 Welcome to the Fandall hurry up. I'm Ariel Epstein joined now by Gabe Marenzie Gabe. Happy New Year to you Happy New Year Ariel. Let's do this thing. All right So it's a big time of year right now in the NFL getting into playoff mode. However, let's look even further Who are you liking to go to the Super Bowl starting with the Kansas City Chiefs? Well, Fandall asked us to put together a six pack of NFL playoff future wagers So we figured we had to attack from a value a point of view I can't just tell you while the Baltimore Ravens are gonna win the Super Bowl and they're gonna play against the San Francisco 49ers although history does tell us that seating does matter. All right You know being the one seed of the two seed really does matter You play one less game and if you look at the recent history of the National Football League It's nothing but one seeds and two seeds that have won the Super Bowl Let's start off with the Kansas City Chiefs here. Kansas City Chiefs right now plus 450 at Fandall to win the Super Bowl Before the year started. I said the Kansas City Chiefs were gonna win the Super Bowl They were in a plus 700 plus 800 range So we didn't lose too much value if you still want to take the Kansas City Chiefs Now the thing with the Kansas City Chiefs is they're starting to play their best football Right now my home's got hurt earlier in the year and they're starting to come together right now Their offense is starting to click last year. They put up like 35 points a game This year just 28 points a game But if you notice Baltimore is like Kansas City was last year and if you remember Kansas City did not get to the Super Bowl last year now hear me out on this Lamar Jackson is awesome And he is gonna be the most valuable player. All right. That's a stone-cold luck You know what else is stone-cold luck NFL MVP's have a Super Bowl curse a big one And in fact the last nine players to win the most valuable player and play in the Super Bowl all have lost You have to go all the way back to the Curt Warner era with the St. Louis Rams at the time It's we're talking 19 years since an MVP has won the MVP in a regular season and then no won the Super Bowl as well All right, the MVP curse is real as good as Baltimore has been I'm not so sure they're gonna actually get to Miami when it's all said and done And if they don't I think it could be the Kansas City Chiefs that knock them off They're the most well-suited to knock other Ravens off and that plus 450 It puts a self in a nice hedge situation if they make it to Miami plus 450 for the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl If I know you like this next one the bills are at plus 2500 to win the AFC do you like those odds? I like the odds a lot and I listen. I'm a die-hard Buffalo Bill fan, but I'm also Not as drunk and crazy and as dumb as the dudes that are slamming each other through the parking lot Tables before these games But without being stated 25 to 1 that's a fat number when I say fat. I mean cool fat Phat baby 25 to 1 now they beat the Houston Texans this week and there's no guarantee They are gonna beat the Houston Texans But they could beat the Houston Texans then they're only two wins away from winning the AFC and you're putting yourself in a nice head situation Think of these future plays as as stocks more so than bets. All right, they're stocks It's almost like the Kentucky Derby. All right, you got 20 horses. You're not just taking one horse You're gonna take an eight to one a 12 to one You're gonna take enough plus money long shots that if one of them wins you still make money And this is an instance at how we're approaching a national football league playoffs There's no value in betting on the Baltimore Ravens. All right, and the Ravens make the Super Bowl Of course, they can but there's no value on betting on them to make the Super Bowl The Buffalo Bills provide a lot of value now if you buy into this whole defense wins championship stuff And I think that's kind of outdated a little bit You need a fine line between offense and defense the most Super Bowl champions You'll notice we're top 10 offense top 10 defense You know and you'll notice most of the teams are the number one offense and then they have an okay defense Or they have a really good defense, but their offense is average. They don't generally win You need to be top 10 in both categories and the bills are not but their defense is that good And the thing about the Buffalo Bills that I like about this value at 25 to 1 to win the AFC They've already played these teams in the AFC. I saw them play against the Baltimore Ravens last month All right, it was a close football game. It was 24 17 and the bills had the ball like the 10 yard line They just couldn't punch it in I saw the Buffalo Bills play the Patriots twice this year same thing We're talking about six point games four point games very close football games The Buffalo Bills defense will have them in every football game that they play can their offense break through their offense Got a little bit better. They got that up to about 19 points a game down the stretch They only give up 16 points a game arrow at 25 to 1 Just to win three games and I'll tell you guys let me repeat this once again We're looking at hedging opportunities as well You get the bills of 25 to 1 to win the other conference right now not the Super Bowl, but just the conference They beat Houston that's not 25 to 1 anymore. It's like 7 to 1 and hey You can put your ticket up on prop swap if you wanted at that point in time There's a lot of hedging opportunities moving forward. Let's say the Bills win against Houston 25 to 1 let's say they win again next thing You know you're going into the FC conference championship game with a 25 to 1 ticket in your back pocket that you can