 Hello and welcome to this pre-record of the Monday market webinar on Monday the 26th of January. First and foremost get the formalities out of the way and the disclaimer. And then we can actually get started at looking at the markets and hopefully what to expect from the markets this week. Well first and foremost obviously the item that's front and centre is the Greek collections. And they've been dominating an awful lot of column inches over the past week or so. Largely because of the election of Alexis Tsipras and Sarita as the new government of the austerity affected country. European markets fairly relaxed about it at the moment. Even though this Greek stock market has dropped quite sharply and Greek bond yields are starting to push higher again. The 10-year bond yield is around about 90% at the moment. So there is a little bit of concern on the margins that Sarita is currently on a collision course with the EU. The fact that they've teamed up with the independent Greeks to form a government I think really reinforces the fact that they're more interested in what unites them than what divides them. Because the independent Greeks are very right-wing, Sarita is very left-wing. So they don't really have an awful lot of common ground yet they've chosen to form a government. So markets have been fairly relaxed about it. The Euro has made a new 12-year low but at the moment it's trying to find some element of support around about the 111 level. We did post a low of around about 110-98 but we do appear to be showing some signs of pulling back. So it would appear that for the time being markets are fairly relaxed about what's going on with respect to the events in Greece, even if Greek markets aren't as relaxed as the markets surrounding them. So let's certainly look at the German DAX, the Germany 30, and that's broken higher, quite significantly higher as it happens. And I think there's a good chance we could hit 11,000 on this particular market. And I think what's going to be turbocharging that along with other European markets over the course of the next few days and weeks is, last week's unexpected decision by the European Central Bank to launch a foreblown sovereign bomb buying programme. When I say unexpected, I mean unexpected in the context of a month ago, it still had significantly legal hurdles to overcome. Obviously it overcame them with the ruling of the European Court of Justice, not the ruling, but the advice given by the European Court of Justice that the OMT programme was by and large legal under certain circumstances. And I think in that context that's given the green light I think for equity markets to take advantage of the extra liquidity that will be pumped into the European economy over the course of the next 12 to 18 months to buy equities further. It's obviously had the expected effect on yields in the periphery. We've seen Spanish yields, Italian yields, French yields and German yields hit record lows. So once again you're getting what I would call this flight into equity markets on the back of this liquidity push. Now there are going to be concerns, significant concerns that the demands of the new Greek government put them into direct conflict with the EU. We've already had European politicians coming out this morning and saying that under no circumstances will there be any form of debt restructuring or debt forgiveness or anything like that and that while they would consider lengthening debt maturities or lowering interest rates, other than that Greece must stand by its obligations. So when you actually look at the two parties, their positions, their starting positions are quite divergent and I think that is going to be a significant problem going forward. Who is going to lose face? Now this isn't likely to be resolved overnight. Greece still has to the end of February to come to agreement with respect to its bailout. He's been given a bailout extension until then. So you're certainly going to see an awful lot of rhetoric from both sides, digging heels in and what have you. But I find it hard to imagine that Mr Sipras will be able to give too much ground even if he wanted to for fear of splitting his coalition because his coalition remains extremely fragile given the diverse range of views left and right wing on both sides. As I said earlier, what unites them is the fact that they're both opposed to austerity, they're both opposed to the bailouts and the terms imposed by the bailouts and the troika. So we'll certainly be very interested to see how all of this pans out. In the meantime, the market is understandably focused on that, but it's also focusing on the economic data that we've got coming up later this week. And in Europe particularly we've got the German IFO which came out much better than expected. Certainly there's an awful lot of unease I think in German circles and probably some other northern countries like Holland that the quantitative easing programme is unnecessary. Certainly if you look at German economic data there's certainly an argument for saying that it is. But as Mr Draghi said I think a couple of weeks ago, economic policy is not set for the purposes of one country. It's set for 19 and there in I think lies the problem and the contradiction of the Euro area. So we've got the German