 But if there's going to be a meaningful, aggressive multi-day, maybe even a multi-week bounce, I think we have to test the bottom of the range here. And I know we're still... Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com. Weekend update show, hope everybody is doing well. Again, crazy week in the market once again. You know, the market hit a little bit of a history lesson. This is the longest decline now in the Nasdaq names, the longest decline since the dot com bubble. So for all you guys who ever wondered what the decline was on growth stocks, right? At that time the internet crazes was on its kind of a last leg on its infancy stages. This is it. I mean, this is the worst now decline since 2001. We're going on seven weeks and it doesn't look like, or at least doesn't feel like there's an end in sight. And the crazy thing about this is if you look at the market, right? If you look at the tape, we're about 30% off. The Nasdaq is about 30% off all time highs, which is crazy. That's a big, big number. And all this happened in less than six months, which is really eye-popping and pretty, pretty aggressive. But again, you could still make the argument. And I think that's the big key. I think you could still make the argument. And I think this is where all the perma bears were trying to voice their opinion. Majority stocks should have never been where they were. And again, it's a very fair assessment. It is after the fact, but it's a very fair assessment. So if you look at names, for example, like a UPST and you look at their all time highs, again, you could turn around and say, does it really deserve to be at 400, right? That a name like TDOC really, really deserves to be at 300, right? And Zoom, in granted, Zoom was one of the leaders in the stay at home movement. They definitely served a purpose. They still use the service. We use Zoom in the webinar. But there's Microsoft Teams, there's Cisco and all that, all the stuff. So the question is, was that market, was the market, the real market that we saw on this whole massive rise on growth names, or is it the true nature of the beast now? And the craziest part is, like I said, it's only month five, six going into it. And the one thing that, the one thing that, well, first of all, CNBC officially said, we briefly went into bear market territory in the S&P. Okay. And I think we have to redefine what the word bear market is. I think points on a chart and percentages off highs and lows shouldn't be the barometer of what a bear market is. It should be a sentiment of how stocks are affected by supply and demand. But that's a whole different story. And there's a lot of common denominators in this market. And it's, you know, you'll see it over and over again every single week. And a lot of new traders, because you knew it just because you don't have the screen time, you won't see it. And the market is trading in a very specific cycle. So if you look at the cues, right? If you look at the cues, for example, you'll notice the same thing, right? You have this linear line, this obviously still is a very, very important level. If you've been watching these broadcasts for the last several months, you understand why the 50-day moving average is so important. We keep on getting rejected. And that will completely break the cycle of selling. Again, every single time, at least in the first early stages, once we broke the 50-day, it tried to get above six, seven times. And it finally just lost momentum. And obviously, a lot of prices started to decline. But there's a lot of common trends. Number one, if you guys are actively trading this market, you'll notice that any single move, okay, that is interpreted as strength. And again, we really have to redefine what the word rally is, okay? If a stock goes down seven weeks in a row and the stock is up $3 in the next day, is that really deemed a rally anymore? I think we have to start using different words. But if you notice all the big green days, for the exception of the one real rally we had that started on March, excuse me, April the 15th, every single rally was either a Fed-driven or some random algorithm kicked in something that the whole day was literally put in on one candle, probably towards the end of the day. So if you look at the last, you know, meaningful rallies, even the one on Friday into the close, this is all on one bar. This is a Fed bar. This was a Fed bar. There's a lot of big Fed bars in these channels. But ultimately, what happens is all these rallies that are coming off one candle, the next day, they get engulfed. They literally get engulfed within the first two candles. Because if you look at the downward volume in all these days, they're about 90% of day drifting, drifting, drifting, drifting, and any short covering, whether it's manual or most likely program driven is going to come literally in the last half hour, 45 minutes, last 10 minutes of the day, and put the scoreboard that it did very, very well ultimately to give it back the next day. The one thing that I continue to reiterate, especially if this is your first go around in a bear market, any gap ups, right, any gap ups that you have in a bear market, that's where we are