 Before this conversation gets any more heated and I didn't pack my bulletproof vest, so I don't get I'm not prepared for this I sense the audience is rested do I want to speak for As to how many Americans vote I've been in four Administrations and senior positions. I've been in every presidential election since 1964 a Couple of quick points and perhaps you can react to them number one Foreign policy won't be an issue at all in the election notwithstanding the fact that he's destroyed our alliances Notwithstanding the fact. He's the only president who is backed away from at least four and now with open skies Perhaps five agreements for each rise president will not be an issue second point We have a Goldilocks economy as you've said lowest unemployment Growth will have a growth so now not a recession and yet his approval rating is 43% and it's been between 40 and 43% for three years Mueller no Mueller good economic report could know economic report his disapproval 55% So there is vulnerability there even with the best economy that we've had Point number three. Nobody's mentioned mentioned impeachment he will not effectively be convicted but Remarkably just within three weeks now 57% of the public including a quarter Republicans support an impeachment inquiry and 51% even this early his removal from office that won't happen, but it indicates the vulnerability Fourth he got elected because he appealed to a base that what wanted disruption They were anti-globalization. They were anti-elite and they were anti-immigrant and that base is a very loyal base And it will remain loyal, but it is a base of a 40% and not more last point Having said that as John Claude said elections are binary and with all of these disabilities With impeachment which probably will be voted by the House, but not agreed to by the Senate Elections are binary. He's pushed the Democratic Party as he's Pushed the Republicans to the right to the far left if that's the choice. He has a good chance of winning even with all of this I agree with you hundred percent. I don't I don't have anything to add. I agree with you hundred percent Can you identify yourself? Yes, I'm Anders Rosenthal from Mexico. I Wanted fundamentally to add to what all of you have said With regard to our Perspectives as the neighbor to the south We've gone through from the time Trump came down the escalators in Trump Tower to announce his presidency up until day before yesterday a constant bashing of Mexico on the immigration issue on drug trafficking on the wall on almost everything and At the end of the day, we now have a president in Mexico who like mr. Macron has decided he wants to have a peaceful relationship with mr. Trump He is from the left. It's quite unusual for someone from the left to Not use the relationship with the United States to his own advantage, but so far he has it and Really the question I would ask any of you Is how long can that go on how long can it go on with mr. Macron especially if Trump is reelected and how long can it go with andres manuelo pez obrador for the remaining five years of his presidency People in Mexico are offended By Trump they are constantly offended yet. There has not been any public outcry yet against them so Put this question one one word only if I may on this one As you know your president wrote to Nancy Pelosi to ask her to put the USMCA on the agenda of the house of a representative and she doesn't do it for obvious reasons and One of the reason being the fact that the unions are against it and I know Richard Trump car because happened to be on the ball of United Way and Richard Trump car was the head of the FLCIO is against USMCA so this is again one of the reason why the trans-specific agreement was not approved because Unions want some more gold plating right now. How long can this love affair with macro and trump go on? Je pense pas du tout ce soir. I don't think it's a lot of fair at all I think it is Macron is pragmatic as general the gold said Vous devez prendre la réalité tel qu'elle son it's what the gold said in January 64 when he decided to recognize China and The gold didn't like the cultural revolution Or the gun the grand leap forward. He didn't like it at all. So I think that Macron He will probably take it. They'll get some Je pense que la France En ce qui la concerne a tout à fait compris que elle ne pouvait plus compter sur les états unis Pour comme allier qui c'était pas un allier fiable. Elle a tout à fait compris. Elle avait déjà compris c'est pour ça que Charles de Gaulle avait fait la force de frappe indépendante parce que Charles de Gaulle se souvenait quand 1940 le président Paul Renault avait demandé l'aide des états unis dans la guerre que nous avions Déclaré au nazisme La guerre au régime nazi et que les américains nous ont répondu à ce moment là manage Et donc donc nous avons ça