 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com welcome to this week's supply and demand for us and gold fundamental and technical analysis For those of you who are new or warm welcome to you and the turning Watchers and equally warm welcome to you and for anyone who's watching right now press the like subscribe share button With your fellow colleagues as it helps really get this quality content out to the Traders that need it by helping me boost it. I guess in the rankings for In on YouTube and other social media platforms So again just a bit of an overview in case you're new about the trading 180 process We apply fundamental analysis to establish directional bias and then a technical Analysis of plan demand strategies to time our trade entries risk management and establish profit targets This is not one versus the other we use You know both to make the best trading decisions, right? so getting on to the weekly Week ahead I guess and some of the fundamental analysis from trading economics And I guess a short synopsis would be that the war in Ukraine would again continue to wait on the markets next week With any breakthrough on ceasefire unlikely to happen any time soon. Yeah, there was a recent Think Joe Biden was talking about it. Well, he called The enemy a pew in the butcher, right? So Those are fighting words. I guess Investors also will closely Follow the US paywall report and personal consumption expenditure data for any clues on how fast the Fed will tighten the monetary policy So high-key interest rates and then there's some some in-depth detail in here But actually we'll go over a few of these things. I wanted to make it too long Because I know you guys are here for not only the fundamentals and and some other technical analysis as well as far as supply and demand But it'll be a busy week in the US With all eyes on March paywall reports and personal consumption expenditures Markets expected a 475,000 employment gain and a 3.7 percent rate of unemployment another sign of a tight labor market and strengthening for the case Strengthening the case for the Fed to deliver a 50 basis points hike in May. So that's definitely something that's going to be watched We've got as is elsewhere in America of manufacturing PMIs for Canada Alongside monthly GDP for Canada. That's going to be something to watch Just skimming through this right now in Europe key inflation report will be released We're released in the eurozone including those for Germany France Italy and Spain in the euro area the headline HICP rate, which is a measure of inflation I think it's called harmony Inflation consumer prices. I think that's what it is Rate is expected to surge again in March reaching and Reaching a new all-time high of 6.5 year-on-year compared to 5.9 in February And investors will also keep an eye on the euro business Survey in the United Kingdom Will be publishing the final estimates for fourth quarter GDP growth And manufacturing also incur alongside the current account Bank of England's monetary indicators That's going to be Important as well. And then in Asia the week will be dominated by PMI readings with reports From major economies including China, Japan, Australia and South korea Also as well from a risk sentiment perspective We've got it says the PMI as I said to reveal how manufacturers are being impacted by strong inflationary pressures Intensified by the supply disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and China's effort to contain widespread virus outbreaks So that's another risk That's on the horizon if if China starts to slow down and it does look like they are again We could you know the case for buying, you know safe haven Assets at least is you know, like gold and silver definitely is if it's not already obvious Then that's definitely something that we should be looking at trading on on pullbacks So with that being said, I think that is pretty much it Yeah, so hold on to his one as well So Australia's retail sales gorge for February will be monitored to access the health of the consumer spending in the country as analysts look for strong cues Of economic recovery to give the green light for a rate hike by the reserve bank of Australia in the middle of the year so again, we'll get on to the Australian dollar, but The Australian dollar price action has been doing really well. I'm not only from a commodities It's a commodity currency and commodities are rising in price, but the fact that they've got The rumour that the australian the rba may look to high crates, right? So that's also going to strengthen the currency. Anyways, let's get on to the technicals and starting off as we usually do on the dx y Which is dollar index dollar index is a measure of dollar strength against major currencies some of them being the the yen the euro and the and the british pound So i'm going to start drawing in some of these demand zones again For what I start off on a bit of a fresh chart Um, so we do have an area Where price has and my bias is really to the long side to be fair Um At the moment there's nothing really of interest from a shorting perspective that i'm interested in looking to short the dollar um There is I hesitate to kind of put that as a as a demand zone There is demand there, but it's it really isn't for me the strongest area of demand I think if it prices come down to that 97 40 area I do like that area as a level of demand And again, that would be confluence why so, you know dollar does have to sell off Before the potential hike then that's really the buying opportunity so um And again, just why would