 Okay, by my timing that's 12.15. Let's kick things off here. Welcome to the weekly charting analysis webinar with CMC Markets and myself, Jasper Lawler. Just kind of a quick breeze through the risk warnings here. I should mention, as always, that feel free to fire through questions at any point. I'm happy to address them, whether it be some particular instrument you're interested in or some setup on the charts or a particular piece of news. I'm happy to give my opinion. So here's your blows here as the CMC Markets platform. We're about to see a new record open in the S&P 500. These are all the various sectors. This is something I posted last week. You can see that it's the technology sector that's gaining the most ground and pushing the market higher the most at the moment. But if we just view our traditional candlestick analysis, we can see that we've basically pushed above this tight recent trading range that we've been in just about and into new record territory. I would argue that it's not a very confident looking breakout with that previous peak and it's definitely some scope for a false breakout still. If you're brave, there's room for a countertrend trade here, but we're over 70 on the RSI, so looking a bit overboard, but obviously the trend is higher. So power for lease resistance is for higher prices, but only narrowly outside of this trading range at the moment. Another thing to bear in mind is that the US 30, our proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is still beneath those peaks that we reached earlier in July. But I would say given that the S&P is set to open in new record territory, I would say that odds are favouring the US 30 at least going for a run up towards that 18-700 mark, which would be just a bit of round figure resistance as we trade up into record territory where it's obviously all just open air. There's no previous support resistance to really tell us. And as I mentioned last week's webinar, a very optimistic scenario is that the Fibonacci extension of this move in correction would push that up to 1900-700, but obviously got 19,000 in the way first, and that would be quite an impressive move to get up there. So summarising, I think the trend is higher, but obviously it's difficult mentally to buy into record highs. We always have a temptation to believe the top's in, and obviously there will be some short term top at some point. It's almost impossible to picture exactly where my attitude towards it is, just from the experience I have of watching the markets, is that it's really better to try and ride the trend rather than try and predict its end. So what's driving these gains? Well, I think certainly the Bank of England has played its part. We can have a look at the UK 100 as well to see that. The Bank of England obviously stepped in with more aggressive monetary policy than most expected, and having done so, it pushes back the expectation that the Fed can be the only central bank out there diverging with the rest and hiking interest rates. That's obviously positive for US stocks, if the Fed hold back, but maybe the economic data in the US is improving a little bit, judged on the non-farm payrolls result that we had on Friday. So that's a bit of the Goldilocks scenario that stocks like monetary policy in the Fed is remaining easy in the US, getting easier in Europe. And of course, economic growth looking a bit better in Q3 than it was in Q2 for the US at least. We had some economic data, not economic data, but some data from Visa, suggesting that consumer spending was pretty stable, actually rose in July, month over month. And so they said that the growth in consumer spending had moderated a bit, but still growing. So obviously no real signs of Brexit fears there, not evidence matching that of what happened with business sentiment where manufacturing and service companies reported a big drop-off in new orders. So it remains to be seen who's going to prove correct here, the consumer who keeps demanding these goods and services, which companies should respond to and keep producing them, or the business is right to be uncertain after the Brexit vote and the uncertainty around the trade deals and things. It remains to be seen. We do have some hard economic data for the UK this week, but it's industrial manufacturing production and that has a bit of a lag. So unfortunately that won't tell us too much about post-Brexit Britain, but it will be a bit of a hard economic data to corroborate where the UK economy was up in that lead-up to the Brexit vote. And so far the hard economic data, not just surveys and sentiments and things, has actually been fairly decent for the UK in the end of Q2. So here we are, having broken out of this previous range in the UK 100, and we've stalled at this peak from August 6th. Now we're up at this previous peak around July 20th, July 17th. We did pop above there, but we're coming off the highs a bit today. So this I would argue is quite a solid resistance. And I actually had this line in. It didn't really have this previous peak, which actually did work quite well, just because I noted the strength of the pullback back in May of 2015 when it was acting as support and then it acted well again as resistance later. So I had that as a stronger level than this level. So we are up there now. And if we do get a pullback down past this previous peak, if we pull out to the weekly chart, that would start to look a bit like a false breakout. Nonetheless, same principle, the trend is higher, but we've got a bit more resistance, because obviously we're below record peaks for the UK 100. So I think we really need to be clearing this 875 up here before we can start feeling a lot