definitely hedge Bills are a good value pick a 25 to 1 to win the AFC Switching to the NFC. It's a pick that I really like of yours I want you to convince me to definitely go and take the Saints at plus 600 to win the Super Bowl Well, I'll do my best. I always wanted to be an attorney. So I'll pretend that you're you're on the jury Ladies and gentlemen of the jury the New Orleans Saints were clearly wronged Last year by the National Football League We're talking about a red-hot New Orleans Saint football team It somehow missed out on a buy when it was all said and done because the NFC was just that crazy This year, but the Saints are as dangerous as anybody in the NFL. They've got a chip on their shoulder They've got a Hall of Fame quarterback. They've got a future Hall of Famer wide receiver Don't look now, but Alvin Kamara starting to come alive and you know, you remember last year the Saints They lit it up earlier in the year They tore it apart Drew Brees seem to be a little bit tired when I got to the playoffs Kamara was a little bit worn out when they got to the playoffs Sean Payton is good enough that he knows how to manage his team and they're deep enough on offense that he can Manage the team. I think the Drew Brees being out for the five weeks really actually helped them All right, it helped the Saints as a whole they saw how good they could be even without Drew Brees They didn't lose a game with Teddy Bridgewater, but Drew Brees not getting any younger right now and just even mentally Psychologically and physically to be off for that amount of time I think is actually made Drew Brees and that offense more dangerous coming into the playoffs And as evidence of the fact the Saints have scored 34 more points arrow in six of their last seven football games Now the cons and the negatives with the Saints and there's not a lot of them But they're gonna have to go on the road All right, they're gonna have to deal with the Minnesota Vikings And I don't think that game is gonna be as easy as everyone make it out to be either But they're so they have to deal with the Vikings after that, you know, they're gonna be going to Green Bay They win that game They're gonna be going to Green Bay and I know everyone underestimates the Green Bay Packers But that's not an automatic win for them another con is their defense the Saints can make plays their athletic But they find themselves in a lot of crazy track me style football games And it's hard to win multiple times like that on a weekly basis Without something going against you or a call going against you and speaking of which final finally, but not the least So to speak is it's real. All right There's a saying you're not paranoid if you're right and Sean parent Sean Payton. I call him Sean paranoid Sean Sean paranoid Payton He's not crazy. Yeah, all the leagues out to get him the league is out to get him All right, the league is out to get him the National Football League hates Sean Payton they hate the New Orleans Saints They never get any calls and I got to tell you I don't have a lot of confidence They're gonna get a call against one of the league's new poster boys in Jimmy G In the playoffs but without being stated at this type of value plus 600 for the New Orleans Saints Definitely worth the play gave another quarterback in the NFC. That's pretty reliable is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers The Packers are at plus 850 to win the Super Bowl right now. Why would they be a good pick? I'm surprised the Packers aren't plus 80 80,000 to win how they even in the playoffs that did the NFL make a mistake and they allowed the Packers in because Everything I read like if you didn't watch the NFL this year Everything I read about the Packers is their average. They're terrible. They can't beat anybody Yet, you know the fact that a matter is they're a 13-win football team The fact of the matter is they have Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback Devonte Adams as a star wide receiver I don't look now, but Aaron Jones is starting to play like all the fantasy Pearl all the fantasy experts have been saying he could play like for the last couple years took Jones a little while to get here But he's a dangerous back right now the Green Bay Packers are a really dangerous football team that everybody Underestimates nobody's talking about them in this playoff tournament yet They have home field so I think the Green Bay Packers are awesome. No, it doesn't matter what I think it doesn't matter What you think all right and none of these teams have to be the best team in the league It's not the way it works You have to be better than a team that you play for three and a half hours and the Green Bay Packers only have to be better than two teams to get To Miami and the Super Bowl Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder and while many people This is where fantasy football and DFS skews people's opinions of teams Aaron Rodgers not a fancy stat anymore or at least this year in his offense and oh is Aaron Rodgers struggling I don't know if I'm a Green Bay Packer fan and I'm a Green Bay Packer You know coach I'd rather win 13 games and have Aaron Rodgers throw for 220 yards a game Then Aaron Rodgers running around Putting up highlight real numbers and you know killing the stats and losing right. They're a complete football team They're a dangerous football team and they have home field advantage as well now what I like about this and earlier I told you guys I like the Saints in the plus 600 range We get the Packers at plus 850 to win the Super Bowl If everything plays out according to the way it should the New Orleans Saints are gonna play to Green Bay Packers So in other words between the Saints and the Packers you almost have an automatic bid you hear I'm going