 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you, don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues If you find the content I provide on my youtube channel useful, so Getting into this week's fundamental and Analysis and risk sentiment analysis and we're going to start off on the u.s. jobs recovery Fulter as virus surge snaps hiring streak. Why is that important because jobs are Assigned I guess and leading indicator of the economy So very disappointing numbers a payroll US payroll drop 140,000 the mid-December virus surge So the US labor market jobs lost jobs in December for the first time in eight months reflecting a plunge in restaurant employment That highlights how surging coronavirus infections are taking greater toll on parts of the economy so the US economy doesn't look like it's recovering as well as expected and One of the things that will affect I guess has an effect on I guess a recovering US economy or I should say a Recession is slumping US dollar and the slumping US dollar is actually regardless of what Traders may think Technical analysis traders for an economy a weaker currency a devalued currency a depreciating currency actually is desired in a In a recession, right? So you don't want a an expensive currency because an expensive currency makes you less competitive And a slumping dollar creates problems for central banks elsewhere So, you know currency strength creates headwinds for economic recovery, right? Central banks may step in verbally to contel to curtail a sense So the euro and the yen are flirting with valuations unseen for years as dollar weakness creates headaches of policymakers all the world over Granted the the path higher may be rocky as seen with the greenback pairing is declined Wednesday morning in New York On Haven demands after the New York Stock Exchange reverse course and said it still plans to D-list three major Chinese companies That really isn't relevant. So, you know to the slumping dollar too much, but just understand that Trade Shorting the dollar the general consensus is to short the dollar, but the dollar won't be a short forever because as I say the Evalued currency actually boosts exports and The dollar will have it stay in the sun at some point, but for now it is a Cell I think and also as well Be aware that the euro and the yen may have to do more Then just talk the currency down. They may have to actually implement You know stimulus measures in order to actually weaken their currency to help their economies if their economies, you know start to Not really get out the recovery phase and going on to the euro euro area economic confidence rises despite new virus curbs So unlike the US The economic confidence I guess is more sentiment driven in the euro area picked up in December with Manufacturers in particular showing resilience against the resurgent pandemic. That's triggered tougher restrictions across the region. So Europe Doing a bit better than the than the US when it comes to Economic sentiment anyway, not too sure about the GDP side of things But the strength at the moment is with the euro and not really with the US dollar So obviously that would mean potential Longs on the euro dollar currency pair if we're looking at that from a fundamental perspective Bank of England governor Bailey warns brexit will Bring big economic losses. So central bank chief weighs into politically charged issue Boris Johnson Our prime minister government has held trade deal with the EU. So brexit deal has been done But it seems like the the Bank of England governor Bailey is Thinking that the brexit deal will actually bring economic losses, which means a potential Double-dip recession is what they're talking about in the UK. We're handling the virus quite poorly When compared to other countries as well So although the pound has been on the on an upward trajectory potentially there is a shorting opportunity coming definitely on the horizon very shortly and The pound may fall versus the dollar amid recession risk credit agriculture says so The pound is set to weaken against the US dollar as the UK faces risk of double-dip recession and a rate cut By the Bank of England according to Valentin Marinov head of G10 FX research and strategy at credit agricultural Current levels in cable up potentially a good level to take profit Marinov on Bloomberg markets said in the European Open so although the dollar might be a Still potentially a sell against the euro doesn't it could be a buy against the pound the pound may be the worst of the of the three currencies and When you have currencies that are being devalued negative interest rates and falling one of the Assets to where that benefits from that is gold and silver and gold and silver tumble a little bit Which will get into the technicals in a little bit with higher yields dimming metal appeal So gold I'm sure of you many of you saw this on Friday gold wiped out gains for the week and silver tumbled the most in September as US Treasury yields extended a rally and the dollar Recovered, but what you have to understand is that the dollar devaluation of currencies devaluation around the world It's really not going to stop and plus it's talking about you know inflation coming back into the the market and what is inflation inflation is really devaluation and a weaker currency and a depreciating currency so Or depreciating prices. So although gold may tumble in the short term doesn't mean that You know that the gold long trade Sentiment is over. It just means that you can buy gold now and silver if you're looking for a bargain price This is now the time potentially to buy obviously. This is not financial advice but If you are looking to buy gold