 This is covering the spread part of the fandal podcast network our week of 10,000 sports here on covering the spread begins today because we are talking both the NBA and the PGA breaking down a five gain slate in the NBA for tonight and also talking the AT&T pebble Beach Pro M by bringing on Brandon Gedula to break down both those it is gonna be a big week here on covering the spread. We're talking basketball golf Hockey soccer we talked some football. We're gonna talk NASCAR all in the same week Let's dive in and get you all said for Tuesday night in the NBA and PGA This is covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonos. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Brandon Gedula, he is a senior managing editor of number fire calm We can find Brandon on Twitter at Gedula 13 branded it is time to shine because we are Current out football. We've got basketball. What you do. We got golf. What you do I know you're stoked for the new baseball season just around the corner, too. So how you do it? Yeah, I look baseball is about here March 30th, right? I've had my Calendar you actually know what the opening day is. There's no March 30th I have no idea. I Am behind on all things baseball because I've been focusing on draft stuff focusing on Rebuilding everything in NASCAR trying to bet more golf head-to-head. So just I'm I'm behind man I believe it. I believe it's March 30th is the start date and then October 1st 2027 is when the season ends Yes, your favorite actually, no it goes into November if you're for being fully honest Oh, does the regular season go to November? Well, no the the postseason will if it's if the World Series goes like seven games So, you know, I know you were joking, but also it does go longer than that. I know you said 2027, but Still regardless. I'm sure you're stoked for that. How was your royal rumble you talked about that last week? How did that go on Saturday? It's so good, you know, people call it a little bit predictable with with Cody Rose winning the rumble and The same insane bloodline storyline come into a head, but boy, you know, you couldn't done it much better So I think they're doing a great job. I understood every word you just said. Absolutely. No notes. No questions No feedback. I do understand the NBA a little bit more than the WWE Which is not saying a lot and definitely not an endorsement of my NBA knowledge We're gonna dive in to tonight's NBA slate after that we'll go into the AT&T Pebble Beach program and get Brandon's thoughts on both of those based on the odds at Fanduels sportsbook before that That way quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast our first look at Superbowl 57 is up broke down a money line that I like in that game over at Fanduels sportsbook Talked about the total a bit talked about the spread adjustments I'm making for the chief's injuries and stuff like that That is up now on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the Fanduels YouTube page get that there but also make sure you subscribe because Within the a stuff and HL we're doing this week You'll want to get these as they're posted to make sure you get it before Oz moves So I'd recommend he's described on covering the spread podcast feed and also over on the Fanduels YouTube page this year The only app you need at your Superbowl party is Fanduels America's number one sportsbook download Fanduels now so you can get Superbowl 57 with a no sweat first bet You'll get up to three thousand dollars back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win Fanduels lets you bet on everything from the money line to point spreads to who will score touchdown all in a top rated Sportsbook app that is safe secure and super easy to use best of all you can get paid your winnings instantly So join Fanduels today to claim your no sweat first bet on Superbowl 57 Make every moment more a Fanduels official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus said president select states first online A real money wager only ten dollar deposit required a refund issued is not withdrawal bonus bets that expired 14 days restrictions applies to terms at Fanduels comm slash sportsbook gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit Fanduels comm slash RG In Arizona 1-800 next step or text next to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Kansas NY oming 1-100-522-4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help dot org In New York 1-877-8 open wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler net Let's dig in now to tonight's NBA slate and Brandon I come more so from a DFS perspective on this because that's where most of my Work with the NBA has been and I know that around February as we're in January 31st right now Things can get kind of wonky with the trade deadline the all-star break coming up Does that translate betting as well where we should alter the way we approach things be more cautious with our bets Alter our bankroll stuff like that or is it more status quo on that side when it's not a player level thing? Yeah, I mean I think being cautious with your bets is always Good news if you if you you know approach it from that perspective and really only You know place a bet that you feel great about that's why a big part of you know what I do is I You know, I've talked about like my process for betting NBA Questionable tags are the worst Because that's information that I don't have and though to make We can make educated guesses and we can kind of think through but One of my favorite parts about the NBA is just the fact that Even on a night like tonight if there's a game or two that's you know impacted by a questionable tag There are other ways to go But I think that is very very crucial, but yeah I mean as far as like the the trade deadline itself and like player