 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Thursday morning. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and volatility in both ways in this market folks overnight. You trade higher, you almost make it to 3800. Right now you have the S&P's positive by half a percent. Things look a little dicey in the overnight session last night, whether it was even 10 o'clock last night by even 730 last night, you were under 3740, markets charge higher basically during the European session, which is interesting. You get the DAX right now down 1%, FTSE down 410%, but you can see from about 330 in the morning up until all the way until about 730 in the morning, the S&P's traded from a price level of about 3740. You were slightly below that level, but you're talking about 55 points to the upside. We've given up some of those gains, but markets in positive territory to kick things off so far. Back to a 15 minute chart just to see the volatility this week. There is the close of action on Friday. Markets accelerate higher from Monday's closed holiday, continue the action higher on Tuesday, gives it all back pre-market and quite an acceleration we had on the opening bell yesterday gave up some of it. But as you can see, we're opening basically of where we were on Tuesday's closed. Interesting action, right? Erase all the volatility of yesterday. We are sitting right where we closed Tuesday's action. Now I'm ballparking here, market traded a little bit off, but you're sitting right at Tuesday's highs of 3780 in the S&P's. NASDAQ 100, excuse me, pretty similar action in terms of volatility in both directions, man. You're talking about 400 point moves, folks, from where you were Tuesday to the lows of early Wednesday back to the highs of yesterday. The S&P NASDAQ right now, about 50 points off of where we were in the pre-market at 11,700. You're trading 11,647. You get the Dow right now up about a quarter percent, 30,544. The bust Russell barely in the green right now at 1693 Bitcoin back above 20,000. We were below that number overnight, 20,610 for Bitcoin. You got Ethereum trading at 1120. We were down to 1041 overnight in Bitcoin. Crude catches a little bit of a bounce. We make it down to almost 102 last night. We're trading at 10659. And you jump over to the gold contract right now, flat at 1838, but we had volatility in both directions as well, down to 1826, back to 1838 this morning, and we jumped to no 10 bonds. We got some higher price and lower yield coming at you. The 10-year, 3.1%, just like that, man. Look at the action we've had in the last week. 3.5 points to the upside practically. Well, not quite. More than three points, we'll call it. From 114.10, the low of last Thursday to 117.16, let's back it up even a little bit further. Was that the exact low? Pretty close to the exact low. That's last Thursday. You actually make the exact low last Tuesday, but only a few ticks below that price level. We got yields rising to almost 3.5%. Now they're pulling back a bit. They're still sitting at 3.1%. The yield on the 10-year right now. We jump over to the volatility index, sitting under 30 right now, at 2917. Jumping back to the notes and the bonds. Interesting article over there at Bloomberg this morning, we're going to kick the program off with just one second as we get it all acclimated here. Stocks are losing the race with bonds in an era of tightening Fed. We got a lot to talk about. Chairman Powell, he was out there yesterday making some waves in the market, talking about soft landing very challenging, recession possible. Folks, no matter what the Fed chairman is saying, shouldn't really be news, and it's not really news in the market. If you look at where we are right now, no matter what Chairman Powell is saying, I think it's very clear that they are going to bring the rate hikes. They understand that inflation is raging and they have to get it under control, even if that is going to make things a little bit difficult for the foreseeable future. It's anybody's guess whether that brings a recession. Chairman Powell, whether that leads to a recession, he's the one that can ease the brakes, which is the important part of that. The market already pricing and I saw somewhere today that as of May of next year, the Fed, the market already pricing in potentially, that's when the Fed begins to ease. It's highly possible that that's when the Fed begins to ease when you think about that they're going to be bringing it with 75, 75, 75. It's not going to take long to get those rates to a level that they should have an impact. A year out from right now, maybe inflation is tamed and maybe they can provide a little bit of ease back into the economy if the market is really struggling in recessionary tendencies, which is totally possible. So we go from that headline back to the article talking about bonds and the era of Fed tightening. Some interesting statistics here. So yeah, the 10-year treasury is hitting 3.5. Remarkable. We're already back to 3.1, right? Got to have some quick fingers in this market, folks. If you're looking for price levels that stocks may trade to get them on your charts, maybe put in some limit orders. If you really have a concrete level that you want to buy some equities at, if we do pull back