 Hello, welcome to this month's monthly webinar with me, Michael Houston and my colleague in Canada, Colin Zizinski, and this is the opportunity whereby we have a look at what's going on in the markets, what we think is going to happen over the course of the next few days and weeks. Have a look at some interesting chart patterns and basically just chuck around a load of thoughts about where we think the markets are going to be going over the next few days. Try and digest this week's data, see whether or not it will make any difference to the overall direction of stock markets, currency markets or what have you, but first and foremost I have to do the statutory risk warning, so that's on your screen right now. Once we've done that and got that out of the way, Colin and myself can then basically get down to actually crunching the charts and going through the various markets to really determine where we're going to go next. Obviously we've seen a significant decline in equity markets over the past two to three weeks, but at the moment we're in the middle of a bit of a bounce back and I think really what the key question is here is whether or not this bounce back is going to be sustainable or whether it's the start of a new leg lower in equity markets. Just not forget we've been in an uptrend for about the past five years, everyone's been trying to pick the top in this market, I've been trying to pick the top in this market for the past year or so, with very little success, had slightly more success on the currency front, but at least for them you've got a little bit more push-pull in terms of central bank policy. With respect to equity markets it's pretty much won my bet, so I think the real question here is whether or not we've seen the highs or whether or not we've just seen a little bit of a pullback before we go and retest the highs. Now US markets haven't corrected anywhere near as much as European markets and I don't think that's really too hard to understand why. The fact is the Federal Reserve is still doing stimulus albeit only till October and it's still maintaining its very easy monetary policy. Now I think what we're going to do Colin is we're probably going to start thinking on the S&P and the Dow because I think that's something that you really want to talk about, isn't it? Yes, that'd be fantastic Michael, so if you could open up the S&P chart. Okay, forgive all the clutter, but if we just make that slightly bigger there, we can see there straight away we've got a bullish engulfing candle which does seem to suggest that we have got a little bit of a rebound on the cars and we did hold that series of highs through April and May on the move down. But you want to expand on that, don't you? Yes, absolutely. I mean the longer term uptrend for the S&P certainly remains intact. We're not talking about when we're looking at things, we're not looking at the end of the trend, but what we are looking at is historical seasonality. August and September historically have been the worst months of the year. Four stocks, part of the push-up to new highs in late July had been driven by earnings reports. Earnings reports are starting to dry up in the US as we clear out of the retailers over the next week or so and then that's it. Things go pretty quiet through to the end of September on the earnings front. So we're seeing today we're having an inside day where basically they're consolidating pretty close to yesterday's highs. We are sitting just below 1950, which is a significant because we had a polarity reversal there. We've had an old support level emerging as new resistance. If it breaks that, certainly the chart shows you could easily take a run back at that one big negative candle filling up to 1970, even possibly take another run at 1990. But if you falter here, you're looking at 1910. So at this point on the strategy side, it's a 50-50 trade. You could go up 40 points, you could go down 40 points from here. And which way of it breaks out of this 1945-1950 range will give us a better idea of which way it's heading. Yeah, I mean, those are really the key levels that I'm looking at. I mean, it was a double tap on the downside there before it, and essentially what we've got here is a double top. And in any double top breakout, you've got the two highs there. You've got the two lows there. You've got the break lower. We've hit the target. We've come back. That should act as resistance. If it doesn't act as resistance and break through it, then the likelihood is it'll go for another run at the top side. But at the moment, we're in what I would call no man's land. And I certainly wouldn't have a strong idea one way or the other as to where that's going to go. I suppose potentially, Colin, you could put a trend line in through these highs here, perhaps, to give you some sort of indication as to where we're going to go next. Broken out of it. Which I think we've probably broken. No, we haven't. No quake? No quake. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that. Let's change that to a four hour chart. And it could probably give you a better indication of where we are. And you can see that through there. So that comes in around about 1955, 1960, but also in line with that 200 event moving average as well. So certainly potential for a little bit more upside, but what I would like to see for us to continue to move higher is a close really, I think, above that trend line at 1951 and a half, more than anything, to suggest that we're going to go higher. Otherwise, I think there's a good potential for maybe us just to continue to trade sideways. It does look to me like you could have a trading range emerging here between, say, 1900 and 2000. You've got, this whole rally of the last few weeks really has been a pretty oversold conditions as you see on the stochastics. And one thing I noticed on the four hour chart was you were starting to get a negative divergence in the stochastics, a higher low, while you had a higher high in the index. So you're probably into a situation where we're going into some kind of sideways trading patterns on the US indices. And after that, now, Michael, could you also show the NASDAQs or something I wanted to mention there? Sure, okay, that's about it. As you can see, there's another bullish engulfing there and a long shadow on that candle as well. The NASDAQ, yeah? The NASDAQ, we're getting some really interesting technical signals. And what I see that is, if you looked on the, first at the bottom here, on the stochastics, it shows us more of a triple top, but on the, could you bring up the RSI, Michael? Sure, what sort of RSI do you want? How many then? Just the classic is fine, the classic default. Okay. Could certainly do that. Or, yeah. That one or a different one? Actually, the single line? Yeah, the single line, please. Single line, okay, we could do that. Thanks, just what I wanted to show here. I'll get rid of that, there you go. Thank you. You have here between June and July, you actually have a head and shoulders top in the RSI and you're starting to get a head and shoulders top in the index in July and August. So, you've already had a bearish indicator in the RSI. Now, what I'm watching for here to see is, is this where we're starting to stall a little bit? Do we roll over and carve out a right shoulder here? Or does it end up getting called off and we take another run at 4,000? You have a small double top there near 4,000. So, you're getting some technical indicators starting to add all pile up, suggesting that your momentum is running out here on the NASDAQ and basically you're at a point where if you don't break 4,000 soon, you probably are looking at a fairly significant correction, perhaps back to this 3835, which is emerging as a neckline for a head and shoulders top. Yeah, I mean, obviously an awful lot of this rally, particularly I think in the US markets, is really down to perceptions of US monetary policy. And those retail sales numbers earlier this week were once again an indication that despite the fact that we do appear to have had strong growth in the second quarter, I think the likelihood is we could get a revision down on that. But also if you look at the direction of travel with respect to retail sales over the past four months, they've come in at 0.6, 0.5, 0.3, and flat. And yet consumer confidence is rising. So for me, the US recovery, I don't think is as strong as people seem to make it out. And I certainly don't think the Fed thinks so either, not judging by the narrative that appears to be coming out from the Federal Reserve at the moment. And we could get some color on that, couldn't we? Later this month at Jackson Hole on the 21st of August. Absolutely, the Jackson Hole Conference is a particularly important one for the Fed. All the main Fed members go there. And in the past, Chairman Bernanke in particular used that conference to telegraph changes in monetary policy. He had talked before at the conference and then come out with some of the things like Kiwi programs or Twist programs or Teapering or what have you. So it's a really important one. People do look to what the Fed is saying there. And what I'm expecting is that we'll probably continue to see a dovish talk from Chair Yellen because not only is she noted that, but I mean the whole point of this Teapering program and continuing the dovish talk from Yellen and likely also from Stanley Fisher, the nominee for vice chair is that everybody knows that the last two times the Fed ended Kiwi programs, Kiwi one and two, the market fell by 10% within three months. So one of the things they've been trying to do by winding it down over the course of most of a year rather than going cold turkey and by keeping the dovish talk is to try and avert a major stock market correction in our short term crash. And they're trying not to crash the markets basically because what you're looking at is a situation where all this liquidity boosts stocks to a certain extent it can over inflate stock prices and push up valuations. So the Fed's trying to avoid another big drop off the end of this and that's where, so what we're looking at from next week is you'll probably see from the top people some fairly dovish comments from some of the other FOMC members that you may see some more hawkish comments. We had