 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Numberfire.com where today we are previewing week number seven across the NFL with John Shearin He's the director of trading at Fandall Sportsbook talking to him about the unique challenges He has had in this COVID era trying to set lines for the NFL and also break down How he's viewing things for this week's biggest games. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank.com Ed. We are on to week number seven. How you doing today? I'm doing great. Looking forward to another week. Hopefully another winning week So and then we got some we got some movement of games. The COVID has hit again It's been a headache. I was so frazzled before we started recording today because they announced at 3 30 p.m. Eastern on Thursday When we're recording that they were going to move the Seattle, Arizona game to primetime and make that sunday night and my main stuff is in daily fantasy and Whenever a game has gotten moved this year because of COVID stuff, they've taken the games off the main slate. Well I have a piece that comes out Friday morning for daily fantasy That breaks down the entire slate. It is currently a non trivial number of words I hate word counts because like if you hear how many words are in this thing You're not going to read it because like no one has a time like I wouldn't read like if there are people on twitter This is a tangent. I don't care But like there are people on twitter who brag hey my piece is 40 000 words long come read it I'm like i'm not going to read that like No, there's no chance i'm going to read this thing. I'll control effort and like search for people I want to read about but i'm not going to read your 40 000 word essay about one game in week seven And like so i'm kind of embarrassed about my word counts usually But there have been a lot of words written about this slate and this slate fundamentally changes if kyler Kyler murray and russell lilson aren't on it So I had spent the half an hour before we started recording sweating My nether region's off because i'm like is this game gonna get taken off this slate? Am I gonna have to rewrite every freaking word that I just wrote the podcast we did for dfs this morning It might be totally irrelevant. So like we were talking to john sheeran. We're getting ready for that and i'm like I'm gonna lose my mind man. It's just hey, that's not something I wanted to deal with today Yeah, well, nothing's been canceled. So I think we're all good and yeah, keep the fingers crossed See now we're good, but my heart my heart has not chilled out yet And I need like a four hour buffer before I chill out because like I had extra coffee made I had I've been you know, just like I'm a little high strong right now Yeah, and I did not need that in my life. So Thankfully all as well all as well all the the concerns are okay And ed we get to watch russell wilson and kyler murray and prime time as opposed Derek Carr is an efficient fine quarterback. I'd rather watch kyler and russe though. Yeah, that's gonna be fun So that that's helpful. Uh, it's gonna be a fun game too Hopefully the stuff with the raiders covet thing gets cleared up and everyone's okay there Apparently tremp brown is hanging out with the offense along with no mask on It's not that hard guys. Just like wear a mask. Let's be smart about this. Yeah, not not gonna be perfect But it's good to take the precaution. Uh, jim also it's thursday And uh, there's only been one college football game to go down this weekend. Is that a record? Oh, yeah, there's been at least five every week Uh, which game was it this week? Uh, the colorado state game is just canceled because the mount west has no buffer Yeah, okay, so So the big 10 still in the clear. Well, yeah opening week And uh, you know two teams are not playing out in the mountains. What could go wrong? What could go wrong with no buffer? Yeah, it can only go well Uh, but thankfully college football is still good as you said, which means you can go back to yesterday and check out our podcast preview with Edward egros breaking down week eight of college football We talked the smu game, of course because he's an adjunct professor at smu We also previewed, uh, michigan versus minnesota, which is one of the big games in the big 10 this week So plenty to talk about with edward egros Make sure you find that by searching for recovery in the spread wherever you get your podcast here What edward had to say about those games and also if you like what you hear Leave us a rating and review as well. We are back to twice weekly show So make sure you're subscribed to get notifications as we go up each and every day as mentioned We're gonna talk to john sheeran You can find john on twitter at j sheeran 1981 He is the director of trading at fan dual sports books So providing a very unique perspective when it comes to discussing All the stuff that's gone down this year. We're gonna talk week seven the nfl We're gonna talk about totals and all the crazy stuff that's gone down there and get his perspective on This week's biggest games and there are a lot of big ones that have had some very interesting line movement so far So looking forward to talking to john in just a bit But first we got to go back to last week We had andy molitor on to preview week number six in the nfl both you and andy had good weeks me Not so much Covering the past So last week you were uncovering the spread as