 Welcome to the channel. This is reliable Rudy today. We're going to talk about the US indexes and Also touch base a little bit on Bitcoin and that crypto aspect and how I think that they correlate together But first I'm not a licensed financial advisor. Everything in this video contains only my opinion and is for entertainment purposes only So I had someone asked me the other day. Why are you making all these videos on the Apple? And why and why is all of it saying that we could be potentially coming down to a 96-dollar gap? You know and I answered him with you know, everyone knows Apple majority of people have Apple products Apple is actually a solid Fundamentally are a solid financially sound company and was a good example for my reliable Rudy process But the last kicker was Apple is also in all of our major US indexes So in this case scenario right here, you can see the Dow Jones companies Apple is three point three three percent of the Dow Jones the 13th large holding now looking at the SMP It is the top holding in the S&P 500 at seven point two nine percent Now lastly looking at the NASDAQ it is the top holding in the NASDAQ at thirteen point one three percent So if I'm coming to Correlating evidence through my entire process that you know, I'm more attractive at the price of Apple in that 90 to 120 dollar range. What does that mean for these indexes? I do not know just because the price of Apple falls I do not know how that's going to correspond with these indexes, but it is definitely something to monitor in my opinion So Going to these charts I have these three major US indexes all on a chart and also bitcoins chart And we're going to look through each one of them now starting with the NASDAQ We are on a month chart now the first thing I see is this big W pattern I'm going to draw this out and say that it is possible This does not mean that this is going to happen, but I do see a left leg An extension building our neckline our right bottom, and we do get an extended right leg now With any type of look like this the first thing that comes to my mind is we got a back test the neckline Now that would bring our NASDAQ down to $2,800 do I think that the NASDAQ is going to come down to $2,800. I do not I'm not the ultimate bear of the US market But if it happened I would not be surprised cuz I'm sitting here looking at it and saying hey That's the best the back test of the neckline. It's possible. There has been crazier things that have happened But that being said we're going to take those lines off right now And we're going to do one last thing we're going to take our fifth tool from the top of the move to the bottom of The move and see what our full extension is on our NASDAQ now you can see We fight to get over top of our all-time high price, but ultimately we do push it now You see congestion at our first extension now on a month chart. It's hard to see this congestion at this second extension So I'm going to switch this to a day chart real quick and we're going to see how he acted with that now You can see when we act with that second extension. Oh, man That's hard to find that but this is our second extension line right here. We get rejected initially We get rejected again now. We're fighting now. Look at how we hold we hold right here We're fighting to push through this extension ultimately. We do push through this extension and Where do we end up going? We go to our very next extension point now look at this double top that we put right here Now as I mentioned as you're getting closer to this full extension If you put any type of look like this near a full extension watch out Just watch out because it is hard to get investors to buy into this right here Simple supply and demand more people buy than sell the price is gonna go up more people sell them by price is gonna go down Are more people wanting to buy or sell right here? Well, I mean we have the answer the NASDAQ fell 35% over to the lows of that 35% Now I'm not going to go too much more into that but you guys understand the point that I'm trying to get across Hopefully if you don't make sure you leave something in the comments and let me know but we're going to move on to the Dow Jones So I don't see that example like I see on the NASDAQ with a big W pattern But we are going to take this housing market drop in 2007 and 2008 We're going to take a fifth tool top of the move to the bottom of the move and see what type of extensions We're getting here So top of the move bottom of the move now you'd see same scenario right around that first extension and We are fighting to get through the second extension and We ultimately set that same type of structure on the NASDAQ that we do with the Dow Jones right here near our full extension So if I go to a day chart and look at this You can see look at this double top pattern that we put in right here. Boom lower high We fail to push that high again. We fail to push that high We're consistently setting lower highs right here Is that a coincidence that we're getting all of this price action near a full extension? We'll go back to a month chart real quick before we move on. Is there room for a final exhaustive push? I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball But it is definitely something that we could have monitored when we were up here at this price and the Dow Jones I didn't look at that but we're going to look at the percent drop that the Dow Jones fell Nineteen point two percent. Okay. Is that justified of a full extension? I don't know But it is definitely something to monitor Going forward now The last of the US indexes is the S&P 500 now same thing with the Dow I don't really see a nice W pattern back test that neckline opportunity here, but We're gonna do the same thing. We're gonna take that housing market crash and 07 08 And we're gonna take fib tool top of the move bottom the move and we're gonna see what our extension is on the S&P So I can see same thing Look at that Look at how hard we