 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is our final ding or Tuesday before we get to week one of the NFL season I feel like I haven't done a good enough job this year of Respecting this holy day. That is Dinger Tuesday. So for today. We're gonna talk about some baseball here on the show I will talk about my favorite Dinger Tuesday pick of the night over at Fandall Sportsbook We'll also talk through some money lines and strikeout props. I like for tonight Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to break down Tuesday's MLB Slay with once again all 30 teams in action for tonight So plenty to choose from for money lines strikeout props Of course our Dinger Tuesday selection as well We'll dive into all that here throughout the show for today But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find us wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear Leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or on Spotify as well Tomorrow our college football week one preview with Dr. Ed Fang will be up talking about biggest games for this upcoming week With Ed as always we also have a season-long player prop show for the NFL Up with JJ Zachary's and already posted to get those on the covering the spread podcast feed Fandall YouTube and Fandall TV plus get ready for the NFL season with incredible offer some Fandall America's number one sports book right now new Customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars in bonus bets guaranteed plus all customers who bet five dollars will get $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV Now is the best time to join Fandall the app is easy to use and you can be on or bet on everything From the player or spreads and player props and more Fandall efficient partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and present in select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is non-lidrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com Rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona call 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or business easy PG dot org slash chat, Connecticut 1 800 9 with it in Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 visit ksgambling health comm in Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health at orc in Maryland 1 800 gambler.net in West Virginia call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open wire in New York NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 9 18 23 no refunds terms and embargo supply a hundred dollars off NFL Sunday ticket not YouTube TV YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV Redemption requires a Google account and current form of payment commercial use is excluded Let's dig in now to this Tuesday MLB Satan start things off with the money lines I like for tonight over at fandall sports But the first one is going to be when we were on last night at actually the exact same number That did not go in our favor that is he Boston Red Sox taking on Houston Astros right now the Red Sox money line is minus 120 and Despite what occurred last night. I do still think that the Red Sox are a bit undervalued here at minus 120 as Of right now the Red Sox facing JP France tonight They just saw him last week down in Houston and in that game they chased him after two and a third innings and France allowed ten earned runs in that game now That was kind of an anomaly for France because his results have been very good recently but I don't think it was totally out of nowhere because His peripherals have not been great pretty much the entire year if we turn to France's past ten outings Including that Red Sox game He has a 4.74 skill interactive era and his hard hit rate is about average at thirty eight point nine percent now We do see pitchers who are able to outperform their peripherals over a large sample But usually when we have those guys, they are pitchers who are outliers are very good in Suppressing hard contact they get great bad at ball beta and as mentioned France isn't really that guy for the most part He's facing Brian Bayo. He held Easton to one run across seven innings last time out Pushed his ERA down to three point four one across twelve starts with more sinkers And his peripherals also not quite as dazzling as the results But the peripherals for Bayo better than they are for France and does get a lot of ground balls Which does help so my model has Boston winning this game 56.9 percent of the time their current implied odds are fifty four point six percent So not a huge gap But does favor Boston in this game and I agree with what the model is saying So I will take the Red Sox to win over the Astros minus 120 for tonight over at Vanduul sports book second money line is a bit longer and a bit riskier because we're going up against Clayton Kershaw and It's with an offense that is not necessarily lit up lefties so far this year in the Arizona Diamondbacks But I do think Arizona is undervalued here at plus one seventy six over at Vanduul sports book This one is Clayton Kershaw taking on Meryl Kelly and Kershaw the velocity for him has not looked great since he came off the aisle it's a three-star example and one of those is very very short because He was suspended due to rain, but His fastball velocity is down about point seven miles per hour from where it was right before he hit the aisle And his slider is down point six miles per hour Kershaw still been effective because he has shown in the past that he does not need Massive velocity to be good and his Velo this year pre-injury was up from where it was last year when he had very good results So he doesn't need to have good velocity to be Clayton Kershaw But it is a little bit concerning now he's facing Meryl Kelly