the first hawkish dissenter at the last meeting so it may come out being clear as much from the Fed, but we'll see, I think the important thing is that they're not, clearly they're not, they're not going to be following the October end of tapering in December with a rate increase that's likely still getting pushed off sometime into next year, well into next year. I think that'll be well into next year and pretty much in line with the Bank of England earlier this week. I always felt that expectations of a rate hike this year in the UK were optimistic at best and certainly that has been proved. But before we talk about that, we're currently on the indices, let's look at the German DAX because we've certainly seen a very sharp sell-off in that over the past six weeks and we've seen a quite significant reversal and it does appear to be looking as if it's carved out base. There's a couple of things, guys, ladies and gents, I'd like you to look at. First and foremost is this pattern that I've highlighted on the chart here. Now I'm a big follower of candlestick patterns and reversal patterns in particular and this one in particular does seem to suggest that we could get some form of rebound. This is what I would call a piercing pattern. It's not quite a bullish engulfing pattern. It's almost there, but it's not quite. So let's go into a little bit of detail about that because I think this gives you an indication of the candlestick patterns that I pay closest attention to. So ignoring the bottom two, these are the ones that I usually find the most compelling and they have to happen at the end of an uptrend in the case of the bearish engulfing line or the dark cloud cover or at the end of a downtrend in terms of the bullish engulfing line and the piercing pattern. And if you blend the candles, they can also take the form of a hammer or a type of gravestone or doji. So in the case of the Nikkei, what we've got Nikkei, sorry, in the case of the Dax, we've got a piercing pattern. It's not as powerful as an engulfing pattern, but it's nonetheless, give you an indication that maybe the recent selling pressure that we saw on the Dax, and it did fall 11% and it did fail to get below with any significant conviction the previous support level which we saw in March this year. So if I just quickly flick away from that, you can see that on this chart here. These are the March lows here around about 8,911 and we made a low of 8,903. And yes, we did break below this little trend line that I've drawn here, but we weren't able to close below it. And because we weren't able to close below it and because we held above the support line here and the oscillator was oversold, there was a good chance we could get a sharp snapback. And that is exactly in fact what we got. Now what we wanna see is a move below, sorry, a move above these twin highs here. So these twin highs here are between around about 9,260. So yes, we've seen some very disappointing European economic data this week. Yep, the Dax is off its lows. So that tells me one of two things. Basically, it's already priced in or B, there's an expectation, however misguided, but the ECB may be minded to do further stimulus if not before the end of this year, certainly at the beginning of next year because certainly the outlook for the Euro area does appear to be what I would call rather subdued. Is there anything you wanna add to that Colin? Yes, I just wanted to note the, if you look at that dip below the trend line and then the rebound, the piercing pattern, that also is a one day pattern I call a bear trap. It's not a full key reversal because you didn't end up higher, but in this case you were down in the trend, you broke that support line. So you took out a whole bunch of stops, they all got knocked down and then you ended up with the buyers coming in and just driving it. You closed near the high on your day. Your actual subsequent candles have basically been holding above that high more or less except for a couple of weeks that dipped a little bit below. So you've got very quickly resistance becoming supported at a higher level and you've got that nice upturn out of an deeply oversold position on the stochastics. And could you draw a trend line on that stochastic, Michael? Because I think you're getting pretty close to busting that downtrend too. If you go off the second high. For that one. Yeah, if you go off that high and put it through those two, it looks like you're starting to break out of the downtrend in the RSA. So again, your downward pressure is easing, your upward momentum is starting to build. So at this point, how far you get is questionable because you've got that 9260 initial resistance. The next one after that though is up closer into that 9380, 9400 area where those two candles have those low and high that bit of congestion in there is probably your next one. So you still got some room for a technical rebound in the DAX from here as well. And I mean, looking here at the four hours, you kind of look like a head and shoulders. A head and shoulders bottom as well. Yeah. So you've got a lot of really nice technical indicators coming together telling you that