 Hello and welcome to the CMC markets Monday market update with me David Madden market analyst here at CMC markets And today's date is Monday the 29th of January and the time has just gone at 12 15 p.m UK time and the quick rundown of the Monday market update is I'll cover the major economic events that are in the calendar for the next five trading next few trading sessions And then after that I'll take a quick look at some of the major markets as look at some of the potential levels We could that could be that could be important in the next few trading sessions Well, so the first thing we're going to do now is to take a quick look at the economic Economic calendar and for those of you who are familiar with our trading platform You know that it can be found under this type here under market pulse fourth option down gives you the market calendar gives you a breakdown of the figures that that that were that were released on As the numbers economic indicators come out It shows you the figure here in the actual in the actual column when the numbers are revealed Is it gives you comparison of what the forecast was for from after from the columnist and also from after manless? And also shows you that the prior figure as well So looking ahead to tomorrow Tuesday the 30th of January take a quick look at the economic calendar Let's watch out for tomorrow morning. We got French. We got French GDP We've spandex GDP at 8 in the morning at half 9 UK time We have consumer credit numbers coming out from the from the UK economy 10 o'clock tomorrow morning. We have the eurozone Consumer confidence and the big one to watch out for tomorrow is of course going to be German CPI Germany has been produced And first on economic indicators, but the inflation rate in Germany has been Steady-ish and that is that is an area for concern for the European set European Centre Bank President Mario Draghi And we also be looking at your eurozone CPI later on this week as well fast-forwarding on to through 3 o'clock tomorrow We have US consumer confidence That the the consumer these conference board numbers are coming out tomorrow at 3 o'clock Third turning our attention now to Wednesday. We have the CPI figures out from Australia and the early hours of Wednesday morning Scrolling down to the trading session. We have Manufacturers coming out of China's anybody trading the Australian dollar and high-grade copper and the mining companies At least we keep an eye on those sets of figures Later on on and on Wednesday morning. We have updates from Germany in terms of unemployment That's absolutely going to be a big one to watch out for and probably the biggest one Tuesday is going to be the eurozone CPI and we're spending euros on CPI to dip from 1.4% to 1.3% now this is a is a significant figure because the president of the European Centre Bank Mario Draghi Already has quite a loose monetary policy in place But he's typically on several occasions that he's willing to either expand the current program or extend it Should he should he feel it's required and one of the areas that he One of the areas that he feels that there is weakness in the eurozone economy is inflation and if inflation tends to slip back We could see I could be trader trader may view that as an indication That the cute that the loose pop monetary policy of the ECB is here to stay And that being what we could see in the back of that potentially a weaker euro on the flip side of that potentially stronger Eurozone equities such as the tax and the caq 40 in France in France later on Wednesday. We have Canadian Canadian growth figures Canadian GDP come out at half one on Wednesday morning. So Wednesday at lunchtime UK time Later on on Wednesday at half three as to do every week. We have the US all industry figures Thursday the big numbers to watch out for are going to be manufacturing figures from from from China This is the kaishin survey the private survey From China beyond the early hours of Tuesday morning. We've house price figures coming out of the UK That's 7 a.m. on Thursday the 1st of February Looking ahead to Thursday the bulk of Thursday is going to be taken up with the PMI manufacturing figures from Italy from France and Germany from eurozone as a whole from the Fondini Kingdom We also manufacture figures coming out from from Canada as well And as we do every single Thursday we've jobless claims figures coming out of the United States And it took me head to Friday Friday the 2nd of February the first Friday of the month So, you know what that means that is non-farm payroll. That's gonna be by far the biggest economic announcement of the week and of Friday I take taking a look now at the indicator here Respecting 180,000 jobs to have been added that compares with 148 in the previous month on employment is it is tipped to whole steady at 4.1% Earnings on a yearly basis are expected to grow by 2.6% that'll be improved on the previous reading of 2.5 And on a month-on-month basis average earnings are tipped to remain at the same growth rate of 0.3% This is going to be the most important economic indicator of the of the week I want but it comes to non-farm