 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 13th of September 2019 and the time has just gone at 9 to 55 for the summer time It's been a fairly muted start to the European trading session markets are we're slightly a bit mixed We're looking at some European market is slightly down so I'm slightly higher But overall it's a fairly kind of muted a pretty good a pretty quiet begin beginning to the trading week overnight we had some Better than expected manufacturing numbers out of China both the official Chinese manufacturing PMI report and the Kaishin survey of Chinese manufacturing both come in better expected Although the grand scheme of things they're not too healthy But the US China trades to a she remains very much in focus Looking at kind of towards looking at looking back at some of the developments you heard last week on one hand The US and China are due to meet next week to continue on trade negotiations, which is a positive step forward But at the same time going in the last few days we heard from the Trump administration Who are considering kind of putting more pressure on US companies that operate in China? They're considering delisting Chinese companies are listed on US exchanges. They're also contemplating stemming American investment in China via page info. So it's the usual back and forth scenario in relation to the in relation to the US China transformation on the political front They could if you know the kind of The impeachment inquiry in the present Trump is likely to hang around for a while and while that continues to hang around That's likely going to get a cap. So I got a key pressure on US stocks or else going to cap any gains from those On the political front in relation to Brexit over the weekend We've heard from Arlene Foster at the head of the Democratic Union disparity I said she said she would be open to the idea or at least consider the idea of a time limit on the backstop But that's the sort of thing which could be enough with the room to potentially avoid a no-deal scenario and move the talks forward but As we found out in recent weeks the back and forth you've seen in the in the US China transformation is also very similar to back and forth You've seen in relation to Brexit. So What can be seen as a step forward in the brexit elements very frightening within a matter of within a matter of hours That could become quickly old news and they and the dollar could be pushed in a different direction But we've also seen fairly low volatility in currency markets as well I take a look now at the weekend article I would take a look at the weeks major events and then I've run through the major the major markets, so the weekend article can be found on a website if you go to cmcmarkets.com and under insights that are news analysis You'll find the majority of the articles by myself at the analyst produce are posted here I've talked about the talked about the The PMI numbers coming out of China over weekend Looking head to tomorrow. We've never actually PMI numbers find reading from countries like France And Germany that's gonna be a political war because the flash reading for the German figures were the weakest in a decade So really good to show you how bad the things are over in Germany to the manufacturing The Reserve Bank of Australia have a meeting of the early hours of Tuesday morning UK time And if you know if you're looking at that kind of if you're looking up about the markets of pricing in city pricing in Interest rate cost is cutting rates down to zero points at five percent On Thursday, we have first half figures from Tesco here in the UK. We on Wednesday We have third quarter figures from Ford motor on Thursday. We have the Global maybe the series of P services PMI reports This will be the final reading of the various different service PMI readings keep an eye up on what was going on over in France and Germany On Thursday, we have first half figures from Ted Baker the UK fashion house on Thursday We have third quarter figures from PepsiCo on a Friday the all-important non farm payoffs from the US It's our could be the most important economic update of the entire month Keep an eye if it's almost we've almost gotten to the point whereby the actual headline figure Of the unemployment rate is kind of taking a bit of a backseat to the ash to the to the wages component Wages, you know, essentially if American workers are in jobs and they continue to earn decent wages You'd imagine they'll be translated out into higher spending We're actually hosting a my colleague like that Houston is hosting a live event on the day of non farm payrolls Feel free to sign up for that if you go to our website seems your markets calm under insights and under learn You'll see webinars and events and it can be something sign up for here on the October the 4th non-farm payrolls live coverage That would be live coverage of the numbers itself and also reaction to the numbers and talking about What potential price actually we could see on the back of the update So as promised, I'll take a look now at some of the major markets starting off the footsie 100 See what's going on on the footsie. Like I said, it's been a fairly muted start to European stock this morning You can actually see very much here what I'm talking about. We've had a decent push higher in the last few sessions But so far it's been a fairly pretty quiet day at the footsie 100 Nonetheless because a recent upward trend that's been in play Since apologies since late August is the very much in play and if you can't press on higher from here If you could hold above the 7,000 program arc, we could