I be looking to buy the dollar not necessarily based on the fact that you know, it's been in an uptrend That makes um, you know, that's not how we trade trading 180 We're understanding why traders and why the markets likely to move higher in the uh medium to long term and uh one of the One of the things or some of the things are the fact that goldman sacks sees the fed hiking 50 basis points at may and june meetings Right, so goldman sacks some of the smartest guys in the world um Now expect the federal reserve to raise rates by 50 basis points at both may and june policy meetings right so Hiking rates generally is supportive of currency appreciates a currency and that's the intention right is to appreciate the currency We also have um fed williams saying that a half a point hike on Is on the table if needed. So, you know, that just confirms What the federal reserve particularly one of the members is actually thinking um So decisions to be made based on economic outlook williams says And says that the medium to long term inflation expectations are stable So medium to long term, but um, I do think that uh again, it just confirms really You know any kind of pullbacks on the dollar for now? Anyway, at least in the short term buying opportunities again, things can change Moving on to uh janet yellen again. Yellen sees no weakness in the u.s economy even with global growth dented so In order for the fed to hike rates The the the economy needs to be able to support it and the economy should be really growing in line with a hike in interest rates, sorry said inflation before in a hike in interest rates So, um janet yellen Said that she expects the u.s economy to remain resilient even as higher energy and commodity costs triggered by russia invasion of ukraine Then the outlook for global growth, right? So globally, um, china could bring that down by the way So we do have to keep an eye on that but for now, obviously the sentiment is you know to the upside and really just to Kind of confirm that as well in the numbers is that jobless rate falls nearly In nearly every u.s state with 12 at record lows, right? So unemployment in a growing economy what you have is high employment and low unemployment unemployment jobless rate Um, you know, you want that that number to go down and that's really you know, what's confirming Uh, the economy, right? So the unemployment rate fell last month in just more than half of us states Including the 12 where jobless rates dropped to record Lows so that's always a positive a positive sign Um, especially if you're obviously living in the in the u.s, right? But for us traders We're looking at um, you know why we would want to buy the dollar, right? So all signs really fundamentally are pointing to a stronger Economy, uh fed rate uh hiking rates, right? So with that being said, it's a no-brainer and it's been a no-brainer For a very long time and the guys in my private, you know, mentoring group would understand exactly why and just a quick reminder I guess as i'm talking about that That we do have uh enrollment will open on the 28th of march So we've got one day nine hours from the recording of this video and not only do you get the supply and demand Zone strategies capture pain relief stop hunts. Um, and and all that good stuff as well. Um, I'm you know, personally You know mentoring, you know the groups. I'm in there pretty much five days a week or six days a week. Um posting, you know videos and helping guys to really get to where they want to be and uh, I have also have You know an interviews playlist where you know, you can look for it on my channel on the youtube channel Where you can listen to traders who are in the group talk about their experience and the results that they've been getting So, um, just a reminder for anyone who is interested 28th of march 2022 So that's uh tomorrow, right? It's it's it opens and uh, i'm only going to be opening it from for really About maybe about five to seven days. I haven't decided yet, but I do want to um, I don't I don't really necessarily keep it open for that long Anyways getting back to the dollar So pretty much my bias is to the buy side any fresh areas of demand Really, you know confidence areas when buying other currencies like for example the dollar yen dollar swiss Talking about the dollar yen. Let's move on to the dollar yen. So dollar yen and um Yeah, we've got uh, this this this literally look at that price action that is literally unsustainable We cannot continue going higher. Um, you know for much longer I know a lot of traders including myself have been waiting to get involved in this But um, when you've got strong fundamentals and sentiment against you well for you matter of fact I shouldn't even say against you But um, you know, we were looking to go long but sometimes, you know, these things happen where you have to wait for a pullback Right, we're always waiting for at least a bargain So we were waiting here and it just didn't come down or anything like that Now we're waiting for, you know certain uh setups to uh to occur Unfortunately, you know, haven't been able to get involved in this trade But we have been fortunate enough to get involved in some others. Um, but anyways, uh dollar yen again, this was uh entirely, uh, I guess predictable not to say that You know, we're predicting where price is going to go But you know, we're talking about just likelihoods of prices doing what they're doing and um If anyone who's been paying attention and watches these videos on a regular basis and goes back over the You know the past year have been pretty