that you've got a good shot and a nice bounce here. So certainly this 9260-70 level does look even more important when you actually look at the four hour chart because you've got an inverse head and shoulders. And there actually on the lows there, you've got a nice bullish engulfing pattern there as well which has then filled the gap and moved higher. So actually working out quite nicely with that particular pattern and that does seem to suggest that maybe we could get a push higher if we break above this was just line 9260, which brings me on to the Euro because I think the Euro's been quite interesting. We've looked at the Euro dollar. Well, look at the Euro dollar initially because I covered that in my weekly video this week. And again, using candlestick pattern recognition, we can come at a particularly, we can come at it from a fairly good angle. If we look at this candle here, this is what is a hammer. And in Japanese candlestick parlance, the market is potentially hammering out a bit of a base. Now the next candle here didn't take out the previous low. So that keeps that hammer pattern intact. The candle subsequent to that then posted a bullish engulfing day. So once again, the high was higher and the low was actually higher as well. So that does seem to suggest that there's a certain amount of what I would call, there's a certain amount of shorts in there and they lack the momentum to push the Euro lower. You think about all the bad data that we've had this week, all the bad data that we've had this week and the Euro hasn't been able to break lower. At some point, markets and traders will get sick and tired of pushing it lower and potentially take it higher. So at the moment, what we've got here is a bit of a consolidation between 133.30 on the downside and 134.30 on the top side. Now you can argue that this is a double top, double bottom, whatever. I'm gonna just draw a horizontal line through that, there. I'm gonna draw a horizontal line through there and potentially we have a double bottom. Let's take that down to a four hour chart. Again, it's a similar sort of look and feel here. Now you could argue that this is resistance here but what we can determine from this particular chart is that we are trading in a bit of a range. It is a little bit toppy above 134 but if we break through 134.5, we could get quite a significant move higher. On the flip side, we could get a significant move through 133.30 if we break below it. Is there anything you want me to add on that, Colin? Or do you want me to move on to Euro sterling? Because I know you wanna talk about that. This is a very solid base here that's coming in and I'd really like to go to Euro sterling, please, Michael. I think that's a really powerful chart there. So we've got Euro dollar and given the fact that Euro dollar is looking fairly well bid and then the pound against the dollar is looking a little bit soft, the recent downtrend in Euro sterling bears looking at because does the Euro sterling chart support potential for a higher Euro? Well, if we look at this daily chart here, I know Colin wants to talk about this but we are looking at, we are starting to move that oversold but that's irrelevant. Colin, I'll let you take over now. I thank you, Michael. You've been in a downtrend in Euro pound, a very, very consistent steady downtrend running through March, right until the last few days. But what we had here since the beginning of July is we had it quietly working its way down, kind of a double bottom, a little bit of a double bottom here just under 79 and then quietly starting to work its way up. If you could draw a line through 80, please, what you'll find is that basically you're getting what we call a rounded or a saucer bottom in this where you had some declines, lower lows, and then you had a nice base and then you're starting to get higher lows. You've now broken out of this saucer bottom through 80. On top of that, this downtrend line that had gone through March through the beginning of August, you've already broken that as well. So you've broken out of a downtrend, you've broken out of a base, your stochastics are telling you that it's basically working its way nicely. Momentum is still turning positive here. Your first resistance is up closer to this, closer, I'm thinking at around 80-60 and then 81-60 is your first Fibonacci retracement, which is, so you've got some room for a really nice rebound here. And it's the case where for most of this year you had the speculation had been that the Bank of England would be much more hawkish than the ECB that the Bank of England was about to raise rates, the ECB is about to bring in more LTR stimulus and now you're starting to get a little bit of a reversal in that with the press of how they've gotten too strong relative to the euro and that's now starting to reverse itself. So anyway, you look at another case where you've got a number of technical indicators coming together on the very short term, you're getting a little bit of a triple top in the stochastic. You may see some consolidation here, perhaps in this 80-80-30, but you have already had one successful retest of the breakout