right now, okay, any gap ups are more chances 95% of the chance, probably even more than I'm just being a little bit more on the conservative side, if you can think 95% is conservative. But the majority of times, any time you see a gap up in the market in a bearish scenario, it's going to get stuffed because stocks, there's no room after a sell off, right, they're either going to get back into where they broke down or get back into 60 minutes supply. Either way, they're going to get rejected. That's why there's no such thing as a gap and go in a bear market. Gap and go scenario is only a bull market scenario. Also, buy the dip only works. So we've been talking about buy the dip only works in a bull market. Okay, stocks that are strong, that are opening down in lower rising 60 minute support, they're the ones that trap the shorts. There are no shorts that trap. They're short. That's the whole point. They're short in a trending market that's going lower. So there is no buy the dip. You can buy the dip theoretically for fishing around for a longer term entry. That's a whole different conversation for a longer term view, but there's no such thing as buy the dip in a bear market because again, if they go and they start breaking down big levels, you're going to start going lower. And that's exactly what we've seen on the cues in every single major level. You can see literally every single major level that put in a low, right, and rally back. It took out that low two, three days late and started a new cycle. And that's exactly what we're seeing over and over again. And even on Friday, for example, right, the Nasdaq was down two, three hundred points, the Dow was up 500. The reason why it bounced, you see, guys, you see this lower Bollinger Band? And this is why I love Bollinger Bands. I've been using them for years and years and years. It's a high probability, right? It's a high probability area, at least for that juncture that the market is going to hold and snob back. It's like a rubber band. Remember I've used this scenario plenty of times. So imagine the lower Bollinger Band, right, as a rubber band. So if you squeeze it out, right, if you stretch it out and snap your fingers, it's going to snap back. And that's exactly what this Bollinger Band is. You can see it, every single time it hits the Bollinger Band, at least it gives a little bit of a bounce, right? So for stocks to go lower, they need to get below the Bollinger Band. So that's why every single time you see a stock stop at the Bollinger Band, it needs the next day to take it out, right? And that's exactly what we're seeing. So obviously this 280 level on the cues going forward is going to be a big number. Because again, if you look at the weekly chart, right, if you look at the weekly scenario, I still believe if there's going to be any meaningful, aggressive bounce, I'm not talking about one day, maybe two days, but if there's going to be a meaningful, aggressive multi-day, maybe even a multi-week bounce, I think we have to test the bottom of the range here. And I know we're still, you know, 28 points away on the cues. But if for us to look at a longer term view, I think we have to at least to test the bottom of the range here. Again, all these intermediate channels that tested, right, and it seemed like, oh, okay, maybe this is a good area of support. They kept them going lower. So if this bull market, again, you have to still deem it an overall bull market because look at what we've done for the last seven years, right? So this, you know, 255, 260 level long term is going to be the area. Because if you notice here, right, this little bit of a history lesson, if you go back to January, February, March, if you go back to March, 2020, last time we tested, right? Last time we tested this, this brownish bluish line, right? Look what happened, right? It bounced, even here, right? Even here, this was August of 2015. You see that? It's the same, like brownish line, it bounced here as well, right? It bounced here as well. So at least, if nothing at all, forget about even the 260, if nothing at all, I think at least 270, right? Maybe at least 270, that'll be the third test of this brownish line, as you can see here, bounced three, two separate times. So at least, I think that at least the 270, let's not get extreme for the 255, 260, but at least I believe for us to get some sort of a hard landing, kind of a throw the baby out with the bathwater, I think we at least need to see this 270 level. If you look at the SPX, kind of from the same broader point of view, I think this 35, 60 levels, you can see it, you can see the dynamics as well, right guys? Last time, let me just show you again a couple of times, we tested this brown level, which is the rising support. The last time, let's see here, it was January 2016, we bounced. Here's another one, right? You see this brown blueish level? The next time we tested this bottom level was 2018, December 2018, what was this? This was, oh, this was, I was about to say, what was this? This was COVID, right? This was COVID, but once it reclaimed, right? It went through, but once it reclaimed, it started to rally. So I think we have to wait to at least 