 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that is right here on the Fandall podcast network you can find covering the spread wherever you get your podcast It is a sports betting podcast taking a look at what the odds say over at Fandall sports book My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang of the powerrank.com Ed pretty exciting because we are now I think it's 12 days away from the first kind of big ish college football games of the year Oh, we're talking college football already. It's a day. How you doing? It's I'm great. I mean, it's not kind of big It's big. It's Miami, Florida. I think like a ton of expectations on Florida To see if they can really continue what they did last year, which was a little bit of a miracle a little bit of a miracle worker by Dan Mullen there and then Miami just named their quarterback today And yeah, any of the guys that that people expected. So I mean, I that's a that's a big week zero game I'm really looking forward to watching every play that or maybe maybe not the second half of Florida runs away with it But my college roommate is a big Ohio State fan So when they announced it was not Tate Martell starting just immediate laughing was was the first message that I got You know, it's a interesting interesting development there down there in Miami I heard the guy can't really throw the ball like all last year We talked about Tate Martell as the backup and goal line situation and kind of like, you know, running the ball in but You know, I mean, he was never gonna take the job from Dwayne Haskins and You know he transferred immediately when when fields came to Ohio State If he were a good thrower, they would have used him as like, you know, like they would have utilized that when he was in on those packages There was a reason he was in in specific running scenarios, right? So I don't think it's that big of a surprise But yeah, I think that that's a pretty fair assessment for sure. So that game is on the 24th That's not that far away. You can bet on that over at Fandall sports book And if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sports book and place your first bet today If you lose Fandall will give you a refund of to five hundred dollars in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER Speaking of college football. We're talking to Bud Elliott. Most of you probably know him from SB Nation And also now of the Banner Society You can follow Bud on Twitter at Bud Elliott 3 covered college football and recruiting for SB Nation and the Banner Society He's also one of the rotating hosts on podcast ain't played nobody one of the podcast listen to a lot actually both the SB Nation College football one that and the shutdown full cast to Regulars in my rotation when it comes to college football podcast We're gonna talk with bud about college football championship and playoff odds things He looks for early in the season when he's trying to find edges when it comes to bang totals and stuff like that So really, you know impactful stuff here from bud. We'll talk to him in just one second first Ed. I Got to eat some crow because last week we talked to PGA Which means we have a cover in the past to discuss It didn't really go so well for me things happen Covering the past All right, so last week you're uncovering the spread we talked about where I talked I will not tie this to you Ed I talked about Matt Coucher and how I liked him at 40 to 1 at Fandall Sportsbook to win the Northern Trust and that Number didn't move before Thursday tee times, which is kind of the first red flag And Coucher was bad He did gain 2.2 strokes an approach and he gained 1.2 strokes around the green. That's good But he also lost 2.9 off the tee and lost four strokes putting in just two rounds And it was only two rounds because dude missed a cut and it was a hundred and twenty-two golfer field Tiger withdrew so it's actually even a bit smaller than that. So not a good showing from that Coucher I don't think it was awful given that You know his off the tee play had been not that bad before then and he's Generally a plus putter and putting is pretty volatile so seeing that those are the areas where he lost strokes Make me feel a little bit better, but you know the results were not great Bob But regardless we'll keep on cracking here later on and are you a golf guy at all? I know we've only talked golf once here on the podcast, but any golf interest for you Yeah, I mean a little bit. What's the randomness in terms of like putting versus approach? so Pudding you said I talked a little bit about there was randomness and yeah It's a smaller sample and so I think that like from a predictive nature like let's say Emily Emiliano Grillo Gains strokes putting and gain strokes and approach within one week You I would have more confidence saying he will gain strokes and approach the next week Then I would saying he would gain strokes putting their different putting surfaces And you can look at putting surface splits over at fantasy national calm But I think that you know in general one thing to do when you're playing You know when you're trying to bet golf is look for guys who are due for regression whether be they've been a bad Pudder recently but are not historically a bad putter or guys who have been putting their minds out But may not be good as putters you can use puddings putting numbers as a good way to look for a regression That's kind of a deal with Kutcher because he had lost strokes putting the previous two events and finished 40th Because of that, but his approach numbers have still been good. He'd been good off the tee so I thought he was due for regression and That didn't quite happen, but in general putting numbers are just far less sticky than other ones Okay, so for me it's all about approach essentially. Yeah, Matt Kutcher had that Didn't have anything else going for him though at the northern trust So we'll chalk that one up in the lost column for covering the past But that's enough of that. Let's get to Bud Elliot once again of SB Nation find him on Twitter at Bud Elliot 3 and talk a little bit of college football. You're uncovering the spread Covering the present Let's bring Bud Elliot into Covering the spread here to talk some college football bud. I want to welcome you to the show You got a lot of stuff going over at SB Nation with the Banner Society launching so busy time of year for you How are you doing today? I'm doing well really busy time. I'm