 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It feels like we've had a lot of low scoring primetime games so far this year in 2023 But on Sunday or Monday night tonight between the Broncos and the Bills a pretty high total over a Fandall sports But 47 and a half for that game and will we actually see an over potentially? We'll talk about that today in previewing Monday night football Ryan Williams is with us for today to break down that game talks and play our props at Fandall sports book We'll break down the spread the total and much more to get you ready to close out your week on a high note This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Monday by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan fresh off a fantastic week in DFS So welcome to the show. How you doing today? Oh We're doing great Jim. We're doing great. I guess I'm wearing a stealer shirt should be wearing a cowboy shirt Shout out to vintage branding cooks coming through for the squad yesterday just unbelievable And you know, I talked about or I didn't talk about because we didn't talk about DFS last week But I was talking with other people about how I didn't know what to do yesterday like yesterday just felt like a day where Anything could happen and just the good teams were in great spots and you know, I thought about going to the Ravens again But but yeah, you know, shout out to shout out to Dallas taking the Giants to the woodshed woodshed once again And and making it a profitable day for the Williams household I'm happy to hear it. Love to hear it You mentioned Brandon cooks and like there were a couple times yesterday where I confused Brandon cooks for Kovante Turpin Kovante Turpin is like the burstiest Wildest guy in the league as far as like speed. If I'm confusing Brandon cooks for him in 2023 That was well for the Cowboys because if Brandon cooks can do what he's doing Well, CD lamb looks like a top 3 receiver in football now top 5 receiver football Like that's gonna probably bode well for them least against, you know, if they could play the Giants Right, exactly. I mean, that's what would be favorable for them for McCarthy and Jerry Jones, most likely Absolutely. It was fun to watch. I'm glad that you were able to benefit from it And hopefully we can close out your weekend on high note too with this Broncos at Bill's game We're gonna break down Broncos and bills here in just one second to get you ready for some Monday night football But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We were here every weekday Monday through Friday in addition to some one-off shows from top Vecchio to previous Thursday and Sunday night football all those shows are right here in the covering of the spread of podcast feed If you like what you hear leave us a five start rating on Apple podcasts or over on Spotify as well You can find the daily shows here on a faddle TV plus and the faddle YouTube page Score early this NFL season with faddle America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bet any winning $5 moneyline bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining faddle There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options clean spreads player props totals and more So visit faddle a kickoff the NFL season faddle official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Faddle is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC first online real money wager only five dollar pregame and money line which required $10 first deposit required Bonus issue is now a travel bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat C terms at sportsbook.faddle.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit faddle.com slash rg in colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat connecticut 1 809 and with it in indiana 1 805 222 4700 or visit ksgamblinghealth.com in kansas 1 877 770 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at organ marillons 1 800 yam work dot net in west virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you 103 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 supported massachusetts or call 1 877 8 open y or text open lie in new york Let's dig in now to the broncos at the bills right now at faddle sportsbook The bills are seven point favorites total in this game is 47 and a half and ryan this spread was seven and a half Earlier all this week, but a sense tightened by a half point. It's now seven Do you think that movement in denver's favor is the right direction here? Yeah, i'm i mean Does it move in denver's favor or does it move in buffalo's favor jim? you know because it's like The winds of buffalo and i know the past two Winds have not hit this uh hit this spread of seven But when we're talking about traditionally like with josh allen and the buffalo bills winning like They go out and they win by seven points or more like that's what they were doing at the beginning of the season That's what they've done historically And so like the seven and a half really did not feel great for me to want to take buffalo at home here But now that it's at seven i'm like, yeah, I could probably I could probably ride with that number Denver is coming off of there by so, you know, you kind of think about what what kind of changes that they have made But this is a hostile environment to have to play in you know You're looking at the buffalo bills there and we talked about it with the afc like the chiefs weren't playing You know, uh yesterday the the ravens lose a tough one to the browns the bingles, you know We're you know reeling After they won four straight and so the bills have a chance to kind of you know Put themselves back into the conversation here at home And you know, I think that they'd be able to do so against Sean patin rustle Wilson and company and so while you know the hook might lend in denver's favor And we have a lot of you know the public money Coming on to denver um at that seven number And we'll see if we could trust rosa wilson, but I just have not been able to uh to trust the broncos in some time And you talk about you know playing a team consistently like We're Holding the chiefs to 27 points um across two games and I just you know The the chiefs are the are the chiefs, but they also haven't looked like themselves this year as