transactions, obviously a Move for a key player is going to impact one team. Well, two, you know two teams in that regard and You know, there's there's gonna be some time some downtime Where players you've got traded are not going to be active and if you're just looking at For like full season numbers or you know something that I reference a lot like past 10 games numbers like You're gonna be you're gonna have gaps right in your sample and in your data So that is very very impactful that being said this season Like we could kind of see a lot of moves because everything's super clustered. I went back Yeah, if you just take a look at the standings, it'll feel like everything's like pretty pretty clustered But I went back into the number fire database and entering February this year, which I know it's We're technically still in January, but you know just to make it simple entering February only nine teams have a 70% chance to make the playoffs according to number fires model the prior decade We've averaged about 13.9 at this point in the season Currently 21 teams have at least a 40% chance to reach the postseason, which is up from 17 over the past decade So like more teams are in the mix but not like solidified yet So we could see a lot of extra shaking up here from teams that are on the fringe And there aren't that many teams that are you know out there Dominating the standings looking to to sort of be the one piece away anything like that now We have already seen like the Lakers. I think there's only really been two trades Probably the most notable one is the Lakers making that deal for a Rui Hachimura, but they could still be in the trade market And it's not even just trades like its motivation at this point I went back to to look at you know pre deadline and post deadline correlation between like team numbers last year the correlation between a team's Pre deadline offensive rating and post deadline was point six one, which is like it's not Solid it's not one right For defensive rating it's point five five for net it's point six eight So like pretty solid there, but you know that that that what that tells us is like It's more like that a good team is gonna sort of stay good or bad teams gonna stay bad But then it's not like a super super strong correlation of like point nine or something where there's no shift So I think it really is something that we need to be very very mindful of Whether there a team does make a trade or doesn't We're gonna have to watch motivation. We're gonna have to watch the rotation So I think for me to sum it all up. I'm looking at lineups every single day Yeah, and putting that into the into the my model So I'm not really gonna change a whole lot. Maybe I'll be a little bit more cautious in the days leading up to the deadline But sure. Um, yeah, it's it's gonna be a spot where whatever your process is you got to make sure that you're updating for you know these different Different rotations that teams might actually be able to put on the floor right and you were talking about the information aspect of it And like there are a lot of people who can make quality bets based on information if they have you know If they have that information, we don't we are numbers people. We don't have that information So if you have that information sick, you know fire away do your best We don't have that so we're not gonna operate that way We're talking about the way we operate and we're not gonna have the information before Most people do so I think that it's always important to tailor towards what your strengths are and to know that for sure And also kind of what you're saying, too It's better to make it to to not make a bet than make a bet you regret So I think that kind of the null hypothesis should kind of be I'm not gonna make a bet here And if you can find different information to reject then I'll hypothesis this week go for it But you won't always get to that point. Yeah, let's shift our focus here specifically to Tuesday Now we got a couple of naturally televised games on TNT the first one Lakers and Nicks That's kind of fun got some playoff implications there We also the pelicans and nuggets later on looking at those two games specifically Brandon People want to watch those games wants an action in the line. Are there any bets? You see as being good values in those two So the Lakers played last night Against the Nets lost by 17 So we're not gonna get a great read on their injury status officially until later in the day That's just typically how that works But LeBron James whenever we do get an official injury report. He's gonna I would assume appear as questionable Didn't play Against the Nets now according to head coach starving ham This might be a little bit of a different situation for LeBron. He's dealing with quote significant soreness With his foot. So I don't think it's necessarily a given that you see LeBron is questionable And like he just plays or is a hundred percent Anthony Davis didn't play last night either, but we're probably likely to get him back again Just dealing with my assumptions on any any information beyond that For the Nicks Mitchell Robinson's out and that's kind of relevant He's not like, you know people who better play DFS are gonna know that name If you're just kind of winding into NBA because you know bet the NFL and you're kind of like, you know Giving things a shot. He's a really impactful player the Nicks They're they're offensive rating actually drops 8.2 points when he's off the floor compared to what it is when he's on the floor Their defensive rating climbs 1.8 points. So it's like a net net of 10 points per 100 possession. So that's pretty relevant. I Also don't like I look at like home road stuff Just to kind of get a feel for teams because I think home road in the NBA with with how travel works and