just completing my research on on most of the teams and I You know, I'm a new dad so I'm about two weeks behind where I wanted to be on that but it really wouldn't have any other way and Banner Society's been going great. We're we're focusing on creating content for people and not algorithms and making sure that when they leave us They have a positive association With the site and with whatever brands having to advertise on the site So we think it'll be a little more in-depth coverage Things that that we would want to read and that's kind of the guiding principle is let's create content That we would want to consume and and let's be open To what platform we need to put that on whether it's an article podcast video Twitch stream twitter chat reddit whatever it happens to be Let's let's go ahead and use the right tool for the job And bud as someone who's consumed a lot of SB Nation content over the last couple of years and myself I'm excited about this. Uh, what about for you specifically within the banner society for the fall? I I think you mentioned on one of your podcasts if you're doing a live picks thing on sunday morning You know, what's the plan for you specifically with banner society? Sure So a lot of the lines do come out on on sunday and my thought was okay. What what is the majority? Of our audience actually wager. Okay, as far as dollar amount I I doubt very many are more than the nickel players, right? Um, maybe a couple, but if you are you probably don't need to necessarily watch a gambling related podcast or tv show You probably have your own modeling and uh, so like let's let's go ahead and set the tone for the week. There are not a lot of Um gambling shows out there who will go ahead and go On sunday and that that's what i'm ready to fire So why not give the people my perspective? When these openers come out and then later in the week we'll we'll do a follow-up segment Discuss moves and and things that maybe I still like In the podcast ain't played nobody podcast with with steven godfrey. So sort of setting the table on sunday It's going to be on twitch And and taking people's questions and then recapping a bit and projecting more towards the weekend on thursday And bo would I mean you you were writing a column last week about picks on on sunday again with the same type of audience in mind What was your record there last year? I think I was 57 percent Now it's against openers, but most people I think can use that if they're willing to put their stuff in on sunday Yep, absolutely But I wanted to ask you a little bit about your process. Uh, just thinking about games We're starting to head into the season. How do you think about totals in games? Do you have a process for that? I do. So I use a couple different power ratings and I also consider Uh tempo as a big factor. I actually did a twitch show On this recently, right? How do we attack? totals early in the season I think there's potentially some some angles there that that we can we can look at and attack particularly with coaching changes If we know that a team wants to go faster or slower Certainly the the bookmakers most likely know that some but the public might not fully know that There may be some value there in the spread. So I look at certain teams. For instance, you saw a state last year Operated it at a really fast tempo, especially considering that their run-pass ratio They now have a new head coach a defensive coach in gary anderson. Now. He has pledged to keep that same tempo That's something you can look at. Okay. Do you think he really will? Not sure you may want to take a position there other teams. Certainly are going to play Much faster or or much slower northern illinois last year. I believe was a top 15 or 20 I don't have the numbers right in front of me top 15 or 20 tempo team Now that their new new coach thomas hammock is coming in. He's from the nfl which traditionally operates I mean obviously had a much slower tempo and he has a coaching background at wisconsin Which is not a tempo team either. So I would project north illinois tempo To decrease based on that relative to what they were I think in the first month there's there's some opportunity Uh to do some of those and there's like 20 No, sorry, I think there's like 40 coaching changes last year that I was looking at that I I kind of looked at them from hey, you know for sure for sure increase for sure decrease Probable increase probable decrease and then unsure Or or or neutral you can pick out five or six that can give you an advantage in that play And that's one of the advantages of just paying attention Honestly, and that's kind of a huge thing that you've talked about, you know As far as betting early season numbers is trying to you know, know where the advantages may be and for you specifically bud You know a lot about recruiting and that seems to be your edge And a big part of betting is kind of knowing where you have an edge Over the crowd over the public and may be able to use your knowledge to your advantage So with recruiting specifically How can you leverage that knowledge when it comes to betting on college football? So oftentimes I as far as media I'm one of the last people to have seen These players who were either high school players last year or who were backups, right and have not played A whole lot of college football I know generally how talented they are a lot of people can see that though by looking at the recruiting rankings A lot of the recruiting services do a pretty good job Especially overall on on rating a player But what they might not tell you is okay Is that guy rated highly because of his ceiling or because of his floor and knowing that Being around these kids seeing how they act maturity level sometimes as well On on the margins, right can tell you okay This guy may be a player who's able to step in and play and contribute early whereas somebody else may You might know okay. He's a high four star player. However That's a a long term projection because his top end is so good But his floor is lower So if you're able to to know that as well You can kind of figure out or not totally figure out I don't want to claim I have all the answers here on that But you can get a general idea of who might be be more ready to step in And thus which team may have a smaller drop-off than you would initially project based on who they lost off last year's team Interesting. Yeah, that's interesting. I mean are you kind of I mean you're almost