 When you look into Russian history, a major theme seems to be instability. Even within the past 100 years, the whole governing system in the country has been completely overhauled, at least twice, if we're not counting major leadership changes within the same regime, and Russia has been threatened by its neighbors since its formation. With this in mind, what would be the consequences of another major overhaul of the status quo in Russia? Let's say a collapse of the current system under President Putin, in which major instability surfaces. Putin's long rule over the Russian Federation has continued since 2000, with a nominal interregnum between 2008 and 2012, where he slightly reduced his role to prime minister rather than president. By the way, his stand in Dmitry Medvedev was a close ally of Putin, so Putinism could still live on despite Putin not being the one in the chair. This brings up the question of who will succeed Putin after he exits. In my opinion, the only serious contenders are those who are young enough that Putin has the confidence that they will carry on his legacy long after he is gone, and have had continued loyalty to him. The current Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, has had the office since only 2020, though has gained Putin's trust enough to have him replace long-standing Prime Minister Medvedev. Sergei Shoigu, the widely popular defense minister since 2012, is another serious contender to take over after Putin is gone. However, he is just three years younger than Putin, and his continued popularity may have some interesting consequences. What I've heard about Russian politics is that there are people who are greatly attached to Putin and his ideas, but there are also people in the country who strongly oppose his rule, and some sharp divisions exist as a result. Those who oppose him seem to be either communist, ultra-nationalists, or supporters of Western ideas of democracy. Within the Putin bloc, however, I also see the potential for division after Putin resigns. Assuming Mishustin is chosen to succeed him, I expect Shoigu's popularity to cause some serious tensions within the bloc, as the people's choice will have been ignored in favor of a man who has not had a public face for that long. Also, if Shoigu is chosen to succeed him, parts of the bloc will confide with the Russian ethno-nationalists, as Shoigu has partial toven ancestry, prompting these people to either support Mishustin or some charismatic Russian nationalist revolutionary. Also on that note, Shoigu would pull on the support of ethnic minorities, especially those of Turkic or Mongolic origin, due to his ancestry. The first of these scenarios seems the most likely to me, due to Mishustin being far younger than Shoigu. However, as I said, problems will still remain due to Shoigu's popularity. If one leader is chosen, then the supporters of the others could riot or revolt, which could bring the opportunity for smaller interest groups, such as the communists and the liberals, to make their stake and increase support in their causes and people disgruntled with the current status quo. This is not to mention the interests of foreign nations on Russia's doorstep. Russia's aggressive stance in global geopolitics mainly stems from its lack of good geography and demographics. Russia's once defensible borders were stripped away after the fall of the USSR, leaving the country with long, thin borders with very few natural boundaries. The low birth rate also puts the country's population into freefall, and with the average age getting older by the day, Russia will not be able to support its borders or its elderly populations, as there will not be enough young people to do either. Turkey, a country with a young and growing population, is gaining influence in the Balkans and Caucasus, and directly threatens Russia's positions in both reasons. China, though it does not have a steadily growing population, does have a growing economy, at least for now, and will lose farmland from the country getting drier, so new farmland and Siberia will present a new alternative. China also has some historical claims to much of the Russian Far East, and with the region being weakly populated in stark contrast to the Chinese side of the border, Russia would have to fight to the death to keep its claims there. Should instability strike Russia in the near future, we expect a few things to happen pretty quickly. In the Far East, China would be faced with very minimal opposition in defending its claims there, as Russia would be far too occupied fixing its internal problems. Though there might be some resistance, the gravity of the crisis within Russia's own borders would pose the recapture of the Far East from China as a lost cause. Mongolia would almost certainly fall completely into the Chinese sphere of influence with no Russia to defend them. As for the Caucasus, I would expect that most of the republics, Karachaya, Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan, to gain independence, probably under Turkish influence of some kind. Chechnya's Kadyrov, an alleged ally of Putin, already has a great deal of control over his republic, and with Putin out of the way in the rest of Russia and chaos, would most likely use this opportunity to secure the full independence of Chechnya. Turkey would have no reason not to use this opportunity to help secure the independence of these countries, due to their strong shared cultural heritage and strategic location. We can also expect places like Crimea and Transnistria to return to full Ukrainian and Moldovan control, respectively, because of the instability in Russia. This could either be achieved on their own accord or with the help of Turkey. Belarus could potentially democratize fully due to Lukashenko no longer having any external support. As for the rest of the country, it is a likely outcome that Sergei Shoigu, either as the handpicked successor of Putin, or as a usurper, would secure control of Russia, due to his greater experience in government and military than any opposition, and because of his popularity. Yet, the Russia he would pick up would be in severe trouble, with its geographic positions once again damaged, the economy and infrastructure being in a state of deep neglect, and with Russia's global influence diminished sharply. He would enter into office as an old man, which, unless he encountered this effectively through media manipulation, would severely impact the public's confidence in him, especially if he shows any signs of weakness. Vast parts of Russia would be under deep Chinese economic and political influence, with these areas generally being in Siberia. Turkey and its new position in the Caucasus would be a major threat to Russia's defense also. Europe at this point seems to be the least threatening power to Russia's existence, and therefore a detente of some sort could occur between the two, due to the shared threats of the expansion of Turkey and China's influence. Effects around the world would be astounding. Eastern Europe would probably end up being a much more peaceful place, due to the realization of a need for cooperation for the reasons I stated above. As Europe would no longer feel threatened by Russia, they would be much more willing to work with their former adversary against those belonging to other civilizations. The Caucasus as a whole would probably fall to complete Turkish influence, due to their positions in Azerbaijan and the North Caucasus, and with Russia no longer a threat in their region. Georgia would likely reincorporate Abkhazia and South Ossetia with the aid of Turkey. It was possible that the Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria would grow far weaker, giving Turkey the opportunity to impose its own leader in the country, beginning the domino effect of their influence in the Middle East. Central Asia would find itself in a state of deep crisis without the peacekeeping power of Russia, and some kinds of wars can be expected there, either for water rights or the rise of Islamism as supported by regimes like the Taliban in Afghanistan. Ultimately China would have the power to restore order in Central Asia, and would greatly benefit as a result due to the abundance of natural resources and the expanded geographical influence it would have over continental Asia. In conclusion, Russia is a country that afford to collapse tomorrow. The effects of its collapse would cause a domino effect of instability far beyond its borders, due to alternate powers trying to pick up the pieces of the former Russian sphere of influence. A much different world would emerge after the instability, yet it would only last as long as China can keep itself together, which is something that I want to discuss in an upcoming video as well. Thank you all for watching. Be sure to like, subscribe, and share this content. I highly encourage you to donate to my Patreon and check out my Discord server so you can never miss a video of mine, and please hit the bell so you can never miss a video either. 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