 Good afternoon everybody. Thank you for coming here. It's an honor to have you around especially with this beautiful weather I was looking at the lake. So I found some of our people went over there Today is Kind of special presentation last year around this time in June I gave a similar presentation to to this and We receive a lot of feedback and most of the feedback was You you talked about geopolitical things. Could you please talk more about that next time? And the feedback that I've been getting the last 12 months is People want to know more about those geopolitical trends and how those geopolitical forces are affecting macroeconomic decisions policy making so This presentation today is going to be probably slightly different from what you normally see in the financial industry Normally as a macroeconomist I focus 80 percent of macroeconomic stuff this time I'm gonna reverse that. I'm gonna bring in a lot of the geopolitical Things that we are monitoring but nothing here is art Just for for a lot we monitor and gonna present here geopolitical stuff that unfortunately has an impact on Markets and will have an impact on markets in years to come Okay Let's start Gonna talk about First of a little introduction global macroeconomic trends geopolitical trends a special focus on the Middle East What I will show you there regarding the Middle East Probably most of you will have not seen beef before There is something going on in the Middle East that I think very few people here are aware of Strategies a fixed income strategy called yesterday in the evening asking me about Iraq for instance what is happening in Iraq and This what you see now in Iraq is just part of Where we're gonna talk about today in the Middle East There is other factors apart from macro and pure geopolitical there are joining this global convergence process and We will talk about those factors Yeah, there's some suggestions at the end I Also want to start saying something Which I think we should remember since we're gonna talk today about geopolitical things I was wondering This is not regular that you hear about your political things in the investment world or the financial world So I wanted to take the opportunity To to remind you that 70 years ago around in the month of June Quite a few things were happening. We had the landing in Normandy People say oh, yes, they're very nice victory in Europe But you know the landing in Normandy was necessary because this continent this continent Failed to do something when the beginnings were visible We became war weary war tired and we actually close an eye on aggression And this is my introduction today because something very similar is happening today The West is war weary and Powers are emerging to see how weary and tired we are they say all the Europeans Americans They just want peace and we're not looking after things the mere fact that we are not Being clear and that we are tolerant with the we're tolerating a lot of The aggressive foreign policy in emerging markets is something that is shaping now the global geopolitical agenda Yeah, let's start with that This is the introduction 70 years ago almost to the day some 15,000 paratroopers landed behind the German lines and I wrote exact numbers because we often hear yes, I'm 20,000 did it and yeah either has some casualties but you know I don't know how many of you have been to a Commemoration or anniversary of World War two when it ended Not in our generation, I think and it's good to to see every single number there because what we're gonna see in Europe and Middle East and Asia the next five to seven years five to seven years Will affect a lot of people and I believe many many soldiers will have to go to fight because we did not arrest the beginnings today the world is Very tolerant in the face of aggression. We have seen that recently in Ukraine and that will all come at a price later and Many people among you know Attrition ratio among paratroopers who probably has a guest among paratroopers attrition ratio The possibility of you being wounded or killed very high on that campaign 48 percent and They came to liberate Europe and I believe Europe is now exactly as war weary as it was before World War two passivity Passivity is something that I would say is the common denominator in the West Yeah From politics to military from religion and to science The status cool and the stability of the system is being challenged at the moment So it is not just people in the financial industry. They're going crazy I take time to meet politicians diplomats scientists Even people from the religious field and They are telling me that in their own fields people are as crazy as stressed and Panicky as we are in the financial industry. It is not just happening and the things are being challenged there Things are being challenged. So it is not just in the financial industry that we're seeing this I would like to say this what you see in the financial industry the last 10 15 years is merely reflecting That which is happening in society as a whole Is what we are seeing in our industry is just reflecting To a large extent that was a reflecting what is happening in the world and we're gonna see actually I cannot focus on too many things I'm not gonna focus too much on science I'll focus on some few areas that are very important for for the Middle East We don't have just enough time for for for more, but just a few democracies as we know are becoming very polarized more Difficult to be governed the new democracies are struggling. We see