mentioned we had andy molitor on to preview week six of the nfl You can find him on the deep dive podcast and find andy on twitter at andy msfw And he wanted the 49ers plus three in their game against the rams and the 49ers covered Also won that game outright and there was some movement towards the 49ers So good call by andy across the board on that one andy had the packers minus one for their game against the bucks And that one started off looking really good. I had uh plenty of packers my dfs lineups was feeling good And then the poo hit the fan real fast They they did not do much after that first quarter the bucks trounced them And things got off the rails. He and I both had things on the sewers versus the browns And he had the sewers minus three. I had the over on 51 The stealers romped so andy got the win there with the sewers minus three So overall andy two and one on the week solid showing there I was not as good I lost the total because the browns offense totally collapsed baker got benched My heart collapsed as well. It was not great. I also missed the total on the bears and panthers I wanted the over at 44 points. It finished at 39 You though ed did well in that game because you had the bears plus one and a half and they won that game outright So if you just muted me when I was talking like if we can go back and just my audio From that week. It was a great week. Good week by andy. Good week by you Not so hot by me ed I'm going to go tinker with the audio from last week and just omit everything that I said Because you and andy had some good insights Well, you know You know, you get lucky sometimes. So, um, we're we're still going to listen to everything you say, Jim That's so unfortunate for you. I apologize in advance. Uh, but we're going to rebound this weekend We're going to trust the process. We're going to dive back in and get back to it here Just one second by talking to john sheeran But first betting on the nfl is great Betting on the nfl risk-free is even better Fandal sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on week seven of the nfl risk-free with their exclusive single game parl Or same game parlings simply place a three leg or more parlay on any nfl week seven game And follow along as a game unfolds if you don't win your bet Fandal will refund your bet up to ten dollars in site credit What do you have to lose must be 21 plus and present in new jersey, pennsylvania, illinois, indiana, colorado West virginia or iowa refund issued is a non withdrawable site credit that expires in seven days Max refund is ten dollars terms applied gambling problem called 1800 gambler in west virginia visit 1800 gambler dot net In indiana call 1809 with it in colorado call 1805 224 700 and in iowa call 1800 bets off let's bring in john sheeran now once again the director of trading over at fandal sportsbook followed john on twitter at j sheeran 1981 Getting his thoughts on what has been a weird and wild 2020 and also his thoughts week seven in the nfl Covering the present Let's bring john sheeran back into covering the spread to preview week number seven the nfl and just talk generally about What a weird year this has been john. Thank you for coming on and spending time with us today How are you doing? Great gem, but a pleasure to be back enjoyed the last time and hopefully i can Share some insight this time around I guess Yeah, we talked to you right at the beginning of the the quarantine time We were talking some horse racing and at the time you were scrambling to put out different markets Up at fandal sportsbook and you made it through the summer john You made it through the end of uh, we know the hiatus for all the sports What was that time like for you though where you were kind of in limbo for a couple of months They're trying to find different things to offer Yeah, I mean it was exactly like that It was just so busy trying to identify product that was still running anywhere in the globe And then trying to get the regulators to approve the gym was um, you know an interesting time I think in fairness to most of the regulators they understood the need for us But from both sides from their side obviously from a revenue perspective from tax But also from the businesses side from the operators perspective So they were really open to it and overall look it was about surviving letting people know we were still there and relevant and Hoping sport came back sooner rather than later and here we are I guess six months later Yeah plenty of headaches in between but you made it and uh one or two. Yeah one or two for sure But john I think it's it's fun to have you on for today because It's good to get the other perspective when it comes to betting and you know Your perspective when you're actually trying to set these lines and provide these markets and we talk about it from a betting perspective all the time But it's been a different experience for you For you as well, I'm sure so what unique challenges have you run into in trying to adjust for what really has been A lot of differences across the nfl this year Yeah, look what I would say is look we treat Covid particularly almost like an injury injury news, right? So if we hear something breaking that's you know key or going to impact any game We suspend it as quickly as we can try and get the information And then try and go back as quickly as we can because we understand that not alone Do we not have it from a bookmaking