 Okay, very good morning Tuesday 9th of July. I hope everyone is doing well a quick look First of all over the charts and a summary of what I'm going to cover Pound a little heavy this morning So a couple things to update you on on that regard and this time more of an economic focus than so much a political one But coming close to testing some interesting levels in close proximity to the downside Elsewhere other news stories in regard to the ECB a couple of bank comments in regards to what to expect going forward on the prospect of the ECB Re-initiating QE which timing I guess and to what size is going to be quite a key thing to ascertain And then we've got some news on the the China US trade war new arms sale from the US to Taiwan that which is Not a market moving headline on its own But certainly would be interesting in regard to the recommencing of trade negotiations between those two countries And then we'll have a look at the calendar and what to expect for the for the day ahead so starting off as you can see got the charts up in front of me and rather than the actual Individual news stories I would say it's very much on the sentiment basis a continuation of what we've had from yesterday So equity still a little heavy Just looking at the DAX this morning. It's already tested as s2 one thing to note is that despite Deutsche Bank shares Rallying at the open yesterday. I think they did finish down about five percent. They're down about two percent last time I looked at the open this morning. So, you know irrespective of very aggressive restructuring kind of cost savings trying to kind of if you like clip off the bad part of the bank in order to press the Reset button focus on more, you know core performing assets or parts of the business the markets Hasn't really bought into that story and that reversed So that's just one thing to be aware of but looking at the S&P 500 here and obviously from a technical point of view There definitely isn't and Sam will go over this in more detail some key areas to look out for but I think technically the S&P's Setting up with some quite clear points of support and resistance going forward. This was obviously the The wake and the volatility of non-farm payrolls on Friday We had the initial sell-off of course after the headline the kind of extreme nature of the beat on the number of jobs Created on the change in non-farm payrolls But the overall recovery into the Wall Street clothes, you know once the kind of dust settled and the idea of okay 50 basis points maybe removed off the table But the Fed definitely is still going to act at the end of the year and most likely multiple times for 2019 but there's no detracting from the point of the global economy is Deteriorating at this point and whether that's in machine tool orders in Japan yesterday whether that's in global PMIs You know across different nations at the moment The net result is is that at the moment economically things are slowing down from pretty much each continent And so equities just drifting a little lower the other thing I think also that not a lot of people are kind of talking about at this point in time But I do feel as well. This is a little bit of almost Pre-positioning if you like ahead of corporate earnings season, which does start to kind of kick off in the next week or two and Obviously corporate profitability. I think not so much just now, but more importantly looking forward their forward guidance I think the bars got to be you know reset a little lower just given this economic You know pessimism going forward I think it's going to be a struggle for earnings reports really to outperform And so we've already seen that yesterday remember we're talking about Morgan Stanley at the weekend issuing a note Talking about how they're the least exposed to equities in several years And I kind of agree with that So I think a lot of this is we've hit that all-time high, of course. We got up just above three thousand Last week, so I think maybe just a bit coming off the table on the back of that But looking at this technically you can see the range that we're trading now We had a brief test very early At the entrance in European morning, which was the actual payroll low, which was 71 and a half in the S&P 500 You've then got the the overnight low. We can see technically we broke that fairly obviously Liquid conditions overnight comparative to the normal daily session in the UK Europe in the US Of course, so we shot lower and so that now is the the kind of price range of this morning to keep an arm before the US come in 64 and a half on the downside to then the S1 turn resistance level now and above there 71 and a half any break of these levels though looking towards the US session today Then certainly S2 Would be an area of support and another target on the downside So 59 to kind of 61 that of course starts to bring in the low point that we had on the second of June And then beyond that point you've got that area where you had the close of D The session what two weeks ago the initial pullback on the the gap up on the G20 the pullback before then the eventual push higher So that level as well Down here around 55. I think it's going to be quite a key level. So Yeah, I don't think it would be too unusual for the S&P to kind of drift down if we did break that range I don't think at this point until power speaks. I think that the bottom end of that at 54 and three quarters I think around 55 would hold would be my my guess Because a lot of focus of course will be on drone power and just to be clear power is speaking today But he's talking about stress tests Highly unlikely. I feel that he's going to say anything of significance I actually think that he'll he'll very much just be very specific on his topic because he'll want to Not share any real Information ahead of the the testimony to the house financial services committee tomorrow, which is going to be the most the most important speech You'll give this week So yeah equities again a little soft No one headline is really a just the kind of state of play I think global sentiment is tilted slightly to a negative sense on the global picture from the moment So on that regard oil is a little lower Albeit fairly sideways overnight, but down 23 cents The only thing that's not really I guess playing to that same tune of that negative sentiment is that gold and T-notes are both marginally lower The Dixie though is up one tenth might explain maybe a little bit of the weight in the gold move But currencies is the one I really I want to focus on first to go through the news headlines Because cable I was just looking at and you know looking at cable just to explain the the price movement of late That was non-farm payrolls. So obviously we saw a big Jolt higher in the in the pound on the back of the the headline response and by his by-product main cable just popping lower and Overnight breaching the support point which really held up the price action from yesterday So as Europe came in snapped through that level in the respective s1 on the pivots Targeting down then the s2 which of course was also The low point that we had from the post a payroll Initial aftermath if you like so bit of support found around those areas I'd say that will be the near-term target at the moment I think what's helped the initiation of the break this morning though has been some of the headlines but technically Obviously getting to a very interesting area for the pound because that initial low that we printed Remember back on the 10th 11th of December. I think that was when Theresa May Survived a vote the first vote of no confidence in her leadership Which she survived but that was when the pound hit its lowest point I think that was the 11th of December if I remember rightly and in the futures market We're only about 50 pips away from that point and you can see if we were to breach that downside level Well, I guess down here. I'd