mais là évidemment nous sommes allés dans des expéditions Extérieur avec les américains notamment en bosnie Là on va plus avoir confiance entre eux en eux on va avoir confiance aux anglais au britannique on va garder Le format des accords de Saint-Malo et des accords de l'incaste à hausse c'est très important c'est-à-dire que et d'ailleurs en bosnie ce sont les anglais et les français qui sont intervenus en juin 95 et quand ça a marché les américains dit ok on vient avec avec notre aviation mais c'est quand sur terre une brigade franco-britannique a commencé à taper les serbes extrêmement Seriousment autour de Sarajevo que les américains ont dit ok on vient avec vous et Voilà Je pense que c'est c'est c'est ce qui va se passer mais je pense que Le président mexicain a tout à fait la bonne politique il faut il faut s'entendre d'autant plus que si vous voulez L'amérique est quand même un pays où il y a des check and balances et ça c'est très important Les relations entre le mexique et l'amérique sont très importantes elle dépend aussi du congrès elle dépend des des des sociétés américaines et de qu'on a de beaucoup de choses de la presse des universités etc et je pense que Je pense que aujourd'hui vous avez un accord commercial et je pense que j'ai aucune raison de penser Que au cours des cinq prochaines années les relations entre le mexique et les états-unis vont empirer j'ai aucune raison Serious First of all, you know, I much admire what Macron is trying to do but the reality is that Macron has not had any Significant influence on Trump's decisions Which is a shame, but it's the truth And The only people who have had influence on Trump are people like President Erdogan Muhammad bin Salman inside Arabia Xi Jinping who's had a lot of influence on Trump and Kim Jong-un He is influenced by dictators. He's not influenced by Democrats. That's the first point. I want to make by all means Macron carry on He's carrying a worthy flag, but let's be realistic. He's not achieved anything Second thing I would say in response to Stuart's point about American politics and he has more experience of this than me but when I look at back at Democratic candidates when Democrats choose an Aged well-known insider like Hillary Clinton or John Kerry or Al Gore or Walter Mondale they lose when they choose a fresh-faced young outsider not scarred by Washington experience whether it's John F Kennedy or Jimmy Carter Or Bill Clinton or Barack Obama they win So I think Democrats they've got a whole sea of new fresh-faced outsiders If one of them manages to come through I think they'll stand a very good chance if they stick with the old and bold and boring Like Biden or Warren they'll lose. So we'll count that as a vote for Buttigieg. So No, I said there's a whole stuff. It's a whole raft of them. It's not for one person It's a whole raft of attractive Democratic candidate from a Chinese perspective. It's well-known Chinese are Historically patient Also flexible. So we are used to deal with what happened. What's changing? Trump or without with Trump Honestly, it will war one years ago when the war trade war start There's a kind of a shock for average in Chinese people. They don't know what's going on, but now One year later, we used to that Because we we understand we feel tired of that Sometimes increase kind of something increase delay so many times. So so people say, okay Whatever you want you do it This is exactly what Americans domestically are there's a kind of an accommodation being made for all the Outrageous kind of behavior. You should say, well, that's Trump being Trump. Mr. County Thank you Two reasons that made some of the points I wanted to make so I'll focus on or refocus on the title of the panel the Consequences of Trump. I mean I agree with some of the things that been said, you know, in other words Some of the damage is so big. It had some chain reaction I mean when you so protectionism you get protectionism and you so conflict yet conflict some of the things Are structural trends and there is some continuity And some other thing a few very few things are considered good like certainly pushing back China and all the thing but I also think that any other president except perhaps Mike Pence Will be able to Reverse some of this damage certainly in the international Stage on sort of the international agreement and the multilateral order and more importantly and nothing hasn't been said here is that What's happening now? Within America is extremely important for all democracies in the world for liberal democracy The struggle that's going on right now in the courts with impeachment proceeding is extremely important and if Trump is defeated whether in the polls or Through impeachment otherwise or resigns there will have a tremendous effect for democracy Around the world. I'm always uncomfortable people talk