perspective, but the betters also really don't know So there may be a few people here and there who know what's happening and have access to that information But overall, you know, it's a relatively fair playing ground and as a result I think the onus is on us to provide lines as quickly as we can and I think we do a good decent job of that I think challenges, you know hanging lines that are so so vulnerable To something that's completely outside of our knowledge base or our control is difficult We make mistakes with lines at the best of times, Jim So doing it in this scenario particularly like I think back to Cam Newton against the Chiefs with that Patriot offense and they come off Seattle A couple of weeks before that and we felt like that was a really good spot to try and take advantage Of laying a number that was under a touchdown at that stage with the Chiefs So we were minus six minus six and a half something like that from memory only to be downgraded To Brian Hoyer, so a lot of a lot of betters got on the right side of that But to be fair to them, that's a two-way street and sometimes it goes against them So we just try and play fair as we can and you know deal with it when it's wrong Have you've changed anything with the process of posting lines or have you kept things pretty similar? Just because like you said it can't go either way Yeah, I think the process stays the same, you know, but we can't sit there and wonder what if I think, you know, when we see things like the Raiders this weekend, we'll probably reduce the limits We see that half of the O line and the safety has gone on The COVID IR so, you know, whether or not they're able to play is still debatable So we'll still hang that line. We have the same information that the public have and you know We protect ourselves from sharper betters with limits and And up them once we get confirmation of what the state of play is going to be Excellent. So John, one of the most interesting stories has been the increased scoring in the NFL How have you been dealing with totals and how are you adjusting? Are you using the analytics or are you kind of letting the market tell you where you should be on a game? I think both. I think in general when you lean as heavily as we do on priors I guess being slow to react to small sample sizes can be a weakness, potentially also a strength When you see the overreaction in the market in general from one week to the other and people's perception of who's good and who's bad and whether it's an over or an under narrative that keeps being driven by the media is another one that's kind of I struggle with to kind of annoys me from time to time Obviously, there's been a lot of talk at about the impact of officiating on the scoring rates and I think that's a small element. I think undoubtedly there was a directive from the NFL but I think the other contributing factor is like better decision making, passing on earlier downs going forward and short from further out the field I think all of those things are lending themselves to better decisions, more efficient scoring and offense in general. The other thing is that a lot of the scoring was driven by just a handful of teams really. When you strip them out and look at the average scoring from the rest of the league it actually wasn't that different and then we also leaned a little bit on what we learned in 2011 I think from the lockout season where we saw this massive increase in scoring through both pre-season and then the first three weeks of the regular season. So we always had I guess in the back of our mind that it may start to normalize after five or six weeks and yes, last week was one week but I think we may start to see more kind of regression to where we expect it to be. I think there will be a little bit higher but in general I think a small bit of regression is expected. I think I agree with basically every word you said. Yeah, I think we are going to see a little slightly higher totals. I don't know exactly where it's going to end up but it's going to be higher than the 45.7 points per game that we had last year. Yeah, for sure. So let's talk about some games here, John. I think I want to start here with the game that to me is most fascinating from a movement perspective so far this week. Steelers at Titans are as of Thursday. It's Titans minus one and a half. The total here is 50 and a half and this one opened at Steelers minus one. It was then Steelers minus two and a half but now the Titans are one and a half point favorites. So was that because of money coming in? Is that you taking a stand on this game, John? What led to the movement in that line? Yeah, I think this one's been all over the place. I think we actually opened it as Titans minus one. It went to Steelers all the way to minus two and a half as recently as Thursday. I think the guys sat down realistically though Jim on Wednesday and everyone shared their view and we landed where we are now at Tennessee minus one, minus one and a half or so. Personally, I'm not sure that's entirely right. I think the Titans to my mind at least have been in big trouble in all part of the Bills games from a win probability perspective and maybe slightly flatter to have the record that they do. I think they're a solid football team but I think the Steelers might actually match up pretty well against them. I think we heard from Mink if it's Patrick for the first time with that pick six last week and