 I hope everyone's following and maybe another example of that is, is basically going back to this buying of the Euro, right? So what I did was I typed in some keywords and you can do this yourself as well on the discussion room. And so, you know, because I think it was job read that, you know, mentioned something about me being a buyer or, you know, maybe just getting a bit confused, I guess, on why I said I may have been looking to buy the Euro, right? Which I wasn't. I was just making an example. Oh, anyway. Oh, okay. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. What is that? Now, I just want to show you and so you can read, yeah, you know, the, the, the, the posts regarding my bias and the changing of my bias from buying Euros back in the beginning of 2021 and the fact that it has remained, right, my bias has remained short for, you know, basically a year and a half since, you know, this period here. So since we were, since I said I was short and changed my bias, which was January the 27th, which was around this period here, right, January 27th. So it's around here. This is when I said that I was changing my bias to go short. Yeah. And it's because I said, I've been reading a few articles, it's 27th of January 2021. And it seems like there's a bit of a shift between buying Euros and selling dollars in the short term. And then at the time, you know, I was looking at that one to three month period, right? It looks like Europe is lagging behind the U.S. in terms of the vaccine mould out there for projections for GDP who also lag. So for the short term, at least I'm looking to see if there are buying opportunities for the dollar as long as data supports my bias. And that's very important. So the data to look for is growing GDP for the dollar and lagging for the Euro. The ECB are potentially being forced to do something about their unwanted strengthening of the Euro. Again, please go to the Eurozone channel to see the latest data and news, which means they may have to find a way to weaken the Euro, right? So at the time there was inflation problems. So they wanted to actually, you know, weaken the Euro. The Fed has been winning the currency wars of currency devaluation over the past six months, but now that it's translating into potential growth for the U.S. economy. So again, any positive GDP and inflation news from the U.S. supports for buyer dollar buyers for the short term. And that again, continued, right? That continued on for four years and yeah, that continued on for about another 18 months up until today, right? So I haven't changed my bias. Now, along the way, I have been tempted and we have had discussions about potentially buying the Euro, right? And I'm going to go through it and show you those conversations, but I never did, right? And the guys like Ken will vouch for that as well. Ken's here and Ken was actually trading against me at one point. He was actually buying the Euro. I think he did a thousand pip trade or something like that on the Euro, didn't you Ken? I think at one point, I think it was earlier this year. Yeah, Euro, New Zealand, right? So Ken ended up buying the Euro, but I ended up still shorting the Euro, right? So during that period. But the point is, is that we're talking about reversals, yeah, and changing and the changing of biases. So again, just looking at, you know, the comments that I've been making and I've said there's a nice technical CPR at the time. So that was around February 2021. But the only issue is that it is against currency fundamental sentiment. The Euro pound has just come out, sorry, Euro pound. Euro GDP has just come out as negative. So personally, it's hard to buy Euros right now. But if you're technically driven, then that's a great setup. Yeah. So there's that. Now, I just want to preface this with buying the Euro against the dollar, by the way. Yeah, the Euro can be a buy, could have been a buy. And it was a buy at certain points against other currencies. But against the dollar, Euro dollar, it wasn't. And again, there were moments where I was again scratching my head and I was thinking to myself, hmm, possibly, right? Looking for, not looking for confirmation bias, not being, you know, snow-blind by my, you know, being married to a Euro dollar short because you can't be right. You shouldn't be. So you have to consider all, you know, all of the fundamentals, all of the narratives, etc. that are going on. But let's just go through it. It's not going to take too long. I just want to, you know, just demonstrate the point. Yeah. And the points and the conversations. So I said, I like it. Well, well done. Just a case of deciding whether you want to buy the Euro and I did the thinking face because I'm just, you know, I can't tell you not to buy the Euro, right? I could just, but, you know, for me, it's not something that I did. Right. So it's fundamentally why are you buying the Euro, right? And why are you selling the New Zealand dollar in context? So I think I was asking someone that, why are you buying the Euro? Ken was talking about buying the Euro, I think, somewhere around their potential CPR. And I said to somebody, I can't base my buying decisions on technicals, although there might be a pullback proper taking. For me, that's not enough of a reason to switch to buying euros. Right. Again, everything I'm saying today, I was saying exactly the same thing back then. It's not, you can't be technically driven. Right. So as long as the US dollar fundamentals continue to come out positive, then that supports dollar buying Euro, Europe is lagging. And this was in March. Yeah. So Europe is lagging behind the dollar and the pound. So