 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is Friday, which means it is time to talk the English Primarily not the most robust slate for this weekend But still some pretty fun matches on tap to break those down We'll have Austin cast on to break down his thoughts on Saturday slate and also get you sent for Tottenham versus Chelsea coming up on Sunday This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass You can find his work over at number fire calm check out Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass Austin welcome back in today. How you doing? Doing pretty well. Thanks for having me. How are you? I am doing a fantastic there are spring training games for today So pretty jazzed about that had to break out the twins hat for that trying to Consol myself after Northwestern blew a big lead against that other Illinois College last night. So, you know, we're just trying to to recoup apparently they're not allowed to be Illinois teams But sorry, they're about allowed to be all Indiana teams apologies Like I don't know. Is this a bad way to start off the show here. You sit Not better not better at all there were a lot of bad tweets about like the Northwestern Indiana game a couple weeks ago So we'll let Twitter handle that we'll talk here about the EPL for today. We're gonna break down awesome thoughts on How to alter things when there are midweek matches if you should alter things We'll talk a little about the top of the table once again man city How they're setting up right now and then get you said for this weekend I'll finish up by talking about some more NASCAR stuff later on after Fandall added top 10 bets for last night All that coming up here in just one second the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to Covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Ed Feng is back with an it with us next week Brandon Gidula back with us next week as well. We have NBA PGA NHL EPL NASCAR College basketball all covered in this same space So go to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well The midway point of the NBA season is here and now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win Just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use You can bet on everything from the money line to point scores and three strained plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets For a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in bonus bets Make every moment more a Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first Online real money wager only ten dollar deposit required refund issued is not let's rob a bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at fandall.com sportsbook gambling problem call 1 a hundred gambler What was the fandall.com slash rg in Arizona 100 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1 8887 897 777 or visit the ccpg dot org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1805 222 In Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1877 770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help org in New York Why it's 778 open wire text open Y in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net now Austin one of my tasks for this offseason in My NFL stuff is making sure I'm properly accounting for rest in the NFL I want to make sure I'm not over under accounting Under accounting for that kind of thing because I think it doesn't matter in the NFL on the EPL side of things We've got some teams with midweek matches coming up Tuesday Wednesday stuff like that. Does that matter for you? Do you alter things when a team has a midweek match coming up or is coming off midweek match or is it pretty much a status quo? It's mostly business as usual But I think that's a really good question One exception I would note is if the team is coming off a midweek match in their most recent game So if the team plays Saturday Maybe just play Tuesday or Wednesday And especially if it's a European match One of the big differences in the Premier League or just any domestically compared to our leagues here is there's almost no travel Really all the teams are within the country So one of the exceptions is when a team plays in a European game maybe the game before and then Which actually is the case for Manchester City this weekend they play Saturday, but they just played in Germany on Wednesday, so it's just really rare for there to be a situation where a team had just had to travel that much Doesn't really have much practice time So it typically results in them either Rotating the squad maybe giving some guys a rest so feeling a little bit worse of a lineup or Feeling the same lineup that could possibly be negatively impacted by that travel, but just in general for For the most part, it's not much of a factor. Really. I don't think yeah So do you tend to be wary of teams coming off of a trip outside of the UK? Or is a situation where the difference for you is not big enough where it's gonna dramatically impact the way you view a team Most of the time I would say it's not big enough for me okay, and some of its situation-based Man City this weekend have a lot to play for because they're in a title race if there was a team that Didn't have much to play for which with the way they have promotion relegation Top four and stuff. There aren't that many teams that don't have anything to play for but if there was a team that didn't Maybe that I would downgrade them more significantly than I would other teams So let's talk about Man City because it's been a while since we talked about them Versus Arsenal when we had you on Man City was plus money. They're now minus 110 whereas Arsenal is at even money When you look at the table right now Austin Do you still think that Man City holds the edge here or has anything shifted in your eyes since we last talked about the futures market here? So I think the first time I came on a few weeks back I said this should be a really fun market and that's really been the case It's really swung back both ways here in the past few weeks I'm still on the side of Man City but Even though City won the recent head-to-head match with Arsenal and Arsenal have dropped their levels in recent games. I still don't feel as good about this as I used to But I'm still on city for two main reasons the biggest of which is there the better team by Every reps expect a goal differential. They're nine goals better They also have a friendlier schedule the rest of the way Arsenal still have to play at Liverpool and at Newcastle In addition to playing at City Meanwhile City get both Liverpool and Newcastle at home as well as hosting that pivotal match with Arsenal So everything I said the first time I came on still mostly holds true I'm still given the slight edge to Man City And that's the way the betting markets have it as well So let's say you hadn't gotten in a Man City when they were plus money You're