if they can kind of build on the momentum from that game on the defensive side of the ball, I think the Steelers have been pretty efficient with that kind of shorter playbook from Ben and for me they're a better football side and I think getting them at any sort of plus money to me at least seems like a little bit of value even though the vast majority of the team here don't agree with me. Do you have situations like that often where the team disagrees and where to put a line and how does that get sorted out when there are those disagreements? Yeah, look I think it's a good debate and I think it's one we have internally every week around who makes the best argument for why they think the line should be A, B or C and we've got obviously a lot of data from the guys over many years and I think the guys with more experience and that have proven that when we take a stance against the market that that's what we see and how they perform is assessed and it kind of all goes into a mixing pot and we come out with a random answer that's sometimes right and sometimes wrong but the hope is that we get more of them right than wrong. I think the guys do a good job of that. Excellent, let's move on to Seahawks at Cardinals. Seahawks are three and a half point favorite here. The total is a 55 and a half. Cardinals are four and two on the season but you know only one of their wins came against a legit quarterback. How are you viewing that team versus the Seattle team that's been explosive on offense? Yeah, I think two different perspectives on these teams from our point of view at least. Seattle is a team that the guys were very high on particularly after week one we saw that fundamental change in the way that they were laid out their game plan. We saw that kind of pass first offense for the first time from Pete Carroll and you know once we saw them go to New England in week two and kind of carry that forward I think it was a good indication for us that this was a fundamental change and not scheming for week one. So we were pretty high on Seattle, made a pretty big adjustment after week two and their future price for the Super Bowl and I think the opposite is probably the state of play with Arizona from our point of view. I think you know not really sure what they've achieved. They were a bit of a sexy pick at the start of the year. Everyone was talking about you know second year rookies in the NFL and the progress that they can make. Yes they had you know more weapons to use but I think overall Keiler's probably struggled to utilize them in the way that we might have thought that he would. Obviously his legs are incredible. He's probably one of the most moving quarterbacks we've ever seen but outside of that I think I've been a bit disappointed particularly in this passing game. So we feel like they're probably overrated in the in the market and when you look at their body of work I guess Bar the comeback win in week one against the Niners you can hand question marks over a lot of it. So I think we'll definitely end up favoring the Seahawks in this game. Do you see this one staying at three and a half or do you think that you could potentially widen even a bit more to account for how high you are on Seattle. I think we're already shaded to that three and a half anyway. I know most of the market is now three and a half but that was a pretty big move that we made off three gym first. Yeah I don't think we'd be opposed to going to four if we started to see the money come that way. I expect we'll see Seattle money particularly off that buy. So yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see a move another another tick towards Seattle. Okay all right so Seattle a team the Fandals Sportsbook is high on after the first couple of weeks and honestly they have made you look pretty smart for that for sure John. Let's move now to the Monday night game. We got the Bears at the Rams. The Rams are six point favorites here. The total is 44 and a half and these two teams have both been a bit of a surprise so far this year. I mean the Rams surprise and how they performed the Bears are surprised from a record perspective maybe not how they performed. Which team do you view as being more legitimate long term between these two teams? I don't think there's any argument here is there. I think everybody knows the Rams are a better football side and probably more legit as you call it than the Chicago Bears. We were pretty aggressive with this line as well. We were almost the first to jump out to six and again probably another one that we would not mind going another half a point or so trying to keep ourselves ahead of the market and charge a little bit more for people betting the Rams in this spot. Yeah not an awful lot more they've been incredibly healthy obviously all year probably paid victim a little bit to the having East Coast travel schedule that they had going into the Niners game. I think that game might have flattered San Francisco a little bit as well. I thought they schemed really well particularly in the first half until they lost mosters but yeah overall I think definitely the Rams for us. I think the Bears offence is a real question mark and a real struggle for them. Can't rush the football anymore in Montgomery I think at 40 yards last week. One or two big players here and there and outside of that I think can scheme very well against them. I think it'll suit the Rams and we wouldn't be surprised