 Okay, very good morning to everyone. Hope you're well. It's Wednesday the 11th of September 2019 live from the desk here Amplify trading in London I'm just having a quick recap firstly of this calendar because I think it really does start to encapsulate a Little bit of where we are this morning But also what to expect from the day ahead and then really what is gearing up for Thursday Which ultimately is one of the biggest days in in the calendar for this week So if you actually look at Wednesday Today you don't really have a great deal of information coming out overall. You've got the US PPI numbers There's absolutely nothing of significance really coming out in terms of eurozone or UK data And this is very much a wait-and-see for the big event, which is of course the ECB interest rate and Accompany press conference, which we'll get tomorrow. We'll go into that in the briefing much more detail On Thursday morning, but you've also got out of the US the lights of Well, let's just run through some of the highlights here. You've got some Chinese data overnight trade balance This was tentatively scheduled at the weekends or see whether that has been confirmed eurozone industrial production will be quite important OPEC meeting commences in Abu Dhabi. This is not one of their semi annual ones in Vienna This is one of their more technical led meetings to make sure that they're adhering to compliance levels But of course quite important given the new change of leadership at the all ministry in Saudi Arabia And interested to see how their relationship Appears to be aligned or not with Russia Then you've got the ECB then you've got US CPI as well And obviously still a key metric as to ascertain then the type of aggressiveness of how dovish or not The Fed are gonna be next Wednesday on the on the 18th So I think that really kind of sums up the current state of play because just having a look across the charts at the Moment things are relatively quiet. There's not really a great deal of massive breaking news for me to go into two main subjects I'm gonna discuss the resignation of the National Security Advisor John Bolton in the US last night And then also Apple's earnings which came or not earnings Excuse me the the new conference that they held to unveil their latest suite of products and how that impacted their stock price and and how we close the Wall Street so overall European US dot futures. I mean US are basically flat the DAX is up a touch a little bit of resistance around The R1 on the daily pivots so far, which was also the overnight Asia-Pacific high Currency markets pretty quiet both major pairs are basically flat mimicking the dollar index And pretty similar in the US 10 year and gold. So a fairly flat open I would say it's kind of the description with a lack of real top level macro drivers at the moment as the market Perhaps waits for bigger signals to come from the next big central bank decision will get from Europe tomorrow But getting into a couple of headlines to get you up to speed if you weren't aware already Bringing up the crew chart firstly and looking at a dip in price action that we saw yesterday late afternoon We moved from in WTI crude around 58 75 80 all the way down to around 57 28 So decent over-dollar move and a pullback in oil You remember in the briefing yesterday We were talking about the continuation of the upward moves that we had seen in crude I mean just to put it into a little bit of context Since what would be what Friday we've rallied from below 55 all the way up to nearly 59. So a Pretty decent move and so a correction of sorts is probably warranted to just book some profits on those longs The catalyst certainly coming from the headline that Donald Trump the US president has ousted John Bolton after a dispute over negotiating with the Taliban now what Trump was after here was he wanted to invite Taliban officials into Camp David for negotiations about the A truce if you like to push forward in Afghanistan In a positive fashion, however, John Bolton was against this They had a big fallout and then apparently that has led now to the president firing Bolton or Bolton's point of view him resigning because his position was untenable at that point now Interesting thing here bit of background John Bolton is the third casualty of the National Security Advisor role If remember Michael Flynn lasted a couple of weeks before then it got found out that he had had Inappropriate dealings with the Russians in a buildup to the US presidential election in 2016 He has now pleaded guilty to withholding information to federal officials And he's currently going through that process in the courts at the moment He then had McMaster was the next one But again, he lasted about a year and now John Bolton has come and gone now The one thing about John Bolton to be aware of is that I think this Move from Trump to get rid of him was kind of inevitable if anything I think Trump a little bit of perhaps misjudgment Because he's been very difficult for Trump to get a lot of domestic wins I guess the the corporate tax cut was the one major one He's got under his belt, but he's failed on so many other internal policies The repeal of Obamacare the border wall The border wall weather from funding to the execution of the actual program The banning of the movement of certain Islamic states within the borders of North America and so on The one thing that he was what aiming to champion was some successes He could have had on the international on the foreign policy scene And obviously brokering things like the the original Korean peace deal was quite a meaningful one and so on but The problem that you had with John Bolton is that he is Pretty much an uber-hawk when it comes to foreign policy