until they catch up, yeah, my bias is short at levels of supply. Cover. Right. So that might, you know, I said, my bias is short at levels of supply. Yeah. And just basically watch, you know, the trading videos to understand the shift in dollar fundamentals and sentiment feedback. So again, the videos are all there, just referring to them. They're all here. You want to, if you want to watch them. Yeah, just find the time, the date stamp, and you can watch the videos. So going back to, again, just certain comments, I said, I think once the euro has some good data, I'll probably look for a buyer, Euro buyer, but not against the dollar, as that is a harder trade. Maybe the Euro Swiss, Euro yen would be my preference. Right. So if you're going to buy the euro, yeah, after, you know, and looking at, you know, some positive data, if some positive data does come out, then it wouldn't be against the dollar because the dollar had, you know, strong data. Right. You want to trade it against something that is weaker or devaluing. Yeah. And that was in April, 2021. And then I think Saidi says price is made to put in back fair value or hunting liquidity. There's no positive news that's supporting current buyers of the euro. And there's there's there's certain there's certain times, right? So that's the the 19th of April. Right. So let's go to the 19th of April, 2021, which would be somewhere around here. Right. So you've got this large move around here. So around March, April, this is where we had moves that will go into the upside. In fact, I remember losing quite a few trades during this period. Trying to go short. But again, drawing traders in. Yeah. As prices were going higher. Right? What were what do you think that institutions were doing at the time? They were they understood that prices were probably going to end up somewhere down here in the next few months. So as prices were going higher, they were buying the dollar for cheaper. Yeah, that's all they were doing. Buying, buying, buying cheap, cheap, cheap, cheap, cheap cheap cheap. That move was totally against fundamentals, was it? Was it Lawrence? Was it against the fundamentals? Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, I'll get what you mean. Yes, it was. That move was, but and you're totally right. It was against fundamentals during the time. So you remember this. And I remember, because I was going short here and I think I lost maybe about four trades, I think, something like that. I made a little bit as well along the way. You know what I mean? Some break-even trades and some small wins as well. But I remember losing, I think that's maybe about three or four in a row or something like that up here. But when you say it was going against fundamentals in terms of when you look at what the range was and in terms of when we talk about range, we talk about an auction, right? This is where I started saying, yeah, in January, yeah, that I want to be a buyer of the dollar, meaning that I want to go short, yeah? And that I want to just basically look at supply zones to go short, yeah? So between a bargain area and an expensive area for the dollar, yeah? The institutions and 50% is fair value, yeah, of that. The institutions, remember they don't trade like retail. Retail will go down into the low time frames and place their stop losses at 10 pips stop losses and then wonder why they keep getting stopped out and saying that fundamentals don't work. We know, or you should know by now that you've got iceberg orders. The smart money, the big money accumulate over time, yeah? This is what they do, they accumulate over time, yeah? They want to buy the dollar for cheaper, right? Because all of the liquidity is to the upside and it draws in and who's buying, you know, who's pressing buy following trends and the smart money are literally taking the other side of that, right? They're taking the sell side of that because they understand they're looking three months ahead, six months ahead and they know that prices are gonna are likely to be down here. But the point being is that even though price was going higher, right, I didn't switch my bias. I didn't say, oh, well, you know what? I should have started to go long on the euro. No, no, no, because that's not where prices are likely to go. So again, just following the thread, continue to follow the thread, where are we? So just the word of caution, right? So this was basically because I know at the time I know there were people that were looking at price in the short term over the weeks and those few weeks and maybe a month or so and I get it, right? Because when you're in it, when you've had three or four weeks of the euro going higher and higher, yeah, Leon is telling you, you know what? He's short on the euro. It's like, well, what's Leon talking about? Price is going higher. What does he know? I mean, he's been wrong for four weeks, five weeks. Well, again, we look at, we tend to look at things over a few months at least. So the point being is that I just said here that just the word of caution on buying the euro, the expectation of the euro growth is strong, but the data has to support the narrative. That was the caution. Now, if the data supported the narrative, I would have maybe switched my bias to go long, right? On the euro, yeah? So at the moment, it's really about timing the possible good news will come. As we get closer to GDP first quarter data, right? Release, look at the forecast on trading economics for a factor, et cetera. If the forecast is positive growth and price is falling, then it may be the banks accumulating by positions while they liquidity hunt. But the point being is that