 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another IR capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we are going to discuss the just concluded COP28 meeting in Dubai. In fact, I am speaking from Dubai at this point, just having completed the conference yesterday. However, as every COP or the Conference of Parties to the Climate Change Convention, the Framework Convention on Climate Change, are always very busy and very intricate negotiations take place. And each COP deals with one particular issue or the other as it happens. Of course, general objective is to implement the Framework Convention to make sure that greenhouse gas emissions are controlled and at the same time make sure that development takes place in developing countries. This is the general objectives. So, since 1962, sorry, 1992, when the Convention was adopted, the first COP was held in 1995 in Berlin. Between 1992 and 1995, most developed countries went back on their commitments made in Rio de Janeiro. So, the 1995 Conference of Parties in Berlin, which I was the Vice-Chairman, became a very important landmark because all the good news that they had given us in terms of balancing development and environment and also the provision of technology and financing for developing countries to make sure that they have sufficient resources to employ environment-friendly technologies and to establish industries. The technology was available in the West, but the cost of using environment-friendly technologies was always higher, much higher than what we would normally do if we were polluting the atmosphere. So, the idea was that developing countries will be allowed to increase their emissions for the sake of their development and at the same time make sure that the carbon dioxide emissions are reduced. So, therefore, all the commitments that was made there was that the developed countries will control their emissions and in fact, they accepted mandatory cuts on their greenhouse gas emissions. Plus, they will also pay for the kind of technology that the developing countries need for their own development. But in those three years between 1992 and 1995, developed countries changed their tune. They said in Berlin that they were not going to do anything unless the developing countries like India, China, Brazil, etc. also undertake mandatory commitments on cutting off emissions. This was the argument that they made in Berlin. This was not acceptable to us. So, we struggled very hard several days of negotiations. Finally, we were able to save the commitments of 1992 and accordingly, there was a Berlin mandate was formulated on the same basis of 1992. But when it was formulated in a Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the West openly defied it and said they will not sign the Kyoto Protocol, which was based on the Berlin mandate and the whole thing became a came into a standstill. And so some years later, it appeared that if an alternative way was not found involving developing countries also, nothing would be done in terms of economic development and protection of the environment. So, in Copenhagen, there was a meeting where the big five or six countries, including developed and developing countries, and India played a big role there at the heads of state level. And they came to the conclusion that an alternative route has to be developed. And that alternative route was to tell all the countries developed or developing. Nobody has any mandatory cuts. Everybody will make voluntary cuts and those will be reported to the UN. And the objective is that all these commitments, voluntary commitments put together, we have to ensure that the annual increase in global warming should not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. That was the objective on the basis of which all countries made their declarations to the United Nations. But when they added it all up and calculated as to what would happen if all the countries were to honour their commitments, that itself is doubtful. And not only that, and as a result, the global warming will go up to 3 degrees Celsius. So, if that happened, then there is no future for the world. But still, they persisted with that program and that is how the Paris Agreement was reached. So, the Paris Agreement, according to the Paris Agreement, we agreed it should all be voluntary. But how do you mean the 1.5 degree requirement from 3 degrees? And that became a big challenge. And so, it turned out that even the Paris Agreement was not going to be helpful or not going to be decisive because the voluntary declarations were made were not adequate. Then again, some years passed and the idea of even voluntary cuts were eliminated. But objectives of Paris Agreement are to be respected. So, now the focus is on the whether we can reach a level by which the global warming will not exceed 1.5. And what can we do about that? So, many countries were asked to find a year in which they can have zero emissions, net zero emissions. That means you may have emissions which should be balanced by other activities which would reduce the global warming. And so, the United States said that they could do it in 1930, China said they could do it in 2030, China said they could do it in 2050. And India rather reluctantly agreed to 2070. And we are moving very systematically in order to reach that objective. But the resources are not coming. But even within our own limits, we have been trying to do that even though Prime Minister has been pointing out that India is 17% of the population of the world and our emissions are less than 4%. So really, our commitment should not be that much because we are a big country and where we need emissions in order to continue that development. So, in each of these COPs, they deal with a particular issue. Earlier, it was reduction of emission generally. But since this COP was being held in an oil producing country, the idea was brought out that should be like in Glasgow, a coal was to be phased out. There was a big fight on that, whether it can be phased out or not. And so finally, the compromise was it will be phased down in the sense that we reduce, we don't phase out. So a similar exercise, the main exercise which was done in Dubai was to see whether we could work in such a way that generally the fossil fuels consumption can be phased out. And this is something like which the oil producing countries will never accept it, they had not accepted in the past. In fact, in 1995, we suggested that use of fossil fuels should be reduced. The OPEC countries that is oil producing and exporting countries walked out of the G77 meat line. And it was a crisis and G77 was without the OPEC countries. So having done that in 1995, how are they going to accept any kind of phasing out here? So till the last day, till one day before the conference was over, there was no agreement on this. The oil minister who was the presiding over the COP28 made it very clear that they were not going to do any phasing out. That's not possible, it's not practical, it's actually their