payrolls the devil is in the detail A lot of time the market will move that the knee jerk reaction the initial reaction to the non-farm payrolls report Will be this figure here? Will it be higher or lower than the 180,000? But the key for non-farm payrolls is that my view is that the entire report should be taken as a whole So you've got the headline figure which tends to kind of be the kind of first one out of the out of the gate And if it looks at and that can skew the dollar or can skew the Dow futures then traders Realize that there may or may not be Previsions to the previous month's number or the previous two months number So that 148 maybe revised higher and maybe revised lower. We also see a change in unemployment Or we could see better or worse than expected figures in terms of the actual earnings It's not it's it's happened probably on too many occasions We're by that said the headline figure was quite positive So it was quite positive for the US dollar Maybe set US equity slower and then the remainder of the port is quite negative We could see downward revisions to the previous most numbers we could see increase to an employment We could see the lower than expected growth rate from the earnings And then what was not uncommon to see the market moving in the opposite direction So if you're looking at non-farm payrolls and you go over the trade it My view is that you need to look at the report as a whole and make it an informed Judgment across the entire set of data that is released at half one UK time on Friday I'll take a look now at a few of the major markets Start up here with that. What's the futsy with hundreds look at some potential levels I think that could be important throughout the week. So the first thing you notice that we saw here Basically about two weeks ago exactly two weeks ago. We saw the futsy hit a fresh record high So the first indication that recently the the the move Indicative medium term has been positive in a solid upward trend here from December to the middle of to the middle of January Training an all-time high and we have seen the market pullback ever so slightly You have to see the market pullback since then so as I would suggest the upward trend that the market has been in It's still in place and this put this particular retreat here from in around seven thousand hundreds south down towards seven thousand six hundred and six hundred It appears here to be actually kind of correcting itself yet again So we could look for another move higher to the upside Notice how as the market was selling off here We saw a distinct increase in negative momentum. Now we're seeing negative momentum actually falls slightly So the sellers are the sellers and the bears are kind of running out of pressure running out of momentum I'm gonna see the market push higher here. So this could be The beginning of the next leg higher where the market looks to retake Seven thousand eight hundred and then potentially go beyond that up to say seven thousand nine hundred or even as high as a thousand Turning our attention now to what's going on over in Germany with the DAX The DAX similar similar not similar not similar ish We saw the market has broadly speaking to be moving higher over the past month But we created a fresh all-time high here only last Thursday or so last Tuesday rather But the market has come off ever since then and notice how as mark was pushing lower We saw a cooling in the positive momentum. So the buyers were running out of steam But now we're seeing the market gonna edge up again So this could be potentially the at the next leg higher on the on the DAX I'm sure you look to kind of push on higher from here We could be looking at heading heading towards back towards 13,600 and if you take out 30,000 30,600 next big psychological number to watch out for will be 13,700 moves lower than the DAX may have find some support in around this price action here of 13,400 we see a bit that part of it a price action and consolidation in around here and On a few occasions it did manage to act as resistance. So old resistance may now come potentially comes turn to support Take a look now. What's going on over the US markets the Dow Jones? And the other American indices are in are in the are still rolling in terms of book at a terms of their bull market moves Classy example of an oven a upper trend higher highs higher lows higher highs higher lows But a point where even the pullbacks in the Dow Jones aren't even actually that deep or leave or even that Or even I don't even last for that long Depends how you want to do how how how you want to play this do when they wait for see a pullback of 50 or 100 points They get into the market or do it by the market potentially in on this area and hope that we don't see any kind of short-term corrections But what we've seen on the Dow Jones for the last of our months is a classic example of a solid upward trend So the polish momentum is still very much there buying on the day has been a popular strategy for the last number of months But then there has been consistent talk of the market being overstretched that being said we have