He is also Semi fresh off the aisle seven stars for him and Kelly's Velo is also down since he came off the aisle But he's looked really good three point five five a skill interactive. Yeah, Ray 28.6% strikeout rate in that time if we look at the one star for Kelly against the Dodgers in the span Which is back on August 9th So about three weeks ago a big enough buffer where there's not a ton of familiarity here We saw Kelly throw a six shutout innings now Just two strikeouts in that game compared to two walks. So was not lights out by any means, but He pitched pretty well I've got Arizona's win-outs this game above 40% and their implied odds of plus 176 are a 36.2% So I feel like we're a bit too low on Arizona in this game So I do want to take their money line of plus 176 to win here taking on the Dodgers So the two money lines I like for tonight are going to be the Red Sox Minus 120 in the Diamondbacks of plus 176 before we talk about the firm strikeout props I like for tonight do and talk quickly about Meryl Kelly in this Dodgers game because fandals markets are Different than what you'll see elsewhere if you go elsewhere You can get Kelly over five and a half strikeouts in alternate markets at around plus 140 At least you could earlier on today currently a fandal his strikeout prop over five and a half is plus 118 So fandal is higher than the market on Meryl Kelly with regards to his strikeout prop I think there's interest there for me personally looking at Kelly. I haven't projected above this number So I do have interest in the over but I kind of want to see whether the market goes towards fandal where We see the the over five and a half Start to shorten elsewhere while fandals days around the same or do we get a better number at fandal later on today? Again, it's five and a half plus 118 So if you open up your fandals sportsbook app I've listened to this and you see that Over five and a half whether be the base market or the alt market at six plus strikeouts And you see that at longer than plus 118 I'd be intrigued about taking that, you know See where it's stabilized wait for it to settle in but I think that that is a spot I'd want to go so I'm keeping tabs on the Meryl Kelly strikeouts market right now again It's five and a half Plus 118 a fandal right now But I check back on that later if it's pretty steady there And you see other books starting to correct towards fandal and get towards fandal on that number Then maybe you want to dive in at that point but for right now I think this is more of a wait-and-see market than it is one I want to dive in immediately Let's talk about the strikeout props I do like where they currently stand as of right now the first one is also in a west coast game That is Alex Cobb taking on the Cincinnati Reds now the Reds are a high strikeout team But I feel like the market here is a bit high on Cobb higher than I think it should be personally His strikeout prop right now fandal is five and a half with the under at minus 134 And I do like the under at that number now Cobb again high strikeout matchup at home But I think it's about the strikeout higher than where I put it Cobb is gone back to using his curve ball more across This past nine starts and in the time he has a 18.3 percent strikeout rate And he's had more than five and that strikeouts just twice now Both of those games where he did go over were at home and he's made just four total total home starts So he's gone over it in two out of four home starts But when he faced the Reds on the road in Cincinnati just after the all-star break Cobb had zero strikeouts across four and a third innings so Even against high strikeout teams. He can't have somewhat of a dud Performance. It's not a huge strikeout pitcher generally and I need a bit more To being treated by this number even if he is at home against a higher strikeout team So Cobb under five and that strikeouts minus 134 I think that's our way to go I mentioned that he's been using his curve ball more He's using that more at the expense of his slider a pitch that he has been tinkering with throughout this year Usage has been up and down up and down and more recently it's been down I feel like that does make Cobb bit of a lower strikeout guys So I think that based in the pitch mix based on the results I do think that under five and a half is a way to go Cobb projected for me 4.74 strikeouts for tonight Elsewhere for strikeout props. I'm gonna turn to the Rangers and the Mets for tonight where we find Andrew Heaney on the road taking on of the Mets and I think I've been under I've been on Heaney's under a lot recently. I could actually just search that right now if I wanted to But I feel like for the most part we're still seeing Heaney Get a lot of respect for being a high strikeout guy in the market But he hasn't really been that pitcher as much this year, especially recently he has been going back to throwing a slider a lot and that does In theory make him a higher strikeout guy because sliders tend to be higher strikeout pitches But that hasn't really happened. He's been using more sliders across his past 15 starts in those 15 starts His strikeout rate is 23.9 percent a pretty modest number so that's kind of weird and He has still had issues with hard contact He's letting up a a lot of hard contact a lot of fly balls that can get him in trouble He's a 4.41 skill interactive era and a 4.81 era And that leads to increased risk that he could let up a lot of runs and get chased from this game early So that does factor into a strikeout prop as well Heaney has taught 5 and S strikeouts just three times in this 15 start sample and I've got him projected for 4.76 tonight So well below this number it has moved Heaney under 5 and S strikeouts