Here's a guy that was a big backer of the Iraq war He even went as far as saying that Cuba had WMDs before He is highly critical of North Korea He is so far down that that line that I think it was potentially just inevitable that this was going to happen because what Trump needs is someone who is gonna appear With a tough stance, but not follow through with the the complete and utter conviction that John Bolton would have had on these issues And hence then there's confrontation because Trump just wants a political win Not actually to go down these routes to the degree I think that that mr. Bolton would have would have wanted so I guess that the read between the lines here is that For one Trump said he's gonna nominate a replacement next week Quite a lot of journalists reports. I've been reading last night was suggesting that he's gonna find it pretty tough to fill that role Given he's already gone through three people in three years and all of the issues that are ongoing with the US at the moment on the foreign policy front Who's gonna want to put their hand up for that role? The other thing is he potentially is gonna have Probably another yes, man a kind of as depressive quoted a mini me to come in and just basically do The willing or the bidding of what the president wants and again who wants to really take that take that position It's gonna get filled. We'll see the deputy has stepped in in the interim period But yeah, pullback in oil prices Absolutely on the fast money move I mean if you were agile enough to get hold of some of that obviously the removal of one of the ardent hawks of foreign policy in the US Administration means that there's a lesser likelihood of confrontation with people like Iran Iraq just generally on the global front and so that needs to have some of that risk premium priced out of oil However, there's of course lots of other things that are driving oil prices at the moment From the trade war to the OPEC supply agreement, which we'll be looking for an update on tomorrow so a little bit pullback but not a Huge amount as I said a dollar 25 dollar 50 move and now we've just gravitated towards pivot on the daily level So I think that story is kind of done and dusted now I don't I wouldn't expect it to continue to move the price going forward for the rest of the session The other new story of course that came out last night Yesterday evening before the close and Apple shares were kind of it was warmly received In terms of the announcement where Apple unveiled a new suite of products Typically this being there they're regular where they come out with the new updated iPhone So we're now on the iPhone 11. They also released a new series 5 watch But the thing that people were talking about the most and what really underpins The rise in their share price was the pricing model the aggressiveness of The device and services pricing. So with the devices the iPhone 11 Starts at 699 bucks. That's down from the XR's 750 dollar price that we had last year They have also released a kind of suite of pro models Which are slightly more expensive the top end going for just over a thousand bucks But the main staple kind of flagship phone under that number 11 is Cheaper and I think that's a good learning lesson and an adaptation of the strategy from Apple Because I really do think that with the iPhone 10 being such a disappointment a lot of that was To a certain degree a lack of innovation in the phone in itself Also increased competition for an improvement in other models, particularly some of the Chinese firms But also the price point it was almost like we'd gone with hit and almost gone over That threshold that the consumer was willing to pay you for for an actual smartphone So this this seems like like it like a good move from them the market seemed to have agreed the iPhone 8 From 2017 now costs just 450 bucks. That's had another hundred and fifty dollar price cut And the other thing here of course is about the diversification of their revenue streams as we know if we cycle through a couple of these graphics This is a look at their market share over the period Of the last five years and as you can see their market share tends to kind of spike whenever they unveiled a new series of the iPhone and then it falls off Of course and you can see we've come back down to the lowest point that we've been in many years at the moment And that's because as I said their market shares being whittled down by continuous improvements of their rivals I actually think from a technology point of view. There's not actually a great deal that the iPhone does Better than the other phones, but that's not really why people Buy an iPhone people buy an iPhone typically because of the only the operating System and its simplicity, but also because it's viewed as a premium product So what's quite interesting here is that by offering these more now low-cost competitive models Are now Apple looking to gobble up some of that market or is this just purely to try and Maintain some of its market share The other thing of course this this graphic is quite interesting This is because Apple last night Tim Cook unveiled a $4.99 monthly cost of Apple's upcoming TV plus video streaming service now that does undercut the likes of Netflix of Disney as Amazon Prime and so this as well is being seen as quite a strong move Obviously Apple being more new to the space but coming in with some real firepower Potentially with the amount of capital they could throw at this service and they definitely in this quest to diversify away from that Singularity from focus on the phone in terms of a revenue generator This will be key for that model into pushing into the service sector and as you can see here This is looking in the white