no From a charting point of view you see no signs that the market is about to give up I have a major correction in the near term at least so Looking higher here if you kind of continue on pushing out these levels We could be looking at try running twenty six thousand six hundred or twenty six thousand seven hundred so long Loose at the downside if you do see any any any pullbacks any sell-offs in the Dow We could potentially may find support some support in around this price area here of twenty six thousand four hundred and fifty seven Or perhaps even down down toward this price area here over twenty six thousand three hundred Take a look now on what's going on in the gold market Gold is obviously how I had a decent one recently given we had some sell-off is we had a bit of severe sell-off in the U.S. Dollar and gold here hail as highest level since august 2016 only on last Thursday and we have seen a bit of a correction a bit of a pullback since then so The market is clearly an upward trend goes between very well over the past six or seven weeks since middle of the Since middle of December we have seen a bit of a retracement here But areas to potentially find some support and gold make them into play in around the 1340 Region or perhaps even down as low as 1326 but the wider trend of the past six seven weeks to the upside is still is still intact If you take out the recent high which was created last Thursday of 1366 the next big level to watch out for will be 1375 1375 hasn't been seen on gold since July 2016 and if you go north of that then the next become a psychological number to keep an eye out for will of course be 1400 I Take a look at now a couple of currency pairs before you wrap this up as I mentioned There's a view of the economic indicators coming out from the eurozone and also from the UK this week that dimension Yeah, the non-farm At the mention non-farm perils at the back of the week this year is a chart for euro dollar And it's been in a consistent upward trend for many months now We've eaten fresh multi-year highs only last week and largely driven by the weak US dollar But as I said review eurozone CPI numbers out this week and growth figures in some years on country So that will be of that could add volatility to the market To the market isn't very much an upward trend moving north of here We could be looking if you continue this positive move we could be looking at reckoning 126 127 potentially this week Move to the downside if you see the pullbacks in the price of in the euro dollar We may find some support in around this price action here They could be there the lows of Tuesday in round 123 81 or perhaps even down as low as 123 the figure itself or even 122 it's in such a solid upward trend is a sort of market that We could see buyers enter the fold if we do see pullback seeing as buying of the dip has been a popular strategy on The euro versus US dollar for the previous few months And also the pound has been taking full advantage of the weakness in the US dollar too So taking a look here if you draw a trend line from the lows of March 2017 to the lows of August 2017 we can see here that a fair lot that those a few occasions where they were part of the pound dollar Didn't manage to kind of trade through that trend line under modifications But by and large it's managed to stay stay north of it over the last eight nine months or so Nine or ten months and even to the point where the rate of which the pound is pushing higher against the US dollar Is actually increasing so we can see in a steady upper trend last Thursday when the US dollar was particularly weak We saw the pound versus the pound register a fresh 18 month high 19 month high Versus the US dollar the highest level on that scene since the EU referendum vote in 2016 so it's clearly in a very solid upper trend Notice how as the market was pushing higher here It did manage to take up north of 143 and then ever since then has managed to turn over. So it's like It's like the bulls were kind of We're kind of running out of steam and now we are seeing that the markets actually it's a bit of profit-taking As a as a has kicked in I was in receiving starting pullback pullback as you see the the pullback here in the pound Versus the US dollar we can notice you see the positive momentum is declining. So The buying pressure is in decline. So we're seeing here is the market is so we could potentially see a further correction to this Pullback well, so we could head back down towards the Psychological important 140 region or perhaps even down as far as say one one thirty nine or one thirty eight We didn't see consolidation and as a product trading going on in those prices of Israel areas to potentially keep I know for the downside, but I just stated the wider upper trend is still very much in place on the pound versus the US dollar And he moves to the upside if you take up to retake one 143 we can look at and back up towards 144 145 Here's your potential area to keep a mile for if you trade the pound versus the US dollar this week Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you very much and have a good week