Looking to see if any of these guys are antonio brown type drama queens that you know could came in with a lot of Hype and just could not be that good right or just, you know, not really Evolved to the stresses of the college game Exactly right and and there's plenty of kids who were immature in high school. I mean probably some of us Who turned out to be be fine folks and it's not that that they can't be ready It's not they can't become productive players. It's just the the readiness factor. Are they are they guys who? Are they sort of like professional college football players or are they going to be longer term? Guys and you hear that from from coaches and and assistants and other people you talk to Yeah, I like this kid long term, but they have to de recruit him They have to get him right He may need a year or two in the weight room type thing whereas a guy who All right, he should be ready to play right away Because he's experienced because he's already pretty developed. He may not be a super high ceiling player So knowing that I think can be helpful Absolutely and just kind of, you know having context behind the numbers is always a very helpful thing now bud We brought you on here to talk Some college football national championship numbers and I think that it makes sense to start from a broad perspective because we've got this 14 playoff and There is an extra degree of variance because it could lead to a dominant team Whether be due to injury or something like that losing in the semifinals But we've still seen either Clemson or alabama emerge as a national champs in forest trade seasons all with the playoff So when you look at this as a better Does the presence of a 14 playoff make you more willing less willing to bet championship odds or Does it not change anything for you when you're looking at, you know Championship odds as of right now Sure. So there's a couple things I do looking at here with the playoff. I feel like it is less likely that a team I'll plug my blue chip ratio article here that that I do every year I feel like there it is less likely that a team without really elite talent Wins the title now than it was under the old bcs system And the reason is that the odds say that in order to do so you the the cinderella or just the team without Maybe the hyper elite recruiting are going to have to defeat not only one But two Of those teams we saw with marcus mariota and organ a team that had recruited well But not on that upper echelon They had a superstar quarterback, which I think is probably the formula if you're a non Really elite recruiting team if you want to win a title you have to have a in my opinion a mariota type qb They got to do one a team in florida state and then and they whipped it a team that that had recruited very well They failed to beat ohio state. So I would say if if you're not a really elite recruiting team I'm not interested in taking a flyer on you in the new playoff format Right and and that was uh, I mean that was a florida state team that under achieved too So in some sense you could say that organ maybe got a break in that semi final game Oh for sure Yeah So you talked about the blue chip. Uh, this is an article you do every year Maybe run through a couple of top teams That you expect are going to contend for the championship Sure. So blue chip ratio real quick for those out out there listening Are you signing more four and five stars than two and three stars? I don't adjust for transfers. I did not adjust for um Players who who flunk out of school. It's just the signing class. I just want a very baseline Did you bring enough talent in over the last four years? To it's a necessary but not sufficient condition for me It's not a satisfactory condition for everything else, but that's sort of the baseline talent thing This year 16 teams. I think Ohio State, Bama, Georgia LSU, Florida State USC, Clemson, Penn State, Michigan Texas, Oklahoma Notre Dame, Washington Auburn Florida in Miami And a and m is the one that's real close, but they're they're not quite there one more recruiting class and they'll join join the fray So penn state was one of the teams listed in there And I guess to me personally that was a bit of a surprise. I did see you talking about them on twitter What are your thoughts on penn state given that they grayed out so well in that blue chip ratio? Yeah, when james franklin took them over their their blue chip ratio was in the teams And and now they're up there Close to 60% Doing well they're consistently bringing in better and better talent Clearly they have some continuity and some experience replacement concerns On offense and they have not really been As far as the advance metro scope Certainly on Ohio State's equal and and also not michigan's equal Uh in in the power rankings, but the record the record's been fairly well, you know, fairly good James franklin always did a pretty good job At vanderbilt. I do have some concerns Of their continued issues replacing joe moorhead, but i'm willing to be patient and see See how that looks I I did notice there were some Plus 2,500 and plus 2,800 for penn state to win the big 10 And that just seemed a little bit inflated to me. That was I don't know maybe a month ago Most places that I look now it's more plus 1,800 plus 1,600 which feels You know a little more in line So I took a nibble at that Oh, there you go So at the fan dual sports book you can either battle on the championship Straight up or you can bet on individual teams to make the four team playoff Do you have a preference on which market you like more? Honestly, it really depends on if i'm betting the team because I believe that they Have the chance to win it all or if i'm betting the team because I think that they have a more favorable schedule schedule matters in both I think schedule matters more When you're betting just to make the playoff for instance I might back a team like utah if if I got the right price to make it. I was looking at their schedule today and I know people think washington is a favorable schedule, but the the order in which utah schedule drops is It's pretty favorable, right? So they they do have to go at washington and washington is often by When they go to washington in early november, but but here are the four weeks preceding that game for utah by week at organ estate, which is probably One of the worst package of power five teams out there host arizona state host cal You talk could go into that game relatively