much saying, you know, um to buy, you know Me for anyway is buying the the dollar against against the yen, right and uh HSBC In one of their latest reports a weaker yen continue amid uh amid higher us yields and deficits and just one of the key takeaways from this Some of the key takeaways from this is that the dollar yen surge to levels not seen since 2016 Mainly due to dollar yen monetary policy diverges. I talk about this all the time This is what fundamental analysis is is just a trade idea, right? One of one of the trade ideas anyways is is divergences in monetary policy, right? Which central bank is hiking rates, which one is cutting which one is um is is holding rates, right? So Um, fading risk aversion in japan's current account deficit may also contributed to a weaker yen. So, um Interesting, right says but the main driver should be fed yen policy divergence Now we do have to um You know be be cautious and be aware That risk off, you know, if it does intensify that pushes prices down really to where we want to be buyers, right? So if there's risk off sentiment for me anyway, again, I can't tell you what to do at home But uh, wherever you're watching this but for me I'm not looking to short because anyone who's been getting short on this has been getting Absolutely killed right traders would have been getting short at that level there In getting killed, you know looking at, you know zooming out looking at historical levels to try and get short Maybe somewhere around there. They would have been looking at Yep right there They would have tried to get short there thinking. Oh, you know, it's gonna it's gone up high enough, right? And then they've got you know caught in there in that trade, right? Or they've been stopped out or worse not even stopped out They would have suffered something from loss aversion bias Which would have caused them to move and remove their stop loss And now they're in you know, they considered risking one percent on their account down here Now they might be down I don't know 30 percent for example 40 percent 50 percent because they ever because of their inability to To accept the loss, right? So for me if prices come back down to this 119 area That's where I really want to be a buyer also as well just One of the confluences that I use Is is looking at Is moving moving fair value? I don't really want to call them moving averages because an average is really a fair value, right? When it comes to talking about price. So this blue Moving fair value is the monthly Which is the 21 day Because there's 21 days in a trading month. So this is the one month Moving fair value and where fair value at the moment is is at 118s to 117s. That's a simple and the exponential moving fair value Indicator so Anything above this any any when prices go above that what you're actually saying is is that this is an expensive price And you nobody wants to be buying expensive prices, you know Regardless whether it continues to go higher if you do good luck to you on that one But personally i'm a bargain hunter or at least you know the minute fair value Looking at you know this exchange rate to kind of come down because it always does again as I was saying this price action is totally Unsustainable, you know anything that goes, you know up like this when you've got you know several bullish candles in a row Higher closes a little bit tiny bit of a pause there but just continues going higher Eventually has to come down for several reasons, which I won't get into in this video, but Um For me my bias has been to the to the long side anyone who's been just trading technical analysis and going short at levels Historical levels has literally been losing money. Sometimes it's best to sit on your hands And we have to be patient and hopefully you know, I say hopefully it's just you know It will come back down to to certain levels and uh, hopefully that also aligns with you know The the moving fair value as a bit of confluence and yeah, we know that we're going to be if that's an expensive area Right and that potentially is a fair value area right fair value Then at least we do have some upside potential if prices do react around there, right because I'm not saying that they will but That's one of the areas that we're looking towards or looking to take When it comes to looking at, you know, uh, uh buy my bias anyways anyways, let's uh, let's move on spend enough time on the uh on the dollar yen So now looking at the dollar swiss dollar swiss and uh, many traders got involved in this in the group Uh, we're waiting for this pullback. There's always a pullback as I say Um, I was in this from down here. I didn't manage to add in in fact, I was saying to the guys in the group I got in on the uh on the pound um pound swiss on a stop hunt um Which were which actually worked out to be profitable got a nice two to one of one of my positions And now swing trading, uh, you know the the final position Hopefully for a few hundred pips if we can get even more than that But I got in really down here and I was waiting to add in so I'm already in this trade to be fair But I was waiting to add in but I was recording a video and editing a video and uh when I saw the entry I think prices had gone a bit too far for my liking Um, so I didn't want to chase price. So if prices do pull back before going higher I probably will look to look for an entry in and around that zone there Um But let's see what happens. But uh, yeah, so this is no matter what happens This is a profitable trade for me, but I know some guys who missed out on getting long down here This