line is Netflix Daily percentage change on the session and they fell over 3% in yesterday's session Disney were down over 2% and remember Apple shares were moving the opposite direction as this was coming out So looking to really spice things up in that live streaming And TV subscription model space So yeah, that was that was Apple has that translated into much for the overall charts and sentiment not really I would say comparative to years gone by Their products are hardly setting the world on fire these days. They haven't done for a number of years But again, I think what's very interesting here is that really Apple are shaking things up with their pricing strategy Which I think is the beginning of Potentially something will be continued out of necessity not out of choice If anything over the long term, but should be a benefit to the firm overall Final thing from a new perspective to talk about is we had the API all inventories last night This of course is the prelude to the the DOE numbers will get this afternoon. And as you can see here We had a very large drawdown Way larger than expected in the headline crude figure drawdown of seven and a quarter million Expectations were excuse me for a drawdown of just 2.8 million So again when we talk about the price of oil We had that pullback on the the resignation of John Bolton But then we've had a recovery and you can see where the recovery came So if there was kind of two phases to this move led by the fundamental Catalysts the downside move on the on the John Bolton news and then the rally came which was really this move here Where we've now gone into this range bound price action which came after the Numbers last night from the API Cushing was a drawer of 1.4 million a little bit deeper than expected helping that narrative gasoline likewise was a drawer of four and a half million the largest drawdown We've had since April of this year and distillates was a bill of 600,000 So definitely on the balance more bullish support for crude prices as mentioned with the calendar Finally, it's very quiet this morning. There's not really a great deal going on Certainly out of UK and Europe. There's absolutely nothing happening Later on in the afternoon you get the PPI is as the kind of lead up into the US CPI which we'll get tomorrow All infantry data at 330 And that's about it. So unless you're training fixed income futures where you've got the 10-year auction Which will be then followed by the 30 year From the US having had the three-year note auction yesterday Otherwise, that's it for the moment. Okay, let me hand you over to Sam. I wish you a good day ahead I'll let him go over some of the setups that he's looking at from a technical perspective. Thanks very much All right guys there. Good morning. We have a quick look over some of the the currency pairs to start off with bringing in the pound to to the picture here and Seven a look let's put this on a 60 minute and and having a start with the trend line from the the low that we had of course on the Third of September that multi-year low. Let's bring this Seeing and just having a look at this this trend line that has broken Early hours this morning. You know, she's got those as free real tests the third The ninth and the tenth so the break of that and and also you can just see this morning We put this on to 15 minutes. Just how well it's been respected on the retest of that level So we we already know that people are looking at this this trend line So if we were to push to the upside obviously keep an eye on that really starting on the the third of September Coming through their last few sessions, you know, despite that that trend line break have been relatively range bound If we just put a rectangle in in that price action from the from the high of the ninth That's also the low yesterday. Yeah, you can see that's what marking up R1 and just below the S1 from today's session So worth having that on but I think that the main Point here to make is that that trend line really? Respected quite well just below where we're trading obviously a key support area from Since really midday yesterday, you can see we've already had one two three perhaps looking for that fourth test of that around 123 42 in the future so that could be an area where if that was to break we get that drift lower If it's to hold we might get another test of that trend line, which has been you know knocking once twice three times already To see what happens again would be quite interesting So those would be the level certainly shorter term I'd be focusing on for the pound euro if I just put this back on to 60-minute you can just see how and just make it a bit smaller You can see we're really getting squeezed here and the euro over the last couple of days that Spike we had on the fifth to the upside and then from the ninth you can see just how well This has been squeezed from both directions. We're actually literally just Testing that lower part now It's a worth keeping an eye on there Obviously as we were saying yesterday 24 hours ago how it's not too surprising to be contained within this ahead of the ECB Of course But worth keeping an eye on what happens really now Actually a dollar just trying to break out its its range of the the last few hours and Obviously keep an eye on what happens here if it closes the half hour below 830 might get a further push down But you can already see a couple of times it's attempted to break through it with not much luck But you can see here euro getting squeezed really from both directions and ahead of the ECB No harm in sort of staying out of that unless we were to get a big push Big push was the dollar Interesting I guess here and I'm going to take the the pivots off I'm obviously helped