that Many you you thought Argentina was a democracy. You thought that Bolivia was a democracy Well, or Thailand We see also the United States access to disease is being challenged. We don't talk We don't hear anything about that in the news The United States no longer has full access to all the sea routes. They are vital for world commerce Turkey Now is enter a big deal with Russia a security deal with Iran But officially is a NATO member It is not the first time that Turkey is doing that. Turkey is so strong and powerful Nobody in NATO or the West dares to tell Turkey don't do that And it's not the only country just a small example of a country that is rising That says I can do whatever I want. I go after it and they're going after their right, you know, national interests China Brazil Turkey just to mention a few countries are supplying Iran for years now for more than 10 years Just apply Iran with all Iran needs officially Iran is under a UN embargo No Western nation dares to tell Brazil or Turkey or China. What are you doing there? This is a UN embargo I want you to start seeing What is very obvious on the political scene the new rising powers are not being checked by anybody They're rising unchecked and they're becoming more aggressive More and more aggressive Another area science. We all talk about global warming for more than 10 15 years More and more scientists are opposing global warming and saying we have global climate change not necessarily warming And they're actually saying many analysts and scientists are saying well all this climate change could also be a result of earth gravitation and magnetic field changes Only partly human And this is a huge battle now happening in science realm Go to the next realm religion Many of you probably now industry are not exposed to that topic But there is a dramatic movement in the world called the charismatic movement that is challenging all Established religions Catholicism Protestantism Hinduism Buddhism Islam are all being challenged by these Christian charismatic movement is an earthquake there They are all in panic and a state of maybe kind of crisis you would say Something is changing here. So there are elements in the world. There are challenges. They're changing that are going to affect Politics and financial markets very soon some of the slides I will just pass them on because I have them only in case some of you have questions and Feel free to ask me. I have some slides in between. There are more explanatory But I will just jump them in case nobody has a question because some slides are just for information in there So I will be I will be jumping some some slides if I see no faces tilting or people asking questions Here the global macroeconomic trends The rise of emerging markets, we know that Something's happening. It's being slowed down. There is a liquidity squeeze going on the last eight nine months in the emerging world and That is why Many of these emerging powers are now looking for trouble overseas or beyond their borders I would say this many emerging powers are now deflecting. They have a lot of domestic pressure They have a liquidity squeeze for eight nine months now. There is very serious and When you are It's feeling pressure and problems are home domestically as a government. You may want to deflect Well, we have a problem in a way with some of our neighbors or some other country. You do that You see Russia doing that with Ukraine You see Turkey doing that with the Middle East in Syria. You see that all over the place now China is also facing a liquidity squeeze. You see China becoming very active with this conflicts with the neighbors I would have a okay. It's a very good question I was wanting to skip that slide, but I will show you the slide where we can show the liquidity squeeze in emerging markets But Since we're here why not I will I will not skip it here This is aggregate. This is database is proprietary. It I aggregate here The broad monetary supply of all the leading the eight leading emerging markets, and this is the growth year over year You don't see this normally around because unfortunately most houses most banks don't care aggregating But look at them amazing growth that we've been having in money supply in this country 30% when they were doing well 30% and look at this. This is what I call this quiz Look at this. We come from 30% 36% to what? 2% liquidity This emerging markets need a lot of liquidity liquidity growth to keep going and When they are doing well, their liquidity is growing at at least 25% per annum And what we see now is a dramatic squeeze over these years And they have had to cut liquidity because their currencies have been under pressure So it's not that they want to do that It's the last thing they want to do put an end to their political careers and bring research into the home countries But when their whole system is unstable They have to start, you know, removing excess liquidity. This is the problem for emerging markets. I would say, yes This is a very good question You still would see you still would see China has an impact here But you will still see the dramatic slowdown in liquidity growth in emerging markets ex-China. It's dramatic It's just big The reason why we don't see it is because almost nobody is aggregating all leading emerging markets You look at China alone, Russia alone, India alone, and you look at in local currency But there is a quite serious squeeze in liquidity and that I meet a lot of investors that are not aware of the seriousness, the severity