But in that spot, I thought the live betting models were undervalued the chief's offense Because of what they could lean into that they wouldn't lean into in other spots In gotta have it situations. They can reach a new level by letting my homes run That does not mean I want to make this very clear That does not mean you always live bet underdogs in those situations just because they'll run the quarterback more But it is something to keep in mind There are spots where an offense fundamentally changes because of their aggressiveness and Live betting models won't be able to encapsulate that shift because they really do just kind of know What the pregame market say about these specific games I think last night over time was one of those spots where the chief's offense Fundamentally changed given the entire situation and it did present in my eyes at least again I don't know for sure if this is the case But it did in my eyes present value on betting the chiefs plus 140 live knowing that There was a chance the model night the the live betting models might not fully account for The new level that she's can reach in situations like that. So key takeaways are You know not caring about public money looking at quarterback rushing props during the playoffs and Keeping in mind with live betting There are situations where an offense reaches a new level that may not be encapsulated by that betting model The final thing I wanted to discuss is More about the full season than just one game But it does pertain to last night's Super Bowl 2 and we'll get back to what that means in the second Or how it pertain to last night's game in the second But that takeaway is you should bet totals early in the week Because the market gets very efficient as the week goes along even more so Than the market for spreads. I've been running My totals model dating back to week 15 of last year. So it's not like a huge sample But uh the sample on games that I have in my total model and trying to pull it up here and failing All right, so I have got a sample of 360 61 games in my total model We can look back on or sorry divide divide that by two. Um Yes, divide that by two. That's how we number we so we got about 180 something Games in here we can look at to try to draw some takeaways from So in that time on Tuesdays My model is a better mean squared error than the market on Tuesdays Mean squared error is just tells you how far off you were from being right at the final score regardless of direction So if you're three points above if your total is three points above the final total It's the exact same as it with three points below. You're just finding how far off you were regardless of direction So my model has been closer to the result on Tuesdays than the market has been But by game day the market is better by a good amount I'm going to give you numbers here. It's okay if you don't know about what these numbers mean or if the numbers kind of fly through Years, it's okay. I'll tell you what they mean in the second year But the mean squared error for the market in this time improves from 177.91 on Tuesday to 172.9 on game day So improves by five points Uh, well not five like five in terms of mean squared error, which is a lot in that regard My market or my model improves from 176.52 to 175.7. So it gets better And it does improve but not nearly as much as the market improves I can beat the market on Tuesday in terms of mean squared error, but I cannot beat the market on sunday This is why we do the first look shows on Tuesdays because I want to Allow you to lock in some bets early in the week before these markets get pounded into efficiency On the markets where and like I think we can kind of like Show the value betting early by looking at my results based on when I place the bet So or based on whether the market moves with me or against me If we look at the bets the total bets that I've made Since week 15 of last year the bets where the market moves against me. So I could have gotten a better number later on my ROI is negative 17.5 percent when the market does not move from when I bet it so I bet at 47 and a half a close of 47 and a half my ROI is negative 1.8 So basically just losing the hold effectively on that market when I get good movement from a a total that I bet My ROI is 27.4 percent and my overall ROI in totals in this time is positive 8.4 percent So you can see there how important it is to get numbers early and hope they move your direction They won't always I've only gotten positive clv on my bets 63 percent of the time that counts it as a 50 percent like a half when it stays at me so like, you know, it's not totally uh, going to be that way but like You want to bet early on totals because the market's going to get a lot better And your ROI will be a lot better when you get clv on totals versus When you don't get clv or when the number moves against you If I don't get closing line value on a total that I bet I'm Likely losing money and I don't like losing money and that actually did happen in this game because I like the over At 47 points. I had the number at almost 50 Over the weekend that total went down to 46 and a half. So I was going to lose regardless It didn't matter if I bet earlier late. I was going to lose that over Well, I guess I would have won the over five bet later, but that's not the point here Uh, but let's talk about if you like the under if you like the under you had to get that Bet in before it came down. Otherwise, it was a loss because it landed on 47 exactly I'm sure a lot of you are getting your bets in early But in case you aren't that is a good thing to focus on next year And again, that's why we do the first look shows on tuesdays is try to get ahead of where the markets will move Try to get your bets in for an upcoming slate as soon as you feel you have good enough information Where you can feel good enough about placing that bet Obviously you want to account for the fact that like, you know, some things could change it could move against you Or maybe a quarterback gets hurt and that ruins your over stuff like that that can happen for sure but You know, I just pointed to the results and those I've had bad situations like that for me as well This is true for all markets where you want to get in early before You see numbers move But it's especially true when betting totals because of how good the market is there Specifically again the market on tuesday is beatable the market on sunday at least for me I'm talking about me specifically. I can't beat that. I don't think at least based on again My roi when I bet the closing number is negative 1.8 percent. So And it's 27.4 percent if I do get good value negative 17.5 percent when it moves against me So the market is very good at totals and you want to get those bets in early I think that was pertinent last night, but also pertinent more broadly when looking at the total landscape So again three takeaways from me from Super Bowl 58 is that public money is not actual analysis It's a proxy for analysis and it doesn't help dictate who wins games So we shouldn't care about it when we're trying to analyze Which side we want to bet unless we're deciding when we want to bet that We should care about rushing quarterbacks in the playoffs both in terms of betting their player props, but also Because it could present live betting opportunities and finally you want to bet totals early in the week because The market is very very good at close as we saw with last night's game with The final total being a half point off and where that game ended despite the fact it did go to almost Double overtime. So those are my takeaways from last night. They're not gospel any means But that's just my my thoughts on what we saw last night and when we saw across the entire 2023 NFL season, which was a blast for me Hopefully it was a good one for all of you as well. And hopefully you closed things off in a high note last night I didn't personally but I hope you did on your end as mentioned though We are still here each and every weekday breaking down We're gonna be talking basketball hockey UFC NASCAR golf all right here in this exact same podcast feed baseball just around the corner too So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts again If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify And you can find us on the fandal youtube page and fan dual tv plus If you got any questions for me, I'm on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and check out fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you their bets across monday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow get our first look at the 2024 NFL draft This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network