looking at minus 110. Is that a bet for you or is that a fair market where you're staying away? I would say it's fair and I'm staying away. Yeah, I think that makes sense Especially knowing that you could have got them at a much better number previously And if you've maybe lowered your thoughts in them a little bit I think that it makes sense to stay away at minus 110. Okay, we got a six match say coming up on Saturday Let's start things off in the traditional market. It's awesome. Look at these EPL matches for Saturday specifically Anything stand out to you as being of value right now So I'm going to keep the theme going and stick with Man City for the road match at Bournemouth They're 340 to win minus 340 to win and I don't really want to mess with that number at all But I think there's value in the correct score market specifically with City to win 2-0 or 3-0 Which were priced at plus 550 and plus 800 By every refs expect a golden parental City are the best team in the Prem and Bournemouth are the worst and both teams hold that spot by Some distance Bournemouth are 5.8 XG worse than the second to last team while City are 9 XG better than the second best team Through the years Just in recent season City have really dominated matches against these lesser teams And that's mostly held true this season in five matches against teams Currently in the bottom five of the tables City have won the XG battle by a per match average of 2.5 to 0.3 They've given up 0.2 XG or fewer in three of those five games Then the first meeting with Bournemouth City amassed 1.7 XG while holding the cherries to 0.1 and the final score is 4-0 So I think City rolls again, and I like the prices on them at 2-0 and 3-0 Right now the numbers are talking about the 3-0 is plus 750 the 2-0 is plus 550 Do you have a preference between those two awesome if you were placing just one wager? I think I would do the 3-0 at plus 800 But I really do like them both. I just think City have a lot to play for obviously with with the title race with Arsenal and They've really really dominated the worst teams in the league this year even if the bottom Bottom line results haven't always reflected that which is kind of the case last weekend when they tied with not even for us So I like them 3-0 at plus 800. Yeah So that's where we're looking for man city right now in that matchup versus Bournemouth Austin likes 3-0 That's currently plus 750 now at Fandals sportsbook slight preference for that over the plus 550 on the 2-0 correct score there So that's a traditional market any player props you like on Saturday Austin In the Lester Arsenal game, I like James Madison to be booked which is priced at plus 400. I think No, that's a funny term for us he Leads Lester and yellow cards with six and he's been booked in two of his last five matches versus big six sides You should have to be really active in the midfield against Arsenal and he might find himself in some difficult situations Which could lead to a yellow card Right now. He's four to one. Is that the price it was that when you were looking at it earlier on? Yeah, yeah, okay Do you like this market because I find this market fascinating I've obviously never bet it, but it seems like a fun one to bet What leads you to like? What's the thought process and like oh, I think this guy might get a card in this game So I'm usually looking at midfielders on teams who are a little over matched Probably in the match, which is definitely the case that Madison's a midfielder for Lester They're gonna be without the ball a lot Which means he's gonna be doing a lot of running around Oh trying to make a lot of tackles in the middle of the field and Typically the two most common ways to get a yellow card are either one really bad foul or just an accumulation of fouls Yeah, so I think both of those are in play for him in this match And he is actually more of an attack-minded player So he's not very good at the defending stuff so he could commit that one bad foul pretty much anytime in the game I Love that that's the Lester versus Arsenal matchup Madison is four to one to be booked there I think we need like a personal foul market in the NFL to if we can like work on that If we could bet personal fouls in the NFL may have been holding I don't know, you know, we'll we'll workshop this I want a similar market in the NFL at some point. That's Saturday matches Yeah, sorry. I'm sorry. I was gonna say really fun Because they can get a yellow card for just yelling at the official has nothing to do with the game You know, so if you bet on I gotta get a yellow card and he's talking to the ref You're kind of hoping it things to get out of hand like I hope he does cross that line baby cross that line Give me that cash, you know, just That's that's that's a fun little incident we're for okay. That's a Saturday matches Let's talk now about Sunday pretty big match here when Tottenham and Chelsea in the markets here Relatively even Austin where you seem value for this match at Fandall Sportsbook So Chelsea have been a really tough team to figure out all year. Maybe the toughest team in the league and They've got a new manager. They added a bunch of players in the January transfer window So they're still a work in progress and the results have not been there They've got just one win in their last 10 matches, which is just really terrible for a club of their size But according to expected goals, they've kind of started to turn the corner in that 10 game slide They've lost the XG battle just three times and two of those were matchups with Manchester City Chelsea have been pretty Just like extremely unlucky actually going forward. They've scored just three goals over their previous seven matches despite having 11.3 expected goals in that time So it's not all bad luck city deserves or sorry Chelsea deserves some of the blame for the poor finishing and They haven't really nailed down a striker who can consistently score goals for them But with that said they've they've got a ton of talent. There's definitely been some bad luck at play So I'm on them against Tottenham. I think Tottenham's defense might be the perfect remedy for Chelsea They Tottenham's conceded at least 1.0 expected goals and nine of their last 11 matches And they've been a little fortunate all year kind of the opposite of Chelsea They're fourth in the table, but seventh by expected goal differential. So I think this match It's kind of a nice chance to buy low on Chelsea They're 190 on the money line and plus sorry plus 190 and then plus 106 and the tie no bet market I like both of those with my preference being Chelsea at plus 190 on the money line Yeah, that is for the money line where you are 90 minutes plus stoppage time Chelsea plus 190 to win there plus 106 in the tie no bet market for Austin He said the preference is plus 190 on the money line there for Chelsea versus Tottenham Which