35, 63 to start looking at a hard landing. Again, one of those scenarios, throw the baby out with the bathwater and the rustle as well, the rustle as well. I think it needs to get down to the bottom of the range here. So, we have room to go down. And again, that's the most important part. Don't try and we talked about this numerous times. Don't try to pick a bottom or try to outsmart the market. Again, this is only month five, going on month six of a potential decline. Again, we've been, we've seen bear markets have lasted two, three years. So it'd be very, very, it'd be very, it'd be very prudent not to try to put in an area. Look, if you want to start investing long term and put some money worked, at least use technical areas. And we just kind of talked about both an S&P and a NASDAQ 100 to kind of test out, kind of test out your theory about a potential bounce. But don't get, don't get too, don't get too smart. Another thing that needs to, for this market, to, you know, to kind of stabilize, number one, the volatility has to go away. Again, there's a big difference between average to range and volatility. The stocks that we trade, the Apple, excuse me, the Teslas, the Apples, the Facebooks, the Amazons on the video Netflix, they have average to range every single day, big, big ranges. Volatility is down 300, up 200, down 400, down 200. That's, that's ridiculous. Nobody wants to trade in the volatile market. You can't hold the position. You'll get stopped out on both. You'll get wicked out every single time. So you don't want volatility. You want some sort of stabilization, whether it's down bias or up bias. We want some, we want some sort of organic market that, you know, once in a while, the market could be up, you know, 50 points, down 50 points, up 70 points, down 30 points. You don't need five, 600 points, one and a half, two percent moves every single day. That's scary. That's called anarchy. That's called a bearish scenario. That's called violence, right? The market wakes up and chooses violence. That's what it is. So you need the market to kind of stabilize that. The most important part is, you know, and I think a lot of you guys in the webinar kind of finally realized this, the days that you see are split up, right? For the market to have a premium day, like Friday was a very premium day. Everything went down. And again, whether you're trading alongside a short side, your premium is going to be somebody else's garbage. So again, not everybody fits that mold. But for in order to have a really good uniform day, okay, all these stocks need to trade the same way. So in other words, if you see Microsoft strong, but Facebook weak, Apple weak, but Tesla strong, Netflix strong, but in the video weak, Google strong, but Amazon weak, that's disconnection, right? That you're guessing, that's called the chop factor. That's called the pigeons, you know, pigeons are trying to get some sort of bread in the park when somebody throws some bread in the air. Those are the days you want to avoid, because what usually happens is those days are going to have contraction. A lot of contraction, you're going to see a lot of chop. That's why when you saw that sell off on Wednesday, you guys remember that sell off on Wednesday, 1200 points in the Dow, right? About, you know, about what, 5% on the Nasdaq. And then the next day, what happened, they try to dead cat bounce it, right? So we went green, red, green, red, green, red, ultimately, you know, went up, you know, 100 points and finally to lose 30 points. That's called the dead cat bounce. That's called an inside day. That's called a disconnect. Again, some stocks green, some stocks red. Those are the, and again, I don't care how experienced or not experienced you are, those are the days you kind of want to turn around and go, ah, yeah, I'm good. I'm good. I'm good. I'm good because again, they need to go in a tribe. And if you saw Friday, everything got destroyed at one time, right? There was nothing strong. There was nothing we get to the last hour of the market rally, what we talked about, you know, the fashion aggressive rally towards the end of the day and the market turned green so the scoreboard didn't look as bad. But you know, we, look, if you trade it on Friday, you kind of know. I mean, Tesla finally got absolutely manslaughter. We've been talking about that 680 level in nausea, right? Finally took out 680 when all the down to 633. You had a monster breakdown in Google, right, before it came back down. Amazon is, you know, I think this week, man, this thing starts losing 2100. It's going to start moving lower. But the one thing that you saw this week, that's really scary, right, from the consumer point of view, how aggressive retail was, right? So you saw huge misses this week, right? Coles, Target, right? Walmart, raw stores, right? And you know, on and on and on. And even if you look at Amazon the last several quarters, again, it's showing people are not spending money. And that's a big deal. So usually you'll have some sort of disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. But when you're seeing retailers that are traditionally, you know, the staples of Main Street America