healthy and take a little bit of practice time in each of those weeks To ref some concepts for washington Additionally, they they get a bi-week, but you know after washington state, which could help them to heal up their finish is Very cozy right ucla at arizona host colorado Yeah, that's yeah, that's interesting I mean, I think the washington schedule comes in a little bit more with the north I mean, I found their schedule to be much easier than orgin In terms of not getting organ at home and then I think stanford and usc Are two common opponents, but organ gets them both on the road and washington gets them both at home So I think that you know that schedule thing is is really about who's going to win the north And yeah, I like what you're saying about utah and the south and a and a sleeper to make the playoff Although, you know the pack tall has been dry a couple years there now Right and I would not bet on utah to win at all that that would that utah. I don't think has that Super elite level talent to be able to win back to that games at that level But it wouldn't totally shock me if they went 12-0 and that's where the blue chip ratio comes into play So certainly relevant there when it comes to utah. Let's talk about a couple other specific teams here Right now. I mean obviously I think going into the year we can assume that clinton and alabama probably going to be pretty good But for the past four years, they've kind of been in a tier of their own So bud as we enter 2019 Do you view that as being the case once again where clinton and alabama are kind of in one tier and then it's everybody else beneath them Yes, I think they belong in their own tier. I don't know that there's an enormous gap between them and Three four five six, whoever you have there, but I think they are a pretty clear um Pretty clear one two in whichever order you'd like. I mean clemson has to replace a lot on the defensive front But they have first of all their their culture is tremendous So I really am a believer in the way clemson develops talent Uh, they their blue chip ratio is only 61 and bamas is 80 Uh, right and and yet which shows again kind of gets back to the idea It's once you get to a certain rate. It's not really how many more four and five stars are you packing in? It's you have this minimum level of elite talent. How are you developing it after that point? I know for a fact that clemson really likes a lot of these replacements that they have been coming in on the defensive line Trevor Lawrence is is a stud and and bamma is just So talented, um It's it's hard. I think not to have those two One two in some order, but from a talent perspective recruiting wise Georgia and Ohio state are really close and I think michigan Because because they have shape patterns and who I do like and I think they'll open it up more They could end up kind of them with oklahoma being in in in that In that five six range not that far behind necessarily although i'm a little concerned about oklahoma after Their top or the most experienced db got hurt yesterday So clemson is plus 170 if ando sports book in alabama is plus 230 And I think that if you're viewing the gap between them in the field is not being that large It might turn you off when those numbers are so short So are you inclined to bet either clemson or alabama at their respective numbers? Or are you kind of staying away and betting on longer shots for this year? I I would prefer to bet on on longer shots, which I honestly I don't I don't have any national title bets this year. Um, there's there's nothing that really jumped out I mean part of that is you know, I was away on paternity stuff Which when I came back I was happy to find the penn state Availability there for the for the big 10, but there's nothing that's jumping out to me right now at at that level I I do like lsu a lot, but the best i'm seeing out there is I think Plus 2000 Um, and that their schedule is is still really tough and i'm not that inclined Uh to go ahead and take that they're 5 000 at fando sports book Oh, there you go. Just gonna float that out there for if you're price shopping You might have to take a little trip up to New Jersey. That's right Yeah, but I want to ask you about a couple other teams. I mean, oklahoma, they lost their best defensive back This was a unit that has horrendously struggled over the past two years under link and riley. Um Talk a little bit more about what you think of this team offence defense otherwise Sure, so I I think they're going to be considerably better on defense just because of the renewed confidence and End of better coaching, uh, but riley has said look We are not where we want to be in terms of defensive depth and and I do think the recruiting bears that out a little bit They do not have the depth of elite athletes in the front seven That that some of your teams in the sec or clemson or Ohio State or michigan Might have one area. I'm also a little bit concerned about it. They did lose a good bit on the offensive line um Calibri was incredible and so was baker mayfield and jail in herds has great escape ability So I I do like his ability to run around but there were times last year go watch that ucla game or calibri had seven seconds To I mean in the pocket and would just he's like, oh, well, it's been five full seconds Let me let me scamp around here a couple more and then find somebody open If they were in another league that produced better quality defensive linemen with regularity I would be more concerned the big 12 does not produce a whole lot of great defensive linemen So it mitigates the concern a little bit But it still is a a bit of a concern if you're betting them for the national title Because they are gonna have to face What are the chance that they have to face? Bama or clemson or both In the playoff to win the title decent Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So but uh, michigan struggled struggled recently Over the past couple years to kind of get over the hump with jim harbaugh They're plus 280 to make the playoffs and minus 400 to miss Do you see any value on either side of that one? If you gave me like plus 330 I I might take a bite on that Um, I I do think they're going to open the offense up more with shape Patterson I have a lot of confidence in in don brown to make that defense Uh be able to withstand some of the personnel losses they had and they have really recruited well On defense, I think their offensive line