I hadn't changed my bias, yeah? To buy the euros, although I was open to the idea if the data supported the narrative. And at the time, of course, the data did not support the narrative, yeah? This is just more of a quote. And then we were talking about, well, about the sentiment. You still keep buying euros. I think you must have been referring to maybe Ken. That's pretty around the time that you're buying. Sam said that basically he said, against the end, pretty buying euro against the end, yes, but would not be buying euro against commodity currencies or the dollar, right? And jar bread, I think backs that up. Someone told me a fundamental reason to buy the euro against the dollar, please. So again, it's like, why would you be buying euro against the dollar? This is, you know, 24th to 7th. So this by that time, prices were, you know, down here. Why are you buying 24th? Sorry, this has been July 24th, so this would have been here. Why are you buying the euros against the dollar? We all pretty much knew from a probabilistic perspective that prices were gonna go to the downside, right? Which they eventually did over, you know, the next month or two or three. So again, this is not, you know, me changing my bias every time price goes against me, you know, whether it's 100, 200, 300 pips. Samaita was talking about, we're doing that book with a lot of prices to go higher before it starts selling technically. We were in a cheap area. So that was probably September, which is why city was tactically buying the euro, yeah. And basically, tactically means in the short term, you know, they were buying the euro, but, you know, medium to long-term, I think their forecast were to the downside. And again, just Mr. Diligent was talking about buying the euro against the Swiss or the yen, right? That was nice setup on the euro, Swiss last week. Hi everyone, today's been cool talking about I was talking about CAD buy, Bank of England. And again, I mentioned here, euro woes, right? So it wasn't, I wasn't saying, you know, to, I was just basically, you know, explaining that the euro still has woes, right? By the end of the year, this is November. And then until obviously the end of 2021, I say this for me, it's hard to tell because of the time of the year. I say to me, if you said report, euro typically strengthened seasonally in December at the moment, I think it's more dollar profit taking. Yeah, a pullback to short the euro buy the dollar at better price. So that's what I was thinking. So obviously, again, around December, prices probably were pulling back, yeah. So let's go to December, right? And indeed, this is probably what was happening, right? So December, you saw a bit of, again, another option, right? Between buyers and sellers. And then just a pullback to buy the dollar, right? So you've got to remember that massive, that quite big stop hunt there, which turned out to be another buying opportunity, a nice CPR right there. Yeah, and the prices continue to fall further. Yeah, so you're seeing this play out over the space of the year. These times here, I had not changed my bias, right? Had not changed my bias at all. Then just one more page to go. And let me just scroll down a bit. Yeah, so it's not too long. So I'll scroll up a little bit. I think it's a conversation between Ken and Jarbred. I think Jarbred said something about, yeah, so for me to stop buying a euro, I'd have to be confident that this is going to be the way the West wants, and which is long-term includes a message by China, okay, Taiwan he mentioned. Right, so I said, I will start to be a buyer of the euro. So this was in April this year, right? So again, this is just confirming that I haven't been a buyer of the euro, right? But I will start to be a buyer of the euro once the data starts to show a recovery. The ECB are in a very difficult position at the moment because their economy hasn't even started to show any sustainable growth with high inflation, all they can do is try to talk up the euro. So this is when they were on the interest rate hiking cycle when they were basically jaw-boning the euro to try and get it to appreciate, right? And that's basically to try and convince everyone that they are taking policy measures to strengthen the euro because a weak euro pushes up inflation and they were having inflation problems just like everyone else, but it was being, I guess, exacerbated by the fact of a weaker euro too. So, but looking at the data, yeah, and what the first quarter is likely to show, right? The effect of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the economy, I think it'll take at least another couple of months before I look to buy the euro. And again, that's not set in stone, right? It depends on the data and the narrative. So that was in April, so a couple months, a few months took us into probably June, and you reevaluate, right? Was reevaluating whether I wanted to buy the euro, which you guys know, no, I didn't, right? So of course there could be an agreement between Russia and Ukraine at any minute so that would also be the trigger to buy the euro. So obviously we were in the midst of the Ukraine Russia conflict. So here's a comment that I said, I think it might have been, don't know who was replying to, but it says it's very tempting to buy the euro, right? Based on the perceived undervalued narrative, but I just can't bring myself to do it unless there is data support in the narrative, right? So again, I couldn't justify the reversal, right? I couldn't see a total reversal in buying the euro, yeah? I have to see the data support and narrative or at least a change in sentiment based on