was a nice opportunity to get long and hopefully with the Um the dollar looking to strengthen and the swiss frank not you know, swiss national bank Not really looking to do anything with with rates at the moment, although their economy is doing okay Um I think this should want to move higher or at least, you know retest these the 94s So let's see. Let's see what happens. Um from a selling trade perspective from a supply zone You do have a nice supply zone here If you did want to look for any kind of short trades, I think that's probably the best area Technically we could look at that area there, but um, yeah Because it's lower highs lower lows, but um, again, it's not necessarily the strongest level of of supply for For certain reasons. So if you did want to get short, I do think around this 93 50 Half number would be decent for a short, but I think the best area would be definitely the highs moving on to the dollar cad And the the cad has been really kind of strengthening Over the past, you know, a couple weeks matter of fact against the Against the dollar commodity currencies not really interested in in in trading this pair Simply because you've got two Central banks that are looking to high crates. So it's a bit more of a difficult trade to take in my book Um, I'm really, you know focused more on the divergences So you've got a decent zone here If you are looking to be a buyer In this area and you think that dollar is an absolute bargain against the canadian dollar That's a decent zone to get long if not if you're looking for short trades And looking to buy the canadian dollar then really I think your your supply zone is already going to be all the way up here Um for a for a short trade. So you've got quite a few pips Pull back currently for for any kind of Short trades and looking to buy the canadian dollar versus the u.s. Dollar, but for me, it's not on my Not on my currency pairs to trade New Zealand dollar u.s. Dollar equally. So I'm not really looking to take this currency pair not trading this at all again. You've got two central banks hiking rates But you've had the new zealand dollar Making higher highs at the moment according to our fundamental analysis spreadsheet You've got the new zealand dollar is actually ranked number one, right? One being the strongest eight being the uh weakest the dollar is actually ranked number two Um on here and you can see really the divergence dollar yen two versus eight So that's you know, that's that's not still as long and it's been that way for for a while matter of fact And you can see the others You know, we've got a whole load of currency pairs. We've got all the currency pairs the major currency pairs. Anyway, think about me about 30 on here Which if you join you get access to anyways, um So for but for me, you know, when you've got one versus two ranked Again, it's a harder trade to take is very difficult to know which one should be the clear winner in it You know in a straight fight, right? Why bet on You know any kind of I guess If you want to call it a game or a match where you've got, you know, two competing teams, right? Which are equal in strength. It's a harder bet, right? Why not bet on, you know A strong versus a weak team and if you've got two strong teams, you know competing against each other It's very difficult to know who's going to you know, win in the in the short term medium or long term Anyways, any pullbacks if you do want to get long and that should really should be a demand zone Is a decent trade Technically or if you're looking for any kind of sell trades looking at, you know, buying the the us dollar Then that's really where you want to look for any kind of Short trades, but for me again, not really a pair that i'm i'm interested in It's a decent zone down here. I think as well from a demand zone perspective But um, but yeah move on pound dollar pound dollar again, not really my uh, my trade You've got again two central banks looking to High crates or that are hiking rates at the moment You've got a supply zone right here Um, you do have actually a demand zone currently right in there So prices are in that demand zone I think prices should probably end up ranging between this high and this low right here And I say ranging but auctioning between these two Fair value auction So any kind of buy trades if you want to be a buyer of the british pound and you think the british pound is a bargain Fundamentally against the dollar. I could probably say that would be the the best area This is between an expensive area and a bargain area for the pound. This is fair value Fair value is okay, but again between these two very difficult to To kind of derive which where where where uh Where value really is again, I think probably my bias would be more again to the short term Short term trading would be you know just to short the the the the pound against the dollars meaning that i'm looking to buy the dollar Basically Direction of travel should be to the downside the pound though on the other hand One second UK Hot UK inflation spurs biggest bets on rate cuts in 15 years strange one Traders see more than a quarter point reduction in two years bets come after Bank of England warns of weaker growth as cost surge so In fact, it's not really a strange one. Um, what happens is and I was explaining to the guys in the group is that inflation Prices when they get a bit out of control What happens is is that it can hurt the economy? Yeah, and this is one of the things as to why and I guess in the in the medium to long term Why i'm probably going to be a a shorter of the pound