IFO that came in better than expected. Also later this week we've got German unemployment data and that's again expected to come in at record lows at 6.5%. German CPI is expected to post a negative number for the Euro Union number at minus 0.1. And I think that's largely why Mr Draghi was able to push through the quantitative easing programme in the way that it was. The decision wasn't unanimous. Expect further noise. Heard a Germany about the legality or otherwise of the QE programme. It doesn't start until March so that does seem to suggest that maybe between now and March we could get some unexpected political surprises and potential legal challenges to the ECB's decision that we saw last week. We conclude on Friday with unemployment data from Italy and again this again highlights the divergence between economic conditions throughout the Euro area. That's expected to come in at 13.5%. Another record high up from 13.4% in November and EU unemployment is expected to remain at 11.5%. Again quite high. CPI numbers for January. Again I think that's going to highlight the fact that the whole highlight the reasons behind the ECB's decision to pump more money into the economy. Year on year EU CPI is expected to come in negative to the tune of 0.5%. So you know looking at it all in all there's really no reason why European equity markets and particularly DAX can't actually test 11,000. That's not to say that we may not get a pullback. Certainly the breakout level that we saw earlier this month is around about the 10,100 area so we could get a dip back to there. But overall there's really nothing to stop it from going progressively higher. And I think really it's the same sort of scenario with respect to other European equity markets. We've got a significant breakout here on the Euro 50 and that consolidation breakout suggests that we could well see a much sharper move higher. Given the fact that we've not only taken out the trend line resistance from the September highs but we've also taken out the September highs as well. And if we measure this move here, this measured move here upwards that really takes us up to round about 3,600, 3,700 on the Euro stocks 50. Still way below the highs that we saw in 2007 and 2008 but nonetheless still a fair bit higher overall. And I think it's going to be a similar sort of story for Italian markets and Spanish markets as well. We've broken above the 200 day moving average in the Italian market. And while we hold above the 200 day moving average technically there's no reason why we shouldn't start to push on towards the September highs that we saw above 21,000. Simply because investors seem to think rightly or wrongly that all this extra cash has to go somewhere. The likelihood is it's going to go into equity markets. It's probably not going to make that much difference in terms of the economic growth picture in Europe. But certainly the continued decline in oil prices is probably going to help in that regard. Now oil prices are slightly higher today but at the moment they're largely trading in a range and I'll look at them in a minute after we've looked at the UK 100. Because the UK 100 is starting to look particularly interesting in terms of where we could go over the course of the next few days. We're once again approaching these range highs that I've talked about at great length over the course of the last few months. And we can see here in through the May highs, September highs, there's a big, big resistance around the 6,900 area. So it's certainly worth keeping an eye on those series of peaks around about 6,900. The all-time high just as a reminder is 6,950 and that really I think is the key, key level for a test on the 7,000 level. At the moment there's no reason to suppose we won't continue to trade in the range that we've been trading in for the past few months. But we certainly need to keep an eye on those peaks for any potential breakout move higher. So let's move on to currencies. It's been pretty much a one-way bet with Eurodollar over the course of the last few months. We're certainly, we're down 17% Eurodollar from the levels that we saw in June of July last year. And it's been akin to trying to catch a falling knife with respect to Eurodollar. But I think there is at some point there's going to be, there's going to be an occasion where we could well get caught out with a short squeeze. Now at the moment we do appear to be finding some buyers around about, around about the 111 area, 1.1.1. 1,1205, let's have a quick look at that because that's significant in the context of the overall move that we've seen higher in Eurodollar from the lows that we saw in 2000 at 82.30, not .8203, to the highs that we saw in 2008 at 160.20. That level is 1,1206. It's a 61.8 for an actually retracement level of the entire up move from those all-time lows to those all-time highs. So certainly 1,1205, 1,1206, what I'd like to see on that is a monthly close below 1,1205 to suggest that we're going to see a further move lower. Let's also look and zoom in on this chart as well. We've had 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 successive monthly declines in Eurodollar. Can we make it an eighth? I think it's a big ask in terms of where we go next. And I think there's also a presumption that the