like motivation and prep Is kind of relevant, but the Nicks at home are just 12 and 13 Covered in 37 and a half percent of their games. That's despite an opponent adjusted net rating of plus 1.4 So kind of interesting there, but overall What I'm seeing is that the total has dropped like six or seven points depending on you know Where you're looking I would assume that means no LeBron if I'm kind of reading reading the tea leaves there My model thinks the Nicks should be favored by 3.4 instead of 2 if LeBron plays and by 4.9 if LeBron's out Which sounds kind of small But that's assuming that Anthony Davis is playing and so, you know, it's it's kind of reasonable there without both They're really bad, but that kind of helps out Then I'm also seeing the value on the over now that it's dropped so much It was 230 and a half before we clicked record I have it around 235 worth or without LeBron because either their offense gets better or their defense gets worse Yeah, that spread is not three and a half. So, okay, legitimately right where you have it 3.4, right? Yeah, so they they convene to you which is always a good feeling at least but If it doesn't lead to a bet you said over 230 and a half because you had 235 there That's assuming LeBron does not play on your end It's either because with the Lakers It's basically their offense is either good or the defense is worse. It's kind of balances out there Okay, and it's dropped a ton. So, okay. Yeah, 235 and a half Maybe you want to keep an eye on that see if it drops more potentially With the way the market said moved maybe you can get more there But keeping on that see where the inflection point is to see if it will move any more beyond that What about pelicans and nuggets right now nuggets six and a half point favorites total that game is 233 and a half anything you like there Yes, so Jim all worries questionable I feel like a lot of these you know prime time games to be and I think it's a good I think it's good. Since we started doing this. I'm realizing like, you know, this is these are typically games from like, okay Key questionable tags. I'm not really gonna look that much into it until later in the day and sort of figured out from there but it's like a good exercise because it's important to to be reactive to Key players being in or out of the lineup Denver's a plus six point four for with him versus without Jamal Murray So another potential big mover, but as long as they have Nikol Jokic It's really not a huge issue statistically like he's obviously the much bigger impact on for the pelicans Zion Williamson remains alts Brandon Ingram returned recently played two games But he was limited 25 and 28 minutes rested on a back-to-back after his most recent game Hasn't really been up to speed exactly. So that's like a hard one to adjust for I would probably manually bump them down a little bit Because I'm not assuming like a full minutes workload for him but Denver Pretty dominant overall obviously, but especially at home 22 and 4 with the league best plus 11 adjusted net rating 61 and a half percent cover rate Notably their games fall like three point two points shy of their implied team total at home So basically kind of one of those situations where if I see something like that I'm thinking they're consistently overrated at home offensively sure Or there's blown teams out and either way But so I think I think stuff like that is somewhat relevant whenever you see such a big number there But for me, I have Denver by seven and a half and a total of two thirty two and a half Pretty spot-on if Murray's out if he plays then Like I'm seeing I'm seeing value on Denver now that it's back down to I guess not back down I don't know if it started a six and a half or anything, but if it's six and a half I would kind of be okay taking Denver minus six and a half there The over it's not like more of a lean for you than like some of you're like rushing it back, correct Yeah, it's it's if I if I'm like within one point of something and I'm within one point of the the total now where I would technically We'd be under but you know, it's one of those spots where look like I see it But I'm not necessarily Loving it. Yeah, so I think we got to be alright Identifying those situations and you know, maybe a smaller unit bad a partial unit bad depending on like what your personal You just want to pay for like entertainment, you know Always again do that with like just do that responsibly. Yeah, but if you are looking for something there That's where you could go but Brandon sounds like more or so for him not a ton You like in that game, so let's open up the board here We do have three other games on the board for Tuesday night in the NBA anything you like in those games So Milwaukee's hosting the the Hornets that totals climbing I had it at two 43 and a half not my model, but like now it's up to 244. Yeah, so it's it's just going up But my model likes the under okay kind of a lot which is one of the spots where I'm worried But in you know, it's a five game sample With Lamello ball Terry Rozier in Gordon Hayward, but no Kelly Ubre or Cody Martin The Hornets in that split up an offensive rating of 105.4, which is terrible Even if I open that up to just having Ubre and Martin off the floor not necessarily out of the game get more possessions But it's a similar split where the offense is just really bad You know double-digit spread could be a blowout potential situation I think this game goes under because of the Hornets inability to score with the current lineup, but I think I'm always lower on the Hornets and I'm assuming it's like a Lamello ball situation You're like people want to root for the Hornets and think they score a lot of points and they you know They can and do but statistically there there's some caveats with them. So