survival. Without oil production, how are they going to run their nations and progress? So this discussion took place and it was no conclusion was reached till yesterday evening. And when we all left the conference premises, the closed indoor discussion were taking place. And only this morning we were told that an agreement was reached and the specific language is still not seen anywhere. But the president of the conference announced that reached an agreement which is that a transitional period will begin. It is not phasing out or phasing down or anything like that. But a transitional period which can accommodate the requirements of the OPEC countries and the other countries. And that has been not very fully explained, but he said that combined with some other steps. Like multiplying energy production through other means etc, they may be able to transition it. It's not phasing in or phasing out, but transition phase they announced. They said that by entering into a transition phase, they will make sure that there will be reduction or at least adjustment in oil production. And therefore it may be possible for them to transition from one phase to the other. The present phase is utilization of oil resources, but another phase could be anticipated, nothing more than that. That is what the agreement is all about. And the details are still coming out. The other two things they had to do was one is called a stop taking. That is after the Paris Agreement, after all the commitments are communicated. What are the steps to be taken? So as I said earlier, they studied all that and found out that those voluntary cuts were not effective. So the countries have to move on to something else. And the stop taking report which was adopted by COP28. They said that the world is not on a right track. That is the conclusion that they reached. So what do you do with the Paris Agreement objectives? If we cannot meet them, the world has no future. So this has not been resolved completely. But certainly all countries are showing respect to Paris Agreement and saying that they will try to control it. India, for example, has said that by 2017 we will be able to have zero emission provided we get resources and the technology from outside. And the third was about loss and damage to countries, small countries particularly, who have suffered heavily on account of climate change, like storms and various other damaging things which are happening to small countries which cannot accept such huge cataclysms. And so they should be compensated. This is nothing new. There is always this proposal for adaptation. In fact, some writers have been saying that there will be no question of reducing greenhouse gases effectively. And therefore the world has to sit back and brace themselves for what is happening and try to adapt yourself to the present situation. That's a kind of desperate assessment. But that is also there. And therefore a fund was to be established. And this was agreed upon in Egypt in the last COP that is COP22. The fund should be established to meet the requirements of these countries who have had loss and damage on account of climate change, which was a very good decision. But we do not know where the money will come from. Who is going to pledge? We don't know. So, in the final communique of E20C or E28C or E28, there is no mention of this, or at least we have not seen it. But some decision may have been taken, some pledging may have been made. All this will come out only after they actually conclude the calculations after the meeting and we will come to know about that. So, this was generally what happened. First and foremost, a transition period for fossil fuels, which is very difficult to accomplish. Secondly, the sad fact that we are on the right, we are not on the right track. And thirdly, how do we set up the damage fund? So, all these are still loose. There are more things to be decided. And I presume that they will all be put off until COP29. But in any case, every country was enthusiastic about what they have to do. They explained there are many things they cannot do, but they also said that whatever we could do, we would do. So, there is progress to that extent. And also, there is progress not substantially about the fuel phase out. That is fossil fuel phase out. That is the objective. But other countries will never accept that and what they will accept is a kind of, you know, dilution. And reduce the production if possible by finding alternatives. That means even other countries have to now look out for energy production by other means, not simply by fossil fuels. So, this is the situation and more details will be available as we go along. And let us hope that this will receive attention of the member states immediately or this next year or at least when the COP will be held. We do not know where COP29 will be. There were rumors that it might be in Moscow, but that is not likely to happen in the present situation. So, some other country may have to opt for it. India has opted for a conference after three or four years that was announced by the Prime Minister in Dubai. And the Prime Minister of India promised very strongly that we will fulfill the Paris agreement commitments. Only thing is we need resources and we clarify that this will be done. And in fact, in many ways, India has fulfilled our commitment as regards protection of the environment in India. COP is an annual conference to progress. There is no change in the convention. The convention remains the same. So, to follow the conventions, you need to create program of action. That is what the COP does. And then they review it next year. So, it is an annual process in which they review the implementation of the framework convention of climate change as well as later agreements. Like Euro protocol also exists, but nobody bothers about that. What we have is the Paris agreement and also later this facing out. So, these are all being reviewed annually by the parties to the convention, the conference of parties. So, 28 have finished since 1992 and many more will come. So, that is the exercise that the COP does. It is a review conference or convention. No new convention. So, we are trying to meet our own program. We are formulating our own programs to reach the targets. That we have told them how much we will be able to use. And on the basis of which we launch programs to meet the objectives. And we have done fairly well more than several others. So, in order to meet the target of the Paris agreement, we have to devise programs. And then that will be reviewed to see whether it is actually meeting the requirement as we envisage it. No, there is only one agreement, which is a joint agreement which all the participants will, over 200 countries will endorse it in one way or the other. Maybe with some doubts, but it will be generally accepted by all the delegations. And that is still to be seen because only this morning the chairman put out the text. And it may take a couple of days before that is known as to how many have accepted it.