 This is the Late Round Podcast with your host J.J. Zacharisa. Cell Derek Henry. So in week one, the Titans beat the Browns pretty convincingly. Then in week two, Tennessee played a close game against Indianapolis, and then on Thursday, they got beat down by Gardner, Minshew, and the Jags. The reason I'm bringing this up is because even though Derek Henry's end of game production looked fine in those games, the peripheral numbers shifted just enough for me to be worried. Because in week one, Henry had a snap share of 59%. In week two, in a closer game, that fell to 50%. And then in week three, Dion Lewis out snapped Derek Henry in a game where the Titans were trailing. This is always the worry with someone like Derek Henry. He's a very good early down runner and he has touched on upside. But his lack of receiving ability means he needs to be game scripted out of games. And by lack of receiving ability, I also mean how the coaches view him. Coaches have been using him this way throughout his three year career. So this is a little bit scary. There's a chance in any given game that Derek Henry doesn't lead his own backfield and snaps. And it's not as though Tennessee's this really, really good team either. It's not like they're the Patriots where they're locked into a positive game script week in and week out. But the real problem here is the touchdown upside that I talked about. Last year, he had 12 touchdowns. But last year, he rushed for 1059 yards. We know that yards correlate strongly to touchdowns scored. The more yards a player has, the more likely it is for that player to score. From 2014 through 2018, running back scored a rushing touchdown for every 144.9 rushing yards. Last season, Henry scored on every 88.3 rushing yards. Now, he got better opportunities than other running backs did. But even according to ESPN analyst Mike Clay's opportunity adjusted touchdown metric or OTD, Henry outperformed his touchdown tally last year by about three. That was one of the higher marks in the league. Now this season, Henry's got a rushing score for every 70 yards rushing. And he has a receiving touchdown too. Regression is going to hit in the touchdown column for Derek Henry eventually. And those are two really big red flags. He could be game scripted out of games and he has touchdown regression coming. So I think that right now, given how this Tennessee Titans offense looks and given the fact that Henry has already outperformed a bit in the touchdown column, this is the time to sell.