 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week two of the NFL preseason wraps up tonight Which means we can finally start to look ahead to week number one in the NFL Most teams with just one preseason game left training camp battle starting to be routed out got some ideas Is on injuries for week one as well So we're gonna break down my thoughts on week one for today now these markets have been up for a very long time So it's not as if we're getting super super ahead of the market But there will still be movement between now and NFL week one I'll run through money lines spreads and totals my models like as of right now and get you ready for our first look at NFL For 2023 welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network My name is Jim Sonnis I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research here take a look ahead two week one the NFL for this week And get you ready outlining where I'm seeing value right now over at Fandall sports But we'll dive into all that here in just one second the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast Feed wherever you get your podcast We were here every weekday breaking down NFL MLB Whatever it may be NASCAR EPL all right here in this exact same feed will have five shows per week during NFL season Ryan Williams on Mondays and Tuesdays Dr. Ed Fang with us on Wednesdays and Thursdays and JJ Zacharyson on Friday So a fun line up every day for this year coming up on covering the spread to get those shows as they are live Subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also check us out on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV Plus for your Amazon Fire Apple TV and Roku devices Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from Fandall America's number one sports post Right now new customers can get can bet five dollars and get two hundred in bonus bets guaranteed plus all customers Who bet five dollars will get one hundred dollars off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV Now is the best time to join Fandall the app It's easy to use and you can be on everything from spreads to player props and more Fandall official partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select States Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC First online real money wager only ten and dollar first deposit required Bonus issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia call 1 800 next step protects next step to 533 for two in Arizona 188-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org says chat in Connecticut 1809 with it in Indiana 1805 2 2 2 4700 visit ksgambling health comm in Kansas 18077 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling help at Oregon Maryland or visit 1 800 gambler died at West Virginia Call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming help is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or calling 100 3 2 7 50 50 For 24 7 support in Massachusetts call 1 8 7 7 a hope and wire techs Hope and why in New York NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 918 23 no refunds terms and embargoes apply $100 off NFL Sunday ticket not YouTube TV Uptube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV Redemption requires a Google account and current from a payment commercial use excluded Now let's dive in to the NFL for week number one We'll typically be doing the first look on Tuesdays throughout this year We'll have Ryan on talks and power rankings and futures then I'll talk about my first good first look at that I'll clean week but for week one markets hadn't picked over they've been posted for a very long time and That means that we're not gonna find tons and tons of value for this week And maybe not as many inefficiencies as it would in typical week But there are still some spots where I am showing value for this week I want to dig in now kind of outline those and hopefully we can get ahead of the market in case these do want to moving Later on so sell it some spots where I'm showing value for week one at annual sports book That begins for me with this matchup in the NFC West between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams I'm gonna take the Rams plus five and a half on the road in this one The plus five and a half is currently minus 110 at Vanduul Sportsbook The Seahawks do deserve to be favored in this game But I think five and a half takes it a bit too far My model is the Rams as two point seven point underdogs in this game in large part because I'm expecting Progression out of the offense last year's disappointment. We saw the offense kind of fall apart Matthew Stafford Enter the year banged up Cooper Cup got banged up as well And the offensive line had as many injuries as you could possibly concoct and obviously those have begun this year to Joe Note boom already banged up for this team, but I Don't think this offense is going to be as bad as what it was last year given. They've had enough season to get ready Hopefully rejuvenated Sean McVeigh as well The defense a lot of change over there and a lot of new faces. They do still have Aaron Donald though So that there is at least that But it's also not as if the Seahawks on the opposing side are some fantastic defense need to fear either I have been a Geno Smith guy for a very long time I was ecstatic to see him do what he did last year the offense of infrastructure around Geno is