 Well, good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us here and welcome to the first post-lunch media briefing of the World Economic Forum on Africa 2015. Welcome also to our audience watching this live online at weforum.org. Now, the purpose of this press conference is a subject which is synonymous with the work of the forum. It's also a very popular subject when it comes to the public engagement side of our work. It's always topical and it's always sure to fire debate in the countries of which we measure competitiveness. The Africa Competitiveness Report, of course, is building on the global competitiveness report which the forum produces every year. It's an opportunity to take the numbers and the data from that report and create a deeper analysis with a view of identifying areas for prioritisation and for focus in order to drive competitiveness in the region. That's enough for me to just briefly introduce my panel before asking them to make a few remarks and hopefully we'll have plenty of time for questions. First on my immediate left is Caroline Gavin, my colleague at the World Economic Forum and one of the lead authors of this report from the forum. Jennifer LeBazio, my friend, is the Principal Research Economist of the Africa Development Bank. Annabelle Bozanna is Senior Trade and Competitiveness Director at the World Bank. Carlos Colledy, Head of Middle East Africa Global Relations Secretariat of the OECD. I'm going to ask my colleague Caroline first to give us a broad overview of the report. And then I'll ask each of the other guests here to discuss their particular chapters. Those being agricultural productivity, driving a services sector and injecting African business more into regional and global value chains. Caroline, over to you. Thank you. I want to introduce Africa Competitiveness Report together with our four organisations, the African Development Bank, the World Bank and the OECD. We're not hearing you. This is the fifth Africa Competitiveness Report that brings together our four organisations, the African Development Bank, the World Bank and the OECD. Every two years we explore what needs to be done to improve Africa's competitiveness. By competitiveness we mean the set of institutions, policies and factors that determine the level of productivity of an economy. Now, this in turn will set the sustainable levels of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. Despite the very high economic growth rates that we have been seeing in the region over the past decade and more, we are seeing that competitiveness has been stagnating or even falling in some of the economies. Indeed, when we look at the sectors of the economy ranging from agriculture, manufacturing and the services sector, we are seeing that productivity has been low and even stagnating. Now, these low numbers are partly a result of ongoing weaknesses when it comes to the basic drivers of competitiveness, so institutions, both public and private, infrastructure and very critically, low levels of health and education. Now, on the other hand, we are seeing that many of the African economies are doing relatively better in the more complex areas of competitiveness, so in the goods market we have been seeing many reforms over the past years to enable a business environment as well as a labour market. One of the key messages of the report is however that shifting labour across low productive activities is not going to be the solution. Instead, two things will be needed. It will be needed to ensure the employability of the workforce and second of all to create the gainful employment opportunities that will be needed for the very rapidly growing labour force going forward. This is why in this year's report we explored jointly of what is needed to transform Africa's economies by looking at the agriculture sector, the services sector as well as the potential to leverage regional and global value chains. We have been seeing over the past decades a declining agriculture sector, both in terms of value added and employment, although it provides income still for a very significant part of the population. On the other hand we are seeing a very rapidly rising services sector, all the wild manufacturing has been remaining minimal. Now in terms of regional competitiveness we continue to see a regional divide, ranging from Mauritius being the most competitive economy at 39th place to Guinea ranking 144th. With the exception of Mauritius we are seeing that many of the middle income economies in the region have been stagnating in terms of competitiveness. Similarly we are seeing that many of the resource rich economies in the region, ranging from oil exporters to mineral exporters, are really at the bottom end of the global competitiveness ranking. On the upside we have been seeing over the past years an improvement in competitiveness, albeit from a very low base, in the low income economies in the region. So what would be needed to go forward to improve productivity in all of these sectors is to get the basics right. So again it is institutions, both public and private, it is infrastructure, the transport and ICT infrastructure, as well as very critically health and ensuring the right quality of education. In addition it will be very critical to facilitate trade and to advance regional integration. By addressing all of these basic requirements for competitiveness, really multiple gains can be reached to increase the productivity across all the sectors, agriculture services and manufacturing. I would like to hand over to Jennifer Moyo to speak about agriculture. Thank you Caroline. African Development Bank is indeed delighted to be part of this collaborative effort and to participate in this discussion today. Caroline highlighted the stagnating agriculture sector. It still remains a mainstay in Africa, counting for about 50% of employment. Indeed any agriculture development strategy has to take account of the specific nature of agriculture in Africa, which is dominated