of the liquidity squeeze in these emerging markets And therefore when I tell them watch out for geopolitical problems, they don't take it seriously I spent a lot of time on the road in spring last year telling people watch out a lot of stuff is gonna come in emerging markets There is a liquidity squeeze coming. They told me. I don't know liquidity squeeze Let's keep on watching. Intra Asian trade is almost dead Intra Asian trade, although the economies are recovering, is almost dead. Very interesting and a concern And one reason for that is geopolitical tensions Geopolitical tensions in Asia are rising Beyond what we've seen in the last 20 years. Very bad And I believe they are beginning to affect intra Asian trade Middle East is ironing a revival. Why Iran? Iraq Syria and Turkey are getting closer together integrated economically. So there is a lot of hope for Middle East I want to talk more about that fragility. I don't want to talk much about that because I think we have a lot of experts talking recently about that You see something in blue nationalism military build-up. This is very important They're leading to a lower long-term growth Military build-up is very good for Factory output short-term. It's very good. He creates also very good monitor stock It's good for government income, but The more aggressive you become with your military build-up the less trust with your neighbors That reduced trust has an impact on long-term growth demographics Many of people many people know about that already. I think I will not talk much about it income inequality I mentioned it there, but I will not focus on it today social transformation is something that few Economists and bankers care about and this is why I put it in blue social transformation It's big is one of those big changes in the world in this decade And I think we are not aware of that enough We need to do a bit more work on that in the political polarization All over the world when you look at the elections are now 48 to 52 percent Somebody wins is 51 percent to 49 percent Left and right really left and right quite divided many countries now not just in emerging markets or the US are Becoming heavily polarized We have that we have a center of Christianity shifting also to Asia and the South It's a huge change here taking place Resources constrained a lot of people know that They reemerge in the United States The rise of sub-Saharan Africa very important This is why I put it in blue and this is why we have a big interest now in the superpowers in Africa these things are converging and It would be good enough if only these things were converging, but we're gonna go now into the The geopolitical side later. Yes. You have a question. I Will go into that because this is one of the big shifts. There is affecting Middle East policy and Yeah, I will I will do but I can say already the It's one of the big things that is affecting the Middle East There is on the one hand the Intra-Islamic war conflict. We're not aware of that. It's very severe We see that only in Syria, but it's happening everywhere Repression is horrible within countries Yeah, they what they are doing to one another is very bad. We just don't see it here. It's very very bad Basically, it's happening not just in Syria. It's seriously only because we're watching it and on the other hand But I can say a little bit about that as is your interest You see a lot of people in the Middle East who are tired of this fight tribal wars and They are now With the internet they're watching on the internet church in the West Millions of people in the Middle East are becoming Christians. It's a big crisis for the Ayatollahs and the religious leaders in that part of the world They are alarmed by that and they're they're doing something about it So Islam feels challenged We talked about that already This is also from our aggregated Database that we use These are the G7 aggregated you see GDP minus supply in industrial production and As a macro economies, I have to touch base on this because this is it's like a foundation for the presentation G7 38% of what output E8 I call E8 the 8 leading emerging markets 34% you see they're almost equally heavy You see here the liquidity squeeze and slowly nominal GDP coming off something interesting though military build-up is Strong very strong in the West and in emerging markets military industry is one of the few industries It has helped the world economy avoid a major recession It is a gigantic industry at the moment and you see that here that uptick here you see that also in the West When I look at the official numbers spending on defense and military, I smile. I Smile that nobody has questions about that But look at that the G7 are recovering and something very interesting very interesting you can see the liquidity line I think it's green, right? I'm gonna be the color blind is green Here people said it's gonna collapse because of tapering and I was telling people it would probably not G7 economies are recovering and Real economy can generate or induce its own money supply. It works even in China so even if the Fed is tapering I've been telling last year even if the Fed was tapering expect money supply in the G7 to grow This year and as you see is growing very nicely G7 recovery looks okay This here doesn't look good Positive science of stabilization In industrial production, but after this collapsing liquidity you can expect more decline and weakness in GDP For those who of you who have done data analysis or econometrics This might be