 Welcome traders to this week's live trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen, if you type a Y in the chat box so that I know we are good to get started here. A Y in the chat box if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen please. Okay, so before we get started with this week's analysis, as always it's important that we adhere to the risk disclaimer. The views specifically expressed by me here today are so in mind they're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill Europe or Tick Mill UK Limited. For those that are here for the first time a brief introduction to myself. My name is Patrick Munley and after I graduated from Kings College London I joined the city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses having a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling after some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid gains, however, this is often the case my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed I began to average down into losing positions giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit. This was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understand I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a look from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years it was time during which I up. Not just my technical game in terms of researching developing and extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially sees my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game, and probably most importantly I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets, and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades, but once you become process oriented, and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you are simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the individual trades or even a string of trades my focus on the next hundred trades, because I know that if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended period of time and outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 from 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi million dollar portfolio. In 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders, developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management I'm also engaged in other market oriented projects I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TITMA, providing an in depth daily market outlook, breaking down the global drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two to three markets per day. I also run TITMA's rapidly growing E-mini strategy group where I provide daily a specific trade plan with intraday trade updates. And since it's inception I've delivered over 1070 points of upside. You can request free access to the TITMA strategy group I'll leave the link there in the chat for you all. Let me suggest you take that up if you're interested in trading the S&P 500 or the E-mini S&P or E-micro contracts. Okay, so let's jump into the charts. We're going to start this week with the dollar index. Obviously we have the FOMC out last night. And we got a slightly hawkish lean to the FOMC, giving indication that tapering is on the table now firmly on the table. And as is often the case once the market delivers that anticipated outcome, it's a question of buy the rumour and sell the facts. So we've got a pop in the dollar last night but we're seeing some supply come in here today. I'll be looking for any pullbacks now into the projected ascending trend lines for weekly range support at the 9260 area, watching for bullish reversal patterns there as we eventually target this long awaited 9390 upside objective here. And from there, I'll be keely watching for bearish reversal patterns as we potentially put in a major wave 4 high there. And then we could be looking at the next leg of downside in terms of the dollar index as the, as was the case with the prior tapering that we've seen. We saw that initial part that then ultimately we saw the dollar sell off. So I'm watching for this grind higher into this supply zone, which are bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. Now obviously that dollar view feeds directly into the euro dollar, which basically trades almost as an inverse to dollar index. And so what we're looking for with the euro dollar now is to find some support here at the monthly range support at the 11716 we're seeing some decent demand come into the market today. I've been looking for a pop higher now into the weekly range resistance just ahead of 118. And then from there we'll see if sellers step back in to take this down to the big equality objective that we have been tracking here. I'll just draw that in for you to see exactly what I'm talking about. So we have this a leg or B leg high and then we're looking for a C leg to complete into this 11630. And then from there we can see a more meaningful upside move in in the euro, where we can think about challenging that 120 again on the upside and then from there we can have a potential meaningful low in place. And we can be thinking about a new leg of upside in the in the euro dollar. So those are two major effects updates there let's just now work through these charts, start with the S&P 500. Obviously we've seen a bit of a sell off in terms of the S&P. So I'm watching now this trend line resistance which comes in here at the, let's see, 4460 area, and then I'm looking for ideally another leg of downside. And as always what we're looking for is that equality objective so if we find some supply here into that trend line, then we look for another leg of downside to complete them. So we have a major wave for low, and then we will be targeting a wave five move to the outside so ideally what we get is a, is an opportunity to see weakness now into October. And then we should see that that's set up for what's often referred to as the Santa Cruz rally etc but ultimately what we'll be looking for them will be a nice pop into year end. And then we will be looking at the area managers, window dress and, and take advantage of the natural lift that we often see into November December and January so paying close attention to how we trade