is coming up on Sunday, which should be a fun match and betting on regression always a fun thing for sure That is Austin cast make sure you check him out on a Twitter at Austin cast You can find his work as mentioned over at number fire.com. He does an EPL DFS helpers You want to play some DFS over on the EPL side of things as well Austin? I appreciate the time. Good luck to you with EPL stuff for this weekend Enjoy the matches and we'll talk to you again here very soon Sounds good. Thank you Jim. All right You check out Austin casts on Twitter at Austin cast and again all his work over at number fire comm slowly getting me to understand the EPL, which is a a work in progress for sure on my end now we talked about NASCAR yesterday show and I went through the markets and talked about some outrides I liked and a couple other things and one thing we did not discuss was the top 10 market and They put up odds at Vandalsports book last May and there are a couple that I think are pretty good value So I wanted to run through those very quickly here Specifically there are two that I like and those two are Daniel Suarez at plus 270 and Michael McDowell at plus 650 and both these guys are Getting love in my model for very similar reasons and those reasons are they were pretty good on tracks that Check similar boxes last year and I said that very intentionally in the way that I'm saying that it may sound odd, but it's because There's no really similar track to Fontana You don't have tracks that have big top-end speed. They also feature a lot of tire fall off So I'm looking at tracks that either that have one or the other tracks that a lot of speed or tracks that feature a decent heavier decent tire fall off and at those tracks both Suarez McDowell Finish inside the top ten four to ten four to seven races So well above their implied marks there and you can't just take that a face value that's not gonna that's not gonna be the right way to play things but When I look at what they did they were also doing it pretty legitimately and doing it at faster tracks McDowell My big concern with him is that front-row motorsports is not the fastest team They're not the most well-funded team and that typically means that tracks like this They're not gonna hang but last year being the first year in the next gen era We actually did see McDowell run pretty well at similar tracks a Pocono Which is big big big big big speed track. He finished top ten there had a top ten run Darlington top ten in Charlotte Which I'm starting to put in the the heavier tire fall off bucket based on what happened there in the Spring race last year the Coca-Cola 600. There's a lot more tire fall off in that one. So I Thought McDowell really impressed in that arena and it showed me that from motorsports is not a great team But they're fast enough when they have a good driver to potentially get a top ten and McDowell Near his peak age Drivers send a peak around age 39 McDowell is creeping up around there So he's hitting his peak had a lot of top ten runs last year It's plus 650 for a reason, but I still think there's value in that now He was 14 to 1 last night and that was outrageous His implied odds have doubled since then which means that by my still being above the market now It means I'm basically saying that that first opening line was bad. I'm okay saying that personally I've got his implied odds still above 13.3% of plus 650 So I think McDowell plus 650 for a top 10 a good bet to make right now The other guy is Daniel Suarez again plus 270 I talked about him yesterday And I talked about liking him at plus 170 so clearly I got a bad number and that sucks It's never fun to get a bad number when you're betting because I could have gotten something better If I had patience waited til fangirl opened and gotten this plus 270 But the thought process for Suarez that led to the plus 170 love is still there a plus 270 He finished fourth in this race last year kind of flukey because there was a lot of chaos towards the end of that race So I don't care that he finished there and my model doesn't know that he finished there It doesn't factor in finishing position So it doesn't know that he finished there still he had some other good runs last year He had a really good car in Michigan didn't finish well in that race But had a fast car there had a pretty fast car in Charlotte as well Which again does did feature more tire fall off last year had some decent runs elsewhere attracts with tire fall off so I'm not like the biggest Daniel Suarez guy in terms of like talent But I think track house racing is very good equipment I think that Suarez showed last year is good enough to take advantage of that equipment in the right spots So I think plus 270 a very fair number for I should value plus 170 and They open plus 270. I got a bad number that could mean that my Model is too high on Suarez, which is very possible. It's early in the year I can always be wrong for sure, but I know the thought process that leads me to being there and I'm okay Buying into that thought process with Suarez. So to me plus 270 disappointing I didn't get the best number, but still I think a very good number for Suarez One that I like and one that I'm willing to bet so Daniel Suarez plus 650 the plus 270 The other place I want to go for top 10 bets in NASCAR I'm not sure if Andy will keep the same cadence as far as when they released top 10 bets They came out late Thursday night if they keep that cadence I'll probably have to move the NASCAR discussion to be on the Friday shows because I don't want to talk about it twice necessarily, but I Do you want to get the top 10 bets in there? They tend to be pretty good ones. Fandals hold on top 10 bets is much lower than what you have a lot of other books So I want to squeeze as a maybe we'll talk outright Thursday top 10s Friday to keep the same Order of releasing but we'll figure things out as they go along as we further this season I'll probably keep it on Thursdays primarily But if top 10 bets could post a later on we could circle back and talk about those on Friday as well That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread I want to give a big thank you once again to Austin cast for swinging by talking about the English premiere league for this week Find also on Twitter at Austin cast and check out his work over at number fire calm I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis and J. I am s a n n e s Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread to get these shows as they go live each and every week day Big week next week with Brandon and Ed back We'll talk to them about some PGA and some College basketball to get you ready for it should be a fun next couple of months in the sporting world We'll talk to you all once again Monday. Have a fantastic weekend This is then covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network