to see an easy Ram win. Yeah and I think that this one is interesting because the Seahawks change was pretty obvious and making a futures adjustment on them made a lot of sense but the Rams it's been a bit more mixed because they performed really well but I guess maybe it's with me but I still have questions around the defense. You know I know they have tremendous individual playmakers but the defense has been great. I just don't know if the overall talent is there. There's some fragility there and the Rams offensively have relied a lot on yards that you catch a lot on the ground game. Have you how what was the reaction process for you with the Rams. How long did it take you to buy in to what they were doing initially this year or are you still the skeptical of what they've done. I think you know they're ballpark where we expected them to be. The guys in Fairneson did call it at the start of the year and again we're pretty high on the Rams relative to the market. So I think you know for me we're not seeing a lot that we didn't expect from the Rams. Last year seems like it was a bit of a struggle but if you think back to the Super Bowl the previews here they were obviously super impressive particularly through the regular season. Okay they dipped a little bit as they led themselves towards that Super Bowl but you know I don't think overall you know we're seeing a lot that we didn't expect from them. Like you said heavily leaning on play action deep threats from Cop it's good to see him back to the level he was even with those drops last week but again going back to this game you know to us it just seems like a really dangerous spot for the Bears to try and run it up the middle and if they can't run the ball then you're talking about putting Aaron Donald in his face and you know I'm not sure that's the best winning strategy from the Bears. So it doesn't concern you that the Rams have only beaten teams from the worst division in football and that kind of preseason you guys had them very middle of the pack in the NFL. Yeah definitely I think it's a fair call out I think you know me and you and Jim could probably put a team together capable of competing in that division so I think it's probably one that's you know in certain spots will overrate the Rams like in in San Francisco for example and that was one where we definitely shifted our view on that game from the Rams to the Niners at five and a half six point swing whatever it was from the look ahead in one week seemed crazy to us but this feels like a really good match up for us and I doubt you know many smart batters will be taking the Bears looking at the match up. Excellent. Alrighty here any other games that pique your interest this week John or were super hard to set it number four in week number seven. I guess the obvious one is probably the Jets Jim I mean we've we've nearly we've nearly gone broke laying laying all the minus numbers here I don't think it matters what number we put against the Jets and just can't seem to hang a number high enough that will attract a lot of interest. I think this week will be a really good test for it though you know potential to get Sam Darnhill back 13 and a half is a very very big number at home. The bills probably coming off to kind of down weeks as well even though I think they're a really good match up against the Jets is going to test and see you know if people are just blindly following in any of the minuses against against the Jets and who might argue it's been six and all for that strategy so far so that's probably the one that's a bit of a headache for us every week and you know you guys will know it leaning on prior so heavily it's very hard to jump on the Jets as quickly and get them down as far as we can to where you know you know it makes sense because you know you're leaning on past and that's a good process and strategy most of the time obviously just very difficult when you've got a really bad team like the Jets. Yeah absolutely I mean I think those are there's those always got to be really hard for you right I mean we had Miami last year that looked miserable for a while they ended up bouncing back Jets are in a similar position I think I mean you know NFL teams shouldn't be 10 points worse than league average and that's exactly where I have the Jets right now I mean is there I mean this is both from you know the bookmaker and the better perspective like do you have to just watch this team more to see if there's any kind of regression to the mean that's coming and getting better or how do you how do you I think we've been expecting that for six weeks yeah yeah look it's a challenge and it's not just ratings on teams right it's scoring it's changes in offense we were lucky that we were on Seattle otherwise you could have been undervaluing them through the first five weeks as well so I think there's such a fine balance and some of it is completely intuitive that isn't you know buried in numbers somewhere that you can do the analysis and pull it out and say here's the teams that are actually just way worse than what your prior will ever get you so I think that's a real challenge and there's a fine art to that that a lot of you know really heavily analytical people really struggle with and I'm sure you know plenty of them that have had six bets six losers on the Jets this season already what about you John let's say you weren't in your position and you were you know out there