US is likely to raise rates sometime this year. Now I say a presumption because I think it could well be a mistaken presumption. I certainly don't think that when you're looking at the various inflation scenarios that are playing out in China and the inflation scenarios that are playing out in Europe and the UK that that inflation scenario won't also start to factor in to this week's FOMC rate decision, which is due on Wednesday evening at 7pm. The fact is markets are pricing in a US rate hike this year. I still maintain that that is probably, I think that's probably 50-50. I certainly don't think that it's likely. I'm still in the minority when it comes to that. But I certainly think as more and more US economic data comes out and the more it becomes apparent that the US Fed is going to start missing its inflation targets that we could well get a bit of a sell-off in the US dollar. And as a result, you could actually see a significant short squeeze and a lot of the dollar denominated currencies like euro dollar and the pound against the dollar. So it's certainly worth keeping an eye on this 1205 level, 112 level. I think for me what we need to see is a weekly or a monthly close below this to suggest that we're going to get a move to 105. We're certainly seeing some massive divergence on the daily charts with respect to that and certainly what I would hope to see is a move back through 113.5, back through 115. Let's draw a trend line on this so we can get some sort of indication as to where the levels could be. There we go. Keep an eye on that trend line there. It could give us a sharp indication of a significant short squeeze if we break above it. Certainly you can see it much better on the four-hour chart. Keep an eye on it. I certainly think there is some evidence that maybe the market is getting a little bit short. Looking at the client sentiment, we can pretty much tell our top clients are 96% short, which is 5% up from the same period on Friday, which does seem to suggest that the market is starting to get short just below 113, which is where we currently are at the moment, around about 112. So certainly keep an eye for a potential short squeeze there. The four-hour chart is starting to look as if it's about to tick higher. Maybe we could get a move higher there. Similar sort of story, I think, on the pound against the dollar as well. Keep an eye on the 150 level. We've tried to push below it. We haven't as yet been able to actually sustain a move below it. I think from a psychological level, it's a pretty important level. If we have traded below it, I think it's triggered a few stops. But overall, again, we've been in an overall downtrend for quite some time, but I certainly think there's potential for us to go for a little bit of a trip back towards the upside. First resistance level is really around last week's highs, around about 151.40. But we've also got pretty solid support between 148.10 and 148.30, and that was the double lows that we saw in 2013. And we can see that here. 2013, we found a couple of areas of significant support through there. So I think that's really a key level to keep an eye out for going forward. I certainly think that there's more risk of a short squeeze than there is for further losses at this point in time. But again, as with anything, it's about playing the percentages. Certainly looking at Euro-sterling, again, it's pretty much been a strong move lower over the course of the last few days. But again, we're seeing significant evidence that potentially there is certainly some interest to buy around about 74. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that. But we could certainly squeeze all the way back quite substantially to this trend line here from the highs that we saw at the end of last year. And we can see that the December high is there. We can probably go all the way back to around about 76, 75, 80. That's the last area of support before we broke lower. We've been down two cents since then, and that does suggest that maybe we could get a rather violent snapback if we got any data to warrant it. And certainly we're back around 75. So, again, worth keeping an eye on Euro-sterling. Let's look at Dolly Yen. Dolly Yen, again, we're getting a little bit of potential build up here. We're in a bit of a range. Solid support around about 115, 60. Resistance coming in around about 119, 119, 20. We're in a bit of a range. And I think at the moment that's just being a little bit sidelined by what's happening on the Euro. And the Euro crosses. But certainly worth keeping an eye on if we get towards this resistance line from the highs in December. It's certainly worth, again, having a look at if we get anywhere near the support from the lows that we saw in the middle of this month. Looking at the crosses from Euro Yen, broken down towards and through 134. And 134 was a huge level on the way down. We can see that from this weekly chart here, all the way through here. We've broken below it, but we haven't as yet been able to take out this series of lows through the end of 2013. So we've had a little bit of a look down around about the 131 level, but we haven't, again, been able to sustain and move through it. So again, it's certainly worth keeping an eye on any potential short squeezes here