is that higher inflation um Basically causes people to stop spending in the economy because You've got rising living costs and living standards start to drop because you're spending more on things like petrol on heating your home and gas and cooking and food etc so In an environment like that People generally think just think about yourself, right? You tend to cut back on more frivolous stuff You know that that you would normally would when you have money in your pocket so There are you know, um Traders actually starting to bet Um on on rate cuts, you know, um, I wouldn't say in any time soon And let me just have a quick read through the article fastest inflation with normally Few expectations for higher interest rates. Yeah, right high interest rates Of course in the uk where price gains are the quickest in three Three decades traders are betting on rate cuts. So again What we would normally see is for interest rate hikes Yeah, but I think traders are getting ahead of themselves Or maybe they're getting ahead of themselves to use that term But they're probably thinking a bit more medium to long term and saying that because inflation is really rising quite rapidly in fact the you know once um inflation The bank of England does does have a cap on inflation get a cap on inflation at some point Then they're going to have to potentially cut rates And this is basically leading to what's known as potential stagflation. So A very very very difficult Situation for the for the bank of England to to be in when you have inflation that is just shooting through the roof And if you don't have the economy Supporting that then that's known as you know stagflation. So, uh, yeah It's uh, it's a bit of a difficult one for the uh for the pound at the moment And I think short term wise there are um The bank of England will have to Or kind of forced by inflation to hike rates But I think and again, maybe by the end of the year you could see You know the potential for um The the bank of England to either hold rates or look to potentially cut rates towards the end of the year That would would be something but um, it's not a necessary trade idea that i'm uh looking to trade just yet But with that on the horizon at some point maybe later this year next year Um, you know, the pound could be a potential uh short But for now for me the pound is uh is a it's still a buy as long as the bank of england or on their hiking cycle. Anyways um moving on to the euro dollar right euro dollar Uh drawing out the uh supply zones demand zones. I want to be a seller with this currency pair supply and some demand here now My bias is to the downside because i'm buying the u.s. Dollar So when he pull backs into a zone is where i'm looking to get short. There is a zone here Their supplies i'm not the strongest supply zone in the world But it's there um I'd probably look for some sort of potential stop hunt in and around this uh one third one one eleven three area or if not A uh short trade if it does come up to the 112s, but it may or may not I know there's a lot of banks forecasting, you know 109s 108s So this this could start to still roll over but any pull backs. I think are uh Are a shorting opportunities and then we also do have the um the ecb president christine lagarde plays down concerns about Euro stagflation again stagflation being when you have rising inflation, but the economy is not growing right It's it's either flatlining or going in the opposite direction More the contraction um phase of the economic cycle. So that's it again It's a difficult situation and the reason why that would be for the economy is because again the russia russia's war in the ukraine Will have consequences for growth. Yeah for for economic growth. So Um, it's it's a hard one difficult one for them to be in and when you contrast where europe are Right in comparison to where for example The us are in terms of, you know, goldman sacks hiking rates fed williams hike rates Janet yellen says no weakness in the economy Jobless rate of falling and then you go to europe Yeah, and christine the guard is saying, you know that there's potential She's even using the word stagflation. There's a divergence there, right? So for me the path of this resistance should be to the downside I'm not saying it's going to go down this week. Right. I have no idea Right that what's going to happen week to week. I just know that in the medium to long term If that continues then prices should be down here in the same way that we've been saying, you know to short Well, you know been You know the guys have been seeing in the group that we've been shorting All pullbacks, you know on the on the dollar why any pullbacks have been Shorting opportunities Right, that's pretty much it. So that hasn't really changed too much fundamentally or risk sentiment wise But that is subject to change depending on if the, you know, europe can get their act together Moving on to the australian dollar us dollar and the ozzy dollar again A bit of a difficult one the um to trade fundamentally the uh, the australian dollar has been in absolutely brilliantly and we've now, you know talks of rate hikes potentially You know the the market is getting ahead of of the narrative, right? And this is basically what fundamentals is all about is You know, you can't if you're looking to buy when they start up when they actually high crates You're already, you know, too late. You've already been left behind And so if you are looking to buy the australian dollar against the us dollar, which I personally am not doing um, then that's a decent zone to get