into this trend line resistance, various reversal patterns there, another opportunity on the short side but ultimately we will be looking for a way for low to develop and then we will be looking to get in on the long side. So in the story in the NASDAQ, we have this trend line resistance of a pivot cluster here we tested it just today from from below, and we seem to be finding a little bit of supply coming in here. So what we're looking for now let's remove that bring in this here. So we have correction into the trend line in this pivot cluster and then we'll be looking for that. See wave extension. Let's just get a good measure on it there. So quality objective. So as we hold resistance in and around this 15,250 up to 15,400 they're watching for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. And we'll be looking for a retest here of support down to 14,475 and then a similar story obviously to with the S&P we'll be looking for that wave fall over to be in place, and ultimately then an extension to the upside into a year end is the is the game plan there similar setup in the Dow here obviously looking for another leg of downsides preferred to trade the S&P myself DAX coming up into its trend line resistance let's just draw that in. DAX is a little bit stronger than the other markets at the moment has been a bit of a bit into European equities but ultimately we look for this trend line to hold and another leg of downside to to set up and then we've been looking on the long side in terms of the DAX. So somewhere around this 14,550 area to complete this move let's make sure we've got the quality right there. So if this is going to be an equal legs, we weren't actually see it as low so let's just update this. And see we've got this support zone here let's draw that in so we've got it. So ultimately what we're going to be looking for is a test here on this support zone in the DAX. So that gives us 14,700 just above 14,700 and then from there we'll be looking for that fifth wave extension to the upside into into the year ends. So it's going to be key how we trade here at this 15,760 because we could this this correction technically could be complete here. And the first tail for that will be a move that takes out the trend line and the close above 15,800. If we see that then technically we could have our way for low in place and we could see some European outperformance in terms of the equity indexes but for now we're going to pay close attention to how we respond at this trend line and that monthly pivot there 15,790 to see if we get another leg to the downside for extending higher into year ends. Nikkei obviously been a bit of an outperformer but should pay attention here potential meaningful double top in place. The only thing that leads me to believe we probably aren't going to see a double top is the fact that we didn't get any meaningful divergence in terms of our momentum studies and we broke out to the upside there you can see that higher high in terms of momentum study and that's the first piece of market intelligence you want to take away there and thinking, have we seen that a double top in place it's what we prefer to see would be really off the charts divergent something like this, if this if this pattern had occurred over there then that would be more of an indication potentially have a high in place so for now, what I'd be expecting is a three wave corrected move back into this 28,850 zone, and then we should extend higher once again in terms of the Nikkei equity indexes so the story is that obviously we're in correction territory at the moment, we potentially have another leg of downside to play out. The DAX really want to keep a close eye on because that's the one that could lead us will be the canary in the coal mine in terms of suggesting that the correction is actually complete, but for now it's paying attention to how price responds at these trend line resistance tests, because we should set up the next leg of downside in these markets before setting up that year end rally. We've covered the dollar index, let's take a look at gold. Gold has held the support zone that we looked at last week quite nicely. So we now look for gold to extend up into this trend line resistance. So where's the opportunity in terms of the long side here? Well, we'd want to see this trend line get taken out now so let's draw this in here. Gold can get up through weekly range resistance and the trend line 1790, 1795, a close in that zone would set up a move to test this 1850 and that's going to be a key test for the market because if we hold there and bearish reversal patterns develop, then we have a downside objective at 1520, which is this big quality move versus this swing structure here. It's a big ABC corrective move. However, if we did get a close through the 1850, again, that will be the first sign that maybe this correction is complete now in gold and then we can start thinking about new upside targets. Silver traded into our target zone. We've found some demand coming to the market here. Could now if we can get the key for silver really is going to be breaking this trend channel that it's currently in. So it's got a bit of work to do. I mean, I wouldn't be looking on the long side until we're back through $24, $2415 on silver. And if we can get through there, then we set up a test or a potential test of range resistance back up to $29. But nothing immediate to do with silver crude oil has retested this trend line from above potential now that we do a double here. So an ABC correction that would bring us back into this pivotal 6870. And once we get in there, I'd be watching for bullish reversal patterns because we have a nice bullish sequence here 12 is 34 subdivided nicely into an ABC equality. And now looking for any pullbacks to hold the 68 $69 level bullish reversal patterns there an opportunity on the long side to trade for this 80 $81 fifth wave upside objective that we've been tracking there and include oil. So that's one that's certainly on the radar copper held the trend line resistance as we anticipated we now have a three wave corrective move developing. Once we hold resistance here at the 427 63 