be looking at retesting this zone here in around 7,400 and 70 Any move to the downside could find this board from this this line here, which is the water day moving average and that comes to play 7346 and even if you do have a fairly sizable Move to the downside support could be found for this red line here Which is the 200 move the average and that comes to play at 72 33 And we can see in a few occasions that metric active friendly support And if a metric is actually in support in the past it makes it more likely it will do so in the future But obviously there are no guarantees So I'll take a look now. What's going on over in Germany in the DAX Simplest situation whereby the the push are we seen in in the German equity market since late since late August is It's not very much in tact fairly We did have a fairly sizable sell-off last week But but the market is is recovering and if you continue to hold around this zone here on 12,300 you can look at retesting the recent highs here in around this will just shy just shy of 12,500 and should we take it should we take out that think of this is old here We could then be looking at heading up towards the highs of late July in around 12,600 and a movie on that could take us up towards the highs of early July in around 12,655 if you do see a fairly decent Move move to the downside we could see support commit the place this blue line here The fifth we will be average and that comes to play at 12,040 and we can see in a few occasions that metric active as support and resistance not too long ago I like I said the metric has been important past it makes it more likely it would be so it'd be important in the future And I'll take a look at the US markets and be fair there are better shape than their European counterparts So starting off with the without Jones so Very since third similar situation Compared with it at 200 and the DAX the markets and the pushy higher since Since date August now the highs that were achieved in mid September failed to take out the all-time highs But still the market is still very much in a subword trend very much word at the last That's a about 10 days or two weeks market has been has been kind of edging lower But we're still constantly above its 50 moving average here And while we hold above that metric, it's likely that we could retest recent highs you can head back up for this zone here in around 27,000 sorry apologies yeah in around 27,300 and if you go beyond that you can be like you're targeting 27,400 If you do see a bit of a continuation and kind of dip The negative move we see the last couple of weeks We could be like he had you back down towards blue line here the 50 moving average and that comes to play at 26,551 Take a look now. What's going on on the S&P 500 As you can see that the chart looks fairly similar Markets be pushing higher since late August the highs mid September failed to take out the highs Well, the all-time highs that were achieved in late July But nonetheless the market is still in its upward trend If you could it did to hold above this blue line here the 50 moving average at 2946 it's likely we could see the Continuation of the wider of portraying to be so we could be looking at retesting 3,000 or heading toward the 3,000 3,022 if you do move to the downside and We could be support could come back into play in around this blue line here the 50 moving average at 2946 and even if you do have a Affinity decent move below that we could be like he had you back down toward this is old here in around 2900 we can see that region not too long ago at the beginning of the month We start to consolidate in an area in the past And it's what it makes it more likely that the metric could be important in the future I take a look now. What's going on the gold market. So we've talked about how broadly speaking You know the last few days equities of it strong or well equities remain to be in good shape The core market has been very strong Very very strong recently at the beginning about it rallied up to a This is the area here was highest level in six years We give indications how strong the gold market is and broadly speaking you have you kind of we haven't We haven't taken out The we could be broadly speaking moving to the downside of its sideways and the highs that were achieved here in late September Failed to take out the highs of early September. So this is the kind of point you begin to wonder after you had a six-year high Barclays don't move in straight line. So some pose you're going to have probably a decent enough correction Now notice here that we've had a move to the downside here And then we pushed higher and then it would be lower again. So this could be the beginning You know, this this could be the beginning of a near term downward Dear term correction, whereby we've had the low Move here at the lower low the lower high and another lower low So keep an eye out for the recent lows because we could be like you're printing a lower low. So if you take out if you take out The lows of mid-September enter on the kind of 1483 1440 82 region if you take a Take out those lows and we pop back trick of this low here 40 80 that could be a sign that we're going to lose for the ground So I could take us back down to where this is old here in around 15. Sorry apologies 14 53 14 53 If you might issue get back above the fifth removing ever just blue light here I would you look to retest the the late September highs of it around This here here in at 14. So apologies 15 15 35 We can I be looking at retesting the 60 multi-prime is our cheat at beginning the month in around 15 57 Take a look. No, what's