with this you almost have an automatic bid in to the NFC conference championship game Then you even have an early hedge Opportunity if you want think about it if you got the Saints it's six to one to win the Super Bowl And you got the Packers at 850 to win the Super Bowl and they're playing San Francisco You still have enough wiggle room to actually step up and head your way out and find a way to make a profit Don't sleep on the Green Bay Packers guys. They're not gonna be easy to beat at Lambo and a plus 850 I think they're worth a look All right Gabe now, it's time to name the finalists Who do you think are going to be the two teams in the Super Bowl this year? Well before the year started there I picked the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints and I said that the Kansas City Chiefs would win the Super Bowl I Don't like I don't change my picks I know there's people out there that bet what I say and I'm not why that was then I don't mean it now I mean what I say and I say what I mean and I put my money on every one of these picks that I share With the public but with that being stated and I will have a piece of this I will have a piece of Kansas City of New Orleans and a name the finalist prop and I love the name the finalist prop over at Faddule, but You know, I've been slow to come around on this football team earlier in the year I was like the other defense is really good But how you know are they that great and I don't know and really they're like a better Buffalo the San Francisco 49ers a better version of the Buffalo bills bunch of no-name wide receivers No name running backs Jimmy G's. Okay sometimes, but is he They don't have any wide receivers They have a great freaking defense though and you know the star of the San Francisco 49ers is Kyle Shanahan You know with great coach and these these guys get hyped up too early in their careers without really ever accomplishing anything But we've seen what Kyle Shanahan can do. We saw how successfully was with the Atlanta Falcons and that offense Getting to the Super Bowl. We're seeing how successfully is right now the wide receivers and these guys are no names They're open on every damn play. They're wide open He's the best playcaller in the National Football League right now. This guy they literally have home field They don't have to leave the Bay Area before they go to Miami. I just feel as if though San Francisco We're gonna be tough to beat. I don't like giving you guys a favorite So I'm not telling you they're gonna win the conference here, but in the name that finalist prop Let's go the San Francisco 49ers against the Kansas City Chiefs Niners Chiefs Super Bowl in Miami, and we get some decent odds here at plus 600 if this comes to fruition Gabe you like Kansas City and San Francisco as the finalists in the Super Bowl with that being said There's also the prop on Fanzel that and I just I know you're a Ravenfest. So let me just throw this in here I'm not anti Ravens. They're just not not any value betting with the Ravens And as I've told you guys the MVP curse is real you can believe in it or not But as I stated the last nine MVPs International Football League to play to the Super Bowl or 0-9. All right, and I think things are gonna tighten up a little bit I think Baltimore get knocked off But wouldn't shock me at Baltimore made the Super Bowl obviously, but I'm gonna go with Kansas City to knock them off In the NFC though with the 49ers you like the most passing yards prop in the playoffs Go to the 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo Why do you like him over some of the other quarterbacks at plus 650? Well, because I think he's gonna play in three football games to be honest I take a look at my homes with this prop as well Yet now I'm sort of playing to form here ultimately Who do I really think is gonna be in the Super Bowl? I like this prop because it's part fantasy part betting, right? You're not really betting It's not like well this guy's gonna throw for more yards. Yeah, but how many games is he gonna play in? Who's he playing against? Drew Brees is the favorite for this prop But there's no value on him and they're thinking that he could play a bunch of games and he could but I don't think they're Gonna get to the Super Bowl Ultimately when it's all said and done, I think they'll probably get knocked off either in Green Bay or in Or in San Francisco So I'm not gonna take Drew Brees. I'm thinking about my homes. My home seems like the obvious one actually But there's more value with Jimmy G and then I started to think my homes in the playoffs Probably gonna play the New England Patriots. All right The New England Patriots defense is still good that game will not be a track meet Like he's not gonna throw for 380 yards against the Patriots at a playoff game then the following week Let's just say hypothetically my home's one. He would play against Baltimore could be some bad weather smash mouth I don't think Baltimore and KC would be a track meet game either Then I get to Jimmy G and plus 650 dumps it off to the running backs George Kittle racks up a bunch of yards. They're gonna be playing in nice weather They're also gonna be playing against teams that are in higher scoring games potentially. I mean look they could play against Aaron Rodgers They could play against Drew Brees. There's a lot of options for San Francisco to play in higher scoring games I find in Kansas City. I don't have a problem with taking Patrick Mahomes to win this prop But they wanted six not seven take my homes and Garapolo then all right Garapolo and my home's most passing yards in the playoffs We're just about a month away from finding out who the first Super Bowl champion of the decades going to be for game Marenzie, I'm Ariel Epstein. Happy New Year everybody