by the fact the China US situation has got better and I Think there could be a decent short Coming here for the Aussie the high that we had yesterday Not too far away from what has been a pretty key level in previous trade if we just mark up these lows here from the 21st of June and the 9th 10th of July before we had that break down to the back end Just before August. I would be interested to see what happens around there as well. So 69 21 on the on the futures Yeah, we're still 50 ticks away But that would be certainly an area. I'd be quite interested in to look for at medium term Short we did spike higher yesterday And then just found a bit of resistance. You have another area of interest. I guess at 6892 But Aussie dollars certainly won my radar to look for A move to the downside again after being on such a strong run the yen moving over just to wrap up the the currencies you can see here the No, that's the low that we made yesterday You've got another key area just below there that you'd be aware of and then also these these highs from the 28th 30th before we broke through on the 1st of August and then even looking I put these the pivots back on For today you can just see what's happened each time we kind of break through and a low We come back retest and again we made this low here. We come back. We retest We then broke through this low and we haven't quite come back. I guess to properly retest it like these Previous goes that doing so so we're keeping a watch on what happens around that area Just below the pivot today Well, basically what was the low you want to be looking at the the low of yesterday morning Asian session, so I'd had that marked up. That's the way this this pair has been moving Looks to act as a pretty good resistance into the afternoon session As well S&P yesterday post-cash open. We we got a brief Move lower before the recovery into the back end of the session and here looking again The 240 you can see unless we really get a retest of that 2950 area It seems a bit no man's land between this and and 3000 which you can see obviously been the round number But also an area we broke down on the the last couple of days of July So it'd be interesting what of course happens on a retest survivor 3000 or 2945 2950 back the moment it seems just a bit choppy bit range bound in those areas You can see s2 providing quite good support and obviously helps by apple You know into the close that market did drift higher for me personally I'll be you know waiting to see what happens for a bigger move around 3000 and 2945 just maybe more intraday You can see we're just getting a test of the the third what third test of this trend line from yesterday's load So from an intraday perspective sure, it's worth keeping an iron and today's our one matching up with the the higher the month As well, so you've got a couple of obviously key points to have marked up more intraday But the the main move I would expect 2945 or 3000 Ignite things gold 1500 trading at the moment just a touch below a couple of cent obviously after its big move has Come down a fair bit the high on the futures up at 1566 Haven't quite made that spike lower that we had on the third team So that's an area to to keep an eye on this this drift lower You can see as well probably similar to that S&P and the trend line from those lows We're just testing it now. Of course you want to see what happens here on Where we get confirmed the third test or not, but certainly the way gold can move just like it did the Previous a couple of previous sessions ago on the break of those trends Worth keeping an eye on what happens around that area I think for gold and certainly still there's better markets to focus on for now It does seem pretty, you know, it's just consolidating after that move lower and relatively choppy I'll be you know, waiting for these little patterns to take place and you can see again last night This is more eight o'clock help by obviously stocks going higher But this is when you get those real nice moves clean moves on the brakes of these patterns And that would be probably how I'd be looking to to trade gold later on oil Do we coming out later API? You can see a decent enough move towards that pivot Which is acted as pretty strong resistance and 58 bucks, which has been a key level over the last well, I guess you could say since Time we talking here 10 30 so not far off 24 hours That's a key level as you just be a bit careful above the pivot as you do have a breakdown area 8 cent above So more of a zone 50 and where the pivot to 58 0 8 and then to the downside you could argue This little range could be expected to hold in the morning 30 cent from 95 to 57 65 Daily chart for oil you can see, you know, we're talking yesterday how it's kind of broken out of that Trend nine from those highs. Let me just put the trend on bring this in So we got that confirmed right you didn't quite get the retest yesterday But even though it was slightly choppy on the 5th of September still something I would have marked up as well We did yesterday as well, of course get a decent enough test on that 31st of July high so yes the Fundamental reason oil came down was to do with Bolton But also really strong technical resistance up at that 31st of July and we're perhaps now Just waiting to see what happens between those two levels retested the trend line and up in that 31st high as well Any questions obviously, please do let us know the Dax is trading on the high at the moment So we're keeping an eye on the euro attempting to break out of that bottom trend line And oil coming down a touch from what has been a key resistance For the last part of the session any questions, please do let us know, but I hope you'll have a Good trading day