very good between the Why receivers they've got I think the offensive line should be pretty solid once again as well So I like the Seahawks. I think that they're a pretty fun team, especially on offense But we're getting five and a half points here on a team that won the Super Bowl two years ago And still has quality coaches on offense They got a quarterback who can play very well when he's healthy And they have superstar a superstar on defense to help hopefully buoy them even if the guys around him may not be Tip top as far as talent goes so to me five and a half is just too much And I think that it does make the runs of value here So my first bet for NFL week number one this year will be to take the Rams plus five and a half over the money line Five and a half the spread instead of taking the money line of plus 194 I do show value there as well But I prefer the spread at plus five and a half for the Rams against the Seahawks in NFL week number one Second bet I like is also a spread and this one is also an underdog taken on the NFC West team That is the Pittsburgh Steelers there at home Taking on the San Francisco 49ers I like the Steelers plus three which is currently minus 115 right now at Vandalsports book And obviously you're paying a price to get that push on a field goal at minus 115 But I do think it is a worthwhile trade-off Versus taking the money line for the Steelers which is currently at plus 128 at Vandalsports book the Steelers offense Kind of was a tale of two halves last year. We're in the first half They could not run the football They had Mitch Trebisky out there for a bit and Kenny Pickett did not light the world on fire when he first began starting Second half of the year though. They were a lot different I think that it was some sort of scheme change specifically that keyed off their rushing offense It was a lot better looking the second half of the year that it was the first half So the rushing offense is one thing and obviously it's not gonna be a major factor when it comes to betting because rushing efficiency is not as important as passing efficiency But the other key thing the other key difference for the Steelers in the second half was that they were a lot better at Moving the sticks on third and fourth down and I'm talking about this from a success rate perspective Their success rate on third and fourth down was effectively night and day different in the second half of the year than what it was in the first half Now, maybe that means they were playing over their heads and will regress this year but I think that by looking at success rate we're taking out at least some of the Variance some of the randomness that can occur on later downs The passing efficiency early downs could dig it better as well of a slight uptick there But the bigger gains were in the rushing efficiency and the late down success rate They're facing the 49ers here obviously a very tough team, but we still have not seen Brock Purdy yet in the preseason That's he he's coming back off of Elbow surgery so at least some volatility on this the 49ers offense as well My model loves 49ers defense actually has them projected to be the league's best defense this year But the Steelers also rank inside the top five there Given how good they were once TJ Watt came back from injury in the second half last year So it is a lot of projection based on how the Steelers play in the second half in 2022 both an offense and on defense But I think that that is going to be our most relevant sample for a team with a rookie quarterback And with a stoop a superstar defensive player who did miss a large part of the first half of the year Steelers are at home here I agree with the model that taking the three points is the right way to play this versus taking the money line at plus 128 I want that cushion to get a field goal and a game that does project to be pretty low scoring It's at 40 and a half right now the total I've got it a bit higher than that about 41.9 I believe but I do still expect a pretty low scoring game here So I'll take the Steelers plus three at minus 115 taking on the 49ers in week number one The one money line I like for week number one is actually in the Monday night football game between the Jets and the bills the Jets right now Are plus 106 at Fandall Sportsbook and I do show value there And if you put this game on a neutral field I'd have the bills favorite because the bills are the better team by my model for this year They're actually still the third ranked team my power rankings for this year So my model likes the bills, but it also does like the Jets And I actually once you account for home field have the Jets as slight favorites in this game So the money line of plus 106 to me is pretty attractive Not only are the Jets adding Aaron Rodgers to the offense, but they also Get key contributors back on defense and that defense obviously had very good injury luck last year We're looking at just one game So injury regression luck doesn't matter as much for a single game as it does for the full season And they also had bad luck in the turnover department So I've been projected to rank sixth in defensive efficiency this year because expecting regression for what they did last year as far as health goes But they finished second last year in number fires schedule adjusted defense despite the fact they had bad turnover luck This is a very good defense