zone. What we're looking for is another leg of downside to get into this equality objective at the 385 50 bullish reversal patterns there will be an opportunity on the long side and copper. Ideally what we'd be looking for that copper load to kind of coincide with these equity markets pulling back from copper is an indication of buoyant markets and an economic expansion so we'll see if copper gets in here and we get the hold. And that again was looking for that to sync up with the opportunity in terms of these equity markets and risk appetite in general Bitcoin pull back into our support zone that we looked at last week. Again with Bitcoin here the opportunity now will be on the long side. Once we get a break at this trend line resistance. And if that plays out then as we discussed last week, we look for moves through the 53,000 up into prior high 65,000. And then ultimately we're looking for this major upside objective at the 76,000 level. And again, Bitcoin and some of these. These stable coins are starting to trade kind of as risk barometers themselves so we've seen the pullback in Bitcoin the pullback in equity markets still think we've got another leg to go in terms of the equity markets. And that's the case what we'd be looking for with Bitcoin here is if we can't break this trend line resistance. So let me just draw this in for you now, you'll see what I'm thinking about. If we get up in here and we fail to take out this trend line resistance, then that sets up the move another leg to the downside to ultimately test this major trend line support, which comes in at the 34,000 level. And that would still as long as if we hold that and this is bullish thesis to the upside into that 76, still in play very much in play, but that that corrected leg lower will coincide with the equity markets obviously taking another, another leg lower before we get that that advance ether similar story as traded into the sports and found some nice demand there from the pitchfork projection that we had last week. So again with this if we're looking to get in on the long side, we want some confirmation first and what we'd like to see would be a break of trend line resistance here, because there is always the chance that we do a double correction in terms of in terms of ether, and that would have another leg to the downside so we want to see this trend line taken out 3398 34 level, and then we can start to think about new upside objectives. And dollar you want this is a trade I had on last week and got some took some nice profits in this plus 230. What we're looking for now is another pullback here test and support zone again before we try to get a test of the trend of projected trend line resistance so watching for the pullback. If the dollar index falls fails its support so then this could set up a another leg lower in the dollar you want but for now, we'll watch to see how we trade back at support for another leg to the upside. So the dollar yen had this one on last week long. I got 50 or 60 tips to the upside, but now what we look for is a break of trend line resistance let's draw this in here as confirmation that we could see another leg higher in terms of the dollar yen. We're going to close back through one 1015 that was set up to my mind anyway opportunities on the intraday charts to look for long positions ultimately looking for a target up into the one to the projected ascending trend line resistance somewhere $50 in terms of dollar yen. So we see pulling backs test trend line, the broken trend line resistance and support, no clear trading opportunity for me there at the moment in terms of the seriously similar story in the cab. The dollar I had this one on as well to 70 tips out of this. We're seeing a pullback now. So the story here with the Singapore dollar is we could get back down into this trend line support and see if buyers step in there again and then we could be thinking about a move into this trend line resistance, the alternative scenario one that can always play out is that we get a double correction now. We could be thinking something like this back into the range support zone down here before trying to try to mount another leg to the upside. So pay close attention to how we trade back at this projected pitchfork support zone could be another opportunity to reengage dollars, a single dollar on the long side, you're testing its support here as we've actually already covered the euro chart. This one has held the support zone double bottom this was a chart I posted on the chart it played out quite nicely so what we're watching for now with your yen is game thinking in terms of confirmations that we have a meaningful low in place, what we'll want to see is a close back through this pivot cluster and weekly range resistance so 12930 12950 can get a close through there. Then we can start to think about long positions in terms of the Euro yen and the immediate resistance comes in range resistance monthly projected range resistance at 13770 but we need to get to see a close back through 12950 to look at that intraday euro sterling still looking for that last push to the downside here before we can have that meaningful low in place. Back into the trend back into trend line resistance zone here. The euro sterling what you look for is a break of this trend line support to suggest that we have that high in place to extend them for our fifth wave low down into this 80 360 zone. I'll be looking short positions in the euro so now on a close as long as we close read today in terms of the candle my volume wasted average price running on these charts of the candle colors are slightly different to normal candles but we get a close out or below current levels then I see an opportunity on the short side euro was a to play for test of this 159 58 area and then I'll be paying close attention to see if we can get bullish reversal patterns as an opportunity to re engage them on the long side. Nothing in the euro key we might have an opportunity here as well we've traded back into this prior trend line support and seeing some decent selling coming in here, we have potential bear, bear flag scenario so if we can get a close through. Let's