to those levels, because so often like that, you know, if you were thinking about getting into fixed income and you said, you know what, I'm going to wait till we get to 3.5 and you didn't pull the trigger and you waited a couple of days is gone just like that. And you're 3.1 for 10 years, you just lost four tenths of a percent for 10 years. That's how quick these markets move. Now, that's the highest since 2011 when it reached 3.5%, comparing bonds with an ever volatile stocks is tricky. Various measures show the allure of fixed income growing. I would agree. I was looking at bond funds just talking about retirement, OK, long-term retirement for the first time like last week or two weeks ago because it matters. Bond funds have gotten decimated in price. We'll take a look at some of those throughout the hour. Stocks generate about 5.3% of their price in earnings on average, making the gap between the two asset classes yield close to the slimmest since 2018. If you apply that same exercise with blue chip corporate bonds, investment grade yields were just 45 basis points below that of the S&P 500s payout through Tuesday, the smallest gap since 2010. So think about that. You're getting investment grade yields that are barely 45 basis points below what the S&P 500s payout is through Tuesday. And meanwhile, what is the risk of getting into a corporate bond versus what is the risk of getting into the S&P 500 right now? That speaks for itself, I think. Rising rates across the fixed income landscape are chipping away at there is no alternative mantra for stocks. I would agree again. There was no alternative when the 10-year was at half a percent in the doldrums of the pandemic. Really tough to even look at it when we started the year off at 1.5% in the 10-year. For the bulk of the past decade, the narrative has been that low rates globally have pushed yield hungry investors out of the spectrum into assets such as equities. I would agree. Things change, though, in the current environment. For income investors, for our multi-asset class income strategy, we're leaning more into the bond market than we have over the last decade. Now, that's one asset manager talking to Bloomberg. Now, here's what I wanted to get to here. The S&P 500s premium over high-grade bond yields. This is the one we just talked about, right? Which has snuck into about 45 basis points. Look at this chart, man. The red line is the US investment grade bond yields. The black line is the S&P 500 current earnings yield. Now, here's what to think about on the heels of this, right? That is the current earnings yield. What happens if earnings get slashed yet again? Now, what could happen is that if earnings get slashed yet again, you may have yields going down to showcase the recessionary tendencies going on in this market. It's a seesaw battle. But nonetheless, it's important to look at this chart. When you look at these, I've not been this close. Basically, since 2009, 2010, when you were over those levels, coming out of the 2008 pandemic, a lot of tightening there. So for the first time, yeah, it would make sense to take a look at those fixed income yields. We'll be right back, folks. We'll be talking to our man, Kevin Hakes. We'll be right back. In a time of booming inflation, where you're purchasing powers eroded, there's no better place to protect your hard earned money than in gold. This is the gold flagship asset, is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. 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We talk to Mr. Hinks every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday at 9.15 in the morning. You can watch Fast Market, folks, every trading day at 12 noon Eastern time, right here on Tiger TV. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Happy Thursday. It's summer, Tommy, and markets are unable to hold rallies, unable to sustain any sell-offs. I think we call these summer markets, Tommy. So yesterday, pretty strong day during the day, big fade at the end of the day. Now we're back up today. It looks like the NASDAQ is the strongest again today, Tommy, but drone pile date two on Capitol Hill, that's usually fun to listen to. We did get some inventory data in crude that showed something positive. For the first time in five weeks, Tommy, crude oil production in the US went up slightly from 11.9 million barrels to 12 million. That's a good thing. So we wait for FedEx earnings today. Darden had good restaurants, KB Homes had good earnings. I'm sorry, good earnings out of Darden and KB Homes. So we've got some positive things. We've got yields back down to 3.1%. So all things considered, Tommy, everyone should remember we're in summer market. Yeah, pretty interesting action in terms of a two-way market right now. I mean, the force has been to the downside. There's kind of no denying that since the beginning first of the year, but man, these moves in both direction this week, evidence of it. I mean, yesterday, Kevin, when I was chatting with you, boy, I'm pulling up the chart here. We were about about 3720 or so. We had 3,800 by the middle of the day. And just like that, you were at 3,740 overnight. 