more confident and thinking that we can actually go up and challenge that 7100 again and new record peaks for the UK 100 and the FTSE 100, obviously. I mean, if you project this range of about 5800 to about 6500, you call that a 700 point range, you add 700 points on top of 6500, that puts you to 7200. So a very simplistic sort of mirror effect of that range projected above, now that we've broken above it, would be positive for the market. So if you are looking for some sort of emotional stability when you're buying into these new peaks, that's something to bear in mind. There is some technical reasoning here that this trend could continue. Let's have a look at the Germany 30. So this is interesting. So we had various levels of support and resistance working quite effectively here, in a complicated manner, I should add. So we had the downsloping trend line, which we broke above, but we failed at the previous yearly resistance, the 2016 highs. Came back down, broke back through that declining trend line, found support of the 200-day moving average, and we've rallied straight back up to that 10,500. My interpretation of this situation is that while 10,500 certainly could be resistance again, I think the fact that we're back up here so quickly after having touched it recently, to me suggests that the market is poised for a breakout higher. And the next major level of resistance in my mind is about 10,870, which in a way looks much similar to the kind of support and resistance that we're looking at in the 1,100 different dates. But that same principle as to why I've actually pulled out that level, just because it's worked on a couple of occasions. And obviously just above there we have the 11,000 round number mark. So still inside the range for now, but looking at the higher lows on the RSI momentum, the fact that we're not actually overbought yet, and that we've so quickly turned around off the 200-day moving average to me suggests some demand. And if you're looking for an excuse fundamentally, I think again it's the Bank of England of East Policy, while that's not necessarily great for exporters from Europe into the UK, because obviously sterling is weaker, Euro proportionately higher, it probably does increase the odds of the ECB expanding policy at some point in the not too distant future. And so that would obviously be supportive of European markets and the Germany 30. Another sort of big mover today is the oil market. So the chatter today has been that Venezuela and a few other oil producing countries are trying to organise a freeze in output amongst OPEC. We've already had a good rebound off the lows, so this is just kind of adding to it a bit. And obviously given that we've already seen sort of three pretty solid days of gains today, the momentum's slowing off a bit despite this news. But I would also argue that it's in part due to the fact that any sort of agreement at this stage to me seems unlikely, because we still have a big spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia, if you remember, basically refusing to freeze its own output unless Iran's involved, but Iran doesn't want to do anything until it's scaled up its production back to those kind of presanctions levels. And so Iran actually has expanded production a lot faster than most people thought. The general expectation was it would take Iran a couple of years to get their oil output back to the same extent that it was before the US and the West in general put sanctions on them because of their nuclear program. Obviously since that those sanctions have been lifted, the nuclear program's been sort of agreed upon to some extent. They've really ramped it up and Iran is not far off its presanction levels now. And so to my mind, November when the next OPEC meeting is, it is a bit of a live meeting if you like. It's potential that actually they do reach some agreement because if Iran has got its all output back to where it is, they have more of an economic reasoning to go along with an output freeze to try and stabilize prices because they've got their output to where they want it again. So the timing as far as now looks a bit dubious to me as far as any kind of agreement. So on that basis this rally may run at a steam fairly soon because fundamentally it's not all there to my mind. And I would still characterize this as a downtrend, but we have basically, if you take the median of the Brent WTI prices, Brent basically found support at 41, WTI found support around 39, the median's 40. So you could sort of say 40 plus the 200 day moving averages, quite strong support. And so that's why I think we're getting a good technical rally here. But it certainly would not be a surprise to me to see sometime before, using our cash prices here, before 45 or 4550 where we had the low from July, it wouldn't be a surprise to me to see the market roll back over and try to retest somewhere near those lows. But I think probably what we're looking at here in general is that this sort of 45 to 50 range has transitioned into a new lower range of maybe 40 to 45. And obviously you've got to change that opinion should we break below 40, that median level of 40, 41 on the Brent chart. But to my mind that looks less likely at the moment given the strength of this rebound. If we do take out 41, then obviously the random number 40, that corresponds quite well with a 50% retracement of this entire up move for this year. So if we see some big selling coming into this rally here, maybe it can get halted down there at some quite strong confluence of support. But even if we get down to 40, obviously that still kind of supports a sort of 40 to 50 range in Brent. Switching over to gold now. So I