largely by small holder farmers, accounting for about 80%. We discussed several issues in the chapter, but I'll highlight just three areas here today. First the role of information communication technology, then the place of rural infrastructure. This has indeed the potential to revolutionise the agriculture sector. ICT can be used across the production cycle right from precultivation to inform choices about crop and land selection to inform choices of crop insurance. It can also be used during crop cultivation by providing information on the right amount of fertilizer and the type of fertilizer to be used, as well as providing information on crop health. It can be used during the post harvest period to be able to communicate prices to farmers and be able to enhance price discovery. Moving over to rural infrastructure, agriculture losses within Africa account for 30%. So it's imperative that these losses are stamped. And we can do this through ensuring that farm produce moves quickly from the farm to the market. And so this is through rural feeder roads connecting with national and regional road networks. In addition, it's imperative that you have storage enhanced so that the farmers can be able to get good prices within and out of season. Also within rural infrastructure, irrigation systems are key because in Africa, there's only 4% of agriculture is irrigated. This is considerably lower than other regions of the world. Research has shown that irrigation increases productivity by up to 90%. So this is imperative. Moving down to value chains, it's important that there's an integration of the farmers into the agriculture value chains both at a regional level and into global value chains, but this is an area that will be touched on further. But again, within the small holder farmers, it's imperative that they are better organized in cooperatives so that they can be able to have a bargaining power and be able to access finance. And then also once they organize, they can be able to link better with commercial farmers through outgrower schemes, which are contract farming. And so not only increasing productivity and competitiveness, but also ensuring that agriculture development is inclusive. Thank you. Annabel. Thank you very much. I'm also very pleased on behalf of the World Bank Group, to be participating in this effort to produce the African competitiveness report. The increasingly important role of services in economies across Africa is challenging long-held theories of structural transformation, which as we know for decades have basically been saying that the typical path out of poverty was increased agricultural productivity followed by growth in manufacturing. Today, however, structural transformation in Africa is proceeding along a different trajectory. In many countries across the region, services are the most rapidly growing sector, creating new jobs and economic activities, and providing critical inputs to boost productivity production in other sectors. Now services experts are also growing in Africa. While direct experts from the region remain a relatively small portion of overall experts, services play a very large indirect role as inputs into experts of primary goods and manufacturing. Now despite strong growth in the sector, the productivity of services is low. Employment of services is growing much faster than the services share of GDP. Growth in this area is in low productivity sectors such as personal and government services and not in high productivity ones such as business services or finance. As a result, the services sector is becoming increasingly relevant in the development agenda across Africa. As countries continue to seize the opportunities in the services sector, policy makers and economists need to research a number of new issues such as what are the barriers that exist to creating a more productive service sector in Africa? What are the links between a growing services sector and poverty reduction in Africa? How can the services sector make a significant impact on creating employment opportunities for Africa's rapidly growing labour force? How can services become a more dynamic export sector for Africa? Or what role can services play in developing Africa's participation in global value chains? So the World Bank Group research shows that to maximise gains from trading services, most governments in the region need to reduce direct barriers to trade in services as well as to reduce indirect barriers that result from poor regulation. Barriers to trading services often are more complicated than barriers to trading goods. For most services sectors, governments must lower trade barriers as well as enact complementary regulatory reforms to develop a more competitive services sector. These reforms are also necessary for Africa to deepen its integration into global value chains, to increase competitiveness and to achieve important social and developmental objectives. Now some African countries such as Mauritius, Senegal and Tunisia have implemented policies to create a more enabling business environment for services exports. And these countries currently enjoy experts at a much higher level of services than most other countries at their level of development. So, for instance, if we look at Mauritius, Mauritius is performing well in exports of business services, finance and transport. The same group, for example, a leader in the financial sector is a casing point. Senegal does well in business services, communications and finance. Premium Contact Centre International, a provider of call centre services, again illustrates this point. Tunisia is also doing well in communication, distribution and transport services exports. And here, for example, TTS Group, a leader in the tourism and transport sector is a good example. Now the World Bank Group is assisting countries across Africa as they seek to become more competitive in trading services. There is much to be done from investing in development and human capital, infrastructure