just throw this in. So here's our bear flag. You can get a close back through these lows here or break of these lows, and I think that sets up an immediate test. Let's try that in. So this is our flag here. This is a three way move there so it sets up an immediate test then of support back down to 163 monthly range support 162 70. So look for a break of that trend line support their 165 50 for that decent 200 pit move down there to test that pivotal support so keep an eye on that one. Let's start up as potential opportunity sterling seeing a nice bounce today from its support zone here so again can we take out the trend line looks like we might be able to if so then we look for a move back into this 137 70 key decision point again for sterling as we could then get another leg lower to test this weekly a monthly range support zone sterling yen has a nice bounce from the big trend line support here so there could be an opportunity developing on the long side in sterling yen. If we can get back up through this pivot cluster take out the trend line resistance above us and then we'd have a triangle completing here and we could be thinking about extending back up to retest price cycle high so sterling yen is certainly one that's on the board at the moment. I also like sterling your Aussie is looking for a close through we haven't haven't got that move through the 80 187 handle as an opportunity to see another leg to the downside, keeping an eye on the sterling Aussie but further playing the sterling yen really or even sterling at this point. I see seeing a decent bounce attempt here so you can see I've drawn this in basically as a trend line, so we're using this. So if we can get a close through the 73 handle in the Aussie, then I'm looking for a move up to test 74. And then we can develop a potential inverse head and shoulders and I but Keith see from get that close through the 73 we're sitting on momentum support down here the trend channel. Very close tensions the Aussie like that potentially on the long side was again similar story breaking or making an attempt here to break its trend line resistance let me just draw that in for you. So there's the trend line, so if we get a close through this weekly pivot here. 8024 I'm been looking them for a test of the 80 to 40 trend line resistance zone in terms of the Aussie. So another one I like was traded right into that support zone now so I'm watching this Aussie cat closely on closes here daily closes, so if we can get a close now back through these prior highs here 90 to 50 and that sets up a great opportunity to play for this equality objective up into the 9480 level so that's one that is on the radar. The next couple of evenings at the close Aussie Kiwi still tracking this one as well, looking for a break of the close through this trend line resistance to get in on the long side bunch of confidence there, and that could give us a nice ride up into test. This trend line resistance here coming in at 106 handle to pay close attention to that Aussie Kiwi Kiwi dollar, this is an opportunity on the wrong side into the close tonight. If we close at or above current levels are the looking to get long and I'll be targeting the quality objective back into range resistance there 7320 last but not least let's take a look at cad yen cad yen I'm looking for a break of this descending trend line resistance. Coming in now let's see if we can get a close through 8720, then we could have a way for low in place and start to think about way five minimum upside objective there of the 93 handle. So that's, those are the charts that I'm tracking at the moment, looking ultimately for another potential leg of downside in the equity markets to play into an ideal October October low, and that should feed then into risk assets and the double view etc so lots of developing here as we head into the back end of the month and and we'll see what what shakes up, so if you have any questions or there's a child you'd like me to take a look at that I haven't covered type that into the chat box and I'll cover those off equally if you don't have any questions, please type an end in the chat box so that I know we're all on the same page, and ready to wrap this up, and I strongly suggest all of you take advantage of the opportunity to join me in the Tick Mill. Yes, and P chart. Chris German. So the DAX on the 30 minute charts, the lowest I go to Chris is the hourly chart. Let's pull up the DAX and see what's what so this, this moves looking impulsive at the moment. Like I said, let's see if I can get this data. So what I'd be paying attention to here is this trend line. So as I kind of said on the daily chart this, you know this move at the moment has impulsive qualities, what one of the key that one of the key things I look for is the when we look at these impulsive advances what I would like to see is that we just take out this these prior highs here this 1579. So if we do something like this Chris. Here we go. So let's say we pull back here, maybe we do a double. We don't see so, but I do like to see will be we just clip those prior highs there and let me actually let's measure this from. So if we can just take out these prior highs then what I would look for would be this type of scenario. So let's move then let's see a bigger correction into that's here. And then that would be to my mind anyone to my mind, the way I trade these markets that would be the opportunity then to get in on the long side. So this looks impulsive but it hasn't quite done enough for me at this stage anyway to warrant buying a pullback yet really want to see these prior peaks just taken out even just by a tip there to to look then for an opportunity for a three wave potential inverse head and shoulders scenario here as as an opportunity on the long side. Does that make sense Chris. I don't know what an s 90 crossover is no problem at all Chris very welcome. Okay, any other questions. Okay, I am. I'm going to take that as a no and so I'll wrap this session up here. Please feel free to join me in the tick mill futures group and if not, I will. I'll see you all next week same time same place. Thanks very much and have this house.