also is going to be going to be improved, right? I I like what ad's doing up there Not not you Like what you do, but i'm doing great things in ad arbor. I don't know where you are I want to see ad go coach offensive line, but uh ed warner their their offensive line coach They did a really good strides, uh last year. I think they could take another step forward this year At the same time Is it hard for y'all to get that michigan game michigan ohio state game out of your head? No, I've completely forgot actually and I and I did a I'm doing an episode of my preview series on it Which everyone's going to hate me for but uh, it's bill connelly and and explosive plays and all that stuff But but bud you're obviously right like that. I mean that that ohio state game is obviously terrorizing everyone And how can it not? Um, but you know, I mean I think when you look at the underlying metrics And you when you look at these types of metrics that bill tells you to look at You know the success rate in that game was was pretty close And I'll get into more on that a little bit later Uh, but I do want to ask you um, you know, there was a coordinator change with josh gattis coming in He's promised to go more up tempo. That's got to be something you look at when you're looking at totals too early in the season It absolutely is and obviously we had the controversy this week for those who saw it on twitter I think loxley said that he was the primary play caller or something and uh Whatever there's a difference between making suggestions and making decisions, but I I think gattis is really sharp I I know him more as as a recruiter and an ability to Relate to young people is is really high right that the the kids at bama loved him I know for a fact recruits love him and not in that sort of like Salesman huxter type of way. There's an element of that with any good recruiter, but uh, I think he's a sharp guy Look at his progression Up the ladder a lot of really good coaches seem to like josh gattis I think he should do well there and Yeah, if you're if you're evaluating michigan Michigan plays a defense that oftentimes gets the offense off the field very quickly Be it be it sack turnover or Once in a while a long explosive score They don't typically allow 10 12 play drives If michigan's operating at a greater tempo and the defense keeps that same Um characteristics you could have have some overs in michigan games this year Yeah, we're talking here with bud elliott of sp nation and The banner society you can find them on podcast ain't played nobody one of my favorite college football podcasts We're just continuing under the banner society as well And bud let's talk here about some teams you're monitoring and you know when you're price shopping out there Maybe you're looking into certain teams to see what their number may be at different books You mentioned lsu is a team that is at least interesting to you Especially if their number is as long as it's a fan dual sports book And the other teams stand out to you as ones you want to monitor when it comes to either their playoff odds or their national championship odds What i've been monitoring just for for humor purposes is nebraska Uh, I I think nebraska is going to be successful under scott frost Um, they're going to give him a long enough leash to where I think his build could resemble what washington under chris peterson to where Elite recruits didn't flock to them immediately and eventually They started doing so because of the winning and that's a tough model to replicate right a lot of a lot of fans are like Oh, well when the winds come the better recruits will come Uh, not not always it's it's really important to knock that knock the ball out of the park in your first two full classes But I think because the patients they had they were frost Uh, he may be able to kind of follow that peterson model at washington when looking at at their talent over time. However, uh, The nebraska love this year is is a little extreme. Um, I don't know that they're going to make That big of a leap uh from from year one to year two. So I've been sort of monitoring them Are they a top 20 team in y'all's futures? Uh, they gotta be they're 80 to one. Um, so they're in the same tier as auburn Uh, they are uh, you tell us 70 Uh, or again and then miami are both 60. So that's kind of the range they're in right now They're actually they have the same odds as wisconsin and shorter than penn state Yeah, yeah, but I really like how you bring up the similarities with washington and I think the similarities go a little bit further I mean jake browning was a huge part of getting that program back to an elite level at the quarterback position over the last three years And with nebraska, you got adrian martinez. Like a guy a guy who I thought was really good as a true freshman last year So can he take the leap? Can he help scott frost? You know get to that winning level Obviously, there's a lot of reasons for doubt particularly along the defensive line But I I like the I like the analogy that you have between those two programs Can you mad and for those who don't know martinez was actually committed to tennessee for a long time Can you imagine what tennessee fans would be saying if they actually still had him? Thanks It would totally change their their fortune. I will say i'm monitoring auburn by the way. Yeah, okay Uh, talk to me about auburn and lsu. Uh, you mentioned lsc before so What draws you towards those two teams as far as monitoring what their prices may be for championship futures with auburn? It's the defensive line. I mean their their defensive line is Is so talented I think they could be better on the offensive line as well this year I I do like them in that gaming as organ. But of course, what's the question here quarterback? Are they going to go with joey gatewood who is not a great thrower? uh At least from what i've seen personally is recruit and then continued reading the practice the practice reports at auburn Are they going to go with true freshman? Bo nicks who I do feel as a quarterback recruit coming out is Pretty advanced. Uh, however, he's still a true freshman playing in the sec west. That's not something that works out Too often although perhaps if two ahead done so, um, you know prior Maybe we feel a little bit different about that But with auburn's talent defensive line, I think it's it's worth monitoring. It's just that division Plus work added onto the schedule is is so