because of overextended short positions. Just get rid of that for the moment. Keep an eye on the chart forums for any updates. It's certainly worth keeping an eye on. Looking, again, at the client sentiment. Again, it's predominantly being played from the short side. So once again, it just goes to show that the market is very, very much one way. And it's certainly something that you do need to be aware of. The trend is your friend, but also be aware that we've had some very strong moves in the course of the past few days. And that's certainly shown by these candles here. We can see that. On Friday, we saw significantly big range, 135, 130 and one day. On Friday, we saw 137, 134 on Thursday. On Thursday, we've seen 133.5, 130. So Euro yen is moving in between three and five big figures in one day, which makes it very, very expensive if you're the wrong side of it. So let's have a quick look at gold. We've had a bit of a set off in gold despite the fact that the ECB has launched a large-scale quantitative easing program. And at the moment, it's not hard to see why. You can actually see the breakout here with the inverse head and shoulders reversal. Now the initial target for that move is around about 1,340. We've hit the 61.8 level and we've started to run into a little bit of selling pressure just above 1,300. As long as we stay above 1,275, then the uptrend remains intact. And even if we do drop below it, we're still above the 200-day moving average. So we could get a drift back to around about 1,275 or even as low as around about the mid-1250s. But overall, as long as we stay above those two key levels, then the breakout that we saw earlier this month, it appears likely to build on that and push higher. But we do need to bear in mind that we do have this trend line resistance coming in just above 1,300 from these peaks here in the middle of 2013. So certainly there is an area of natural resistance just above 1,300. Maybe we need to work out some of this overbought nature of this market to, again, once again, re-establish and then go higher and test the long-term minimum price objective around about 1,340. Moving quickly on to Brent Crude. We can see from this chart here that we're pretty much stuck in a bit of a range at the moment. It does appear to be fairly well supported around $47 a barrel. We can see that on this two-hour chart here over the past couple of weeks. We've traded pretty much between support $47. It's found quite a few sellers anywhere near or around $50, and that does appear to be the way of it at the moment. Certainly in the context of the Saudi supply story, nothing has changed with the death of the Saudi king. The policy is likely to remain pretty much the same. There's more supply than there is demand. Saudi is likely to still keep its foot in with respect to pumping out as much oil as it can to maintain its market share. It's already seeing some of the results, some positive results from its current policy. We've already heard Halliburton and Baker Hughes, both oil-filled services providers, announce they're cutting back on re-counts in the US, which suggests to me that the policy is starting to reap dividends, and we've already seen one US shell producer go bust in the past three or four weeks, WBH Energy. So I would suggest it's unlikely that the Saudis would suddenly change their policy when there's clear evidence that it's actually starting to work. We'll finish off with the Australian dollar because we've got Australian inflation data later this week, and we've had a significant breakout lower than the Australian dollar over the course of the last few days. And it's quite a key resistance or support level that we've broken through. If we look at the monthly chart, we can see the overall move from 60-10 lows to the highs at 111, and 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level currently comes in at around about around about 79.50, 79.75. So that's really a key level on the monthly chart. We've got the 200-month moving average. Again, a certain degree of support around there. But given the fact that we've broken below these series of key levels here, then the momentum does suggest we could well see further Aussie losses, and I think largely predicated on the basis that the RBA could well be forced to cut rates to react to the rate cuts that we're currently seeing come through from other central banks, namely the most recent one was the Bank of Canada. So the key resistance on Aussie dollar at the moment is 79.50, and then 80.35 on the top side. In the same way, Dollar Canada, again, we look at the break high that we've seen back above 124. Again, that looks a little bit over-extended over the course of the last few days and weeks. And that does seem to suggest again that any US change in rate expectations could actually see Dollar Canada slip back quite sharply. Okay, so that's pretty much it for this week. Once again, I'm sorry about the technical problems that have caused me to actually pre-record this and not actually host it live. But if you do have any questions that you want to direct my way or my colleague Jasper's way, you can find us on Twitter. Jasper's at Jay Lawler underscore CMC. Otherwise, we'd like to thank you very much for listening and we will speak to you all next week.