and ICT to advising on policy reform. We are committed to helping African economies realize their potential in trading services and to ensure that the growth of services exports facilitates inclusive growth and poverty reduction. Thank you. Carlos. Yes, thank you. In the OECD we are delighted of participating again with these important partners in the publication of the African Competitiveness Report. And in this occasion, we have worked on the area of global value chains, which offered an important opportunity to African countries to better integrate the global economy. You know that the global value chains is a reflection of the current phase of globalization and reflects the fragmentation of the production. And there is increasing evidence that the effect in developing countries can be very positive. There are a number of opportunities in the global value chains that allow countries to engage in production processes with a low level of initial investment. The barriers to enter the global economy become lower with the global value chains and it provides access to capital, to technology, to global markets. Of course the question is how to favor that this integration is better and is transformed also in social outcomes. Then when you analyze the global value chains and this is what we are showing in this chapter, you see that there is a variety of policies that have an impact on how to better integrate in the global value chains. Traditionally the focus has been very much put on trade policies, investment policies, which is of course very important, but there are other elements that also matter very much. Removing barriers, physical barriers by improving infrastructures or logistics for example is something very important, but also all the barriers related to governance issues like cutting red tape for example. When talking with the private sector and yesterday we had a very interesting session on global value chains with representatives from the private sector, I have to say that the governance factors were very much underlined by the private sector. I mean where the companies want to invest in this type of production systems, they think very much in the predictability and that the soundness and the quality of the institutions matter very much. Then of course the question is how to be proactive and what governments can do to improve the participation in the global value chains. Of course this is a difficult question when we are talking about an area that is defined by multidimensionality and therefore the need of priorities, of setting priorities and what are the policies that have to be reformed. Of course the political economy of reform is something very important and when you have to prioritize you have to manage and have good governance systems to tackle the different set of policy reforms that are necessary. On that it's important to think in these governance aspects, we consider that countries have to make an effort to set strategic planning systems, to set multidimensional objectives in the different policy areas that matter. Method is very important and on this we have also to consider that the global value chains are not created by governments but it's of course the private sector to decide to invest and to engage in the system of production. On that the dialogue and the collaboration with the private sector we consider is essential but also the multilateral dialogue and collaboration between countries. There are good experiences that the transfer of good practices and the multilateral collaboration can provide countries with good examples and can be very inspirational to have an impact. Thank you. Get a quick show of hands please for those who want to ask questions. I'll get a microphone down here to the lady in the front. We'll take these four. We have plenty of time. She'll be working. Linda Ensall from Business Day. If you could just explain to me how you measure competitiveness and against what. And what happens if competitiveness doesn't improve what happens to an economy and how does South Africa fair in your table things. Caroline. We equate competitiveness very much with productivity. So we look at the drivers of productivity ranging from the more basic such as institutions, infrastructure and education to the more complex such as market efficiencies or the capacity of economies to innovate. When we look at South Africa we are seeing its ranking 56th in the ranking. It's the second most competitive economy on the continent. It does as many other African economies relatively well in the goods market also in the financial market and innovation. But it really critically needs to improve its education. So education is I think the key message of the report is education across all African economies needs to improve. Okay. Lady at the fourth row back. If you still want to ask a question. Sir, but can I just ask? Do you repeat that about South Africa being 56th? So I just missed a little bit of what you're saying. Thank you. So South Africa ranks 56th out of 144 economies in the global competitiveness index. Okay. Right. We had a couple of people at the front. Eleni Stewart. Hi, very good afternoon. I'm really concerned about your comments with regards to productivity stagnating as well as it being relatively low. Do you think that this is going to risk Africa's competitiveness on the global stage? And are we sitting in a dangerous situation? Do you think with regards to productivity? So competitiveness is for us is productivity. We equated with productivity. So one being low meaning the other being low. And yes, I think we can be concerned. On one hand, we are seeing a lot of improvements on the continent in terms of ICT, in terms of American economic stability, goods market. But again, the key message of the report really being that you need to get the basics right. So again, infrastructure, institutions and education. And those are areas that take a long time to improve. So I think now is the time to make those investments. Okay. On