brutal and auburn's cross-divisional opponent on a yearly basis being georgia Is is worth it at least have the loss depending on how you project that When you're sort of adding up your win shares lsu I think their offensive line is going to be improved. They are talking about throwing the football more Um, they get clevin chasing back who's one of the more talented pass rushers in the sec I think they've added an immediate Like sec caliber starter upper level starter type caliber player in derrick stingley the corner Uh, who was the number one corner in the country and a lot of people thought he was the best player overall In the nation last year coming out of high school if you put him and fulton out there Even if he's your number three corner, I don't think lsu secondary is going to have much of a drop off I know they lost gritty williams and some guys To the nfl so I really like their ability to get stops there on defense, but if you bet lsu you have to answer yourself the question Can they score on alabama? because if they can't this is Your bet's probably done Yep And recently and it can't I mean so many questions about joe bro a quarterback still for me Um couldn't run the ball last year, which is part of why you were mentioning improvement on the offensive line Yeah, a lot of questions there Absolutely. Uh, so bud. Let's close up here. Uh, just by ignoring the odds for a second I just want to get your prediction You know, I want to hear what four teams you think will make the playoffs this year and which team wins it all again You don't have to go like you you can just ignore the odds here If bud had to pick right now, who would you pick to be the four teams and the champion for 2019? All right, I'll take uh, I'll take climson bambo for sure. Um, and then for the other two I I think i'm going to take georgia Uh to make simply because they got left out last year. There's probably some backlash due to the amount Uh by which oklahoma lost in that playoff game The fourth is tough I'm really torn between between michigan and ohio state because I don't really think utah is going to go 12 and 0 they they could I guess but I guess I will go I guess I'll go ohio state, but man that game's on the road I guess I'll I'll go michigan that that one is it's really kind of a tall spring All right, michigan plus 280 to make the uh four team playoff But I do want to thank you once again follow bud on twitter at bud elliott three bud Thanks for sharing your knowledge here talking a little bit of recruiting talking college football Excited to get week zero underway not too long for right now. Uh, so, uh, enjoy fatherhood Enjoy getting ready for the season. Hopefully we'll talk to you again soon. Absolutely guys Covering the future One final thank you to bud elliott of espionation for stopping by and talking a little college football national championship Odds among a plethora of other topics and a really good info there just in general about How to bet early in the season things to look for and uh things that may be impactful when you're betting totals and stuff like that I think add honestly like that's just such good knowledge to have Of things because there's a lot of things we need to pay attention to But it's good to narrow that list down a bit and kind of find the impactful things to research When you're trying to cram stuff in before the start of the season Yeah, absolutely. And bud is great about his approach. Um, he actually didn't even talk about some of his approach to spreads Which is also interesting and a very good approach as well in terms of combining a number of different power rankings, but uh Yeah, bud bud is in in the kind of journalist community bud is um kind of a betting savant in some ways Yeah, and that shines through in the way he talks too. So uh, really appreciate that bud swung by let's take a look at covering the future right now And look at some bets that are numbers like and last week ed We talked with gill alexander avicen about the oakland raiders and Why he's betting the under on them and since then there's been a lot of news around the raiders So you're gonna talk about the raiders a team that nobody has thought about within the past week What do you see with them as of right now? Well, I've been a little bit reluctant to talk about oakland. Um, I think they might be okay this year And I think that might be a little bit of a controversial take I've got these nightmares of adam kaplan calling me after the show and fired me for my bad takes on oakland You're gonna have to sell me on this one. I'll tell you that What's that you're gonna have to sell me on this one Well, I mean, but let me let me give you all the reasons why you might not think that they're gonna be that good And you can certainly question their management So they traded away kalil mac for a couple first round picks They traded away amar cooper and and you can think oh, we're building for the future We're we're developing all these assets And then they go out on free seas free agency and they sign a bunch of guys like they want to win now So what is it? Um, are you are you trying to plan for the future? Are you trying to win now? And then gilbert at the point is like well can can gruden coach And you know, maybe that's tough after such a layoff that that he was on But I think there's a lot of underlying reasons that that they could be pretty good And it all starts with last year's numbers. I started looking at success rate last year And this is a kind of a sticky predictive statistic More so than yards per play that I I've been starting to get into and a play is excessive An offense gets half its yards on first down 70 percent on second down and all the necessary yards on third and fourth down And I was always Interested last year that the raiders were like 10th when I look at adjusted success rate on on passing plays Um, they weren't very efficient kind of throwing the ball down the field Um, but there was a little bit of a story to it like oakland couldn't really pass protect that well And so they had Derek Carr the quarterback throwing short Um, you can look at this in terms of a dot or average depth of target And he had the second lowest in the nfl last season But he was pretty good at completing those passes. He had a completion percentage of almost 69 percent And now he adds antonio brown as a deep threat They perhaps get better at pass protection with uh with Trent brown And so I I see a unit that can