along if you're looking to buy the us dollar against the uh The australian dollar right now is a decent sure, but for me again, you've got um To even though the us dollar is ahead potentially of course potentially, but it is ahead of the australian dollar When it comes to monetary policy I do think this is a Harder trade to take in my opinion There are better trades to you know buy the dollar against as well as even buy the australian dollar like for example You know as we're coming up to the ozzy yen, right the ozzy yen Ozzy yen look at that right again quite parabolic in nature um The yen being obviously the weaker out of the two Right, um, and we've got Uh again just just we we need prices to really kind of have a pullback or show that there's demand somewhere Right, there's got to be some demand and then a pullback into that zone So, uh, let's see what happens because how many pips is that just eyeballed that maybe about what's that 92 to that's about 700 pips 600 pips it needs to pull back and uh, I don't don't know whether it'll do it anytime soon Probably maybe some sort of risk of sentiment may push in some narrative You know may push prices down um To a degree, but let's see what happens and again just think to kind of show you on here You know that's one of the what's that one two three four one of the fifth strongest divergences at the moment according to our spreadsheet Which is three versus eight, right and again, that's been like that for for a for a while so looking at um and back to the um The uh ozzy yen at the moment just no trade setups, right? Zero trade setups from a buy-in perspective even from a selling perspective and a shorting perspective I think we are Yes, there's nothing really there. There's probably some sort of weekly demand supply zone there But it's not even worth putting in anyways, let's see what happens Let you know the market show you where an expensive area is by pulling back and then look for potential demand zones Or the creation of new demand zones and then moving on to finally gold and gold Moving higher as expected Nice buying opportunity within that zone there and then there was a zone here. So probably delete that one there Nice buying opportunity um coming down to that 19 1900 area prices are going higher and again when you've got The only thing really kind of going against gold if you really want to call it going against gold is just the fact that the dollar isn't Is one of the strongest currencies And the gold and the dollar at the moment are moving in the same direction But when you consider everything else when you consider high inflation where you consider risk off tensions, you know, russia Ukraine when you consider a china potential economic slowdowns And and you know some other others that are you know risk events that are on, you know, the The horizon You know, there is I guess Very there's more reasons to buy gold than than than not right and in fact, I think it was Yeah, it was it was the united overseas bank head of market strategy hing koon How now how sorry sees strong safe haven inflows into gold right so lifting to 2200 dollars an ounce right so Again the the smart money At the moment looking at, you know prices being somewhere around here 2200 dollars right and where we are so any pullbacks If you're lucky enough should be potentially buying opportunities Not saying it's going to bounce off of that let that that area there if it pulls back It could go even deeper right it could go even deeper But the point being is that just because prices do something you have to look at, you know This is as value right this is just value and an opportunity to buy for cheap If nothing fundamentally or risk sentiment has changed so any pullbacks Potentially buying opportunities if things do turn around and everything starts to get sorted out with everything in the world inflation starts to come down and You know Russia Ukraine, you know kiss and make up then in fact this would be a very You know decent short trade Technically very nice. I say it's a decent but very nice short trade We are around these highs so that's where we are with gold and Yeah, quite a detailed one this week and just a quick reminder again in case you missed it that the mentoring is open Tomorrow 28th of March depending on when you're watching this if you're watching this on a Sunday, it would be tomorrow but 28th of March The trading when a discord group is open It will be only be open for a limited time So maybe I might do it for me about five days maybe until Friday or Saturday and then That's going to be it for you know a good few months or so Like to keep the group really kind of concentrated and small and it's really a better way to teach traders When it comes to everyone being on the same page if people start, you know Joining at different times, you know, someone joins in March someone joins in April someone joins in May It's not really the way to you know, we don't do that in school right in education So, you know, there's an intake so everyone can be on the same page. So this week It's going to be open then it's going to be closed for again a few months if you missed out You've been waiting to join trading 180 and the mentoring Mentoring group Then this is you know, your opportunity also as well. Please have a look at the playlist that I've created With really the traders in the group talking about their experience and Results and how trading 180 has really helped them to you know, get to where they want to be in their trading Anyways guys, take care. Have a great week and I'll speak to you all soon