obviously you want a pullback and this may be an opportunity to Get involved long gold and a pullback So looking at this week's the week ahead the calendar really the Important news this week for the dollar for the dollar is really you got core inflation on Wednesday and inflation rate The higher this goes Forecast actually is is for 1.2. So it doesn't look like it's really going anywhere But again anything above that will be I Guess dollar Positive or negative depending on how you you want to trade the dollar Friday the 15th of January we've got pound trade balance Is important and then into the week after I think we've got I think there's really nothing else this week That's really important on the on trading economics. Let me go to two stars and see if there's anything there a bit more Monday we've got Australia Bank of England speaks nothing really Tuesday Joe openings nothing really market moving present the guard speaks Industrial production. Let me see oil trade oil came up the statement. I think maybe something like the GDP growth may be important for Germany and for Europe if Germany GDP is up then that would be actually quite positive for the whole of Europe as Germany are Europe's powerhouse Jobless claims. I think import and export prices are quite important as well for inflation and Yep, I think that's pretty much It's what we've got on the Friday Consumer sentiment business industrial production Nothing really market moving over trade balance is quite important as well because again that that helps with GDP a healthy trade balance pushes GDP up so Nothing really major I can see on the on the on the week ahead So let's see anyways now getting into the Technicals and starting off as we always do on the dollar index and dollar index Dollar index We've got some you know a bit of a pullback I'm expecting a pullback on the dollar index to be fair because We've literally been in this downtrend since for the pretty much the whole since since March you've pretty much seen dollar decline and especially when you get quite steep Moves to the downside with no major pullbacks at some point prices may want to pull back Or should pull back Because prices don't go down forever, right? You've got you know liquidity problems, etc If there's not enough liquidity to the downside in the price Then the markets will look for liquidity to the upside to get short. So For me, I think the first area to look for any kind of short trades not necessarily on the Dollar index you'd be looking for this is just confluence On a dollar cross would be Probably somewhere around there where you've got supply, but you've also got a level of you know support and resistance. So Support and resistance adds to the supply and demand zone equation at a level and understanding why there's likely to be More supply at that area technically then demand and that's all confluence is is just looking at why There's likely to be more sell orders or supply orders Then buy orders or demand orders at an area from a technical analysis perspective You know, but we must always take into account The fundamentals because the fundamentals are really what drives prices to where they are going to go in the medium to long term short term is more more to do with liquidity and really kind of market making moving on to the dollar yen and dollar yen Prices have come up to a bit of a supply zone here. So if you are looking to get Short on the dollar long on the Japanese yen here is actually a decent level to look for any kind of short trades Providing again that you want to be shorting the dollar and long the Japanese yen You'd probably want to be longer Japanese yen in a risk-off Environment meaning that when there's a lot of uncertainty and fear in the market The money tends to flow into the Japanese yen But also when you're trading the Japanese yen look for a sell-off in the stock market as well for Some confluence that there is definitely some risk-off sentiment coming into the market There's also another level. I think up top rounds here She let me zoom out. I think there is probably something more around there You know, I think that is a decent level as you've got some Support support support bit support there and it's a bit of resistance to the other side there So yeah, that's where we are now and then you've got another area putting some localized Resistance probably at the top so you've got daily rejections their level resistance resistance and so this one oh four seven seven the area is probably where the Second area of support and resistance may be Drag out slightly a little bit And that would be if you want to get sure if you want to get long on the dollar I think this this area here is actually decent for a potential long dollar We've been trending down for a while so we could enter into a ranging market if prices do come down into that demand zone Prices have proved that there is definitely, you know, the dollar at the moment 102 is a bargain Move 200 pips up, you know broke some some previous supply there So what you're looking for is maybe a pullback and then understanding that we could potentially be Buying at another bargain area for the dollar looking at the dollar Swiss And the dollar Swiss so far We've just had this bit of a pullback into a nice supply zone. So again potential shorts going on anywhere around here I personally If I was looking to get short again looking at that area there of level of resistance Let me zoom out a little bit. Nothing really I would say that's the level of resistance. I would look to get short and So a bit more of a pullback for me before looking at any kind of short trades If you're looking at getting long there is some demand here, but not