potentially be top 10 On defense, they have a budding shutdown corner in gary and connelly. Uh, he was the second-year player last year He was heard as a rookie But by football outsiders the raiders were second in the nfl Against guarding top receivers And you know, I mean that if he can but I mean if he can turn into that type of shutdown corner I mean that's the type of player that you know teams that we're talking about in the super bowl like Indianapolis and Kansas City. They just don't have They helped uh with the rest of the secondary they drafted safety jonathan abram Which is a as a first round pick that everyone seems to like A guy that can start right away. They signed the market's joiner as a free agent They drafted defensive end club clue and fero As a pass rusher, so hopefully they can get a little bit better there And then there's some young players, uh That could be really good. Maurice Hurst is a defensive tackle. He played at michigan Pretty much the quickest first step I've ever seen a defensive tackle He's got a really quick first step He fell down draft boards before last year because of a hard condition, but he played last year He had four sacks as a defensive tackle So I see a lot of talent on On this Oakland roster So when you look at their six wins and you account for schedule And this is a calculation I do to figure out what Oakland's rating should be Such that they should have six wins And this means that Oakland's 25th in the nfl And that just seems a little low to me. I mean you could you could potentially have a top 10 offense. You could have an average defense So I'm leaning towards the over with oakland at the six wins Now, obviously you can't really make this call until the antonio brown situation Gets resolved the man has decided that he's not going to play He might retire because he can't wear the helmet that he wants Which from what I understand is indicative of some of the drama that played out in pittsburgh Last year. He's obviously a talent. We've got to wait a little bit on this one but I think there's I think there's some really interesting things going on in oakland I mean it could you know, would I be shocked if they were the worst team in the league again? No, but I I think I think their their mean could be very close to the middle of the nfl and not like the lower middle Like everyone's expecting and one thing that's a positive for oakland From your perspective is that the over the juice on the over has changed quite a bit They are now plus 165 to go over six and a half wins And I think that a large part of that derives from the antonio brown thing So I think that you know, we talked about this was whalecapper a lot finding a good time to buy in If you want to buy in the raiders Probably not going to get a whole lot worse than that I would say So that's definitely positive. Also like draft picks are valuable Usually it's in bulk And like you want to have a lot of draft picks they had nine this year, which is not a super large number But four of those were in the top 40 selections They had eight of those in the first five rounds seven of them were in the first four rounds so they got a lot of Cracks at guys who were regarded as being very talented players. That is helpful colton miller. They're left tackle He didn't play well last year. He was actually quite bad But his combine numbers once you adjust for his weight Were actually like elite level from an athletic testing perspective. He was just he's very young He's a very raw prospect But there's the potential he develops into something more Trent brown at right tackle played well with san francisco when he was a right tackle and obviously learned a lot from dante scar necki last year with the patriots Gabe Jackson their right guard banged up right now And I think that that is another reason along with antonio browns maybe hold off on them till we get more information on him, but There are reasons to think oakland could be better than perception. I also think that there is value in betting on laughing stocks because the public perception of oakland right now is terrible And it's going to put some public money on their unders So I personally am not going to go out there and seek out an oakland over bets But I think that your route your process in getting there is sound and I think there are other reasons to support it as well Yeah, and and and there's some other things that you know I mean they they were good at throwing the ball last year, but they were terrible at scoring So that's usually means that they were bad in the red zone and they were one of the I mean not the worst in the nfl but they were you know bottom 10 in terms of red zone Efficiency so those are the type of numbers that can kind of flip from year to year with a little bit of regression You know, I mean, I think you have to like the changes in the roster Yeah, and now it's a question of you know, can can group and coach it up You know, can they get it done on the field? So we shall see we will certainly find out I'm talking nfl for mine as well and covering the future And I'm talking a guy who made his preseason debut last week And you can't judge a whole lot from preseason because it's oftentimes starters against backups But Kyler Murray didn't play too poorly and this is not based on that But it was just kind of fun to watch Kyler Murray play football once again on a football field And right now Fandall Sportsbook has individual yardage props posted They went up last week for both quarterbacks and running backs and The injury rate at quarterback is lower than at running backs So I think if I'm going to go into one of these markets, I'd prefer to go in a quarterback And when I'm looking at these markets I want to find guys we're going to start and I want to find guys who are stable quarterbacks Who project to start the entire year and maintain that role You're all your long and Kyler Murray checks both those boxes and his yardage prop is 3400 yards with minus 110 on the over And I think it makes a lot of sense to go hard at that number because this team We talked with bud about you know, maybe taking advantage of situations that have changed It doesn't get a whole lot different from what Arizona had last year to go an air raid And that means that we're going to have heavy passing volume They should have a fairly positive run pass ratio or you know skewed heavily towards the pass And it also means more snaps because cliff kingsbury and