the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. So that would have been something that would have been, and again, we all know that that is still going on, right? And then I said, hi, everyone. At the moment, you're seeing an effort from the ECB to talk up the euro by signaling to this is still April, signaling that they may hike rates in July, yeah? So be mindful that although that this is possible, it will be dependent upon how well the economy is doing and also how long the war is going on for. In the short term, my best guess is that the market start to buy the euro, right? So buy the rumor, but always remember that the data has to support the narrative. Therefore, before I start to buy the euro again, just considering buying the euro, of course, I'm not being totally biased against not buying it, but I'm being very cautious. I'll need to see proof that the economy can support the increase in rate hikes. Otherwise, rate hikes will likely have a negative effect on the economy before it's had a chance to recover. First quarter GDP announcement is on the 29th of April. So that would be the trigger to buy the euro or continue to sell, yeah? So that was pretty much what we were looking for. Again, we can go to a price chart there. So the 21st of April, this year, 21st of April, 21st of April. So April was here, did get a bit of a pullback. I'll just delete that, all right? So from April 21st, well, actually, no, we didn't, all right? So we continued to head down, I think. And I was just saying that probably you might stop to get some sort of pullback as a narrative. But again, nothing changed, right? We didn't see really any positive data out of Europe or anything, and prices still kept going lower, right? Still kept going lower. So you're seeing, you know, over time, what's that one there, right? Over time, me not changed my bias to buy the euro, right? So I said in my opinion, this was in mid-May, so in my opinion, the euro strength is temporary. Yes, there may be hiking rates, but the key is their GDP number, second quarter there, it would be very interesting. But until then, it seems as though the market is buying euros and pricing in the value based on future hikes. So again, that was from mid-May. So mid-May, again, you saw prices pull back, right? And again, overall, I ended up being right because prices pulled back to a cheaper area where you could short the euro, right? It went from pretty much 107s down to, you know, beyond parity. So again, this is a probability game, and I'm not saying that I'm right all the time or anything like that, right? Nothing, I'm not trying to imply these things because this is just a probabilistic nature of things working out, yeah? I could have been wrong. But again, going back to my original point is just there has to be, the data has to support the narrative for me to really consider a reversal, yeah? And at no point, and at some point, there was obviously a fork in the road where you had to kind of wait for the data to support the narrative and it hasn't. So for me, there is just examples, examples after examples after examples and of me switching my bias or me not switching my bias and continuing to remain short over the past year and a half, right? You've just seen it and you've seen the trend. And this is really the power of maintaining a fundamental bias, yeah? And understanding when to switch your bias and when not to switch your bias, yeah? And this is how powerful it can be. Not saying that you're gonna catch every move, I'm not saying you're gonna win every trade. But this is, you've just seen a year and a half of quick short fire analysis, if you're paying attention, of course, if you were here or you're not here, many of you might not have been here obviously during that time, but for the guys that are still here and trading with me, you know, you've been here and you've seen the journey, right? Ken, right, Lawrence? I think Igor's been here for a while, Marianne, yep. You know, you guys have seen the analysis day in, day out, day in, day out, as to the reasons why. You know what I mean? I've been short and you've seen it play out. Not saying that we're gonna be right every single week, yeah? Not saying I'm gonna be right every single week. This is not like, oh, this year is gonna go higher this week or the, oh, the daughter's gonna go, you know, higher this week. It's very, it's very, you know, difficult to trade and know what price is gonna do week to week. Cause you could be right fundamentally, but prices for maybe a week or two or three could go higher. Right? Don't know. But we're looking at medium to long-term. And Ken says, wait, we're not buying. We're not buying at euros, yeah. So, I mean, again, as I say, there is an opportunity, yeah? And again, all I can do is say what I'm looking at. And if I do switch my bias to buying the euro, you all will be the first to know about it, yeah? You'll be the first to know about it. And again, it's not necessarily a trade call. And I would like anybody and everybody to challenge my thoughts and my thesis. Of course, this is not any kind of dictatorship or anything like that. We can agree to disagree, you know, it's not personal or anything like that. And but that's just to show you an illustration and I guess, you know, an example of, you know, reasons to change my bias and looking at, you know, divergences and the level of divergences, convergences, and also leading and lagging and taking all that into consideration when, and things that I talk about obviously in the course and, you know, throughout the mentoring. And that's what really I'm looking at when, you know, the reasons to change my bias.