well too So are we putting more stock into those games than we should be? And let's see what buffalo has in the hopper But I feel like they're they're gonna be reeling and want to showcase uh that they still belong in the conversation on monday night Yeah, that's where I'm at too. I think this spread is a little bit light right now I I did lay at seven and a half personally when it was there So it doesn't feel great that it moved back to seven But the reason that I was willing to lay that was because a my model does show a lot of value there I've got the bills by double digits so getting a seven and a half even was kind of you know It's not a number you love, but I do think that It's there for a reason and that reason is that this bill's offense is still playing very good football the defense They're struggling and I think that's sustainable. I think they will continue to struggle given that all the key players They've lost defensively. I don't expect them to suddenly turn things around there, but do we trust? Russel Wilson, Sean Payton to be the team That like punishes them for their middling level defense And I personally don't like we've had a lot of focus on the denver Defense like you said, maybe we're waiting putting too much weight on that kins city game But also like this offense hasn't been that good. They're a bit better ones who adjust for opponents so Like they're not bad, but if I look at just my 2023 numbers on offense They are currently my 18th ranked offense By my numbers again, that's just for 2023. I had a decent prior them coming into this year You know showing faith and also Wilson faith in Sean Payton. So they're about the same if you include the prior, but I don't know. I just I just don't have a lot of faith that they will be the team that really Exposes the flaws in this bill's team the bills Like you said keep their foot on the gas even when they're up because probably because they can't run the football So they kind of have to keep throwing but like they do have a tendency to throttle team So I did lay the seven and a half when it was there So don't feel great about it moving against me with it going back to seven But that's why I was there is that this this bill's team this offense is still very good I mentioned denver is 18th in offense for me Buffalo second with no prior involved. They're behind san francisco and above miami. That's where they sit right now for me So that's why I'm there and also ryan when you combine The bill's offense with still skepticism around the the bronca's defense with the large spread I actually did take the over one as a 47 now 47 and a half I can't get there anymore Because I've got a 49.39. So there's still a bit of value on my side With regards to the total but like maybe not as much there 47 is a key number So what's to read on this total with it now up to 47 and a half? Yeah, 47 and a half We we need buffalo putting up 30 points like that's just how I feel with with this with this spread Can can we get you know russia wilson to to dig back into the time chamber and and really come out here and You know put up 21 points for For for denver sure But yeah, I mean we want four scores here our score in every quarter from from buffalo at minimum To get to the 28 30 threshold in order to get this going now I will say you know part of what buffalo part of what buffalo is a killy hill has been is they have not been able to start Games out early in the way that they would want to I think you know over the course of their five games They've only had four the past five games They've only had four first half touchdowns and that's just not what we know of the buffalo bills Like they have to come out here They have to come out firing if we get the buffalo bills putting up like 14 points or something like that in the first quarter Like 21 points in the first half. I think we're feeling good about that 47 and a half number But that's kind of what we're that's what we're gonna go for I'm I'm willing to kind of take that shot because I actually like both passing quarterback props in this match up So i'm going to take the 47 and a half and go off of the reservation of what we normally been doing With the undersitting and insane rate. I believe we only have one monday night football game this year That's hit on the over everyone else has been on the under and prime time unders are just hitting at an insane rate this year So, uh, but what's you know, what's what's not to like there? I mean it is buffalo at home and you know the type of things that you know Leading us into week 10. It was just like again You got to get you got to get some of these like narratives and some of the things that have happened Like all season just kind of out of your out of your brain out of your memory Who we're going into new weeks and like this would not be a game where you know We would be surprised if buffalo put up like 35 points At home in a favorable matchup against the Denver team that we have not been able to trust since russell wilson has been there as the quarterback So yeah, i'm riding with you jim. Uh, I like the 47 and a half but in that same vein I'm trying to get every type of you know, bonanza number that I can get Um for the bills to be able to put up points in this in this manner because I feel like they're gonna they're gonna carry that The time well, let's talk about it them Let's talk about that bill's offense break down some player props on their side of things Dalton kinkade clio Shakir both got a pretty big boost recently With doson ox on ir so some of the bills side of things ryan given where things are right now Where do you see value for bills props for tonight? Yeah, well, I think it's it's on the two guys that you mentioned uh with doson ox being out You know pretty favorable matchup for for dalton kinkade here. Uh, this guy has been absolutely incredible I I don't know what the number off the top of my head But his catch rate has to be like 80 or above when being targeted. This dude just does not They're they're linking up every time that the ball comes his way. It's it's been incredible I love his reception number At five and a half on the over plus money there I just feel like this is a matchup where he could get involved against dimper Who's kind of you