that one, it's an interesting question. Can you be an Afro optimist and still look at stagnating productivity across the region? Okay, moving on to Stuart. Remind us where you're from, Stuart, and are you writing for? Sure. Yes, a very good afternoon to all the panellists. I'm Stuart Lisulo, a senior business reporter for the Post Newspapers based in Lusaka, Zambia. Very interesting. I just wanted to pose a couple of questions here, Oliver. With regards to Zambia, how does one interpret how competitive Zambia is in this report? And secondly, it's common knowledge that Zambia's mining sector really is the mainstay of the country's economy. But we've seen in recent years that the agricultural sector does have an awful lot of potential. So my question really is how effectively do you think the agricultural sector is being exploited to advance Zambia's economy? Thank you. Mesa, maybe Caroline, you could talk a little bit. And Jennifer, would you perhaps offer some comments on how agriculture is being exploited? Caroline, first? Zambia ranks 96th in our ranking, and you mentioned the mining sector. I think the key message of the report is diversification. So it is on one hand raising productivity in agriculture that Jennifer will speak to. But on the other hand, it's really working on the other areas. So I think one sector is not enough, it is to raise productivity across all sectors. Okay, we're going to take a question here from the lady right at the far. Oh, sorry, Jennifer, you're going to, I keep getting distracted by your waving. We'll come to you very soon. Jennifer, agricultural productivity. On our agricultural productivity in Zambia, I would say, as you said, mining still remains a mainstay, and it's indeed key that Zambia does diversify. And I would say that more remains to be done, particularly in terms of agricultural research and development within Zambia, and also just being able to spend more on development. Because across the continent, the expenditure on research and development still remains now. So Zambia can do more on that, as well as in the areas of land tenure and reforming land systems so that the farmers are able to have a security of tenure for the land and be able to access. So more could be done in order to broaden the gains from agriculture. Great. Okay, lovely to see so many hands. Okay, what are we going to do? We're going to sweep across the room. So a lady there, a lady there, a lady there, and these two gentlemen here. Maybe we can have a human chain with a microphone. Let's start with you on the far right. Clare Biseca financial mail. You said that Africa's development was following an unusual pattern in that the manufacturing segment that the services sector was taking off and that was unexpected. Could you explain why you think that is happening and also whether that is a good or a bad thing? Thank you very much for your question. This is exactly one of the key findings of our report, which is the growth in the services sector. One of the things that we identify is that in many of the countries, this growth has been happening in some of the sectors that have the lowest productivity. As I was mentioning, personal services and government services. So I think the key message that comes out of this chapter is that governments need to exploit this opportunity by adopting reforms, both to allow for the participation of foreign direct investment in a number of services sectors, but also for strengthening the regulatory framework of these services. This presents a huge opportunity for African countries to move into services that are of higher productivity. The examples that I mentioned, for instance, in countries like Senegal or Tunisia, showed that countries in the region have already begun to take advantage of these opportunities, but again, this more needs to be done. At a broader level, this connects, of course, with the other elements that Caroline was mentioning about the need to improve human capital infrastructure and institutions, again, as key factors that will drive growth in the high productivity services sectors. OK, Lady Dan. Kim Clesi, freelance journalist for Engineering, New Zealand at the Wave. I'd just like to know, have there been any radical shifts in quite serious shifts in countries that have maybe dropped quite substantially compared to last year? And I'm sure it is online, I would imagine, now. But what are the worst-performing countries, the last five, the bottom five? Caroline. For the worst-performing countries in many of the resource-rich economies, so Guinea is closing the ranking at 144th place. We also have Angola, Mauritania and Chad. Top in Africa is Mauritius, ranking 39th, and South Africa coming in at 56th place. Any significant movements in the ranking, or trends that you've been able to discern? So we have been, so unfortunately competitiveness overall has been stagnating. We are seeing, however, on one hand, that Mauritius has rapidly improved its competitiveness over the past years. It superseded South Africa actually last year, and it's now Africa's most competitive economy in the region. OK, Lady there, right in the middle. Thank you. My name is Victoria Tafmane Rujidzo, from Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe has largely been an agro-based economy, but I've seen the mining sector also taking a centre stage. From your perspective, from your research, where does our economy stand? So Zimbabwe is ranking out of 144th to remind you, and it's very low. 124th, out of 144th, ranking very low, so there's going to be improvements needed across all areas. And again, to reiterate, it is to get the basics right. You start from the basics, institutions, infrastructure, education, and you can get very far. Sorry, just to follow up, on education, we are one of the most literate in Africa. So what do you mean we have to get our education right? I just need your guidance there. So it is education in terms of what is needed. So what does the business sector need? So