and you're the generic better would 12 points be enough for you to bet the Jets or would you be still be staying away at that number you know I heard somebody say it and it kind of sounds like a silly thing to say but somebody said it to me I don't know who was in the last couple of weeks around staying away from betting on bad teams in general yeah and as silly as that sounds because of course there's a number where they're going to attempt you I don't know that it's the worst strategy in the world for exactly the reason that we just talked about yeah I don't know I mean it seems to me like 13 and a half and 14 is very very fair I don't see it getting to 14 as we said expecting Darnold to come back it'll probably actually tip back towards the Jets but I don't think I could spend your money on the Jets this year Jim well I appreciate that John thank you I like to keep my money so thank you I do appreciate that that is John Sheeran make sure you check him out on Twitter at Jay Sheeran 1981 he again is the director of trading over at Fando Sportsbook John thank you so much for swinging by for today hopefully things break somehow well for you and the customer in week seven I don't know how to to phrase that but regardless good luck to you in week seven and we appreciate the time thanks guys appreciate it covering the future one big thank you once again to John Sheeran for joining us for today followed John on Twitter at Jay Sheeran 1981 and Ed it was fun to listen to John talking about totals because it sounded like verbatim a lot of the discussions we've had this year talking about the 2011 lockout year talking about penalties like yeah I mean obviously he has to know his stuff to be in the role that he's in but it's it's nice to hear people you know I guess validate us I don't know whatever I just feel better when it sounds like we're saying smart things hopefully yeah absolutely and he almost said like kind of section for section what I talked about in the podcast this week about whether scoring will continue to increase in the will continue to surge in the NFL or whether you know I mean there's competing factors of regression versus like you know underlying efficiency gains so yeah that's on the football analytics show and then also I'm gonna get a written part of it out because I it's a prediction I feel pretty strong I feel pretty good about so and the podcast version is up already yeah podcast version is up on the football analytics show okay nice we'll check that out I think it was a perfect week to have John on too not just because of the totals but also because like the movement in that Steelers Titans game is fascinating and I think it was good to hear his perspective that it was like actually them taking a stand because that game is it's really interesting and hard for me to just diagnose so I'm glad that I'm not the only one in that boat absolutely so dr. Eric eager came on my podcast sometime in September and he said that Tennessee was the third best team in the AFC and I said not Pittsburgh he's like no not Pittsburgh and I don't necessarily agree with him so this game is like my numbers and John Sheeran versus the markets and dr. eager so uh yeah I'm really looking forward to see what happens in that game I never want to be on a side against dr. eager uh that like we talked about how scary it is to bet against Russell Wilson I think it's equally scary to bet against dr. eager well and and be on the other side from John Sheeran too right right like I don't you know that scares the poo out of me so good luck to your heart Ed um we'll see how things go but I think that's it's fascinating game I feel pretty good about John and I side honestly yeah I think I always get really worried about teams that are dependent on efficiency which the Titans are uh and and kind of shucking regression I don't know if that's like used to the word shucking but who cares it's our podcast but anyway uh staving off regression for so long and having an impactful injury like the one to Taylor LaWan that's that would scare me a lot I know that the Steelers don't have Devon Bush but Taylor LaWan means that the Titans are going to be starting their backup right tackle at left tackle I guess they're starting their backup left tackle at their third string left tackle left tackle because their backup left tackle is already starting at right tackle because their first round pick at right tackle was on the COVID list twice and was got a DUI for doing donuts at a parking lot so they've had a weird gear at tackle I value offensive line play a lot their offensive line play will not be as good as it has been previously so that would make me very nervous and that also contributes to my not being able to diagnose that game so it'll be a fun one to watch and hopefully I get to watch that one on Sunday but let's dive into covering the future Ed and talk about a couple of other games starting off with from a daily fantasy perspective my favorite game on the slate that is the Packers versus the Texans we're going to see a lot of points in this one what do you see standing out in this one from a betting perspective yeah absolutely I mean we all know Aaron Ryder's has been phenomenal this year has a 91 passing grade at pff the Packers offense ranks eighth in my adjusted passing success rate and this is just significantly better than the 18th that they were last year and it's really surprising right I mean they