80 points up, 40 points down, kind of the standard right now. We have a VIX pretty comfortable at around 30 right now. And yeah, I wanted to get your feeling on the yields, man. We're just like that. We're actually under 3.1% right now to be exact, Kevin, 3.098 I got right now as I'm pulling up the chart on the Thinkorswim platform. You got the tenure right now up almost 19 ticks at 117,17. I was reading one analyst out there today talking about maybe you have easing. Like, when's the Fed gonna start easing after all this hiking, you know, May 2023? What do you see for a landscape right now where maybe we are getting a little bit of a pullback finally in yields as, yeah, as I'm speaking to you, man, we're making new up 21 ticks now in the tenure. It's just not stopping, a little bit of easing in the life of yields. Yeah, the question is, what are these telling us, right? What are lower crude oil prices and lower yields telling us? And it may be telling us that we're in for a slowdown, that the demand destruction is starting to take hold here. So the good news is, think about this, Tommy, a lower crude oil is gonna show up in the CPI data, which may then lower yields, which it looks like it's doing, which may allow drone pile to take us far off the break slightly in terms of the overall economy. So this is not the worst scenario that we can talk to. Crude oil is finally starting to tick slightly lower here down from, you know, 130, spend some time at 120, now it's about $106. So crude oil is starting to ease a little bit. Maybe remember the inflation data that we're getting, though it's widespread, is still dominated by energy, Tommy. So any improvement in the price of crude oil, the price of gas at the pump will ease inflation fears. It is pretty interesting, just even watching the yields this year, as you have yields rising dramatically as the Fed is gonna be hiking pretty dramatically and they're in that cycle right now. And then you get to a point, maybe, and like you're saying, maybe that's the point that the market factors in what we know about the Fed. And then it says, hold on a second, that's gonna have an impact on the economy, which is gonna crush growth, which is gonna maybe hurt demand for oil or many different, you know, services sectors of the economy, and then it's gonna bring yields back down. And just like that, remarkable, that you're talking about three and a half points to the upside in the 10 year, almost a four tenths percent pullback from where we were last Thursday alone. So markets this morning, Kevin, we're sitting just shy of about 3,800. You mentioned Darden, some pretty good numbers. They've given back some of those gains even. They were up to 122 though. They're back to about 116. They got a conference call going on at 830, so not sure what they're saying there yet. As you said, Chairman Powell, day two today, nothing too surprising that he's saying yesterday, of course, but always the market listening very closely to what he has to say. What are you guys talking about on the program coming up at 12 today, Kevin? We've got three good names. First, we'll talk about Snowflake, the cybersecurity company. Then we'll look at CarMax. They have earnings coming up, like fully old do a presentation on CarMax. And then we're gonna stay covering airlines. So we're gonna look at United Airlines today and what they're doing. The airlines are in a volatile, crazy, uncertain place right now with demand spiking, problems filling, canceled flights. So we're gonna look at what effect all these inputs have on actually the price of some of these airline stocks, Tommy. Nice. Snowflake, CarMax, CarMax, an interesting one, man. Those used cars, the whole car market right now. Maybe a little bit of a shift, right? Wasn't it in the last CPI numbers? I think it was some of those automobile numbers, new automobiles coming down a little bit. Maybe a little bit of rotation out of the craziness in that sector. And yeah, airlines. I got two headlines this morning, Kevin. I'm gonna talk about both of them having to do with airlines, cutting some of their flights to kind of deal with some of the shortages they're dealing with. United, you're gonna be talking about 12% of domestic Newark flights to help tame delays. So they're just cutting flights, man, to try and keep up. And American, they're gonna stop flying to four small cities. So a tough one, man. Pilot shortages is what they're talking about. I found it interesting. Two headlines up this morning about those airlines. Yeah, we'll see how that shakes out. But man, those airlines spend quite a roller coaster to say the least, man. Well, Kevin, we appreciate you taking the time every day, man. It should be a wild one as usual. And we don't talk to you tomorrow. So you have yourself a great weekend, man. A great day. We'll be watching and we'll talk to you next week, man. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. You too, Kevin. Always a pleasure, man. Folks, tune in every trading day, 12 noon Eastern time. I say it every day. TD Ameritrade, Thinkorswim, they are a sponsor, folks. But I tell my friends, I would use the Thinkorswim platform anyway. I would watch Kevin's program fast market anyway. I've learned a tremendous amount, especially when it comes to trading options, defined risk. And folks, there's nothing like this market right now when you're talking about being a trader, if you're talking about premium, you're talking about volatility. For the longest time, it is almost difficult to remember where we were for the VIX for an extended period of time, okay? You talk about where we were in the VIX. Now, the pandemic blows things out of proportions, okay? But I'm just gonna zoom in. I mean, I'm not even talking about the year late 2017. When you were just sputtering around in the high single digits, that seems remarkable, okay? But even if you back things up, folks, to where we were at the end of 2019, you had a VIX at 11, 12, constantly. The spikes in the VIX back then got us to 18 potentially. One spike got us to 16.90. This market would plead for a number like that. Folks, the VIX has not been below. What are we talking about? Look at this. The VIX has not been below 14 for almost two and a half years. I had to recalibrate my brain to say that, okay? As traders, that is extreme volatility for an extended period of time. It's not going away anytime soon. Check out the program at 12. They do an outstanding job understanding. Volatility is a trader's best friend. Sometimes, folks, you just gotta understand how to do it and define the risk. Sometimes is the best way to do that. There's a chart for you in the S&Ps, folks. From 2174 up to 4808. And right now we're sitting at 3789. We got three minutes to go until the opening bell. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the TigersN, hosted at Discord. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. The market's open, and you got an S&P opening up 20 points in the positive. 3783, get ready for some volatility, folks. That's par for the course these days. We got summer trading, Kevin mentioned it. It is June 23rd, we're coming into July 4th, before you know it, folks. We just had a long weekend, which is great. We had Juneteenth celebrated on Monday the 20th since that took place on Sunday the 19th. And then what do we got? We got a week from tomorrow. We're coming into another long weekend, July 4th, a Monday holiday as well. Gotta love it right now, summer trading, as I said. A little bit light, and we got a volatile market already. You add a little bit of light volume, a little bit of less eyeballs in front of those screens, especially as we come into some of those long weekends, provides the opportunity for a little bit extra volatility than even normally. Right now, markets lifting off in positive territory to kick things off. Crew contract, catching a little bit of a bid, back above 106, man. Don't sell that, don't sell that call crew contract just yet, and thanks, Al. Let me jump over. I think we got a caller. Who we got on the line. Jose from Lakeland. What's happening, Jose? Good morning. Yes, top of the morning. Good morning, good morning, good morning. What, another holiday Monday? What am I gonna do? Stare at the wall? Come on, let's get these markets open. Get out in Lakeland, get a nice sweat going in this 95 degree humid temperature, man. You'll be fine, don't worry. Yes, hey, it's a good thing I had a double shot of espresso this morning. You're throwing out a lot of information. Let me ask you, this stock market's gonna be a buy at some point months down the road. I'm sure they're gonna front run it before the Fed stops with the raising. What's the best way to play it? And do you think it's gonna be the buy of the century? Well, I mean, the buy of the century might have been that 666 or whatever it was up to 4,800, because that's been quite a run, man. You back things up, what year was that? Yeah, that was 2008, right? No, where were we? Yeah, 2009, so we're only talking about 13 years to go from 600 to 4,800 in the S&Ps. I'm not sure we have another run like that in it right now, man. I always talk about context, right, Jose, and I know you know it, man. We could have some pullbacks, man, because if you just do some simple comparisons of where we are in what year and what those annualized gains still are, there's still huge returns. If you go back like six years, right? Seven years, eight years. I just have the chart up in the S&P. We kicked off 2019 at what, 2020, 500? And we're at 1,200 points higher from where you were. You're 50% higher, Jose, from where this market was, kicking off 2019, right? And then you go back to just kicking off 2016. You were at about 2,000. You almost double your money from where you were 2016. So that's a tough one. When you talk about buy of the century, but yeah, I mean, there's nothing to say. So many great stocks have come back to pre-COVID levels, right, that at least that one is totally on my radar. It depends what you're doing. Are you looking for an investment for like a longer-term investment? Just putting some money away. Are you looking for a- I was gonna ask, what about the spy? Just like the man said, said it and forget it. Are you looking for like an investment, like an IRA or a retirement type investment years down the road? Oh, God, no. No, I mean, I'm a day trader, but I got a kid that I would like to make secure. So- Sure. Well, the reason why I was asking, right, is because what you could do is pick a few levels. You know what I mean, that maybe you're comfortable with, because it's dicey, man, where this goes. Is it go, could