about style. It's not about style. It's about substance I mean some of the things he's doing and what you call style is the violation of American values sometimes American standards or democratic standards generally. So I think this has not been Covered or sort of state we haven't talked about that and that is one of the one of the more important aspects of the Trump era is this whole idea about what what he represents for the image of America and what The image that America has always promoted around the world over the weekend in the New York Times Michelle Goldberg wrote a very interesting piece Called the beacon has gone out with the subhead once upon a time We spread ideals of democracy and rules of law now we send Rudy Let's take about three questions because we're out of time But and then see if any of the panel members want to answer them. Okay over here. We haven't been over here yet And here we haven't been here either Merci I'll give you I would like it semblery que l'humour ne soit pas interdit et donc je voudrais poser deux questions la première est ce que la relation international a to résumeré éventuellement une question d'ameublement table ronde table rectangular une chaise en plus donc pour la chaîne Et ça serait le grand et le grand débat ou est ce que derrière ce débat là il n'y a pas un plus important qui un problème de grande Récomposition des tendances qui viennent on a parlé de l'Inde on a parlé de l'Iran on a parlé de la Turquie on a parlé du brésil Le long de main de la première et de la seconde guerre mondiale l'Europe c'est totalement refashionné il y a eu une nouvelle Europe est ce qu'il n'y a pas de nouveau monde qui vienne est ce que le débat sur la récomposition n'est pas d'ores et déjà là La seconde question très souvent un scénariste qui fait des films et préoccupé d'avoir des oscars pour son acteur principal Mais en même temps il n'aimerait pas qu'il le focalise toute l'attention et qu'il étouffe le scénario du film Donc il essaie de répartir entre le personnage et le film est ce qu'on n'abuse pas trop de l'analyse sur les états d'âme du président trump est ce qu'en fait il n'est pas révélateur de recomposition qui viennent à l'intérieur des états unis à l'intérieur de l'espace des alliances puisque On la c'est pas le cas du panel le panel l'a un peu évoqué est ce qu'il n'y a pas une grande recomposition qui est demandée les états unis comment évalue-t-il avec leurs alliés la relation en afghanistan en iraq les questions économiques la globalisation et donc est ce que le maître mot de ces deux questions n'est pas le débat de la recomposition et est-ce qu'on peut nous éclairer sur les recompositions qui viennent parce que la crainte c'est qu'on multiplie le débat sur le hier ou le costume de Trump alors que derrière lui il ya une réelle de demande il y a une électorat Il y a une vision la vue pour le démantèlement les instruments je vous remercie Good question won't just pass the mic right there that's perfect. Thank you Merci beaucoup à tous les panellistes pour cette discussion extrêmement riche je voudrais rebondir sur l'intervention de Renault Girard parce qu'elle me semble en dépit de tous les apports qui sont qui ont été apportés par tout le monde et grâce à eux la plus prospective Thierry de Montbriol nous a mis sur une douzième édition qui est sur le global governance ma question c'est dans le cas où monsieur trump est élu qu'est ce qu'on peut envisager comme ligne tendentiel grande ligne sur l'évolution du monde si on a compris que trump je ne veux pas le ramener à ce phénomène là que le le phénomène trump est au fond un phénomène un succès d'années de politiques électoralistes ou la politique étrangère jouent un rôle secondaire ce qui est important c'est l'excitement Kentucky ce n'est pas Beijing china donc on vise un public interne alors comment on peut envisager quatre autres années de monsieur trump dans le cas où il est réélu moi je vois une régionalisation accélérée du monde où chacune des régions serait laissé à son son sort en des communs c'est à dire quel type de est ce que les droits de l'homme tiennent encore est-ce que l'OMC tiennent encore quels sont les les ce sera la fin du système multilatéral que nous avons connu depuis 1945 et troisième grande question on le voit un peu avec l'incursion comme dirait Volcker des tropes turcs en syrie qui de la gestion de crise qui de le conseil de sécurité ne fonctionne pas est ce que la violence internationale laissé à elle-même ne pourrait pas conduire à des dérapages majeurs donc qu'est ce qui peut se passer en termes de gouvernance globale dans le cas d'une réélection du président américain la question aurait pu être aussi intéressant de savoir si le dans le cas d'un nouveau d'un candidat qui aurait réussi qui ne serait pas monsieur trump qu'est ce qui adviendrait aussi de la possibilité de