I like the under there That's my favorite one my favorite thing outside the national TV games Yeah, like you said 244 is a total in that game under is minus 110 if you said that it's rising You know, it's another one to keep your eye on see If the market is stagnated at 244 because I could imply it could be on the verge of correcting a bit But right now 244 the number for that one anything else in the NBA before you move on to some PGA Jimmy baller's questionable. So I don't really like that heat Cavaliers game If I had to you know, if I was looking for some fun, I'd go over for clippers and bulls But those two teams really pain me. I don't love either side of that But my model does see Some value in the over the clippers offense is just really good with koala entered and Paul George both active, but I See those two teams and I just kind of I Don't like it, but the model does No, it's not say I like the under I just I don't like watching those two That's what we base it all around. All right, how much you like the teams Okay, well, I rest of the NBA for today, but we'll talk some more NBA tomorrow with Tom Vecchio Talks in NHL with him as well for today though. Let's move in to some golf We got the AT&T pebble beach pro am coming up this week And if you don't know about this event, it is a three-course setup where there are a lot of celebrities playing in the field So it can be odd I think that's why they have the three courses because celebrities can take a little bit longer golfing than the pros do Brandon, what should people know about this event before we dive into the markets here? Yes, or three courses all you know pretty short overall Which does kind of bear out in the stats we're driving distance itself is not a must If you just look at like past winners, you'll kind of see that too And doesn't so we have some like non-PGA tour guys at this point who have won numerous times Like that's weird to have Dustin Johnson as a non-PGA. I'm still used to that I also hadn't heard his name in a very long time Yeah, actually I was on the treadmill last night and flipped on like I think the 2015 Masters and I saw him and he looked Very young and I was like, oh DJ Days have changed. Yeah Another a guy did not technically see on on the feed But who's also familiar with the Custon national film Eccleston's one here five times But recent winners who were like in the field Tom Hoagie last year Nick Taylor Ted Potter Ted Potter junior spreadsheet room in her Ted Potter junior Ted Potter comma junior Ted Potter junior period. It's it's everything. Yeah Surprise is no Ted Ted Potter comma junior no period. That's the one I haven't I've seen that have you that's that's egregious I hate that But then like Jordan speeds Jimmy Walker DA points the other winners in the field. So If you're not really a huge golf fan Don't like don't There you don't you shouldn't really know any of those names other than Jordan speed. So but that goes this show You should know Tom Hoagie Tom Hoagie rules. You should know Tom Hoagie I'm gonna make that assertion now. I'm saying you should familiarize yourself with Tom Hoagie if you don't yeah, that's fair But like when you see a list of names like that who have won But also like we know like Phil and DJ one here like, you know, it's still a pretty wide open field Whenever you have a course or trio of courses in this situation where They're pretty easy overall like winning scores are around 19 under 18 under 17 under they've all been between 17 and 19 the past Five years you're gonna get a lot a lot more potential at the top of the field whenever driving distance isn't a must You're gonna see a lot more guys who aren't Eliminated from contention right away So basically this one's gonna be a bit more open than we that I like to see I Kind of like to see a tough course and then just stick with the studs so Spoiler alert that's gonna factor into my to my outright recommendations But yeah, we're looking for you know some driving accuracy if you want But really irons because of the tiny greens These are some of the smallest greens across the the three courses that we get on the PGA tour that correlates the Distrosion approach or iron play so once some irons And and some some putting that's basically what I think this one comes down to Irons we can familiarize ourselves Tom Hokey. Yeah, you know, I did one. Yeah, okay So let's take a look at the markets right now over at Fandall sportsbook We have three co-favorites right now Jordan Spieth Matt Fitzpatrick go cats and Victor Hovland are all 11 to 1 at Fandall sportsbook speed open a 50 and obviously not a ton of interest there So he lengthened but Fitzpatrick and Hovland did too which sounds like a kind of meshes of what you were saying where More guys are able to contend which makes it tougher to back a guy at super short odds So any outrides do you like based on the current odds? Yes, so I'm gonna start my card with one of Matt Fitzpatrick and Victor Hovland I'm going to go with Fitzpatrick because my model likes him more. He's a better Just long-term golfer and I don't want to like simplify it and I don't want to talk bad about Victor Hovland who's a very fun and be very good. There you go But like long-term they're kind of kind of similar golfers at this point, but Fitzpatrick has the much better short game So kind of you know take that for for what it's worth But you know Fitzpatrick it 11 to 1 I'm actually seeing value there in the model should be 10 to 1 which is where he was when I think things opened, but He's gained a lot of distance despite that still pretty average in accuracy with 6th year last year 7th of the century tournament of champions to kick off 2023 and if you just get open up Whatever player page of preference you use you'll see a ton of great finishes Now finishes alone