necessarily the strongest area of demand at the moment I probably want prices to really kind of move Maybe even pass that supply zone before even thinking about getting long on the dollar I think that's it for now Your dollar CAD so looking at dollar CAD again We've got supply here, but not the strongest area of supply to be fair and you're buying really if you're looking to buy the Canadian dollar by shorting this currency pair You know, that's really not the greatest level. I think and this this one two eight Five to one two nine five area Supply zone for me is a really nice area to look for short trades plus potential confluence of Support and resistance right here That is quite nice that the top end of that that supply zone right there is decent For a potential short if you're looking at again long trades, I wouldn't even look at long trades right now I really would want price to prove that there is value for the dollar against the Canadian dollar first before thinking about getting Long then wait for it to pull back into that area and look for any kind of long trades moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and We're getting a bit of a pullback finally But again, we're still quite in a bit of an expensive area when it comes to the New Zealand dollar US dollar I my bias is to the long side, but I want to see a deeper pullback before getting Long there are some levels that you could potentially look at again for confluence There is a bit of support and resistance horizontal support and resistance In that area there and you've got a little bit pulling on top there and then The bottom end right there. So Those are the areas potentially for long trades again. I'm not really too keen on this this this area if it comes down to that Demand zone there it could work Nobody really knows exactly which level is going to work But if it doesn't you get an entry trigger brilliant But personally I prefer to really want to buy a bit of a Cheaper price to one zero point seven one area, especially that zero point seventy area If prices can pull back to that zone there that for me is a nice buy Again, not financial device Pound dollar we've got a very very wide area of demand and when you get again wide areas of demand What you want to do is just basically break up the zone using support and resistance. You've got a level of Resistance there resistance there there there you can see it where prices kind of went above came back and it bounced up so decent and And then you've also got another area within that wide area of demand, which is basically that zone right there You've got another area right here You've got support and resistance with the pound potentially weakening against the the dollar You could see prices start to you know for when if they do then this actually would be a pullback to you know Some sort of supplier would be a really really nice short, but it depends on what happens to the price of The British pound and whether you really want to be even be a buyer of the dollar at the moment so Fundamentally, I'm not too keen on this currency pair at all, but it could provide there's some decent Trading opportunities in the next week or two moving on to the euro dollar euro dollar Come back down into this demand zone. We made higher highs higher lows And now potentially there could be a trade but again similar to I think it was the New Zealand dollar For me it's you're really kind of buying at the high of the market consider this You know to be the absolute low and you can see prices have really made higher highs higher lows If this is a bargain area, this is cheap. Yeah, this has got to be expensive So for me, I probably want a bit more of a pullback before looking at getting Long on this currency pair, which my bias is to the long side for now So again a bit of a pullback into some confluence right there Zooming out I think the next major confluence would probably be around this one Point one nine area There are pretty some lower support and resistance zones in here, but I'll go over that with the private discord members group as well as all the other technical analysis tools that we use to identify the strongest areas of Demand this is just a couple of you know Tools that we use but there's a there's a lot more that we actually look at to identify the strongest areas of demand and Supply so Euro dollar for me fundamentally is a buy But there are you know, there is probably maybe a sell trade You can look at this area of supply here. Not the strongest area of supply But if it starts to You know come down a bit more into this zone Then that's an opportunity potentially to short the the euro and buy the the US dollar But again waiting for proof of value that I don't like that supplies I'm not yet anyway needs to come down prove that it's a strong area of supply and then That for me if I was looking to get short on that US dollar From a technical analysis perspective that would be the trade Euro yen and Euro yen has come up to this this quite Supply zone that kind of started in the 20 March 2019 so for me recent supply it's gone above that I really want for me to kind of short this area again for price to prove that there is supplied there Then a pullback to that zone and then I'm looking at potentially shorting as well as Looking for a risk off environment because like I said the Japanese yen would benefit in a risk off environment Doesn't mean that prices can't pull back. They can pull back even in a risk on environment depending on what's going on with the euro fundamentally, but for me This pairs a bit more of a difficult read if I was to you know Take any kind of trade on this it would have to be to the upside bit of a pullback