interesting for you. We look at the G7 in eight, but also sets court We look we do a Z score of of the GDP growth rate and you can see that the G7 Is almost around zero So the growth Momentum or the thrust of growth in the G7 is just above zero. There is no cyclical pressure yet for inflation Look here are the E8 the emerging markets minus one standard deviation This is deflationary Emerging markets led by China are exporting deflation to us and Here Let's see how it develops But when you look at this Z score it tells you why bond yields are low at the moment Yes, please Yes, this is very interesting question that you that you're posing. We have to differentiate I mean the headlines industry focus on headline numbers Brazil India have a very high structural inflation has nothing to do with the set with the business cycle Brazil even if you have Minus supply graph of zero over two years. You will still have inflation The reason is geography and bottlenecks Infrastructure of bottlenecks that have nothing to do with the business cycle So you have to difference if you are a macro column is you have to make a difference question between you have to divide that and you Have to analyze them separately and this is why I express here very clearly cyclical deflationary pressure in emerging markets The infrastructure the infrastructure or structural inflation is there But that's not one that you can fight what you can do anything about it that takes years to be removed You need to improve the infrastructure Yeah But it's a very good question I think a lot of people make no differentiation between structure and cyclical and now to your question about the liquidity shock Here again, we do z core analysis of the liquidity shocks and you can see This is something that we ran in February 2014 the 5th of February. Please have a look at that The liquidity shock in emerging markets China only one standard deviation was actually okay, but look at Russia almost three standard deviations Shock so you could actually say for the financial system of Russia what happened in the last year has been severe really severe So if you ask me January this year some trouble in the Ukraine What we told our our fund managers is watch out Russia is going to overreact to do that The West is meddling in Ukraine Very clear message when we saw this 5th of May we said Russia is going to react aggressively to that meddling of the West in Ukraine because of this massive liquidity shock I'd be very frank with you. If you invest in these markets, you have to watch the liquidity and the politics Yes, please it is I respect your version I have people working. We have colleagues working in Russia that were already calling us Telling us to sell everything in Russia before the Ukraine crisis began, but I respect your opinion sure Yeah, yeah, but I think we can discuss it later on And I think we can more or less move on this these slides were made where they are just to help us Man manoeuvre, but I think we can move on. I will not touch on this. This is all known These are you know income inequality, you know this I will go now to This is something that you all know. Yeah, I will go to the geopolitical trends There is a massive military build-up in emerging nations There is reduced maritime and energy security Even the United States doesn't have full access to the maritime rules like it used to Some countries are blocking the United States there We have a lot of unresolved conflicts in Asia flaring up In blue nationalism and anti-semitism is big and coming back all over the world even in Europe very very strong and We've seen this before When both of them rise together is the sign of something is going to happen then Radicalization of Islam is how many people see it here for people in Middle East It's a very beautiful thing that is happening is the rise of Islam So I write both because it depends on which side you are for for Saudi Arabia and Egypt is a radicalization For the people who are embracing Islam. It's a great thing. It's a rise Rise of Turkey I think it's very important the most important event in this decade is the rise of Turkey Then the decluttering this is happening right now and this is one reason why world growth is a bit weak The global supply chain has been heavily exposed in Northeast Asia. This is being decluttered now There is a nitrogen circumvent of Russia We're not gonna go too much into that. There is a revolutionary socialism Latin America this is important because it's affecting policy in the United States and Very clearly policy is very in left there In the next 18 months China is achieving nuclear first strike up ability This sounds funny, but it really meaning the end of start and you start treating Europe and this has implications for Europe and Here finally the superpowers China the US are converging more and more All superpowers are now increasing the tight control over their people information surveillance, etc So there are many ways in which you will not tell any difference between China and the United States It's all conversion. Yes number nine, yeah Rise of revolution solution in Latin America. Yeah, this is a I think very few people Care about that in Europe And this is very sad I always hear that there is a capitalism market economy is back in Latin America It couldn't be more away from the truth The reality is there only four nations in Latin America the all of Latin America four nations There are still completely committed to market economy all the others Almost all the others have