 We're below supply right now, on the weekly, on the queues. When you're below supply, it's not by the F and DIP. It's by the DIP and hope to God that's actually the lobe of the whole range. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, giving everybody welcome to a Monday edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing okay. So fair question. And, you know, I posted this question on Twitter, I believe. So was the market up or down today, right? So if you had, you know, if I put in 100 people in a room and I split them up, right? And I completely split them up and I completely introduced myself as a non-biased observer of what is happening in the market with no bias opinion, very, very objective. I probably would have to say 50 people would say the market was up today and 50 people would say the market is down today. And if you look at the indexes, and I've been saying this for years and years, that indexes are just a guide, okay? It's not going to define us. It's not going to define our day. It's not going to put extra zeros in our bank accounts. It means absolutely nothing. It's a roadmap. It is an area that we can have an opinion based on macro sentiment and then kind of, you know, use our process as a backstop to kind of get us from point A to point B. And today was a perfect example of what we've been seeing in the market now for quite a while, okay? Financials, again, we talked about interest rates ticking up, financials continue to be incredibly strong. And again, we'll get to Pivots in a second. Mastercard, very, very strong. Visa, very, very strong. You know, you look at all these names that have been kind of moving up the bank of America as the city banks and all. And the money has been constantly, like literally constantly sucked out of this tape anything technology, anything growth, anything that had a big move this year. And the cycle continues over and over and over again. And when you look at the scoreboard, you'll probably see one of the biggest disconnects you'll see in a very, very long time that's not an earnings driven day. So for example, I could see if like Apple on earnings was down like 25%. I could see the NASDAQ getting absolutely destroyed, right? I could see a three, 400 point move on the NASDAQ composite. The same way if Boeing was up like 20 points, 25 points, I can see the Dow being up three, 400 points. Cause again, at the end of the day, the Dow is only 30 stocks. It's not like a mass universe that's driving up the forces of good and evil. It's only 30 stocks. So what we saw today was definitely one of the biggest non-catalysts. Again, somebody could turn around to say, well, they did approve the whole stimulus. I mean, I think everybody, I think everybody kind of expected that. So I kind of want to kind of brush that off. But you saw the Dow at some point, it was up 600 points today, which was very, very impressive. And again, it did drive some names to the upside. Matter of fact, my first trade of the day was Tesla, right? Was Tesla out of a sneaky pivot to the upside, which turned out to be very, very well. And then obviously later, it crackled with everything else that gave another pivot to the downside. But taking the pivots aside, you really have to wonder what is going to happen next big picture? And the question is, does the market, right? And the word market is now is very, very subjective. If you ask me what the market did today, I'll say, well, the market got killed today. The Dow, excuse me, the NASDAQ was down nearly 400 points. You turn to somebody who's been trading and investing, especially in interest rate sensitive names, like the financials say, well, the market is great. The market is fantastic. Look what the banks are doing. Look what the credit card companies are doing. If we are having an improved economy, and again, that's a great discussion from another time, they're gonna have to raise rates. Who benefits from raising rates, obviously financials. So there's definitely two camps and there is a great conversation and a great format of discussing what the market did today. But if you do believe in the act of trader and you do believe in the day-to-day winning of the interval, winning of the day, identifying where the points of interest are, it's very, very tough to argue that we've been in a really ugly cell cycle for a very, very long time. And again, this is not the first day I woke up today and say, hey, by the way, the markets, you know, the technologies that names stink. They don't, they're terrible. But they've been going down for a very, very long time. I think a lot of people miss this whole, really, really big, ugly decline because there's been so much aggression on speculation. And it's, for example, so today, if you turn around and say, wow, I didn't even notice. I can't believe the market was even down. Look at GameStop did today and they're not wrong, right? Look, GameStop went nuts today, a name like EXPR and all these meme names, right? So, you know, all these meme names, EXPR and AMC, which AMC I kind of actually like for tomorrow, but actually confirms this channel here and actually got rejected a few times. Again, I'm not focusing on it tomorrow. I'm still very, very cell biased. But I think a lot of people miss to sell off in the overall tech space because there has been no fear and there has been areas of the market that people are still chasing and chasing very, very aggressively. But the big picture is kind of what we want to talk about tonight. And, you know, we saw a lot of really aggressive out of the money near term put buying today at some point in the morning. And again, this is when the market was still on the market, when the NASDAQ was still relatively holding up. Some names, you know, a little weak, but nothing crazy. We saw a big out of the money put buyers coming in on NVIDIA, on