 What has become clear over the course of recent weeks is the sharp collapse in confidence that we've seen amongst CBI members and this has been of course largely driven by the turmoil in the Eurozone. What it means is that employment and investment plans are now being pulled back and as a result we've had to downgrade our forecast for 2012. We now think that the economy is going to go through a very difficult period over the course of the winter with growth essentially stalling in the fourth quarter and only a much lower rate of growth in 2012 than we'd previously thought 1.2% for the year as a whole rather than the 2.2% that we thought back in the summer. The main risks to the UK at the moment are mostly external. Essentially the Eurozone is the focus of all business worries at this stage because of the potential for a disorderly end to this crisis with the Eurozone in some senses breaking up or at least a serious banking and sovereign debt crisis of the sort that we haven't yet seen. We've already expecting a modest recession in the Eurozone because of the rise in interest rates that's already been experienced there. If that were to turn into a much deeper recession then the impact on the UK through confidence through direct exports and through investment plans would be more severe.