or not something that you should just look at you should look at the strokes game numbers whenever they're available And if you do that, you'll see a lot of good numbers for Fitzpatrick So I'm starting my betting card with one of the two between Hovland and Fitzpatrick and I'm I'm just gonna I got to decide so I'm gonna go Fitzpatrick. And if you're not you you're someone else looking at those two guys What would be the pitch for Hovland? You know, what would you need to value in order to go Hovland instead of Fitzpatrick there? honestly Like it's close enough It's just the fact that my model has Hovland a little bit worse long term once I wait I wait for like recency and field of strength But but Hovland is one of the most balanced drivers that we have on tours. We can gain distance and accuracy Just one of the best teeter green golfers on the planet if the putter gets hot like Yeah, that's a plus and I don't know for certain if this bears out of the stats But smaller greens means less chipping Like in a sense if you if you can actually hit the green like it makes sense on my head But if you're if you're if you're missing the greens in chipping, you're not probably gonna do enough here anyway So I think that'd be the case for Hovland, but for that reason I'm feeling I'm feeling good with math It's Patrick. Okay Are there any longer shots you like for this week or is it more so a week where outrides just in general are not catching your fancy It's a little bit where I'm not gonna have as many outrides as I typically do I just you know Now strangely This tournament tends to be like a multi-stroke tournament I think five straight the winners one by at least two like six of the past seven It's been at least multiple strokes But despite that I feel like there's always a lot of a lot of names that you just wouldn't necessarily be on But they're in contention. So I do think that Matt Kutcher at 37 to 1 Is very very reasonable and I think Scott Stallings at 55 to 1 on Fandalsports book also very reasonable now bear in mind even in my model These are sub 3% likely to win guys. Yeah, and so if you're new to betting golf like yeah That's a big return, but the probability is still quite low even if there's value on those I I Will pair top tens for each of those guys to help safeguard in case of a runner-up finish so that I don't come up You know With nothing if they if they do well, I don't always do that But for longer shots, I typically like to get access to that Kutcher He's really accurate and if you downplay stroke scan off the tee Which I'm not necessarily doing but I'm down playing Distance so if you just look at approach around the green and putting Kutcher's fourth in the field in in those stats over the past 50 rounds according to data golf for Stallings doesn't necessarily look like the right overall fit based on just stats But does have three top 15s here in the past six years did miss two of the past three cuts at this event But the form's good. I think the values there offer Stallings for this week Yeah, and stallings like long term is better than what the most more recent stats and say he's had a rough month or so But like long term he grades out pretty well But you mentioned the t10 bets for Kutcher and stallings Kutcher's t10 plus 360 stallings plus 490 to pair with the outright So if you want a bit more safety on those any other non-outrides catching your eye right now over a fan duel or elsewhere Yes, they're not a whole lot Posted feel like it's been a little bit slow the past couple weeks, but Brennan Todd top 10. He's plus 850 Unless he moved but forms a bit a bit up and down, but 16th year last year. He's very accurate. He's viable with the iron play You know, you can't really look at like his past top 10 rate and project it because he just plays a lot of courses That don't fit him very well. This one should be pretty good for him and then Matthew Neesmith plus 650 to top 10 65th year last year 16th and 11th as well though over the past three years top 30 in both ball striking stats So stroking off the tee and stroking approach never a bad thing I like a good plus 650 plus 850 top 10 feels Feels very fun to get access to that and then you know, it's a lot less volatile than Converting a win, especially it especially the public beach You were talking about how distance may not be super necessary this week and then gave us a card of Neesmith Todd Kutcher this all makes a lot of sense. Yeah, the mesh is very well with what you were saying earlier on. All right, that is all that we have here for today across the NBA and The PGA as mentioned, we are back once again tomorrow talking NBA and NHL with Tom Vecchio More NHL coming up later on it this week too, Austin Swain will swing by Thursday to talk that and then Austin Cass He's gonna talk EPL with us on Friday. So Loaded week Brandon. I want to thank you for kicking things off on a high note here with some NBA and PGA Good luck to you tonight on those and we'll talk to you once again here very soon All right, I'll talk to you about some DFS in a bit and then Always looking forward to breaking down the next one. I meant very soon. Very literally. Yes We'll be talking DFS for PGA here and not too long. We'll probably be talking some of the guys We just discussed on the show as well fine Brandon on Twitter. I could do a 13 You can also check out his simulations for PGA over at number fire comm and his NBA betting guides on number fire as well I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis and J. I am s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan will podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your NBA bets for Tuesday I will talk to you once again tomorrow to talk some NBA and NHL with Tom Vecchio This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network