not doing well, well, then every single sector has to be put on notice. Again, it's one thing if a stock like, you know, Snow, for example, right, that goes down like Snow or, you know, Letter U, you know, these software cyber stocks, you know, it's not really part of your day-to-day life. But when, you know, when Bob Jones and his wife from, you know, to Pica, Kansas, don't stop going to Walmart because, you know, energy prices are going up and they're not shopping there anymore. That's, again, that's a big, big, big red flag for Main Street America. So I mean, going into this week, I think you're going to have the same things, right? Monday, because we rallied, you know, because we rallied into the clothes, if you look at a lot of charts going into the weekend, you'll see everything's in the middle of the ranges, right? So there's a, you know, there is a shot, we have a dead cat bounce on Monday, right? I think the key level, if you're a bull and a bear, you have to kind of watch this level here of 295, right? If you're a bull, you desperately need to reclaim 295 on the upside, on the cues. Obviously, if they trade there and to get rejected, that's a good area. You know, if you are a seller into supply, which again, this is kind of what the market is, if you are a seller at supply, you know, again, watch that 295 level on the cues in case there is a snapback on Monday, because if they get rejected off the 5, 10 day moving average, it's going to start rolling around. So for the bulls, you watch this 295 level on a close, if they could close above the 5 and 10 day moving average, you know, maybe this thing gets a couple of days worth of legs for the bears, obviously 295 rejection or the bottom of the range here of 280. And again, it seems like a lot, 15 points on one candle, but that's what volatility is. This is where the aggression is. That's my whole point. Volatility is not good. It's not good for anybody. You want average to range. You need orderly buying and selling. You don't need anarchy, right? You definitely don't need anarchy. So it's very, very important to understand that. For the SPX, when you look at the SPX this week again, you know, here's the same level. You know, you have that 3970 level is a big battleground. Whoever takes control of the 3970 level on the SPX is probably going to have some legs for the rest of the week. So if you are a seller in this market, the 3970 level is a battleground. If it gets rejected, you might want to entertain a short there. Obviously, the big macro level continues to be this 3810, which is the low for Friday. So, you know, you're going to have a scenario this week, pretty much like last week. You're going to have two pretty good premium sessions. And what that means is going with the trend, right? Going with the trend. You're going to have a lot of up, down, up, down, up, down. Again, if you're a professional trader or aspiring professional trader, you want to kind of avoid those days. I know that the market's open and somebody on social media is screaming, there's always something going on. Okay. But the point is, you know, you're not going to get emotional value, you know, for your stock to work, whether it's long or short, you either need greed or fear. Correct me if I'm wrong. There's no greed in this market because the market's selling, right? That's the whole point. It's selling. Nobody is chasing. If you are chasing, you take advantage of those people are chasing by selling into supply, if that's your thing, right? Selling into supply on any gap up. So, again, we are still in the bear market, 4% down for the Nasdaq this week. The Nasdaq was murdered on Friday, you know, before that rally. So, think about what it could have been. We are, again, these are the hard numbers, guys. We're almost 30% off all-time highs. And now we are in the seventh, seven-week losing streak, the longest since the dot-com bubble. Does that follow through? Does that continue the theme? Do we finally stabilize a little bit and start neglecting some bad news, some sell signal? We'll see. You know, we'll see. Again, we adapt, right? Again, if you Google the word trader versus investor, it's like a zebra versus an elephant. It's two different things, right? A trader trades both sides. You know, you look at the theme, you collect the data, and you hope that data confirms. An investor, well, you buy and hold and pretty much hope. And again, that's fine too, if that's your thing. Guys, have a blessed weekend. Just live your life, smile. Again, don't worry about the little things. If you are an investor in this market, again, we've been talking about hedging your portfolio for months and months and months, ever since that first week that we closed below the 50-day moving average, you've been watching this broadcast and you've properly hedged. You're a lot better off than a lot of people who are just sitting there and hoping and praying. If not, for the rest of you guys, have a great, great weekend. Enjoy the way that's going to heat wave here in the Northeast and in Jersey. We have like 95 degrees today. So, go enjoy your life, right? That's it, guys. Have a great weekend. God bless. I'll see you all on the field.