Apple, on Tesla, right? They were coming for the 550 weekly puts very, very aggressively. So far, so far and so on. And, you know, somebody turned to me and said, well, that has to be the ball. Oh, wait a minute. Again, we're talking about bottoms, which is absolutely ridiculous. Remember, the most aggressive market of all time was the internet craze. This is 1B, okay? Granted, this is definitely 1B. If you look at the NASDAQ 100 chart, right? If you look at the Qs and number one, Friday's low becomes a very, very big point of reference. Maybe even gets tested tomorrow. But number one, this is the five day moving average. You've been watching this broadcast for a very long time. You kind of know the importance of it. And we kind of know what we talked about on the weekend video that, quote, unquote, we should have gotten a dead cat bounce. Again, I don't look at the NASDAQ 100. You know, the NASDAQ composite down 300 points is a dead cat bounce. You know, again, it looks good on paper. Hey, great call Dan, the market's at 300. No, no, no, no, no. The market I trade was down a lot, okay? And the reason it was down a lot, it keeps on getting rejected over and over again at the five day moving average. Again, you could just look with your own eyes. Five day rejected, five day rejected, five day rejected, five day rejected, five day rejected, five day rejected, five day rejected. And today it got, again, got rejected on the five day moving average. And it's very, very important to understand guys. Even if you have a dead cat bounce day, which we had on Friday, you can make an argument. A lot of names got murdered throughout the week. So the market quote unquote was oversold. So I get it, right? There was a dead cat bounce. It's all gravy. But if the market can't sustain and reclaim those next levels, and we talked about those levels in nausea, then it doesn't become the bulls failed. It becomes a continuation of when bulls failed on top of here and started losing levels over and over and over again. And that first day that we closed below the 50 day moving average, that was the sell signal, right? That was the time that again, if you went and you are an investor in the markets and you believe in the long-term bull market perspective, then again, we're not talking to you. But we identified levels that you could have taken precaution. You could have taken action, whether it's hedging your portfolio, getting out of the market or being a little bit more proactive on levels that if they did confirm, there wasn't a surprise. And now it's kind of a little bit too late. So now you're really in the crosshairs of what's going on. So before somebody could turn around and say that was the bottom of the market, understand we're only been going down for three weeks. That's number one. And number two, if you look at the weekly trend line of what is going on here, you could see here now this is the first close behind this weekly trend line that started a long, long time ago. Okay, that's number one. So if we start confirming this candle here, which was Friday's low, look how much room you have, right? Yeah, there's about 20 points of downside. Again, there's no fear mongering here. I'm not a bear. And I keep on reiterating that every single video because a lot of people are sitting there and hoping that God, their portfolio bounces back. Their stocks and bonds back. And again, during the internet craze, during the dotcom bubble, you could hear it's the same conversation but 20 years ago, Cisco was at 150. There's no way it gets below 120. At 100, it's a gift. How can the stock be 50? Oh my God, you guys are giving away your shares. At $20, this is a gift from God. How can you not get long? Yada, yada, yada, Cisco goes down to $8, $9 during the middle of the mortgage crisis. So there is a lot of room down. And again, I completely understand the whole theory of buy the dip. And I reiterated the point during the weekend update that buy the dip theory, it's a great concept. And it works really, really well when you have a euphoric linear bull market. Is these a fact? Because strong stocks, when they come back into rising support, they're probably going to bounce. When stocks are below supply, and that's where we are right now. Look at it, you can see which arise. We're below supply right now on the weekly on the queues. When you're below supply, it's not buy the f and dip. It's buy the dip and hope to God, that's actually the low of the whole range. And hopes and prayers, it's just not a great way to manage your money. And again, you don't have to be a day-to-day participant in the market, but at least understand where we are right now. Again, if you believe that your eyeballs are always going to tell you the truth, we held the bottom of the range here, we bounced. We held the bottom of the range here, we bounced. This is the first close behind this whole rising wedge. So again, you could say, look, this guy Danza completed it and I am. So it's your choice to kind of decide what you want to do with your portfolio, what you want to do with your game plan. But number one, they're very limited amount of things you can buy when stocks are below supply. And the one thing that we've constantly, consistently talked about in a market that is under supply is you never know where your rally is going to stop because you have no safety net. There is no, you know, there is no area of defined risk you can take. You could take the previous day's low, but the previous day's low could be $15, $20 lower. If you're willing to take that risk, well then you're willing to take that risk. So it's very, very important to kind of understand where we are, is look, is it possible that last Friday's low gets tested, we hold and we go back higher? Everything is possible, everything's on the table. But as we say every single day, it's not