mentioned in my, well we mentioned in the evening note on Friday, the evening call that the fact that gold put in a lower peak here, not quite been able to take out the highs from July 11. Well I think that's why I was here July 6. To me this down move here suggests maybe gold's in a bit of trouble. I mean the reason that gold's fallen off obviously is that we've got a big rebound in the dollar. So the rebound in the dollar is because the economic data in the US was strong. And as we were saying earlier, yes the economic data in the US is strong, but can the Fed really go up against every other central bank in the world which is cutting into a state and be the one to diverge so strongly by in fact tightening policy and hiking rates. It's quite debatable. So if you're of the opinion that the Fed aren't going to hike rates, obviously that's negative for gold. That supports the idea of something along the lines of a double top forming here. Or if you believe the Fed doesn't really have much scope for tightening and they've got the good excuse of the US election coming up as well. Then actually this is just a correction in gold and you'll be looking at that 1,300 level to hold. By the way I've got this line in here and I think it is significant. We had a series of sort of opens and closes in around this sort of 1,330 type area and that's right where we are now today. So a close above that level today could see Kitty Gold supported in the interim below there and I think a test of 1,300 is certainly on the cards. Of course not certainly, but likely. And if you do use momentum indicators just sort of thinking it through here that we've had a couple of failed attempts to get through the 50 level down below 50 on the RSI would denote a sort of more bearish momentum. And then obviously that is coinciding with this apparent level of resistance turned support where we currently sit. Now I'll jump over to the FX markets. As far as the economic data we had some data out of China today and the trade data you know it was fairly weak but it wasn't anything to really write home about and I don't think it's worried markets too much. You could see mining shares are stronger than the 50-100. A good indicator of the markets not being too phased but really is the data out of China that's going to dominate proceedings this week. Industrial production, retail sales, inflation data all coming out from China this week. And we've got the RBNZ so the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate statement. Not typically something I put a lot of focus on but I think it would just be interesting because obviously the RBA, the Reserve Bank of Australia they cut in just right so given the closeness of those two economies there's a bit of an increased speculation that the RBNZ might do the same. So I'll just pull up the Euro chart here. As I've been mentioning for several weeks in a row here just very choppy in the Euro. We basically had a false breakout through 112 so that was our resistance and we got an immediate close the next day and that was a bearish engulfing candlestick so to my mind with the benefit of hindsight that's not a bad setup when you have a decent resistance like this zone here that I've highlighted. A breakout here and then a sell right beneath it the following day with a bearish engulfing candlestick with the benefit of hindsight and it will sell down to the 200-day moving average and we found some support there. Obviously it took some strength for the market to be able to push out above that 112 and so I think the scope now for a fairly well-defined downsloping RSI trend line here that could turn into support near the 50 level and that would obviously be matching up with the 200-day moving averages of support so maybe with a bit of confirmation this could be the beginnings of another attempt at that 112 and then a push up towards 130. What can cause that? Well obviously for the Euro to be rising the dollar has to be weakening and that's not the current state of affairs. The one bit of US data worth noting is US retail sales but that's not until Friday. The expectation there is for a bit of a slow down growth to moderate from 0.6% to 0.4%. We do have on the same day we've got German GDP data as well and the first reading for European GDP so two big data points but we have to wait until Friday for those. Let's have a look at Sterling. I hope you're able to catch my colleague Michael's video update on Sterling post the Buoy decision. So far for those who attended last week you remember that I mentioned that we had some scope for an inverse in shoulders so this trend line is holding together quite remarkably so we came down to those new 3-week lows in cable but we bounced off this same trend line trying to just get it clear to look at but you can see it's holding up quite well. Basically it extended right shoulder in this inverse hidden shoulders pattern so the fundamentally with certainly a bit more of a sledgehammer than the many were expecting they kind of doubled down on the cheap financing for banks to make loans and more QE than the most expected. I didn't expect any QE and so the fact there was over that 60 billion a month in new asset purchases including corporate bonds is certainly above and beyond the core and so that fundamentally is pretty negative for Sterling so it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see it come and test down those Brexit lows around 128 like I said at the moment this is a possible formation where this would be the kind of simple breakout from here but this is becoming an extended right shoulder so feasible certainly still that we get a rally up to 134 would probably be about where you see the