it go to 3,200? Very possible, man. Could it go to 3,000? You better believe it can go to 3,000. We were at 3,000 almost coming into 2020 when the pandemic began. So, you know, those levels, I would be looking, coming back to at least where we were coming into the pandemic, 3,400 is totally in play. And if you take a look at the Fibonacci levels on here, man, I mean, the S&Ps, I got a chart of the S&P futures up here, but I can take a look at the spy. We're through the 3,800. The 50% is about 3,500, it's one price level. And the 6,18 is right at about 3,200, man. And the reason why the 3,200 keeps sticking out is that's the 6,18 of the full move from 2,100 to 4,800. And that's basically right back to where you kicked off 2020. So that's a price level that I'd be a lot more comfortable because 3,800 right now, man. Geez, I mean, we're still positive from where you were coming into 2021. You know, I mean, not often do you get a devastating market pullback that doesn't even erase the previous year's gains coming off of a 12-year bull run. Right, think about that, right? We're on like a 12, 13-year bull run. And all we've done is erase the last year's gains. Well, when we say erase last year's gain, I know it looks astounding. Let's remember when COVID hit in March of 2020. This market went down 8,000 points in three weeks. It's almost unfathomable. I mean, you make a great point. Context is so important, folks, and what Jose's saying, right? You gotta remember the mentality of where we were when you had the S&Ps trading at 2,100. We almost got a 1,900 handle in the S&Ps, okay? And at that point in time, if you said to anybody, right, Jose, you know what, I think the S&Ps are gonna be back at 3,200 by the end of 2022. I said, two years from now, we're gonna be at 3,200. That's percentage-wise off of 2,000. What is that, 60%? It's gonna rise over the next, I'll take it, man, get us back to 3,202 years when the whole economy was shut down and we didn't know what life was gonna be like, right? It's important to remember those things. So yeah, right now things are dicey, man. How the summer goes, people are saying maybe we're a little bit oversold here. But boy, things are dicey right now, man. I mean, for the first time, I'm not sure if you were listening to the beginning of the program. I mean, investment yield is somewhat attractive right now. And now we've dropped a little bit in the last four days, but that's gonna be something that's gonna wane a little bit on the demand for stocks. It's gonna be there for at least the next six months or something like that. And I think the real tail risk here is that it's just tougher to get ahold of than we even envisioned right now, right? That we got numbers. March was supposed to be the peak of inflation, right, Jose? Well, no, guess what? Now main number on CPI was a bigger number. What happens if July is a bigger number when we get July? What happens if August, it's still at 7% or something like that, right? That's dicey, man. So stay on top of that data month by month is what I would say. But yeah, I mean, if I'm really holding my breath a little bit, I'd be scared buying a 3,800 right now, man, 3,200. I'd be a lot more comfortable. People get hypnotized. They get hypnotized when they see the market going one way up. They certainly get hypnotized. Look, there's a lot of stark differences between Alan Greenspan. His nickname was incremental Al, quarter point, quarter point, quarter point. And this guy who wants to play God with the market and loves, has no problem capitulating to a president. I don't think Greenspan as bad as he was capitulated to a president, meaning Trump wanting, you know, keep interest rates at zero. This guy's got to grow a spine, man. Hey, have a good weekend out there. It's undeniable that he's late to the party and we'll see if he can pull it out, but it's a tough order right now, man. And yeah, it's a tough order to say the least. Jose, man, thank you so much for calling into the program. I always appreciate it. Good to talk to you, man. You have a great Thursday. Thank you, you too, Mike. Okay, man. Folks, give us a call. 877-927-6648, and Jose's exactly right. It's gonna be ahead of when things happen, right, folks? I mean, look at how this year played out, okay? Maybe it's two months, maybe it's three months. The market is always forward-looking. And look how quickly it got ahead of itself, right? January 3rd, boom, let's go to the races. Market's going down because the Fed is hiking. Now, the Fed didn't hike until what? March, I think, March 15th. I think that was the hike. Look where we are on the chart. Look at what this market did. Let's just zoom in on this year. Let me take this Fibonacci number off here, okay? 4,800, by the time the Fed had actually started hiking, you were at 4,134, and that's actually the first time you got a real bounce back to 4,600. Same thing's gonna happen once the Fed is done hiking, and maybe you get a little bit ahead of the fact that they've crushed this economy and they might have to start easing. Watch that data, folks. It's gonna be important where we go for CPI as we come for the months forward. Stay tuned, folks. S&P's up 13, we'll be right back. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate, LLC, is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area. 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You got the S&Ps up 17 points right now. NASDAQ 100 up 14, the Dow catching a bid. Dow leading the way up half a percent, up 160 points right now, and you got the Russell right now up a quarter percent. I guess the S&Ps are up about half a percent, but yeah, the Dow leading the way up 6-10th percent right now. Gotta pull up an article. I'm just talking about on CNBC, folks, and I talk about it all the time. The analysis on CNBC leaves much to be desired. Sometimes you just get the fundamental news, so there's nothing wrong with that, but check out this headline. If this is not indicative of a market crash, stocks rise as Wall Street strives for a comeback from this year's steep losses. Folks, we have like a, no. Take a look at this chart, okay? Take a look, what is that? That's the Dow, excuse me, I want the S&P. Just from where we were this year. Did you see the headline I just pulled up? Stocks rise as Wall Street strives for a comeback. Do you see a comeback on this chart, folks? Okay, that headline has no business being written. We barely have a bounce. All we're doing is chopping around below 3,800, which is where we've been since June 13th, the last 10 trading days. There is no bounce on that chart just yet, folks, okay? That is not what a bounce looks like considering what the decimation to this market looks like, okay? On June 8th, 15 days ago, not even 15 trading days, 15 days ago, the S&Ps were trading at 4,160. That's almost 400 points from where we're trading at right now. Just be aware when you see articles like that, headlines like that, context is important, where we've been, how far we've fallen. And if this is a bounce worth selling, or if this is a bounce worth celebrating, then we are in trouble, folks, because we were just trading at 4,800. We've had the worst six, first six months to start the year since 1970. And that's the headline that you get. Be careful, man. Now, to continue that conversation with Jose, context is important, folks. Remember where we are, and that'll help show you where we may go, okay? The 27% return that the S&P put up, what would that be? 1,100 points, yeah, something like that, right? Well, the S&P pulled 26, 27% for the year 2021, completely irrational and it's all gone. Forget it was there, folks. It did not exist, okay? Because the pricing and the earnings that they had last year all went away because of basically a number of different factors. Energy being a huge factor. Inflation being caused by some of the factors of energy being a huge factor. Supply chain issues being a huge factor. So you take that all back, but again, remember killing just to get back to where we were prior to the pandemic. Now here, you want a headscratcher here, folks? I'm not even sure this is gonna be a headscratcher, but check out, let's see, let me get this right here. Is that the year? Yeah, so for the presidential elections in 2016, you can't even see the volatility on this chart, but there is the volatility in November. You had the S&Ps dive down to 2028, you finished it out at 2198, you had a nice acceleration higher with Republicans taking over, a little bit of tax breaks coming in for companies across the board, whether you agree on that or not, okay? When that happened, folks, all right, the S&Ps were trading at 2157 when that election took place. Now over the course of the next year, we traded out to 2,900, okay? But remember all the rhetoric, and I think it was correct rhetoric, but Trump was handed a very good economy that was operating on all cylinders already, okay? I'm gonna back things up. You had just risen from 600 to 2,100 over a period of from 2009 to 2016, or let me get that exactly on the chart. There's 2016, right? We had based a little bit for a couple of years after the run higher, okay? But remember the feeling at that time in 2016 of things were good, right? Things were great. Trump got in, things could be even better if he just gave money, a bunch of money back to companies that probably didn't need it, that handed it out in the form of dividends and buybacks, okay, but that gets political for tax breaks. But nonetheless, the market was already rocking and rolling. There was a lot of good sentiment about where it was. People were feeling really good about their stock prices, okay? The S&P was about half of what it's trading at right now. And that was only less than six years ago, okay? Think about that, folks, because even at the price we're at right now, 3783, it hasn't even been six years. So still with a thousand point pullback in the S&Ps, with a thousand point pullback in the S&Ps, if you just bought the market in 2016 or even 2017 when you kicked it off, when it was at about 2,200, right? You're still talking about 1,500 points that you've made. You're still talking about almost a 90% return if you bought the market in November of 2016 about five and a half years ago. A 90% return if you bought the market five and a half years ago, folks, keep those numbers in mind as you try and do the calisthenics in your head about what type of pullbacks are possible, okay? Because it's been a heck of a run from 660 to 4,800. I mean, we're talking about taking Fibonacci levels off of the run that we had for COVID. You wanna see some scary stuff, all right? You take the number that we had from the bottom of the doldrums in 2009. The 382 brings us back to that 3,200 mark two. Look at that. That 3,200 just keeps jumping out, folks. 