did nothing to help the passing game in the offseason and Devonte Adams has missed two games right so Green Bay has gone from this team that was the most overrated 13 and 3 team in the history of the league to like legitimate Super Bowl threat right I don't I'm looking around the NFC and yeah the Saints are there but like you know who else are we are we really talking about I think the Packers are in that conversation I am keeping an eye on the Packers defense last year they were 12th when I look at my adjusted passing success rate this year they're 23rd so far still small sample size we've seen a lot of jumps in passing success rate numbers first of all being Buffalo and Josh Allen dropping quite a bit from first after that wonderful performance on a Monday night football but Jerry Alexander's actually been playing great for the Packers so they've dropped despite his play so that's something I'm keeping my eye on but I actually like the team on the other side of the ball Houston is basically all the Sean Watson they're first when I look at passing success rate he's not getting help from the running game and their defense is terrible but the defense isn't quite as terrible as I suspected just from watching some of their games they're not a bottom five unit they actually ranked 24th when I look at my adjusted success rate they've been gashed by a couple big plays the big run by Derek Henry for 94 yards last year otherwise they they probably cover that game they probably win that game yeah um and so uh yeah anyways their defense is bad but not like bottom five type bad when you put it all together my number is like Green Bay still to win the game by about a point and a half but I I always like uh betting on DeSean Watson at home getting points and he's getting three and a half points and uh that's the game of life and I think that the biggest mark in your favor outside of DeSean Watson who is a very big mark in your favor is that David Bakhtiari is potentially going to miss that game for Green Bay and outside of Aaron Rodgers I think that Bakhtiari is a guy who is the biggest impact on that Packers offense like they were fine at Devonte Adams that was just weird because Devonte is a very good player he's great but yeah he's amazing but they were fine without him I don't know if they'll be fine with David Bakhtiari in Limbo uh he didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday he could still play Aaron Rodgers said it sounded like they were kind of optimistic he'd play earlier in the week so it still possibly does play but if he can't go I don't think they I don't know if they can take advantage of that that Texans rough defense so I think that if I had to bet aside on this one I'd lean towards the Texans I would just be you know personally I can't I can't quite get there yet with that with David Bakhtiari in Limbo which stakes because you know you want to take advantage of the best slide you can get and if Bakhtiari is ruled out maybe things move towards the Texans but I think that he is like I we shouldn't have point spreads move for non-corner backs that often I think that Bakhtiari might be one of those guys where he could actually impact things a little bit yeah could be I don't know I like the number where it's at so yeah yeah again betting under Sean Watson probably not a bad idea more often than not I mean look it didn't work out last week but um I'm you know I'm surprised I mean if you remember the game like Tennessee scored very late on well the way it worked is um so the Houston when uh or they scored to go up seven points and then Romeo Cronell had the decision do you go for two to go up by two scores or do you take the extra points and force the Titans to make a two point conversion he tried to go for two to make it a two score game and I was kind of surprised that the analytics were were torn on this or it's kind of like a net zero where like the expectation was relatively even to go for two or to take the extra point make it an eight point game I kind of assumed that the the optimal would always be to go for two to get the two score game and effectively and the game but apparently like based on the numbers it was potentially even favoring kicking the extra point but I think that like like you said they would have they would have won that game outright potentially I've not been for that so well they played well they just had some they had a lot of things break against them well yeah exactly I mean the Titans came back down and scored very late but like yeah his knee was down out of bounds before that second foot got in um oh with AJ Brown touchdown yeah I thought so too but that's because I didn't have AJ Brown in daily fantasy and I did not want that game to go to overtime so I agreed with you just for very different reasons yeah no for sure and it just makes me think like I mean there were some fans there and you know how much that I don't know I thought it was I mean obviously I was biased I was too but I thought his knee was was down out of bounds before that second foot got in and that obviously is another well I mean that doesn't actually win the game for them but because they had to play yeah they had another play and they had overtime uh so like that didn't win the game but it allowed them to win the game and uh I wish it hadn't happened we'll put it that way so you are putting your faith into Sean Watson I am putting my faith in Drewlock we'll see