is now minus 118 So it's moving to bit There is some interest in the under on Heaney right here, but I do still think that the under is on the right way to go I mentioned I thought I had been on Heaney's under quite a bit recently in total been on Heaney's under strikeout prop Seven times so far this year it's hit five times. So that doesn't really matter That's relevant because it's been at different numbers by an under four and a half of one point. So But it's been successful. So I do feel like books are having a hard time catching up to the fact that Heaney is not as High of a strikeout guy as he was Last year earlier on this year and they're still setting his number a bit too high So at five and a half minus 118 on the under I do still think that there's value in going against Heaney for tonight The final strikeout prop I've got here is actually an over first over we've had across the Past couple of shows for this week. That isn't the White Sox in the Orioles game I like Jesse Shultons over five three and a half strikeouts at minus 112 now You're interested in that market will depend on how much faith you put into what Shultons has done as a starter so far this year because when he was a reliever Pretty low strikeout guy, but as a starter. He's actually been doing pretty well now that's weird because he's a 29 year old guy not super young not figuring something out there in that regard and You never expect guys to get more strikeouts as a starter than they did as a reliever It was from a strikeout rate perspective But Shultons has and I do think it's intriguing that he does back that up from what he did in triple a made nine stars down there His strikeout rate was 23% with a 12.6% swinging strike rate So he got strikeouts in triple a as a starter He's getting them so far in the majors and he's getting a pretty long leash He has had 90 plus pitches and three of his past four stars So I don't know why Shultons is getting more strikeouts right now I just know that that he is and three and a half to me says they're pretty skeptical just fair He's facing Baltimore's offense a very good offense not a high strikeout offense 22.2% strike area for them against righties on the current active roster this year. So It's not as if the situation is great It's actually kind of bad honestly given that I like Baltimore quite a bit, but I just think that Shultons is Probably do a bit more respect than what this number is getting him So I will go over three and a half on Shultons at minus 112 The three strikeout props I like right now for tonight Andrew Heaney under five and a half minus 118 Jesse Shultons over three and a half at minus 112 and Alex Cobb under five and a half Minus 134 all those numbers available right now over at FanDuel Sportsbook As mentioned though, we got to go through our Dinger Tuesday pick for this blessed Tuesday over at FanDuel Sportsbook Which will bring us right back that Astros and Red Sox game It's in the JP France is starting for the Astros and the odd thing about JP France is that despite the fact he is a rightie He can get clobbered by righties He lets up a lot more fly balls to righties and lefties the fly ball right a lot or the ground ball rate for France against righties is 33.3% versus 56.1% Against lefties that's allowed righties to have a 471 slugging percentage against him Now tonight he's facing the Red Sox think about the Red Sox you think about a lot of good left-handed batters Raphael Devers Tristan Kossas guys like that the one righty you could like overall is Adam Duvall But his home run odds are fan to a pretty short at three to one so instead I want to dip a bit lower We can find Justin Turner at five to one tonight over at FanDuel Sportsbook and Turner's not a guy You're typically to think of against righty, but again France doesn't really pitch like a righty because his Splits are so reverse what you would think and Turner has been showing a bit more juice recently His barrel rate in August is 9.8% which is still not high But it's better than it was his ISO in August is 266 He has five home runs and two of those have come across the past three games Now he's playing in Boston Which means as a righty he's doing with the green monster and that can be both a blessing and a curse It's a short porch which is good But because the wall is so high a lot of line drives will not be home runs But Turner's fly ball righty in August is 52.9% so much higher now than it was before So I think it's kind of a convergence of a lot of things It's Turner getting more fly balls recently getting more barrels playing in a spot where if you put the ball in the air you can't hit a dinger and Facing a guy who lets up a lot more fly balls to righties than he does to lefties So if I'm looking for a Dinger Tuesday bet over at FanDuel Sportsbook I'm gonna lean towards Justin Turner five to one to hit a home run for tonight It's a game with a total of ten runs So you're benefiting more from Dinger Tuesday in a high total game You get the benefit of those that five dollar bonus So I'm gonna go Justin Turner five to one as my Dinger Tuesday bed for today over at FanDuel Sportsbook That's gonna be all that we have here for today here on covering the spread as mentioned We are back once again tomorrow with Dr. Ed Feng Breaking down his paper bets for week one across college football We'll talk about the week's biggest games and get you ready for those with Ed's bets via the power If you got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow FanDuel research at FanDuel research want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck with your Dinger Tuesday bets another bets across majorly baseball We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel podcast network