revenir sur une politique américaine laquelle merci we should have a workshop on what kind of what kind of world we want to design i think that's it and back here yeah reshaping yeah there's a question back here yes to keep on ronos remark i may ask our japanese german and british friends what has been allies entail after these years with a trump administration we're supposed to be allied what does it mean actually for each of your countries and on your analysis and actually how does nato's tense now would renault say nato still exists or not and the others what is it being an ally with trump administration okay let's start there and answer any of the questions you've just heard any of you but renault why don't we start with you because that was the last question no je pense que c'est tout à fait évident qui est une recomposition quelle est-elle eh bien y a un affaiblissement grave de tout le système multilatéral euh qui avait évidemment des défauts mais qui avait quand même beaucoup de qualité construit par les américains en 1945 le rang quand même ta nuji on a dia on a dia mo et même quand ça peut lui servir dans sa lutte contre la chine il ne l'utilise pas donc il y a une une haine chez chez une incompréhension c'est plus qu'une haine c'est une incompréhension du multilatéral chez trump sans doute d'ailleurs parce que dans le real estate à new york le multi le multilatéral ça n'existe pas et donc voilà mais il y a d'autres de monsieur le ministre il y a d'autres compositions qui va qui qui qui qui ont lieu déjà il y a quand même une sorte d'alliance stratégique qui se poursuit entre enfin qui qui qui c'est oui qui est importante entre la russie et la chine la russie vient annoncer il ya trois trois jours qu'elle allait mettre au point aider les chinois à mettre au point des missiles entières rien plus plus performant il y a aussi un axe dont on a pas parlé qui est en train de se construire l'axe washington délit avec vous avez vu la réception au café et le discours café trump a lorsque maudit est venu au texas donc on va avoir cette est ce que la question la question nous a déposé est ce qu'on peut avoir de grands dérapages est ce que ça conduit à de grandes guerres je ne pense pas que je pense que cette cette cette mise en cause du système international du fmi de l'omc etc est dommageable c'est évident mais je ne pense pas qu'elle est suffisante pour provoquer deux grandes guerres et je vous rappelle quand même que que le système international international qui fonctionnait extrêmement bien même avec des idéalistes comme john kennedy john so was a cité john kennedy ben john kennedy au même au même moment il était très idéaliste et où il disait voilà je combat pour la liberté etc il a quand même provoqué une catastrophe qui est la guerre américaine au vietnam qui a mis un chaos dans toute l'indagine pour pour très longtemps donc en fait c'est pas parce que vous avez un système onusien le système odysien ancien n'a pas empêché les les les soviétiques d'envahir l'Afghanistan en 1980 et n'a pas empêché les américains d'envahir l'irac en 2003 donc voilà recomposition oui dommage de tout ce que nous avons construit sur la gouvernance internationale oui grand conflit à venir non je n'ai pas d'éléments pour dire que on va vers de grande guerre et même je pense que les histoires en mer de chine en mer de chine méridionale ou en fait les américains ont perdu la guerre les chinois ont déjà gagné je ne pense pas qu'on ira vers la guerre je ne pense pas non plus qu'on ira vers une guerre entre le japon et la chine si évidemment shijin ping avait la folie de vouloir reprendre taiwan pour des raisons intérieures là on aurait une très grande guerre parce que les taiwanais ne vont pas laisser faire ensuite évidemment les américains interviendraient dans la dans la guerre mais aujourd'hui je pense que shijin ping est suffisamment sage pour ne pas vouloir reprendre par la force taiwan you can see why right now is such a frequent gust at radio france international you feel the air time as we say on cnn so any last thoughts because we really are out of time on the evolution of the world is it going to be evolving as a multilateral unilateral is it going to be liberal democracies versus autocracies what worries me more than anything else is the polarization of american politics because a lot of questions have been asked what's necessary to sort of fix problems and to fix problem you have to have a consensus historically there was a consensus on basic foreign policy there was a consensus on fiscal discipline there was a consensus on southern policy of immigration there was a consensus on certain free trade we don't have that anymore so the only way to achieve that is probably to forget about this next election which is not going to solve anything and hoping that there is a majority of people in in united states