 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer a mock capital with a check-in today is Tuesday August 15th It's around 445 New York time US markets are closed tomorrow. We're gonna be getting the FOMC minutes I don't really think we're gonna see a lot out of these minutes. I think that Powell already sort of laid out What the case was for the next meeting there's still a lot of data points to come between now and The next FOMC meeting in September We're also talking about Jackson Hole coming up in just a week's time And so I think these minutes are likely to show us that you know The Fed is no longer looking for a recession that you have this sort of split between the Fed some of the members Have even come out publicly since them since the last meeting stating They think the Fed is done raising rates that they've done enough other Fed members have suggested that The Fed may continue it may need to raise rates again before this year is over And certainly the Fed has made it very clear that their data dependent And I think that these minutes are likely to emphasize and underscore some of that data dependence And that the Fed isn't really sure where rates need to go over the longer term now Today there was some pretty big developments in the S&P 500 specifically we'll start with that First of all you'll see that we hit the lower Bollinger Band again We've just been trading along it for the last couple of days again not unusual to see this happening as we're in a trend The RSI is still well above 30 So it doesn't seem like the index is really Oversold at this point that it's due to have some sort of meaningful technical rebound Additionally, we close below the 50-day moving average on the S&P which may You know offer which seem to be offering some support throughout the day around this 4450 region Again, this is the first time we've broken the 50-day moving average now since March 29th We're also still trading well below the 50 the 10-day exponential moving average which has been serving as Resistance so this is a good level to keep an eye on to see tomorrow because you can see that We've gotten above it now two times in both occasions. We reversed and ended up moving lower So this is a good level of resistance to keep an eye on in the days to come to see if the market is able to challenge These are not when we look at the actual trading session today We'll see that we had this big gap lower markets were already trading down Over overseas in Europe Basically, we had you know China'd surprised the market with a 15 basis point rate cut Asia's been trading pretty poorly of late And so some of that weakness appears to be spilling over and that spilled in over into the opening of today's session Which was certainly also aided by rates moving higher in the dollar getting stronger And so what we see is that we held this this 50-day moving average for most of the day And then right at the final hour of trading 45 minutes We finally broke through it and we're able to sell off and even pierced down to this 44 4440 level now this level sold told support for two reasons number one 50-day moving average number two This was a very important level from an options perspective There you can see 4450 that a big level of gamma concentration for Friday's expiration date with the next being a 4440 and then higher one being a 4500 so this sets up an interesting day for tomorrow because It seems as if at this point we're going to either gyrate to 4400 or we're going to gyrate back up to 4500 the interesting thing is is that we have this gap lower today Which leaves an unfilled gap? Gaps such as these where you get these big, you know, kind of big rallies into the clothes followed by a sharp decline And in time they tend to fill rather quickly and so in fact We can see that happen Just last week on August 10th, you know, we had this big gap down and then by the end of the day We filled it here's another example have this big sell-off into the end of the day Big gap higher and then just a day later two days later. We fill it completely So here's another example of the same thing happening So it wouldn't be surprising at all to see this 4490 level get revisited again Before this week is even over the reason why that is is again, you have this big decline If the bulls can take over tomorrow get back above the 50-day moving average get back above the 4450 region With the bit with the gamma level up at 4500 that could work as a magnet to pull the S&P 500 up Throughout the rest of the week back to this level Likewise, if you were to gap lower tomorrow right from the opening This would probably reinforce the idea that you're likely to visit 4400 4400 again big gamma level here. You can see a big support level right here That would be your next big major support level right around this 4396 to 4400 region So tomorrow's opening is largely going to dictate. I think how the rest of the week probably goes If the bulls are able to get the market higher quickly tomorrow above 4450 That could pave the way to a move to 4500 if they're unable to I think the more likely scenario Is this if we move up to 4450 even hit resistance stop and are not able to penetrate it The more likelihood is that you're going to hit 4400 probably Before the weeks end given that you have that big option level down there now for the Nasdaq It's a little bit different Typically look at the NDX but given that this week is an option expiration week I thought it'd be worth looking at the cues because they tend to have a little bit more of a gamma profile And when we look at the cues you can see that the big level of support here is at 365 and the next big level of resistance comes at 370 and so you'll see here that we got down to around this 365 region in that hell all day this 370 region worked as resistance So if the bulls can manage to get above this 369 368 region you're talking about a revisit to 370 and you can see here to 375 even if you can really mount the move above 370 375 would be your next region, but again It's going to be a tough task because 370 is likely to offer a lot of resistance and to get there You still got to get above and move quickly above this 368 region if we overlay that with a chart of the NDX We can get some other levels here worked in When we look at the NDX Again, you're talking about the 370 level being the big region here which comes around 15,200 and with 375 being equated to around 15,350 so again, there's potential for upside moves here But given the profile of the options market this week 370 is probably going to be the upper bound of the range and right now it looks like 365 is going to be the lower bound of the range so Really to start seeing that the Nasdaq and the Q start drifting lower than that You're going to need to see 365 break because then the next level comes around 360 which would be another big level of support When we look at the Dow the Dow has basically Come back down to that critical Resistance support level we were starting to talk about here. You can see it's 35,000 We broke below 35,000 and it sets up a potential move back down to this 34,600 area which we know was a was an important Support and resistance zone for some time to really avoid this move down again, just like the other indexes You're going to need to see the Dow quickly take these highs out at 35,040 maybe even 35,070 really clear that 35,100 region and and that may allow for the the Dow to rally back in the next couple of Days back to this 35,300 region like the S&P we talked about 4450 on the Dow this 35,000 region is of critical importance if it's unable to surpass this level I think we're looking at a scenario where we're going to trade back down to this 34,600 region when we look at the euro The euro has been weakening as we've talked about rather notably in the last couple of Days and you'll see here that the euro today again continues to weaken What's interesting again about the euro is that we've broken, you know two significant trend lines The euro has tried to rally and has been able to and we're still I think looking for a move back down to 108 Which really means that the dollar index is probably going to continue to move higher We've already tested the 103 and a half region once I think it's likely that we're going to see that region tested again with a potential breakout sending it back up towards 40 4104 60 one reason why I think that is because you're seeing the Canadian dollar Continue to weaken versus the dollar tears your big resistance level a break above resistance potentially sends us back to this 136 region you're seeing the dollar Strengthen against the Chinese one This has certainly led to a move above the 730 region and currently challenging some of its older highs and the Dollars also been strengthening against the Japanese yen In fact the yen was actually a little bit stronger almost all day today And by days end most of those most of that gain that the end had seen vanished and we were back carrying Well above the 145 region again You're talking about a yen that can maybe rally back towards this 148 region And this is really you know a lot of this is being driven by the fact that you have rates on the long end of the curve moving higher The big level here is four and a quarter on the ten year It probably means if you can get above four and a quarter on the ten year you're going to test this 430 region and If you start looking at the 430 region and what comes beyond that You're talking about you know a ten year that could be talking about going back to this 470 region Which would be an area not seen since 2007 so this is something to you know keep in mind and it really it's about the long end of the curve at this point rising and Certainly it's similar for the 30 year with potential move back up to around four and a half or so if we can get above this 435 area anyway, that's all I have for you today. I hope you have a great week. Bye