going on at all starting off a print So it seems all a lot of volatility in the oil market in recent weeks between the Drone the drone strike on a Saudi Arabia and all production over and all fields and all sites Subsequent those of them Saudi Arabia that things are getting back online soon and expected I don't see the kind of US China trades back as Probably you know, but we're gonna resurface concerns about the health of the global economy And if the global economy slowed down chances that that demand for oil will be softer, too So one of the kind of common bits about Gaps on charts is that that gaps are always filled to not always filled but they are often filled And if you saw a pretty large gap being created here at the back of the attack on the Saudi Arabian All sites and notice how I'll the vast majority of that gap has been refilled. I haven't kind of quite Essentially got right almost right back to think that that gap being filled. This might be the point whereby We could look to see more kind of the wide more recent Broader trend from early August looked to kind of push it higher So we could look to kind of refill all this gap here, which is essentially Essentially got right now to now I think it hold above the recent lows in around kind of you know, 60 spot 81 They told about that level and we got back above hold above the fifth movie average in our 61 spot 48 we could be looking kind of pushing on higher again We could look you're heading back towards 63 or perhaps up the up towards majority movie average at 64 spot 51 If the other hand if you continue the kind of recent downward trend that we've been it for basically two weeks You could be looking heading back down towards kind of psychology important 60 bucks per barrel And if you go below that we're gonna be looking can you back down towards? the early August loads of inner you know inner sub $57 per barrel on Brent to be very similar situation here on On WTI we can see here that we had a large gap was created on the charts on the back of the All the attack in Saudi Arabia. We can see here that the that the cap has been fully filled so When I come at decision point is this point whereby the recent downward trend that's been in place continues And if you do see a lot of break bits below the recent low here Do we head back down towards the kind of 54 zone potentially down towards 53 or is the point whereby? The gap has been filled because more brought the more recent slightly wider bullish trend from Early August this line this this this trend here of what I thought about if should that continue I think due to the present higher from here. We could be looking heading back up towards 58 And then beyond that we could be looking at talking about a heading back before this is over here in 59 spot 53 coming up now under the currency markets starting off with you know dollar So we saw further pressure on the euro versus the green back on Friday just gone So look at look at the kind of solid downward trend that we've been in The lows that we that we saw on Friday really kind of sums up the weakness in the euro versus the US dollar it is we're pointing out that That we did see some decent support for this zone here in around one spot only in 26 Now the market did trade below on Friday, but it managed to close above it But still look at this tower trend here. So the downward trend is not very much in play And if the wider downwards of the market that is to turn over itself yet again We could really carry back down towards one or nine or possibly even out towards one away If you do have a bounce back in a in euro dollar We could really get it back towards this region here It's north of 110 in a kind of 110 round 24 And if you go beyond that we could be looking any back towards this blue line here the fifth We would be average we can see how an active resistance at a couple of occasions in early August as a possibility invite active resistance In the near term and that comes in play in around one spot ten seventy five ish Coming up next and lastly the British pound versus the US dollar. It's a pound dollar. Obviously The much wider trend had been very much to the downside, but we saw fairly decent bounce back and so that back in Beginning of the month now the market did much impressed on higher Well beyond the fifth in a movie average here this blue line here But notice how the highs of late September failed to take out the the 126 So we have seen a bit of the ground be given back. Now. This is kind of the point. Do we could ask ourselves? Is this the point where the market trying to get above 126 and it's gonna fail I was gonna turn lower and we're gonna head back back down and retest recent lows Or is this the point where by we've had a snap back here We've only we've given back this negative move here is a as only is essentially a correction in the the move that we saw from early September until Until kind of late September if you could hold above this blue line here The fifth movie average in at once by 2262 we could look to kind of retest 124 head back up towards at the latest attempt later temper highs and look to target 126 If at the other hand we do fall back below the 50 movie average And if you do have a decent break below 122 we could they be looking at retesting the recent loads You could be heading back down towards 120 or even down as the early August low after apologies What 30 September low in around one spot 19 58 Before I go If you any comments to make in this video or any of the other videos we've made here at CMC markets Please feel free to leave review on your views. Thank you very much