committed to revolutionary socialism one way or the other led by Brazil Venezuela, Argentina the three nations You're looking at the economy ideologically those three nations you just mentioned lead shape the ideological hard beat of Latin America if You are a writer a politician in those countries and you are not Leninist or Marxist or Maoist you're nobody You're nobody But if you are Marxist Leninist and you are a writer a politician you got a great future before you It's different from us, you know, we don't we don't I think we have to understand Latin America It's a bit different in Latin America if you are a socialist or revolutionary socialist You don't walk around with the Kalashnikov you are just you are I would say a Someone that is friendly to the third way the Latin American way, but it's not market economy Yeah, yeah Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah It sounds very good the way you say it, but you don't convince me I have a very different opinion, but I respect your your opinion That it's all very friendly to market economy Look half my family lives and works in Brazil, so I I tend to have a slightly different view I Don't know any wealthy person in Brazil that is living his money in Brazil. I don't know anybody Don't do my friends. Don't do my relatives Nobody that I know have come know of he's living his man in Brazil No one that I know of Argentina is one of my favorite countries in Latin America is keeping his money in Argentina But how about Brazil? I think we have a very nice I mean, I think we like to think trouble is only in Asia in Middle East. I would caution with that I would not say the Latin America is is a sinkhole But I would say Latin America is going in the wrong route and it looks good now as long as the income from gas and oil is there It's gonna be okay. I haven't I have a nephew in Brazil who told me I'm leaving Brazil because all of my friends at school They finish school. They're all leaving from some government money And that's how they grew up. That's how I grew up. He's 18 years old. He's telling me that Many sounds good for you, but when the money from oil Income runs out how you're gonna pay the bill Yeah, I have I disagree with that, but I appreciate the comment I think we have to move on this is to me the more important chart and probably the most important chart I can show you today I've been working on this for a few years Borrowed from the CIA and I updated that you can see here how Russia and China are moving south Russia and China are expanding and becoming very very active maybe aggressive in these areas where you see and There are bottlenecks for the maritime trade. You see them here in blue this bottlenecks and The situation is not good. There's more and more tensions on here more and more governments have to send warships here to patrol this area and Something very interesting very interesting. You're seeing the United States fifth fleet now preparing to move to to this area here There is a long port for 80 kilometers long being built right now here to To allow the whole fifth fleet of the United States to move to a safe place Things are preparing in the Middle East and in this part of the world for some kind of confrontation They are at the moment most of them are stationed at different places of the Gulf States and inside the Strait of Ormuz Yeah, but they have now Analamo a pullback position here out of the range of short and short range rockets Something very interesting has happened with all this pressure in the Middle East in those routes Russia has seen is our It's actually already preparing this route for the next few years climate change is helping Russia and A lot of Asian nations China Japan and Korea are very keen to support Russia with this new route. I Mean they all know how difficult the situation is getting here in the South China Sea and also here in the Middle East One of the biggest beneficiaries of this trouble in the Middle East is Russia Yeah Used to be like that very good very very good guess is changing very rapidly now and Russia is building massive nuclear powered ice breakers to help during those two remaining months where it's still blocked So you could actually now already open the route in the winter with the help of super ice breakers That's interesting. It's happening and China Korea Japan are throwing money at that because for them it's a lifeline The the even if they don't believe in anything happening in the Middle East the Asians are very worried about the Southeast South China Sea so they want to have an alternative route Again the biggest beneficiary of that is Russia Yeah I Don't have to foresee it. They're already working together and we in the West have something to do with it with that For a long time Russia has been Co-operating with us, but I can tell you in diplomatic circles It's a giving that the Russians are fed up with the West. They're working together with the Chinese and actually It's a perfect match. They've never trusted each other, but it's a perfect match The Chinese have what the Russians don't have and vice versa Yeah, yeah Very good point as well. South China Sea. I won't say much but it's not looking good and That's why China Japan and Korea are desperate to help Russia with with the Arctic route These are official numbers of military spending. I Suggest to you to enjoy them with a lot of caution Just surveillance spending in China Equals 55% of what they say they spend on military alone So it's very interesting to look at those numbers But I