point as new support, so that's encouraging as well. Yeah, and that's this level through here. We've broken above 80, we've come above it, we've tested back below it. Note the long lower shadow on the candle. That suggests that basically there's good buying interest down at those levels, in the same way that we had it here as well, long lower shadows suggest that generally there's good buying interest at those levels, particularly if the subsequent finishing candle is green. That's usually an indication that there's good buying interest at those particular levels when you get those sorts of long lower shadows so close together. So the euro sterling certainly looks compelling. At this point, the bulls are taking everything the bearers can throw at them and they're still coming in with more. So if we now move away to the pound against the dollar, we've seen a really significant sell-off in the past few weeks, and that's really borne out by this particular chart here, which is the daily chart. But also, we've broken a very long-term uptrend from the lows at 148. We did that a few weeks ago, a few days ago. We've broken the 50-day moving average, we've broken the 100-day moving average. Now we're on the 200-day moving average and we're currently holding above that. So currently holding above the 200-day moving average, yes, we broke below the twin lows in May and June. And again, this could be a short-term bear trap. It will really depend on how the market reacts around this level here right now. At the moment, we've got what I would call a doji. We need to get back above 167 to really stabilize and signal and move higher. But overall, if we look at the four-hour chart, again, we can see here, we're looking very oversold, looking extremely oversold. And certainly, judging by this particular chart here, there is a good chance that with a certain amount of dollar weakness, we could actually see the pound starts to squeeze higher. And it really begs the question at the moment with respect to the direction of the dollar, is what do you think is most likely with respect to euro-dollar? Do you think the euro-dollar is likely to squeeze higher or is it likely to go lower? Obviously, if euro-dollar goes lower, it will drag sterling down in terms of, unless there's an awful lot of cross-flow between euro- sterling. But if the euro-squiz is higher, there's a good chance it could actually take the pound up with it. And I think for more than anything, that is probably the riskier trade. If we look at the proportion of short positions to long positions at the moment, client sentiment shows that the bias is still towards the short side on the pound against the dollar, given that the indicators are looking a little bit oversold, you'd have to worry as to whether or not that is sustainable and whether or not we're gonna get a period of consolidation over the course of the next few days. Particularly in the case of the fact that we've got the NPC minutes next week and we've also got CPI data. Now, I don't expect the NPC minutes to basically shed any light on what the Bank of England said this week with respect to the inflation report, but we might get a dissenter. But even if we do get a dissenter, I don't expect that to change the dynamics that much. We got a dissenter with the FOMC and it didn't change the dynamics there. The dynamics will change if we get more than one dissenter. So if we do get a dissenter next week, I really don't expect too much of a, I don't expect the market to react too aggressively to it. Having said that, you never know. Colin, anything else you wanna add to that? No, I'm good here. I think if you do get a bounce, it's possible you could get about a penny bounce. You can fill in a good chunk of that candle, perhaps retest some of that previous low, but that's what you're looking at. I think the bounce would still be contained within that downtrend line though. Oh yeah, I do too, which comes in around about 168. So around 168, 10, 168, 10, 20, which was obviously the high yesterday. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that. Actually, on the subject of the dollar, there's a really nice pattern that someone showed me this morning on Twitter, which I feel I have to share with you. This is not one that I found. This was found by someone who follows me and it's a nice diamond reversal in Dollar Swiss. Now, this diamond reversal in Dollar Swiss, we need to close below it. If Dollar Swiss does break lower, that in turn could take Euro dollar higher. So certainly worth keeping an eye on that. The easiest way to measure the breakout on a diamond reversal, you can do it very, very simply on the platform here. Use the draw tools option. Go to Fibonacci price projections, select the high, select the low, and then select the breakout point, which is here. And that gives you your target. So your target, if we break out, is 89.65. That's your minimum price objective, basically taking the move there and projecting it downwards from any potential breakout point. We haven't, as yet, broken aggressively below it. Until we close below it, you need to be a little bit careful about diving straight in