fight to get through this first extension right here And then when we finally do push it we just back test it real quick and then we're off to the races Same scenario getting rejected off of our second extension and we actually do have a significant sell-off right here This was our COVID crash in 20 in 2020 But ultimately we get we do get our full extension here now if you are holding on to the S&P near Over top of the full extension, you know, I clap I applaud you Is very bold strategy. I I would not recommend that Now our sell-off that we've had in the S&P Roughly 25% 24 and a half percent now is that is this the the is that a Justified fall for a fully extended stock, you know, I don't know like I said, I indexes move a little bit differently now I'm not the ultimate bear, but When all three of these US indexes Corresponded like this. I was sitting there telling myself. Hey, you know, there's gonna be some there could be some crazy times Coming ahead of us and what has transpired over the course of 2022 a lot of crazy shit has been going on Let's just put it that way So lastly before we wrap this video up, I know it we're getting a little bit long But I think it's really good information. We're going to go over Bitcoin real quick. I can see I already have drawn up a Left leg. This was the 2017 fall. We're on a day chart not a month chart We get our neckline built we get our second bottom and we get an extended right leg Now with any extended right leg, it is possible that we come in back test the neckline Okay, so what is this? We're going to take our our fall right here top of the move bottom of the move We're going to get rid of this these Our nice W pattern back test the neckline Real quick and we're going to take top of the move bottom of the move and we're going to look at this extensions so first and foremost Look at where we we see rejection at the all-time high price, but we shoot right through that We shoot right through our first extension. Look at how we back test the top of that extension Now we don't really get too much rejection off our second extension either but we do get a hard sell-off off of this next extension and Where do we hold support right on top of our first extension? And we do get another exhaustive push for that full extension. Now look at this double top that comes in right here Any type of structure looking like this at a full extension is no bueno. This is not a good look and Sure enough. I was up here saying the US indexes are all overextended Bitcoin's overextended it is possible that we see Bitcoin come back test the neckline at 13,000 and everyone was sitting there calling me crazy Like I get didn't matter if you were a holder or the ultimate bear of Bitcoin Those people were sitting there saying ah 13,000 on Bitcoin. You're crazy dude. That's never happening and sure enough We got to an all-time low price. Let's get rid of this Not an all-time low price, but our low price in this fall in Bitcoin came down to 17.7 $7,000 That's pretty damn close to my neckline now Is it possible that we come down trade down at that neckline? It is possible and I think I will be a buyer That is not telling you guys to buy into crypto at that neckline But if Bitcoin gets down to that neckline, I am going to be a trader or a buyer of crypto currencies It is not going to be a large position But I am definitely going to do a little bit of buying at that time for sure Now let's actually go into this drop because this is no slouch but drop compared the index is Bitcoin's price fell 74% so we're going to dive in a little bit more into this drop Now I can see we have a one two three four five wave structure followed by an ABC a One two three four five wave structure followed by an ABC Then we have let's see. Let's mark this out. We have a one two crack of support three four Five wave structure with the fifth wave being the same length as my first wave roughly Now we're going now we're getting the same thing So what I'm going to identify on my chart is this previous low if there is any type of rejection off of this previous low Right here. It is going to be very alarming That is going to be very alarming to me But we can see on the short term we do have a nice little uptrend building But is this uptrend going to get shut down at our previous low? You can see we're trading inside of this channel is this channel going to trade get rejected for one final leg down To the back test for a neckline. I do not know I don't have a crystal ball For all I know this could be the bottom for Bitcoin for all I know we drop even lower than the neckline at 13,000 I do not know but it is definitely something that I am monitoring and And you know it is crazy that the US indexes and Bitcoin all kind of reached that same extension at the same exact time And you know, I think it's really good stuff now inside all of these five wave structures It is possible that we have a initial one Two three Four now the fourth wave is back testing the bottom of wave one So this in this scenario, this is actually me saying a it's potential that we actually push over top of this previous low But and then we end up getting rejected right here now from my wave four We know that there's gonna be a wave five that comes in now What is the percent fall from top the move bottom of the move right here? Let's go find out This is roughly a 52% fall. So we're gonna take a potential top of wave four and we're going to Map out a 50% fall. Okay, 63% fall right here puts me down to the neckline. Now if I were to take that same fall 53% that puts me at pretty solid support right here as well. So definitely something to monitor there with Bitcoin If you guys enjoyed this video and want to see more videos like this, you know, I'm all for it I love using the Fib tool and these extensions to kind of See how the price action works in the supply and demand of the consumer goes hand-in-hand with it So I hope you guys enjoy this video and we will see you on the next one