understand nobody has an interest to to expose that industry is probably the only strong industry in the world the last 10 years Here are some of the conflicts in Asia. There are resurgent. Please have a look at them It's only half of them that I put These conflicts are coming up at the moment In the past many of those countries were poor now they have money and weapons and they got a bit they got a few things open As we say in German often the reason Did you want to take care of? And here military jobs Is a big big support for the economy This is now the newest situation East Asia China is achieving nuclear first strike capability in the next few months To be able to respond using a submarines Nuclearly China has to have access to the Pacific otherwise. They will explode over their own heads They have to go through the Okinawa Islands of Japan Japan has sealed the corridor with missiles It's done already. So China has now to go through the north to Soviet Union a very long route and But is the only thing that China can do China and Russia are almost being forced to cooperate now. That's the situation Okay, I will now go to this Middle East, this is the basically the end of it. This is the last part I have to But I'm happy there have been some questions because it's very good to talk So I prefer to skip some slides and you ask questions We talk in the West a lot about the Shia-Sunni conflict One thing that you I hope you can take from here is that that doesn't exist anymore. That is for the press and for politics Shia-Sunni conflict stopped long ago. What we have now is a confrontation between secular Muslims moderate Muslims and Muslims and want to be true Muslims that have embraced Islam, which others call fundamental Islam and You have actually In the press they talk about Shia versus Sunni It's not the case really not in some countries it is but as a whole it is not and what we see is that the fundamentalism is Islamic fundamentalism is winning winning big time in the local populations of the Middle East Islamic fundamentalism Islam is Making big waves they have 30 40 50 60 percent of the population in almost all those countries now So the time is running out for those Secular Sunni rulers or secular Sunni states Something else we're having now is a Nordic alliance and a southern alliance being built in the Middle East Look at the northern alliance. It's led by Turkey Iran Iraq Syria you saw recently the United States is embracing Iran. Well, that has got to do with Turkey the southern alliance is led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt and Iran has called for one million men as Martyrs to bring war to Israel and Sunni they did it before they met here came to Geneva for the first peace talks. It's interesting our I didn't see that the entity said I didn't see it in the media Nobody really reported about that but Iran is preparing for a war. It seems that nobody here wants to report on that And I will show you why we think that the Iranians are serious about that Israel preparing for a major attack within the next 18 months why and This is one thing I want to show you This is the growth of this charismatic movement in the world Which is shaking Catholicism Protestantism Hinduism many religions are being shaken by that because the growth of this charismatic movement is tremendous even in especially in Africa and Asia Growing at more than 4.8 percent per annum in some places 7 percent and That's also putting Islamic leaders under pressure now. Look at this This is where according to the CIA and the Pentagon Islam Former Muslim states have become more fundamentalist more More fervent in their Islamic faith with an R This is Islamic world Almost every second country especially the geopolitical key countries have an R They are now really on the population fervently behind Islam and Look at the alliances now being built Here the southern alliance led by Saudi Arabia in Egypt used to have the support of the United States The United States of Obama has dropped that support and has offered to support Iran Embrace do a peace deal with Iran and look who is on the Iranian side all these countries even Kazakhstan These two blocks are building Why does the West need Iran? Because of the problem with Russia the Europe is depending on Russian gas at the moment But Iran has a lot of gas too huge amount of gas Iraq has a little bit, but we need Iran And you see I've drawn already here the pipes the pipelines that will be there are being prepared to be built Once the deal is signed with the United States a peace deal a pipeline will be built That will connect Iran, Northern Iraq through Turkey up to Romania and from there into the rest of Europe Iranian gas is gonna power Europe in the next few years And that's the reason one of the main reasons why the West especially United States is Dropping these countries here the moderate the US is dropping the moderate Muslim states to support Iran Not because we like it. We we also see the you know the Europe needs gas Yes, you have a question Absolutely This definition is purely geopolitical, but I agree with you completely Yes, I agree with you completely. That's not perfect. It's purely geopolitical In geopolitical military terms, so the Arabia is an ally of the West still fights They still try to fight the terrorism, etc. But I agree with you. There are foundations. They fund everything Yeah, I don't want to touch those things in detail, but I want to go straight to why I've been telling you that the next 18 months could see a war