fear mongering. It's not just the same way as the market's going up. We have no interest in shorting stocks. Now the market's going down. It's really, really tough to convince me to buy stocks for more than a rental for one big push into a supply zone. So going into tomorrow, I mean, look, I do have long setups that I do like. Maybe AMC wakes up, right? Maybe this AMC wakes up. Again, GameStop woke up. Maybe this AMC wakes up tomorrow, right? If it takes out this whole channel here, it's got rejected three times, maybe it rallies. Name like CHS, right? This little Chicos, right, of all things. If Chicos wakes up and starts confirming taste highs, maybe this thing goes back higher, right? Maybe it's one of these, quote unquote, cold stocks. Look at Macy's, right? There are some longs in this market that look pretty good. Macy's got above this whole range here. And if it starts confirming taste price action, maybe it goes higher as well. But then at the other side, I mean, look at Apple, right? Look at Apple, it broke down Friday's low, broke down this whole range. Look at Netflix, right? It's breaking down. It starts confirming this whole macro range. Look how much room it has. NVIDIA got destroyed again today, right? Destroyed. Tesla, there was a really good move to the upside today, and there was a really good move to the downside today. Again, if Tesla starts confirming this room, look how much room you have down. So there are areas that you can hide in this tape, both long and especially on short. But again, folks, again, you don't need to take my word for it. If things start to pull in, the NASDAQ starts pulling down the Dow, there will be no place to hide. And it's very, very important that you understand that history is real. This is exactly what happened to us during the dot-com bubble. We didn't believe the market could come in for more than a week. Ha ha, they're bull, everybody's crazy. Just buy the dip, buy the dip. That's all we knew. Buy the dip overnight, buy the dip overnight, and eventually that stopped and it was over and we got absolutely massacred with no, with zero explanation of how to manufacture runs, at least for the next three to five years. It was completely re, you know, what's the word I'm looking for? Resurrecting our careers, right? Resurrecting our careers and hoping for the best. So let's talk about today's pivots. Pretty aggressive stuff here, both long and short. Facebook, which was, again, this was kind of the first clue today. Facebook was the strongest stock on Friday, never rally today. This was definitely, definitely the move. I mean, at least the first move of the day was great. Tesla, 599, 600 needs to build. And I said cash flow only. I didn't think it was gonna stretch as much as it did. But here was the pivot here on Tesla, right? So here is the whole, you see this whole channel here? Here's the whole channel here, sneaky areas here, 598, 599. I actually bought it above here, which was this 606 range. I paid 609 and went straight into this channel here, right into supply, into the 620s. Really, really aggressive move. Congratulations to all you guys who took it. REI never made it here. Google, again, not a big move at all. It pivoted above 2107, went up about seven points and got destroyed with everything else. FISV, 12050, 121 needs to build, right? Here was FISV, right? So 121, right? So this whole 121, 120 and a half, 121, really nice move here. Almost went to 124, actually held up very, very well. LUMN, 14 needs to build. Here was LUMN, right? Really nice move here. Traded almost to the 1450, still looks higher. I don't know what the hell this thing does, but it definitely looks good for, continue for tomorrow. So beautiful move, absolutely beautiful move on Tesla to the upside. Q's, again, this was the big macro area and if the bulls fail, they fail that area. That's why the market got pulled. On the video, completely destroyed, 485 of the builds below can flush. Here was the video, just absolutely manslaughter, like really manslaughter. Closed literally at the lows of the day, 462. I still like it lower for tomorrow. The video got crushed. AUVI never got there. FISV take on the webs. Yeah, two financials did incredibly well today. MasterCard 369 needs to build to the upside. Here was MasterCard. Here's the 369 and traded, went to 382, big, big move there. Again, interest rates there. They're definitely benefiting from that. Visa, $270, $221 needs to build. Here was Visa, right, $221, went to $226. So big move in the financials. Some really good value today. It took a while to get there, but really good value. Again, I like AMC. If it starts building above this area, it can go. And then here's Tesla. 578 held three times in the 60 minute. Again, we don't care which side the pivots are going as long as they're going with measure potential. There's a little bit more support. 576, if it starts cracking and buyer came in for the 550 weekly puts, can really flush the 566 support. And here was Tesla just got just destroyed, right? Here's the 578, right? Here's the 578, right? 578, 578, 578, 578. It took out 578 when right to the 565, 566 area. And this thing looks lower for tomorrow. It starts confirming this 150 day moving average. Then it's gonna test last Friday's low. So, good stuff, good stuff. Again, you have to be really, really patient in the market, but there's really good areas that you can take advantage of. And what we've seen today, there are places that you can hide, but the overall sentiment continues to be on the sell side. Guys, stay safe, trust technical analysis. You don't need to trade every single day if you are uncomfortable. But the most important part is look at the market. Embrace the market you have, not the market you want or not the market that we had two weeks ago. Guys, God bless. I'll see you on the field tomorrow.