i believe who are what i would say fiscally conservative and socially liberal and what i mean by that i mean they are there's probably now a majority which is pro-choice and not pro-life and as you know trump has used extensively the pro-life movement to get elected i mean somebody mentioned vice president pence on that sense pence would be worse than trump something that you have to keep in mind that's one example so my point is that there is a hope there is a hope that but the fiscal discipline is the most important thing the debt is 23 trillion and the death and the deficit you know the we have a situation which is untenable and total man's medicare medicaid is 64 percent in 2040 it's going to be more than 100 percent of gdp right there is a consequence of mr trump that's going to go on beyond his presidency joseph we have to get you in here as well quickly this you know we've described how trump is demolishing the global order this should have been the hour of europe because we in europe for the last 70 years made a living off the liberal global world order trade openness capital movements that united states built and maintained so europe should in its own interest step up but i've never seen i don't i've been around for a while but i've never seen europe so much in disarray as it is right now if you look at the three major powers britain is kind of out of the game my call for all his posturing on the international stage which he does very elegantly is beset by almost uncontrollable forces at home which are hounding him and and threatening to demolish his reform program and then of course there is germany and mrs merkel who used to be the uncrowned empress of europe and she was so celebrated for so many years here the empress of the holy roman empire you know the the e u and and and there is no no long any mrs merkel and there is no successor of any weight in sight and we're not even going to talk about italy um and then if we add the division between the neo populist nationalists in the east and the more or less liberal uh uh societies in the west europe is really bad shape and we haven't we've spent pretty much the whole morning talking about mr trump without talking about what is closer to should have been closer to the subject of the panel so that was what it was the subject of the panel i know come on but you know you can't talk about trump without talking about that 70-year-old alliance which kept the two of them together i would just say a couple of concluding remarks first of all the i fully agree the american election will be determined by american voters operating on american domestic interests well for the last 70 years the global system has been run by the elite the elite in america the elite in europe and the elite in other countries we've managed that global system we now have in the white house someone who's straight out of propping the bar up in the local pub with views that are commensurate with uh with someone who's simply not just not part of the elite but anti elite um so that is why i mean i i welcome your optimism that a future leader will be able to get back to normal i'm not sure about that and i'm certainly not sure about it if trump wins the second term and i also share the concern about this violent oscillation in politics um and if if uh america is presented with a choice between sort of marina le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon as their next leader where will normal people go where will they go in france um uh and uh uh i i think we should remain optimistic everybody here is part of the global elite we need to do what we can to preserve the system whilst we have a a bar room bully uh in the in the in the white house um but we should be very careful to be uh cautious about thinking that this is just a passing storm and it will all get back to normal again when the man goes he's doing serious damage to the international system there's there's evidence of that everywhere around the world when you look at the other sort of many trumps fell last word my final conclusion of final remark is the rise of china created two tremendous challenges first one is challenging to the global um order whether the rest of the world particularly western country allow another big economy with different social system but not directly changing or challenging or deny the lifestyle of other country that's first challenge second challenging to china itself how you correctly summarize your experience for your successful economic success for how do you follow the title of a world which is uh democracy marketization internationalization that's two questions i guess it's very tremendous so i know you're all hungry for our brilliant knowledge but you're also probably hungry so um i would say that's concluding of the panel and thank you very much for attending great