break up With this I will finish you see here We're trying always to understand what's going on in the Middle East with our Western thinking our Western thinking is Greek Roman influence We think linear Rational and progressive just Western thinking that doesn't work like that in the Middle East they don't think like that think slightly different and The religious leaders The religious leaders in the Middle East for them religion honor and history plays a very important role Whether Israel or Arab states They care a lot about this and one thing that we I think we always overlook when we do analysis of their this region Is we forget that they care a lot about their religion? They care a lot about their prophets. They care a lot about their religious, you know beliefs and This is where This is actually an interest is light We have four lunar eclipses and this is all from NASA. We have four lunar eclipses total lunar eclipses Happening in the world this the next year you see the dates and Right in the middle we have a total solar eclipse. That doesn't mean anything to us because we are in the West but two-thirds of the world follows a lunar kind of calendar and Jews and Muslims many of them care about this. Why? because this time Every one of these total lunar eclipses is falling on a major Jewish holy day Doesn't say anything to us, but you know what in the past when such a rare event has happened The enemies of Israel, let's say the Arab states have tried to annihilate Israel You know why? For the Jews, that's a sign of judgment of God against them They're worried about that. They're concerned and the enemies of Israel have known this for over a thousand years So they they see in those in those times a great chance to eliminate Israel and And This is actually the last tetra as we call it in astronomy that we're going to see the next 200 years following on these Jewish holy days So the religious leaders in Israel are very worried. They're very worried. This is the last best chance For the religious leaders in the middle is the one to wipe out Israel to do so the last chance The last best chance I would say the next 200 years probably This is what keeps what is making the the Jews very careful Because it also times very well with Iran achieving his nuclear weapons and the war that is going on in and now in the Middle East At the moment she it looks like Shia and Sunni are fighting each other But I tell you that fight is gonna be finished soon because they need to join together to to face Israel and Who can join Shia and Sunni? Turkey can Turkey will and the United States is already preparing for that now another thing is in the year 2017 we celebrate the 500th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem by the Turks and Turkish leaders are already offering Arab states if you follow our lead we can guarantee to you we can have back Jerusalem again 2017 There is a few important things Anniversary is taking place in 2017 and what we've here what we are hearing is that religious leaders In the middle is they want to They want to make sure those anniversaries don't take place because it is a great chance for them and They really feel also that time is on there on their side Just for your information Those tetras that I mentioned the last few that happened 1968 Arab nations attack or there was a war between Israel Arab nations a six-day war 1948 the Arab states Invaded the rebirth Israel it failed and in 1940 1492 Spain in those days is superpower Decided to finish Israel to they expelled the Jews and persecuted them. So as you can see the Jews The Jews have very good reasons historical reasons why they are concerned about this tetra the we're in now They're very concerned in the past the enemies of Israel have tried to do something and they expect it to happen again so this is it I We have already a few interventions and questions, but if Anybody has a question, please very clearly Chile Mexico Colombia and Peru and they have they are under tremendous pressure by the other states by the way Some of them are even speaking of doing a war against those countries because they are betraying the latin spirit of Revolutionary socialism and we're not talking about jokes. It's really a state level. They're talking about Doing I mean starting a conflict with them But I have to say you should not think that Peru and Chile and Columbus countries are you know capitalism is inscribed in stone in Chile Mass protests in the last two years Are pro-socialism? They're huge The government has had to fire the cabinet twice already in the last 16 months and change the cabinet members all of them except for two with socialist politicians Chile is also under pressure to veer to the left So I want to say Chile looks very good on the outside But this the socialism in Latin America is very very strong It may look I would say very pragmatic at the moment, but it is very strong Yeah, yeah Yes It's a very good question, you know one reason why I would not Be totally concerned about that is the fact that the United States keeps Okinawa, you know this island here No, I'll show it to you in another one Okinawa is very key Here This star yellow that's Okinawa actually where my grandparents come from from here you dominate the whole Sea of Japan South China Sea The United States seven fleet is here and here That's the reason why We have peace at the moment in that part of the world It's a very good question It's a very good question China China's Power is growing almost by the month and now they're working