 Good morning everybody. It's wonderful to be here at wider and I'd like to thank Finn Tarp and the University for inviting me I first got to know Finn and in Mozambique and it's great to be here But a bit daunting when you have your professor that you're your ex professor that you're giving comments on So dr. Abbott, I hope you forgive me if I refer to you as Phil because I've been calling pair pair for years and of course Usman is my colleague and counterpart in and another work So I want to just briefly review the key points that were discussed but Put some ideas on the table for the discussion that you're going to be having Both Phil and the pair drew on research work done in association with uni wider To take a deep dive look into the recent past drawing on data but seeking also to understand the political economy understanding what and how decisions are made For Phil the lens was focused on foreign direct assistance both from the public sector as well as private Investment and as pair just explained to you he focused on a study that looked at 14 countries that dealt with the increase in international food price fluctuations triggered by the food price crisis in key grain crops in 2007 2008 Usman focused in looking at the structural change in Africa in the 1990s and the decline in Agriculture in the 1990s led to the mass of exodus to the low-paying formal goods and service sector I'd like to hit on a few key points for discussion Starting with pairs paper pairs main point Is that we need to move beyond numbers and understand what drives political choices? If we are going to be able to recommend actions that are truly relevant for sustaining healthy diets for all and He gave some of the underlying reasons I think the one that rang home with me most closely as having worked in a policy advisor for the in the Ministry of Agriculture for many years Was the fact that there are several players involved in making these decisions and governments obviously Prioritized protecting their own legitimacy and I often remember that the only time our beautiful research papers and policy briefs Got used is when they agreed with what the Minister of Agriculture wanted to do already So I understand the win-win principle when you're thinking about what you can actually get done and move forward with with governments And it really struck me from looking at the the last chapter in his book That one third only one third on average of the world market food price changes were transmitted To these developing countries and really what's really driving the large impact or the national factors Such as extreme weather events poorly functional domestic markets and limited international food trade in most developing countries And he gave some clear recommendations on the way forward specific specifically emphasizing Targeted compensation over price interventions, and he also mentioned improving management of cereal stocks And I think this is all very insightful analysis And we are truly interested. I think though if we're truly interested in healthy diets for all We should be looking beyond the top three grains in world trade and I think for instance we should be Concerned that we have not seen productivity increases in the vegetables pulses and legumes at the same rate as grain crops over the past three decades and Consequentially the prices of vegetables fruits and legumes relative to grains Increased more making it harder for poor people to afford healthy diversified diets and As Perr noted when he was speaking Shouldn't we be paying more attention to the micronutrient content per hectare as we move forward and of course Those of us working in bio fortification that are seeking to put increased micronutrient content in staple food crops Recognize the potential for helping to do and contribute to this We should also be particularly concerned in Sub-Saharan Africa the that we the continent produces a limited amount of wheat and many consumers urban consumers in particular are hooked on wheat in 2016 Africa imported 43 million tons of wheat costing 9.3 billion dollars and Over the last decade as a whole Sub-Saharan Africa has been a major Driver rising global wheat trade due to rising demand by urbanization population growth and the increasing middle class so should there not be more active policy efforts to encourage more consumption of foods that can be grown on the African context and Really promote policies for partial wheat flour substitution by crops grown on the continent Abbott stressed that feeding nine billion people will require substantially increased production and he noted that what food Really foreign assistance can contribute is very small compared to what is needed But in partial answer to Philip's question should we invest only when there is good governments I would say the answer is no because governments can change and should ordinary people really be punished for governance That they are not necessarily fully responsible for at the time the question is for the panel. What type of investment should you make for different kinds of regimes? So you can make progress in especially in creating the infrastructure investments and the educational investments So that emerging leaders will help get the needed change Moreover, I would ask the panel. What are the dangers which occur when foreign aid and FDI focuses just on a few countries? Felt worthy of investment What is truly the capacity of governments to absorb and utilize? Well large amounts of funds in short periods of time Phil also noted that the expansion of the private Public sector partnerships has not taken off for agriculture as hoped for But I think Then in part this is because as he noted due to the unstable political environments tax regimes or the inadequate Infrastructure and profit margins due to low purchasing powers of many consumers. I would note that some of the same investments that enable agriculture Will also enable more private sector investment But as by the end notice the one area we are seeing more outside private foreign investment as well as internal domestic investment Is the food industry and we've seen positive and negatives again for human health in that regard Nutritionists are already noting that most African countries are experiencing the triple burden of malnutrition That is high rates of under nutrition high rates of hidden hunger or micronutrient malnutrition and rising levels of obesity particularly in urban areas and I always look at the story of instant noodles in Nigeria as my key example of that The company Indomie entered Nigeria with imported instant noodles from Indonesia in 1988 They now have 10 factories and there are 17 other countries producing instant noodles in Nigeria and Nigeria is now the 12th largest consumer of instant noodles in the world now if you read the business literature This is considered a great success, but from the nutrition standpoint. It's a disaster Low on nutritive content high on calories fat sodium and low dietary fiber So and to top it off they market this as tasty nutrition good for you The only noodles brand endorsed by the nutrition society of Nigeria So let us note that the WHO estimated that in 2014 25 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are already living with diabetes up from 4 million in 1980 With an estimated two-thirds of the cases undiagnosed So the question I pose is it time to move beyond just food prices and can currently include food quality in most of our work Can the developing world really afford or want to adopt the efficient but unhealthy food system of the West? Is there an international responsibility for foreign assistance to strengthen regulatory bodies and institutions to think through future options and go for an efficient but healthy one is the move of many countries providing foreign direct assistance in the past from Trade not aid going to positively or negatively affect the kind of food system being promoted Badi ended an excellent job of presenting his concept of structural change And he demonstrated what happened in the 90s the negative 90s I always call them in terms of agriculture in Comparison to the time since 2000 and he showed figures that the rate of GDP growth was even higher In Africa than for bricks or the world average But I suspect that some of that is driven by Africa having a lot much lower base to start with But a strong argument is made that the situation is turning around and there's been overall positive structural change And but again, I and I really appreciate the millet example of how to build value chains To address the needs of urban consumers who want convenient food products again I would hope you would use encourage them to be growing iron bought bio fortified millet in that regard But and he enumerated the investment in skills and trainings that will be needed to do this Alongside this investment is an important to get laboratory investments and investments in facilities that can let us work on nutrient retention and food quality as We go to develop these convenient products. We know urban consumers want convenience But we also want to make sure that we haven't removed all the micronutrients and minerals during our processing procedures So I think that has to move hand-in-hand along with food safety is that we really look at the nutrient quality of what we're doing She's looking at me. I'm almost done So for the panelists, we know that climate change is going to result in more frequent extreme events in this context What should governments be investing in as the top three priorities to stabilize? price fluctuations over time within most African countries What is the correct balance between domestic production and reliance on import for key staples? Is it just comparative advantage or should we move beyond that? How do we get policymakers to think beyond calories for keeping the masses quiet to building healthy diverse food systems to ensure productive smart populations for the future Should international organizations help monitor the action of multinational companies investing in fast foods across the globe? Should foreign aid focused on investing in agriculture research since governments are preoccupied with shorter-term investments to ensure their own political futures and Finally, perhaps next year the session can be entitled hunger and nutrition security. Thank you