and the bills are too, but I think that when you add Aaron Rodgers to a top five or so defense That's probably gonna be a pretty good team now the big downside of the Jets is that offensive line It's been a talking point off through our training camp, but Mackay back didn't play pretty well in preseason week, too There are I think hopes now that he can potentially be going to start our right tackle Dwayne Brown Should potentially be back for week one if he can get healthy as well So if you put Dwayne Brown at left tackle Mackay back to net right tackle This could wind up being a pretty decent offensive line So my model again does still have the bills as a better team in this matchup But the Jets are at home I think that this offense could be very good to their and Rodgers and I think that this defense is going to be great Once again as well, so if you gave me plus 106 on the Jets money line I will take that and take the Jets against the bills for Monday night football The one total I liked for this week And I want to mention first that the my total model is a bit newer something I developed Down the stretch run of last year It did not test as well as the spread model as a money line model It was still profitable if I just bet everything that it showed value on but the ROI on that was lower So I want to make that very clear my level of confidence in the total model is lower than it is with the spreads and money line so let's stick to just one total for this week and Hopefully it performs well. We can talk more about totals later on but I'm gonna tread lightly a bit here the one where I'm the furthest off in the market is in the Dolphins versus Chargers game That total right now is 50 and a half and the under is minus 115 Now you're paying minus 115 on the under because you're getting under a key number of 51 So maybe this number could move at some point But I still think I want to take the under here under 50 and a half at minus 115 And I do understand why the total here is quite high because the indoor game There can be some wind that leaks through at at so far So it's not a true true like indoor game But it's effectively an indoor game with a couple of offenses that that can put up a lot of points But both of these defenses had the potential to be awesome this year He would know Jalen Ramsey on the on the the dolphins I'm still expecting these two defenses to both be very good this year The pace in this game projects to be okay a bit below average and large for because the dolphins were so slow last year Even in the games where two a tongue of a loco is healthy and now Maybe they want to keep them healthier and sure that we don't have a recurrence of what happened last year With the concussion issues. I would not be shocked that would happen Now the Chargers do get enough tick and pace potentially with Kellen Moore But they were also pretty fast last year So even if they are faster with more than they were last year under Joe Lombardi They're probably not going to be a major major difference in that regard the easiest path to Having the over hitting this game is having Tyreek Hill Jalen Waddle and Justin Herbert rip off these big plays and that could very well happen because all those guys are talented Capable of generating big plays. I'd expect the Chargers to take more deep shots this year Which can lead to overs as well But if you think about the like the backbone of these two defenses, it is preventing those big plays That's why these this defense became in vogue when it did is because we were having all these big plays and The Vic Fangio style of defense said we don't really want any of that So The path to it over is big plays, but the defense has emphasized stopping those So I agree with my model here that the under is the way to go again Not as much confidence in the model with this one As I do have for spreads and totals, but I do agree with what it's saying directionally On this one that we should see an under for dolphins and chargers. So the four bets I like right now for NFL week number one I like the rams plus five and a half minus 110 against the seahawks the Steelers plus three and minus 115 Taking on the 49ers the Jets money line of plus one to six against the bills and chargers dolphins under 50 and a half Which is minus 115 over at vandal sportsbook We're going to talk more week one obviously as we get closer to it We'll talk week one specifically in our first look with ryan williams coming up that tuesday week one and then on thursday We'll have our full preview with dr. Ed fang as well to get you ready for NFL week one for now that we got to go back to last week and recap the recommendations for the weekly sports here on the show Beginning with the women's world cup dr. Ed fang was our guest there duck women's world cup throughout the entire event You can find ed on twitter at the power rank and check them out at the power rank dot com We had talked about looking ahead to a spain england final But this is before the semi-final so it wasn't set in stone that would be the case Ed said he was hoping spain Would advance and be an underdog in that game and if that were to happen He'd be on spain in the money line to lift the cup But once the matchup was set it was actually booked as a toss up So you saw spain, you know minus 110 minus 115 minus 120 in that range So i don't believe we ever got spain at plus money So strictly