to any kind of demand And then look for any any long trades When it comes to support resistance, I think there's just a localized one right here that kind of stands out around that zone there Zoom out nothing really major So more of a localized support zone that had been used so decent But this would be the best area to look for for me anywhere a nice long trade Around here at one two four price zone Is decent for a long euro yen trade moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar and again Really buying at the highs is You got you know be very cautious because again if you have a move that really hasn't had any major pullbacks You know no major pullbacks then at some point the market has to you know find the liquidity So potentially we could see prices come down even break that zone if it does break that zone brilliant for me I'm looking for some long trades, and I think if I looking at any kind of a major levels of Confluence within those demand zones. I think that zone right there is decent I think probably the 75 area is decent as well There is another zone up top that's 76 30 levels So intraday that could be decent because you've got enough, you know trades to the upside. Let's say for example that's your risk Is your risk potentially a few people you've got 30 pips you've got enough trade trading room to the upside to make You know some decent pips so You know that's that's decent, but again personally I would want prices to really kind of Come really further down a bit further down before looking at because my potential upside is even more from a pick perspective so Australian dollar buyers pretty much all the way for me for now But again, I'm quite choose with my levels So I'll have to do a bit more analysis with the private members in order to To establish the the exact, you know zones. I'm looking at Australian dollar yen again We've just had this tear due to risk on the vaccine Global recovery and you're seeing You know prices make higher highs higher lows anyone who says that fundamentals doesn't work doesn't have a clue What they're talking about and I wonder if they are really currency traders Anyway, you know, I mean a proper just technical analysis traders doesn't mean you're a currency trader because how can you be a currency trader and not know things like interest rates inflation GDP and how it affects exchange rates, but Pulling back to a demand zone Yeah, is again The the the play in a risk on Environment but again just understanding where you want to be potential Buying I would probably say you've got that area there. You've got What's the reason what's of the obvious so and probably the bottom end of that zone as well I'm probably think that there might be something around here as well Right there So for me, I think these areas here that 79 and then just below that would be Maybe the first areas to look for potential buyers You've definitely got at least a hundred pips to the upside a hundred and fifty pips to the upside if this is an expensive area That's an expensive area and prices should come back down to around here And then you've got one fifty to the upside potentially if price does react off that level Nobody knows what level exactly it's going to react off But if it does and we get like a little entry trigger around here, we do some more confluence technical analysis wise Then we then we can look for potential trades on this Currency pair and looking at gold so on Friday massive move down the dollar had some terrible news yet that the Gold went, you know to the downside and that just basically leads me to believe that this is a big old liquidity hunt that's all this is Prices have actually come down to a nice cheaper area if you think about where you are from Zoom out a little bit. This was obviously seen as a bargain area, right? This area here prices went to the high and now this is seen as expensive So between an expensive area and a bargain area is Fair value which would be somewhere around here. And so we're actually below fair value So this is more the bargain territory and 50% here between a high and a low is Known as fair value. So now fair value for gold is somewhere around here And then it's now just looking for potential entries if that works brilliant if it doesn't work It's okay, as long as you understand fundamentally why you're buying gold And you wait for prices to come down to the absolute bargain area and then look at your potential upside If you're right about gold being Devalued or buying a bargain area around here Around the 1780 price 1770 1760, yeah You'll write prices continue to go higher reach the all-time high look at the risk and look at the reward so Don't chase price if you understand Value value is not price and price is not value What this let it what this is basically doing is drawing traders into the short side because basically it's creating liquidity and Yeah, those traders are probably get caught. Maybe on the wrong side of the of the Of the gold long trade if you know prices start to do something like that, etc But again, nobody knows just an idea. Let me just basically, you know do our fundamental analysis and see how the It plays out in the future. So That's it for now again. I hope you enjoyed the analysis Don't forget to like subscribe share and if you do want to become a member of the discord group you can for literally 99 p a day head over to the trading 180 website and take a look and really get in-depth analysis on supply and Demands nothing that you will never see on YouTube apart from my channel And there's lots of things that you don't see on my channel that I show to the private members group Anyways guys take care and I will speak to you soon