neckline at the moment. Oh got a question on copper, yeah I'll jump across to that. Question being on high grade I mean we just have the one copper contract we've obviously got futures interpretations of it but in terms of the cash variant this is really the only one that I follow and you can see that we've basically had a series of false breaks through the sort of 205 type level failed to get beneath 200 and we're right up towards the top of the range we got up towards the top of the range before faltering right into the middle and so I'm looking at this as a very trendless market at the moment and this is one of the kind of least lower probability trades is to buy or sell in the middle of a trading range and I know it's choppy but to my mind this is sort of 205 to 220 trading range and so given the fact that we're right in the middle at 215 I mean it could go up, it could go down from here there is no real obvious trend to my mind that said we're above the 200 day moving average but it hasn't helped on these previous occasions has it so the moving averages they only help when they're trending in the right direction we're above the 200 day moving average but the 200 day moving average is actually sloping downwards so if we are in a bottoming process it's still taking place it hasn't happened yet so that said it's a pretty good support down from this previous low because we obviously have these string of highs we had that big drop down but failed to close below there and so the sort of 210 to 11 has been really strong resistance broken and then really strong support twice and it's only going to be a shade away from the 200 day moving average so should the price drop further to there that would to be an obvious inflection point but like I said that would be trading of support but not in an uptrend just still within a longer term range which does pose some risks theoretically a busy week for the outlook for copper this week we have the Chinese data I think copper at the moment is not as closely synced with Chinese data as you might have thought and I think that's just because the Chinese data continues to underwhelm but there's a sort of a bit of a confidence that things can improve because the government is doubling down and just doing a lot of extra kind of government spending doing some deficit spending even so that hope that that kind of infrastructure spending is going to feed through particularly into the housing sector and maybe beneficial for communities so as long as we get more hawkish talk from the Chinese government I think that's generally positive should they start to reel back from that that would maybe be the reason to be worried on the downside equally we've had some very spurious kind of news about copper being used as a sort of guarantee for loans in China and so they were warehousing lots of copper using it as collateral for loans but then it turned out there wasn't actually as much copper as they said in the warehouses so that was a bit of a kind of confidence shocker and suddenly they weren't using copper as much for collateral so copper is not as useful as maybe it was in a financial sense when it was getting a good rally earlier in the year so that again is maybe a bit of a weight around its neck I'll slide back to currencies if it's alright so we looked at sterling let's have a quick look at euro against the pound so we've held this rising trend line pretty well a big bullish engulfing candlestick off the rising trend line taking us above this previous resistance taking us above the previous peak so I think generally looking quite supportive at the moment in euro sterling and again the ECB kind of unhold at the moment even though eventually down the road they might be forced to do more whereas obviously the Bank of England are in sort of easing mode so fundamentally reason for euro sterling to push higher and I would say that's still generally the short term trend at the moment it's a weak looking trend and then I think obviously the guide post for me as to whether you remain supportive of this market remain supported or not would just be this rising trend line below there and I think all bets are off then we get a drop down towards 80 again but at the moment it looks like it's looking for a challenge back of the highs around 86 last but not least dolly yen so certainly one of the better trends out there this is the weekly chart so really a nice strong downtrend to be part of but we've hit that 100 level so the question mark is does 100 call the bottom in dolly yen I think there is some scope for that we took out this I had a rising trend line off the lows here but it was only two touches they're not too much to be read from that you want three touches at least on a trend line for it to be valid but people are buying in at 101 obviously taking us above 102 signs that there is some long term buying at this big psychological 100 mark so at the moment we're range bound and we're kind of back this is a lower probability trade as we get up towards 103 but any dips down towards 101 100 again you're in a downtrend and you're buying the bottom of a downtrend but it looks like it's transitioning to a range that said should we get a push to 104 I think by the time we get there we'll be back in the vicinity of the 50 day moving average and that was good support from July 13th and July 26th so scope for a fall away from that 104 mark should get there but maybe won't be enough to be sustained drop down to the lows so that pretty much calls the 30 minute mark for today's webinar thank you all very much for attending much appreciated good luck with the trading this week see you at the same time next week Jasper signing out