how this goes there is some potential snow in the forecast this week in Denver and potentially as a result we've seen the total come down for the Chiefs Broncos it's at 45 and a half right now in Fandall Sportsbook but my favorite market in that game is actually for the Broncos to go over 17 points and a big part of this is health the Broncos seem likely to get uh both Noah Fand and KJ Hamler back this week they have not had a single game this year in which they've had all three of Fand Hamler and Loc available outside of 13 snaps against Pittsburgh they didn't play well initially there but after Loc got hurt the Broncos actually scored 21 points on the road against Pittsburgh's defense with Brent Ripenek quarterback now they get Loc back Fand is healthy again Hamler's healthy again and this Chiefs defense is really solid they're actually ninth in number fires metrics they're a good defense and the Broncos offense does not look good but having all these pieces healthy figures to make a pretty big difference last week against the Patriots the Broncos did exceed this total and that was on the road against a better defense in Kansas cities and now they're at home and they will be getting really key pieces to this offense back the snow is definitely a concern as it can impact things we actually saw a similar situation last year where they were facing the Chiefs on the road within a snow game and they scored just three points but with wind not being a major factor as of now I think things are getting kind of blown a bit out of proportion maybe overreacting to what we saw in that game last year so to me I think taking the Broncos over 17 points feels like a borderline no-brainer it's also could just be because I'm kind of a Drew Loc fan he's got a a bit of Josh Allen in him in the positive sense where every play is going to be not boring whether for better or worse I mean sometimes definitely can be but I think I think that the Broncos can keep this game competitive and that's not being reflected in the market right now so I want the Broncos over 17 points against Kansas City and then I think that this one does kind of go counter to the numbers because it's partially because like I I prefer numbers always but I watched Drew Loc last week and he looked really good I know the numbers were hideous he was terrible like from a numbers perspective 10 to 24 through two terrible picks but like dude is dropping some dimes and they just weren't caught and I think the odds that they're caught now are higher with Fenton Hamler back so kind of kind of trusting my gut here which doesn't always make me feel all that great but I feel okay about it still any read for you on this game between the Chiefs and the Broncos I mean my member numbers have Denver scored 19.7 or 20 points so I I do not like Kansas City's defense I know they're like I know they're like fourth when I look at passing adjusted passing success rate but that's probably just a Josh Allen fluke there's a man who should have the worst game of the season you know last last Monday night I just don't think Kansas City's defense is good they've invested that team on that offense and they're they're you know and the secondary is not particularly good so yeah I mean going against Kansas City's defense is a good thing yeah and uh this is the so between the past two weeks my bets outside of yesterday we're talking about the Seahawks Cardinals game that was riding a Russell Wilson the past two weeks my bets have ridden on Baker Mayfield Nick Foles Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Locke we're we're playing with fire here and we'll see if we think to get a little bit better uh this week but I think the Broncos going over 17 points a good bet it leaves to me that is all that we have for today Ed you already mentioned you have the podcast on totals posted on the football analytics show yeah what else is going on for you there and over at the power rank so right my email newsletter it's best way to try a sample of uh my my predictions most importantly and then also my analysis as well so get that at the powerank.com and uh yeah check out the football analytics show trying to do trying to do some interesting new things there all right perfect and uh if you want to hear the totals things that as was talked Ed was talking about before go to the football analytics show and get that podcast there also follow Ed on twitter at the power rank and check out the powerank.com I am at gymsonus on twitter j i m s a n n e s as mentioned we recorded our daily fantasy podcast this morning with myself and Brandon Godula you can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and uh getting our thoughts on a very fun uh week seven slate for daily fantasy also make sure you follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big thank you to both our guests this week Edward Egros on the college side john sheeran on the nfl side followed john on twitter at j sheeran 1981 and make sure you subscribe to cover in the spread uh to get all of our podcasts right as they are posted twice weekly now through the end of the season for both college and the nfl side of things big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in both today and yesterday to get our insights here for college football in the nfl good luck to your bets across all the sports we'll talk to you again next week this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network