college Always ran at a super high pace. That is good for yardage It is good for play volume and both those things play well when you're trying to bet the over here If we look back to 2019 or 2018, I should say 3400 yards passing would have ranked 19th in football That was right behind baker mayfield who didn't start a couple didn't start three games I believe and also a run heavy russa wilson right ahead of cam newton michael trabisky both of whom Missed a couple of games. So it's not a super high number at 3400 yards number fires projections have Murray at 3862 passing yards this year that gives him probably a one or two-ish game cushion to hit the over here and that is a projection and I think that that number could honestly sell him a bit short because kyler Murray was a very talented passer in college He set the ncda record for a single season adjusted yards per attempt last year And we know he's going to start all year long. They're probably going to play from behind, which is not good for efficiency But it is good for passing volume And from a pure yardage perspective, which is what we're looking at here It certainly does not hurt to throw the ball a whole lot and I would expect Arizona to do exactly that have a lot of spread formations and I think that everything bodes well for kyler Murray to hit the over here At 3400 yards. I think that among the bets on the board. He is the one I would feel safe is making This is the market that I like best So I think that kyler Murray over 3400 yards is a number I would like to hit While it's still there as of right now and we don't we haven't really talked about kyler Murray a whole lot So, uh, what is your view on him transitioning to the nfl? Well, what I want to ask you I mean, I'm I'm always a little bit cautious about rookie quarterback Rookie head coach and and and all the warnings there But the thing I want to ask you about jim is is I don't think you had their offensive line rated that high 30 so Yeah, so that's not good out of 32 teams. Uh, past protection. They were probably Bottom five as well below average. Yeah Low average at least so I mean does I give you a little bit pause about, uh kyler Murray at 3400 yards So I think the one thing that is a positive here It's something that evan silva we had on the the show a couple weeks ago talked about Has talked about the Cardinals this year is that at texas tech cliff kingsbury did not have offensive line talent I think they had one offensive line been drafted in his entire time there And this air raid system revolves a lot around getting the ball out quickly trying to utilize, uh, you know Short short drops and we did see a lot of that for Murray in the preseason now With that said the offensive line still managed to allow a lot of pressure And that was something that just did catch my attention. I would say uh that Murray was on the move quite a bit but I think that I worry about that from a fantasy perspective Because sacks put you behind the sticks they lower your touchdown expectation quite a bit I worry about it a little bit less when it comes to raw passing yardage Just because you're gonna have to throw it towards the sticks, uh, and that's going to you know, increase your adod and stuff like that And Murray was a good deep ball passer So I think it is a concern for the team as a whole and it's why I'm not actively betting the Cardinals over this year And I think that having kingsbury being the head coach, uh, patrick peterson suspension those are all playing to that But I think with this specific prop I'm less worried about the offensive line than I am elsewhere So the offensive line is something that does bother me and it concerns me with David johnson a little bit and broadly with this offense But I think with this specific number I'm still worried about it and it does matter. I'm just less worried than I am elsewhere. That makes sense Yeah, no, that makes a lot of sense. Um, I mean, I do worry that just like if you're a good deep ball throw That's great, but you need some time And uh, is he gonna get it? So right And that is very much a question Yeah, but I but I will agree with you. I actually talked to John josh hermsmeyer of 538 Recently and he was also very high on on arizona's offense So there's definitely a consensus amongst The smart data driven people, uh, that this is going to be a pretty good unit Awesome. Looking forward to that. I think that'll just be fun to watch too Just like from a football fan perspective and I'm pretty excited about that that does not relate to betting But from a selfish perspective as someone who wants to watch fun football Pretty excited to see what the cardinals can do this year. That is all we have for today here on covering the spread But more nfl talk later in the week Keith goldner of number fire the analytics guru the guy who runs all of our projections over on number fire Going to talk about divisional odds at fan dual sports books So make sure you subscribe to covering the spread on spotify apple podcast soundcloud stitcher wherever you get your podcast You can find covering the spread ratings and reviews are huge for us So if you've enjoyed what you've heard from bud from ed anybody else Make sure you drop in there and leave us a rating interview And we so deeply appreciate it from those of you who have done so already Ed what you got in store for this week either on your podcast or over at the power rank Yeah, the power rank on my email newsletter. Uh, I give a sample of My best computer predictions that I usually say for paying members of the site I do that on my email newsletter. There's a little bit of analysis in there as well And i'm starting a little bit early this year. The first one will go out thursday So if you're interested in that if you're interested in getting more of uh, Some of the analysis that I provide here or analysis like that You can go to the power rank dot com and sign up for my free email newsletter Outstanding you can find them at the power rank dot com You can find ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you what goes out to our producer calvin theobald for chopping things up for the fan dual twitter account and keeping us on the air here as well Big thank you to bud elliott for swinging by and spreading his college football knowledge as well And thank you to all of you for tuning in for today and we'll talk to you once again on thursday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network