know, they're not one of the worst teams against tenants But they do allow, you know a little bit of production there To the tight end group and You know year of the rookie tight end. I know I think you so you sent a tweet out last night I'm about the rookie tight ends and it's just incredible and I don't even really think of dalton kinkade As a tight end. He's he's a wide receiver. He's getting in line out wide So love the dalton kinkade props. I am going to be interested In the other guys not stephane digs too from the wide receiver standpoint petrick Patrick sertan Probably going to be on stephane digs there I would think I mean coming out of the buy like what do you want to do you want to stop the number one receiver? So they'll do their best But you know stephane digs to stephane digs, but gabriel davis and khalil shekir's Numbers just aren't high enough like especially if i'm expecting points if i'm expecting You know buffalo to kind of come out here and be able to move the ball Then i'm liking shekir's number i'm liking gave davis number gave davis's air yards like are just really insane So he could hit this, you know 39 and a half number on two catches like that's just the type of of player that he is Khalil shekir has just been getting more involved without dos and knocks being around he has four receptions I believe in three straight games and you know his reception number again comes in at three and a half At plus money. I like shekir To hit that too plus 130 32 on that number as well. So yeah, I mean it's pretty much all action like We can talk about it jim. I just have I don't know the last time that I've put hard earned money On a buffalo bills running back to do anything Of the nature outside of maybe score a touchdown with like latavius murray But like I just the volume is just it's just not there Like maybe you could take some shots on james cook from his receiving number But I just I just never can get behind them like this team wants to pass They want to pass three out of four times when you give them the chance like passing is just as good as rushing To this offense and so for me it's getting all the props that I can on their pass catchers And I think you're taking the right props with them because of the archetype of players that those are So like you mentioned the concave reception prop You know five and a half perceptions is a lot and you mentioned his catch rate And a lot of times when a guy has a high catch rate you expect regression But concave does not get deep targets. They are all Near the line of scrimmage and those are high percentage throws. So You know, it's not six targets mean six receptions But it's kind of a long that vein where he's going to have a higher catch rate than usual As a result of where he gets His targets at so I think that's a good thing for him Shakira exact same thing where he's a slot guy Gets a lot of stuff towards the line of scrimmage. So I want the reception props in those guys versus the yardage props So Shakira over three and a half plus 132 can kate over five and a half plus 114 Talking about gape davis, uh, the baseline number you mentioned 39 and a half I think if I want to go to gape, that's where I go towards the alt numbers because Davis is volatile And that's fine. I don't mind volatility if I can benefit from it and with davis I think that's where I think you can, you know, looking at the alt numbers fadwell knows this like they're not stupid You're not getting a ton of extra leeway by going, you know, 60 plus yards is plus two tan That's not a huge number by any means when his baseline number 39 and a half So they understand the distribution of the way he gets his his targets the way that he gets his yardage It's more so in chunks versus in small gains So but I do think that even though fadwell is aware of this and they are accounting for that in the way they Mark them out. I still think I'd want to check out davis and the alternate markets to rack up some yardage Maybe that means a touchdown bet instead. I think he's plus two 20 or somewhere around there to score a touchdown but I think that the the upside markets are where you want to go with davis So I think that you're playing it the right way ryan in checking out the reception numbers for concade and for Shakir But then looking at the receiving yardage numbers and the upside markets for davis I think that's the way I'd want to play things here personally Yeah, definitely and if we're looking at gave davis longest reception of the game He comes in at six and a half to one there plus 650 Which I think is is pretty enticing to to Cash in on that Yeah, the fact that he's behind Marvin men's and jerry judy is weird It's very like marvin men's might not have a catcher. They've talked about getting his roll up like They might let's talk about the broncos side of things because ryan. They have been the worst this year They have been so frustrating. We're like You're not a good enough offense to spread things out the way you do And so like I hate the broncos from a a prop perspective from a daily fantasy perspective So you talk me through the broncos side of things because I want nothing to do with anything tied to them Yeah, you It actually cracked me up. You know, we always talk about the rundown Going into going into the shows and I was looking at it Actually this morning. I was late to it But uh, and you talked about the the broncos spread the ball around and I was like jim made a mistake here Like he's talking about the bills You know going back through the fats and it's like no actually The russell wilson and the broncos team are just you know getting so many of these of these guys involved And I just don't know why You know at some point, I guess it may be made a little bit of sense When jerry judy was thought to be on the trading block and and what have you and trying to you know switch up the teams here But you know, they they have two Two players that I think should really be touching the ball, you know every chance that they get it's courtland Sutton It's jerry judy And they need to be able to find these guys in space against buffalo who's been giving up, you know big plays As as recently, you know to the wide receivers courtland sunburn courtland Sutton's dumper is just wrong to me Like