based on that probably didn't get a bet off for the final but spain did win anyway 1-0 so Had a good time talking to that about the women's world cup the entire year had a blast for that and Next time we talked ed is on wednesday talking week zero in college football Which is wild to be there already that'll be with us on wednesday for the show talking to ed Our epl guest was austin cast check him out on twitter at austin cast He of course is a senior editor for us here at band of research austin went two and oh For the second consecutive week in the epl side of things First game was knotting in forest to win at minus 110 in 90 minutes plus stoppage time They were tied one one late in the match and i thought they were gonna draw So i actually stopped watching it in the 74th minute But knotting in forest had a late sub and they scored in the 87th minute to win it and they did cast ticket at minus 110 They won that match two to one second bet for austin was on sunday He had astin villa over one and a half goals at minus 130 and that that actually had been 24th minutes So no drama no intrigue there. They were up two nil then They scored four total goals and won that that match for nothing So austin four and oh so far this year On the epl side of things he'll be back with us on thursday to talk about match week number three We had austin swaymont to cover uh, usc 292 check out austin on twitter at a swing three headliner here with shana mallie taking on algema in sterling austin had the fight Ending in round one two or three which was minus 112 at fangirl sports But you know mallie won that match in round number two so that bet hit And a good call by austin on that one and picking that specific market given that Wasn't super i know mallie, but hey that bet hits regardless of the route to doing so For the other title fight austin liked amanda lamehosh to win at plus 250 that fight went the distance so At least a good call in terms in regards to that match being pretty tough But jungway lay did win by unanimous decision there So no money line for amanda lamehosh other two money lines were neil magnia plus 370 and andrea lee At plus 270 both those fights also went the distance But it was the favorites who won in both those as for props awesome Like gregor rodríguez to win by submission around one at plus 316 rodríguez did win around one but it was by knockout so Didn't get that one there. He had said rodríguez might emphasize scrapplings trying to get back to his roots But he didn't need to because he won by knockout pretty much right away Final one was marlon vera by knockout or submission at plus 340 vera did win But it was by decision instead of by knockout or submission So we'll get awesome back on toxin usc again in the very near future Check him out on twitter at a 23 you can find the ufc daily fantasy podcast on the number fire daily fantasy podcast fee My bets on the nascar side of things were frustrating on saturday I had austin hill to win the extended series race at 22 to 1 and hill Definitely had the second best car for that race ty Gibbs was better But austin hill was pretty firmly number two They had a restart with two laps left with Gibbs and hill on the front row And I felt pretty good about it that time. I didn't think he'd win but like, you know, isn't good position But on the restart sam mayer was on the second row He wheel hopped going to turn one got into Gibbs Gibbs spawn and hill got caught up in the spin I don't think that hill would have beaten Gibbs without a spin So it kind of was lucky in that regard, but unlucky that hill was involved I also did have hill to finish top five elsewhere. So I finished 14th because of the spin Really bothered me. So I'm not sure if I should have won the outright I think that Gibbs should have won that but the top five bet missing out on that was pretty frustrating for sure On sunday, I had ross chastain top 10 at plus 195 and austin dillon top 10 at six to one Chastain never super super competitive ran the bottom half of the top the top 20 or the Latins all day that was kind of a bummer Dillon though was running 11th for all stage one He finished 10th at the end of stage two But then there was a late caution that put him in a bad spot So He was running the high teens toward the end of the race But then got in the tussle with kyle larson on the last lap and he finished 31st So overall disappointing week. I think the hill and dillon bets were pretty good But they did not pan out So to get close in 22 to 1 and 6 to 1 have a good read on those felt good about but not the best results there We are on to daytona coming up this week from the nascar side of things likely discussing that on thursday For this week to get you ready for xfinity and cup series out in daytona as far as today goes That's all we got on covering the spread back with you once again tomorrow probably talking some baseball I would guess given it is a tuesday have a lot of games over there So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Check us out on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus as well If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fandal research at fandal research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across baseball Whatever it may be for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for more This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network