3,200, you wanna see a little Confluence area? So here's your Confluence area, folks. Put it on your charts. The 382 for the full move from 600 and change in 2009 and the 618 from the full market lows in March of 2020 basically line up within about 20 to 30 S&P points. They're both at about 3,200 and that's also where we kicked off the year 2020. Put it on your radar, man. Confluence is a very powerful indicator, folks. Doesn't mean it's gonna come back to that level. But if I'm talking about the 382 of the entire run hire from 2009 and folks, what's the 382? 382 is a healthy pullback in a bull market, okay? Interesting action to say the least. That's really cool that that lines up there, man. As I said at the beginning of the program, right? If you have areas that you wanna get in now, I was asking Jose about is it longer term? Because if it's longer term, folks, you don't have to wait until it hits 3,200, right? Let's say you got 50 grand in cash, pulled out of the market that you do wanna invest in a 401K or an IRA. If you know it's gonna be in there for five, 10, 15, 20 years, okay? There's nothing wrong with saying, I'm gonna put in 25% of that money at 3,500. I'm gonna put 25% of that money into 3,200. I'm gonna put 25% of that money into 3,000 if we get there, and I'm gonna put the rest in at 2,500 if we get down there, right? Nothing wrong with that at all. But try and figure that stuff out ahead of time because you see how quickly these markets move and we get those spikes. But boy, that's an interesting one, man. From the lows of 2009 to the highs of 4,800, right there, the 3,823,200, the 618 of the entire run during COVID, 3,200. And where we come into 2020, 3,200. You're talking about, what, 16% from back from where we are right now? Just make sure you're willing to take that risk if you're in that market, folks. If you still have equities, it's not too late. What you have right now in your account, that's what you have, folks. You don't have what it was at at 4,800. And there's a lot of options out there in terms of maybe fixed income to something you're looking at a little bit more closely than you were previously, right? All right, S&Ps. We're up 18 points right now in NASDAQ, up 37. We'll take a look at some of the equities moving when we get right back, Darden Restaurants out with their numbers. KB Homes, we'll be right back, folks. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure. But you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We have markets giving up some of the gains. Nasdaq 100, you're about to go red. We're flat right now in the end. There's your red print in the Nasdaq 100. Negative by one point. S&Ps, positive by just seven. You get the Russell negative by five. Dow positive by 85. Check out Meta, Facebook, man. Down another 1%, you're trading at 154. You were trading at 384. Remarkable, just last September. Yeah, August, when's the exact print? September 1st, 384. And I think that's, is that the high? 384, that's the high. Quite a steep drop off. And look at how far this thing has fallen even after it fell out of bed on those January earnings, right? Look at that gap it had in February, man. And you are just well below those levels. We're down, what are we down from 240? You're down now to what? 30, 35% to 154.45 for the price of Meta. I think Zuckerberg, he was on Kramer. Mad Money potentially, was that Tuesday night maybe or Wednesday night he was on there? Maybe last night talking about they want a billion people in the Metaverse. Now what's interesting here is they bought Oculus VR in 2014, eight years ago. They bought that VR headset maker. So you talk about taking some time, man. Now they're talking about the potentially the second half of this decade. Folks were only, were not even halfway through the year of 2022. If we got to make it to 23, 24 and 25 that's three and a half years out just to begin the second half to get into 2016. Market does not like to wait three and a half years for potentially seeing an impact when you're spending money right now. So he was out there. The one thing I will say is they have 3.64 billion monthly active people across their family of applications. At some point folks, this will be a buy and you might be getting there, you know. Facebook is quite a platform. Whether you agree with Facebook or not whether you think Facebook's gonna have some problems because they're the catered to the older generation. Guess what man, they still got Instagram which is just a huge company its own right. And you've got a company Meta Facebook that is right now valued at $418 billion quite a haircut to say the least. All right folks, stay tuned. We got our man, Basil Chapman. He did his program at eight o'clock that's coming up right now. Larry will be live. He's a little bit under the weather. We may have him at 11 o'clock fast market at 12. You heard what they'll be talking about at the top of the snowflake live program all day folks. Have a great Thursday.