this dude has been an absolute catalyst for this offense. Absolutely insane like catching a touchdown I believe he has touched on in six out of eight games this year Really has been hit in a stride with russell wilson like as that security blanket Especially with the tight end situation that they have dulcich has been on ir they have adam trotman there You know another sean patin guy But courtland Sutton at 45 and a half just feels wrong I mean jerry judy, you know in the sense of like if buffalo is putting up, you know 28 30 points They have to pass. Um jerry judy at 52 and a half, you know makes a lot of sense as well, too I just you know, it's just the matter of the completion rate Like is russell wilson going to be able to find these guys or are they just going to have a lot of drives that Stole out but in even in that sense if like buffalo struck or a buffalo Denver struggling Um, I still like court and some Sutton's number Um anywhere that I can get it the one guy who I just I never know what to do with is javante Williams like And you know shout out to javante Williams coming out from coming back from the injury and and all that he's done to Kind of get himself back, uh to to the mold and it's been great. But like jaleel mcglockland is is a stuff I hate to say stuff, but he's pretty good. Uh And watch them run I think I think jaleel's number at rushing and receiving what you have up here at 23 and a half Like if this game kind of gets out of hand and out of reach like do they give mcglockland more reps? They're coming out of the bi-week. I think we're going to see some different stuff from Denver I wonder what that is. Maybe it's using two backs. And so Getting some action on on jaleel here is something that I am kind of interested in Yeah, mcglockland as you mentioned his number is 23 and a half for rushing plus receiving over as minus 114 Javante will answer 74 and a half is minus 114 I have interest in that number because they did using quite a bit right before their bi-week And now it's had another week to rest up and get that knee healthy from where he was Coming off the entry. I just really worry about game script given the The way that my numbers show this game playing out So I think that's why mcglockland interests on your behalf is probably smart Because it might not be a great situation to get to javante Williams As far as the past catchers go Give a preference between Sutton and Judy Sutton's number is 45 and a half Judy 52 and a half preference for you between those two If you were forced to pick one I would take Sutton. Okay, cool. Yeah, I think that's that's a lower number He's been like he looked has looked like typical courtland Sutton like where he's just like Mossing dudes like left and right like that's just kind of what he does So I think that that does make a lot of sense. Let's talk some touchdown props Ryan Any touchdown props you are digging over at vandal sportsbook for this week Yeah, uh, I I think we're looking at uh, gabe davis anytime touchdown plus 220 I think he he kind of gets back into the bold This week is like you're saying he's boomer bust, but you know on the on the boom games that we get You those dudes tend to pay off. Um, so I find that very interesting I mean delton can cade to get the first touchdown of the game At 11 to 1 like what's not to like there the the bills actually have four of the top props in in this market, but uh, you know, if I was looking at the denver side I'd possibly be looking at courtland Sutton there at 16 to 1 He's just been the red zone red zone target red zone favorite But uh, but yeah, I mean outside of that, you know, we're taking the usual suspects Um across the board. I do like josh allen Alt touchdown market. Um, if we're looking at him to throw three touchdowns It's plus 240 him to throw four touchdowns is plus 870 like You know, uh, again, it's To get to the 47 and a half number like what does buffalo need to do they need to put up points How are they doing that? I likely think through the air You know, there is some merit there where you're thinking, okay Does josh allen rush one in or you know, do they get kind of you know They get wonky with who they've given the ball to but even the shovel pass that they use like five yards out From the end zone, you know, three touchdowns I feel like it is great a great number to be on at plus 240 And then if you're really feeling if you're really feeling it then go for that four touchdown there plus 870 Okay, I love that. So four plus touchdowns for josh four plus passing touchdowns for josh allen Plus 870 a fan dual sports book. That is a very fun number As well any other props you want to talk about for tonight ryan before we close up shop No, I think I think those are those are the main ones if you if you do If you are taking the buffalo side of things, I will say try and get some action on the first half Spread there four and a half For buffalo minus 105 try and get their first half, you know Points if you can where you can I just I just really feel like if buffalo is going to Get this done tonight if they really have to come out early and showcase Showcase what they can do All right that first half spread a buffalo minus four and a half is minus 105 at fan dual sports book for tonight That is all we have here for today But do not worry because ryan is back with us once again for tomorrow We'll talk about some futures coming out of the All the craziness that went down in week number 10 breaking down thoughts on that in the future We want to grab heading into week 11. So ryan is back with us for tomorrow But ryan for today. Thank you once again as always congratulations on your very nice weekend in dfs And hopefully we can finish up with another good night for tonight. Thank you. Yeah, let's finish week 10 strong Have a good one everybody That is ryan williams checking out on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w i am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and find fendall research on twitter At fendall research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across monday night football We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to dig in the futures market heading into week number 11 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network