you can have very high attainment rates, but it's very critically also the quality of the education, providing the skills that are needed to be a competitive economy. Great. Rattling through these questions, I've got a feeling we'll have a few more after we officially formally close, but time for two more, I'd say, gentlemen, front row. The question is really just about the drought that seems to be hitting South Africa and other parts of Africa. Now, you spoke about irrigation. Where does something like drought feed in? Because you can't really solve that kind of problem. Do you guys take that into consideration when you write your reports and how that could affect growth, especially in the agriculture sector? This is a climate change question. More just there is a bit of a drought happening. Caroline, we look quite a long way into the distance, but of course you have to take into account emerging trends. Any comments there? Again, I think Jennifer mentioned the very low irrigation on the continent. It will be very difficult to comment climate change as such, but you can definitely increase your resilience to climate change. Irrigation I think is a very low hanging fruit. Jennifer mentioned 4% of the region is irrigated, compared I believe to 35% in India and more in Asia. So I think that's one of the things that can be done within the next years. Any comments, Jennifer? Just if I say, I think it's the same point about... More irrigation required? I think we only have time for one more question, unfortunately, but our panelists will be available. We'll be right there in the third row. We've had a hand up a lot, so over to you, madam. Okay, I just... There are economies that are really doing well on the continent, countries like Mozambique, growing at 7%. I'm just trying to figure out if there is a direct link between a growing economy and competitiveness, because I don't see them mentioned in any of the top countries in terms of competitiveness, and they are the countries that are growing at regions of 7% in terms of the economy. And really, I'm looking at your report also saying, this is like deja vu. You've been saying this since 1998, so is nobody listening. A good question. So I believe there's growth and growth, so indeed we have been seeing very high growth rates over the past decade. Our message is that what we want to look at is what are the sustainable growth levels? What are the sustainability levels for prosperity? And again, here in terms of competitiveness, we're very low, so we are saying there's a difference between high economic growth but very low competitiveness, so in order to have long-term sustained growth, we need to improve competitiveness. Over a narrative, of course, there's a very good point. We've seen stagnation since 1998, but there are also bright spots. Any trends in competitiveness? Any areas where you've seen improvements over that time? Very critically in the goods market efficiency, so we are seeing that actually a lot of Sub-Saharan African economies are doing very well in doing business, so the World Bank is doing business reports very rapidly in reforming economies, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, et cetera, so those are one of the trends. We also see that over the past decade, macroeconomic stability has been improving, so these are the two main trends in terms of going up. Just to close, maybe we could offer a suggestion because we'd like to think that there is some positive progress being made. Perhaps we can all offer one example of how we've seen positive progress towards better competitiveness. Annabelle, let's start with you. If I may, I think that in the context of declining commodity prices, structural transformation will come to the forefront of the agenda of many African countries, and particularly in the area of services that is the area that we specialize in the report. The potential for African countries is very large. As I was mentioning, several African countries are already exploiting the opportunities generated by the services sector. The case of Mauritius is a very important case in point. Other African countries can also follow this route. It's important to address barriers to the growth of trading services by allowing foreign participation in the services sector as a way of bringing in innovation, know-how technology, but also to strengthen the regulatory framework in each of the services sectors. Carlos, who's been talking about on value chains. Yes, I would like to say that it's very important to work on data and improving the evidence in the sense that to advise good policies and for the countries to know what are the comparative advantages from which they can get more benefits by integrating in the value chains. We need data and evidence. We are developing the trading added value database that incorporates already more than 50 countries, only South Africa in sub-Saharan Africa, but it really allows to make a very fair assessment of what is the interaction between imports and exports in 18 industries, and then this provides very good advice to the countries on how to position themselves to take more advantage from this. Jennifer, where have you seen most progress and what would you like to see changed in the coming year? On the recovery side, I would probably say progress perhaps needs to continue to be made on research and development. We have some success stories in research and development in terms of staple food crops. We've seen developments in maize, new varieties of rice and beans, and so there's more that can be done there. ICT, I think already as a continent, it's already being used quite considerably, but more could be done. It could be harnessed later for greater competitiveness and productivity. Thank you very much. Now we have overgone our time. I think the panellys will be around for one-on-ones if you want to grab them afterwards, but thank you all very much for joining us today. Thank you online for watching. This conference is now closed.