because you can get potentially caught on a snapback and certainly judging by the lower shadows on these candles, the markets are a little bit worried about being overly short Dollar Swiss, given how quickly the markets closed back quite well away from their lowest levels. So Dollar Swiss has a habit of catching you out. So it's certainly worth bearing in mind if in fact we do break out of this potential diamond reversal. Well, on that note, I think with us talking about the potential for a rebound in sterling or Euro and some rollover here in Dollar Swiss, something we're talking about is a bit of a pullback in the US dollar here. The US dollar itself has had a pretty good run lately on the back of all the stronger economic data we had seen coming out of the US and in speculation that might force the Fed to act sooner on interest rates than they've been planning. If we do see that start to ease away, we could see the US dollar start to weaken a little bit and give back some of its recent gains and that could also support rallies in the other paper currencies. Which brings me on to one of your favourites, Colin Dollacad, because of that jobs report that they're choosing to re-release, which basically, because they released the wrong numbers last week. So they're going to re-release them today. So I'll let you go ahead. Just tell me what you need from me on this daily candle chart. This is fantastic. Thank you, Michael. So we had the... Statistic Canada is eating some crow this week. They had put out a post to the very disappointing Canadian jobs report last Friday. They came out yesterday and it turns out that there are a number of errors in their data. So they're now going back and re-releasing their numbers tomorrow. So on the interim, and it's funny enough, you look at this here, we had to spike up last week and then the trading of the last few days has basically suggested that since the beginning of this week that the street didn't believe the employment number as it was because it didn't push up through 110 even though the job number was terrible. It's actually been rolling over and starting to come back the other way. Today we've had a probe below 109. It's actually tested about 10880, which was a Fibonacci level on a different measure. But we're also seeing here the stochastic is starting to roll over as well. So this upward pulse that we had seen from the middle of July to last Friday looks like it's starting to run out of gas and this is starting to work its way back down the other way. This initial moving average support here is in and around 10860 and then you've got a Fibonacci level on here around 108 and then there's this other level of congestion back around 10750. So there's certainly room for the Canadian dollar to drop back. If you get a big improvement in the employment numbers, in the streets now looking for 20,000, it had come in as slightly negative and so if you do see a solid report, you could see the dollar cat continue to roll down from here 109. You'd look for a close below 109 for confirmation but as I've seen today, we've already had some tests below that already. So you start breaking through 109 and especially if you take out that today's low near 10885, then you're looking at a nice start of a downdraft here. And on the other side. Go on, it's interesting to know that you've got a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. Yeah, that's quite a reversal there. That's almost, I mean, if that was bigger, that'd be a tweezers pattern but that's still a pretty one day up and then one day smacked it right back. Two days in a row apart from a little island there of a very tight, you know, tight, you've got potential piercing dark cloud cover here and then you've got bearish engulfing here. So, you know, maybe it is time for the dollar cad to roll over. Certainly if we look at the four hour chart which I think we were looking at earlier, that actually gives us a much better indication of where the support level is and the support level is sort of potentially around 109 but it's looking very oversold. So maybe- In the short term, so it could still drift around here. If we don't get a break on this and I wouldn't be surprised if it popped back up into that 109.50, even 109.80 area but the dollar 10, of course, is a big round number that has been holding so far. Yeah, let's just extend that back. So 109, you can see how important it is in that context. So that could be a double top but what we really need to see is for a daily close below that 109 level to suggest that maybe we could see a little trip or a little run to the downside. Which we've been going 30 minutes. Let's quickly do gold because that's always a nice favorite. If there's anything, guys, that you want us to cover while we're chattering away here, please feel free to just use the chat facility and let us know because we're more than happy to run through the technicals with you. Obviously, we can't give you financial advice. We wouldn't be allowed to do that but certainly in the context of running the rule over a particular asset, more than happy to do that. So gold, gold, yeah, a bit of a tricky one. This