to get up with Russia This is making the whole thing very complex now for your information Very large ships are already already not long a traveling here They're already taking the huge long detour to go this way To make sure they make it because we don't know when hostilities will break out Big ships are already going a long detour here in the mid open ocean a Lot of Navy ships of the moment in the Pacific a lot of Navy ships And I believe if we in the West Would stand for our values and morals and would speak out when something is not right I think a lot of these things would not be happening But for the last 15 years with the rise of these emerging markets we have pampered them We have done everything to get business deals And we have never said or said something when we should have said it for 15 years They have gone unchecked all of these countries and I think that we are gonna probably harvest what we have sown For business deals we have actually not said anything or done very little so we have actually unchecked nationalism Rampant all over the world now unchecked Those countries and now that they are finally seeing an economic rise They have what many of them consider a rightful Yes Power to challenge the West because the West has been misdoing a lot of things in the region You're right about that You're completely right about that To what extent what you mentioned is applicable To what extent the West now can do something Maybe you're right this is what many politicians say They say there is not much we can do the only thing we can do is crisis management I mean many politicians are saying this Military officers intelligence they are sharing this information There was another question here sorry There are other pipes actually there are other pipes being built There is another one here There actually is not just that one but Libya there is another one being built here Here right this way here but but exactly We have now the problem all these other pipes can be blocked by somebody All of them can be blocked by somebody and have geopolitical risks The safest one the biggest gas fields in the West apart from Russia or this part of the world are here The biggest second biggest are here right here northern part of Iraq That's why it makes sense to do it here to get these two largest gas fields Overland and over Turkish which is not Turkish NATO territory So that is what makes sense And you know I've said a few things against some countries today I don't mean anything against nobody I'm just purely speaking from an analytical point of view Purely analytical nothing for against US Israel or Arab countries If I cannot be harsh in my analytical thinking I cannot do this But what the US is doing dropping Egypt, Saudi Arabia in order to provide gas for Europe Why is this happening because we in Europe didn't take care of it We did not date due to our own homework And by doing that the United States is dropping also the peace for Israel Which is not an excuse for World War II Yes Europe we have seen how dependent Europe is Europe is basically completely unable to do anything even if attacked Because we depend so much on Russian gas We depend tremendously on Russian gas in the United States even in Congress People were shocked to see how little Europe can do in case of emergency The Americans realize unless they provide for another gas resource for Europe Europe is not a partner they are on their own They are on their own This is actually very serious I believe that the lack of action on the side of Europe Has forced now the United States to take steps that are destabilized in the Middle East There are many answers to that and that goes more into the political arena I would not go there I would try to stay on the geopolitical part We can expect I would say the following We should stop hitting ourselves with a cord The financial markets yes we have done a lot of mistakes But the financial markets as I said at the beginning are merely reflecting the state of the world The world as I show it even religion has been shaking Science has been shaking everything has been shaking Geopolitically most importantly is in motion So the financial markets are going to continue to reflect that uncertainty and that heightened tension I would not try to run away from it it is just a given The message here for you today is not of a crisis We know we are in a time of crisis it's rather a change The message here today is something up to the run up to September 2015 Is going to change most likely in the Middle East and in the Far East And you better be prepared for that You know these big emerging economies are in crisis Something is changing geopolitically in the Middle East You know this discussion between the US and Russia has changed That's affecting the Middle East The fragile balance in the Middle East is finishing now It's over we have a Nordic and a Southern alliance built Israel caught right in the middle So we know that some change is coming over Coming to us soon probably before September 2015 That's what I would guess That's what Israeli army, Iranian army are preparing for They are preparing for a sort of confrontation over the next two years You know unfortunately in this part of the world I mean I say it unfortunately unfortunately it depends how you put it where you are But we have to come to terms that in that part of the world Religious beliefs are very important We can pretend that it's not there But it is our own demise if we don't do that This is the message here for you Thank you