is trading sideways but you can see on that the daily candles that there's an awful lot of indecision there. You've got long shadows on the candles on the up and the downside and that suggests to me that the markets are a little bit undecided about where we're gonna go next because of what's happening in Ukraine, geopolitical concerns. What we do know is significant resistance through here around about 13, 20, 13, 22 but we've also got quite a bit of support around about 1300 which at the moment the market is trying to work its way through. Now you have a theory on gold, don't you Colin, about seasonality. Yes, there's seasonality in the gold price as well as in stock markets. Historically, gold does tend to bottom out in August and the fall is generally pretty good as we go into Indian wedding season. It's a time when you get increased demand for physical gold. So oftentimes you do get a seasonal upswing in gold as you move into later August, September, October, through the end of the year is generally a more favorable time for gold and if we look here, we had a bottom here about the turn of the month. You had a nice breakout rally and since then you're holding and you're getting quietly, consistently a little bit higher lows, a nice trend there of higher lows and even this week we had seen a couple of pulses down to 1300. Now that support's moved up to a little closer to 1310. It is bumping up against some big zone of congestion in 1320 to 1322 area but even if you look at the stochastics, it's come back above the 50 line. So Aris, I'm sorry, momentum is starting to come positive as well. You'd gone overbought. That guy worked out by then going oversold so you worked off that overbought position from the first August rally and it looks like you're setting up potentially for another up-leg that would be signaled if you were to break through 1322. With the next resistance after that up near 1342, the top of that channel that Michael has drawn. Right, okay. So I've just been asked about Daimler and I'm being asked about Dolly Yen. I'm gonna do Dolly Yen first because it's easier to pick out. Basically Dolly Yen is very, very difficult to pick up. Well, actually it's fairly easy to pick. It's in a range. The top of your 103, bottom in the mid 101s and really it's a play on U.S. yields. The longer U.S. yields remain weak, the much more difficult it will be for Dolly Yen to go higher. If we can see from this particular chart here how well supported it is between 101 and 10150. Look at that very long shadow on that candle there. That suggests there's plenty of demand for dollars at very low levels in Dolly Yen but on the flip side, every time we get anywhere near 103, we find a load of sellers. Now at some point this is gonna break out but for the time being, we're in a range and I don't think we're going anywhere. The Federal Reserve is likely to remain fairly accommodative on monetary policy. That's going to keep U.S. yields fairly depressed. Certainly there's also the fact that with geopolitical risk remaining high, that's gonna keep a lid on the yields as well. So I think the downside for Dolly Yen is probably gonna be fairly well constrained by those lows this year around about between 180 and 10120 and on the top side, anywhere between 103 and 104 is gonna remain toppy. I really can't see it moving outside of that range for the next two to three months unless you have a different view, Colin. No, I'm of the same here, Michael. Maybe you'll get a retest of 103 with this bit of upward momentum in it but I don't see you getting through it at this point in time. Okay, so let's look at Daimler. And that looks actually fairly well supported judging by that price action. There certainly seems to be plenty of demand for Daimler shares at those low levels. Again, we've got a very, we've almost got a, that is a very strong buy signal there, that candle there. We've opened lower, we've closed higher. I mean, we haven't, they're almost like counter attack lines on the daily candles. We've opened on the low, we've closed on the lows and here we've closed on the highs. And even though we haven't wiped out completely the previous day's losses, certainly in the context of that there and in the open here, there's certainly potential for us to move higher. What I would caution against though is that until such times we break above this level here and let's draw it in there. There is a risk that we could drift back down again. Certainly looking at the four hour chart, you've got potential head and shoulders reversal there and upside down head and shoulders reversal. But we need to take out 61 euros or let's say 62 euros for the sake of rounding the number up. So we need to take out this level here around about 62 to signal a move back towards 67 euros here. Can I just add one thing to this, Michael? Sure. On top of having your head here of a reverse head and shoulders base, could you draw a line across 60? Across 60. Across 60. Well, horizontal line, yeah. Oh, yes, please. All right, okay, now. There, so what I just wanted to note here is when you went down below 60 you gapped, you stayed below it for a few days.