probably be looking at that 10th of 7th of April low 2378 but obviously this starts to open up the trapdoor a little bit in terms of Price areas of kind of technical relevance to the downside So, you know, why is the pound a little weak? Well, first of all before I jump to this headline I think you've got to look at the UK economic state at the moment now Obviously, we know the political risks surrounding no deal Of course Increasing because it's more likely than not that Boris Johnson will become prime minister It's more of a formality over the coming weeks week of the 22nd of July It's when we were looking out for the the kind of results from the Tory contest They are having a live debate tonight on the ITV. I think it is so if you wanted to watch that but economically is what I want to focus on because if you remember last week we had the series of UK PMIs and Manufacturing and construction are in contraction Services is, you know, fairly tame at this point pretty much in stagnation Now you've got UK shops suffering their slowest growth on record in the 12 months to June This came out overnight from the BRC It was the slowest increase since records began in 1995 Retailers also had their biggest annual fall for June on record down 1.3 percent. Obviously, Brexit concerns mounting But however on a year-on-year comparison, I would say you should take that with a pinch of salt Remember what was happening this time last year? we're in the midst of a heat wave and England football team were in the semi-final so as a year-on-year comparison, obviously last year retail sales were way higher for those those Seasonal factors of weather and the almost Unbelievable factor that England made it to the semi-finals. It's probably more surprising But the point being that I think a year-on-year comparison is unwarranted I think that's a bit sensationalist But not detracting from the point that average sales growth over the 12 months to June is the weakest since 1995 a thing is quite a telling point of the state of things at the moment so weak PMIs weak performance by Spending from consumers and this is all coming with UK GDP due tomorrow Where the UK economy probably shrank for the first time in seven years? Now just have a look what this is like So economists are predicting for tomorrow's Second-quarter first look at the monthly GDP figures. They are anticipating a contraction of point one And as you can see from that little let's call it orange downturn here that be the first negative growth in the UK since going all the way back to the end of 2012 so definitely Although you know Brexit and its weight on the economy has been a real slow burner This idea I think of just kicking the can down the road as we have done from March to October certainly does have consequences on you know foreign investment on company's appetite because of the increasing uncertainty about the actual dates and Outcomes of this political situation and so this is really reality hitting home in my mind of what Brexit really means for the UK economy And this is not even Yet overlaying the risks increasing of a no deal of course under Boris Johnson So I definitely think the pound this week does need to be watched very closely I think the one saving grace that the pound might receive here is that if Jerome Powell comes out tomorrow and Says you know what actually You know we shouldn't really look too much at that one-off jobs number The US other data is really something we're monitoring quite closely Then with that being said if if that 50 basis point idea comes back on the table and the dollar starts Rewekening reversing some of the strength that was seen on Friday Then well we got a we got to keep a real sharp eye on that that level of the December low in cable because that breaks You know I don't see much in a way of stopping that from you know quickly falling another point Over the following day or two on the back of that breach of such a significant support area So yeah, definitely the pound one to watch going forward Couple things that I did share this morning Was an excellent research note from ING where they give a monthly summary of the current outlook for every major Central bank including the PBOC the BOJ the ECB the Bank of England and everyone in between So definitely if you get I'd say 15 minutes spare today. It's definitely worth a read for UK what they did do which is very useful is a kind of crib sheet of latest Brexit scenarios and as I've always tried to stress to you guys when you're trying to Kind of fathom. What is the markets? You know base case. What is this herd mentality? It's not the ING are right and that their percentages are accurate But they're a fair reflection of what them and then I would look at other banks are thinking about the likelihood of the outcome for Brexit What's great about ING is that you know, they put their neck on the line They put the percentage probability, which is very helpful for ascertaining that hierarchy of at this point They actually think parliament forcing a new general election is the highest probability followed by then a potential revamped deal of I'm assuming to ease a maze withdrawal bill that failed what three times Good thing about this as well as you get an associated market reaction So in summary a second referendum would be the most they foresee as being Pound-friendly, but that would mean an article 50 extension of at least six months Remember our briefings from several months ago Technically from a legislation point of view for a new referendum to happen There's a lot of different things that need to occur Where the Electoral Commission needs to get involved other parties need to then campaign over a period The public then needs to be educated about it and and overall it's a very long timeline to deliver a second referendum Hence the reason why that's much longer, but long story being short I would definitely again be reading these types of things to give me a better idea as to You know cement your thinking about the potential outcomes and reactions in the market now the idea of a second referendum Could gain traction or more traction Not because we kind of know the state of what the Greens the Lib Dems want the idea is well Will Labour ever commit to a second referendum because if they did that could create quite a meaningful shift In regards to the prospects of a second referendum becoming a reality and one thing here is Labour's trade unions Yesterday according to leaked documents The British trade union leaders linked to the opposition Labour Party have agreed to back a second referendum on any Brexit deal Reached by the Tories or a no-deal exit, which I think could be quite a substantial thing that could At last force Corbyn's hand to commit to something rather than trying to appease both sides of the argument And I think that would be the most compelling case to run against a more hard Brexit lines Boris Johnson led conservative party So definitely one to watch If that was going to be the case Definitely could be interesting on the prospects obviously a second referendum Typically as seen by markets as being more pound friendly in terms of what that could then eventually lead to of course Quick look at some other things ECB this is much more bigger broader picture So I won't dwell on it too much, but a lot of talk a recent economist survey last week indicated that Most banks believe the ECB will cut interest rates by 10 basis points the deposit rate from minus point four to point five percent In September of this year given the current economic State of the eurozone and the forward-looking soft indicators looking for further deterioration and so here what they're also anticipating remember monetary policy is now kind of Multiple tools that can be deployed interest rates is one But when rates are already negative and what could be 0.5% then the obvious choice is then restarting quantitative easing Now to give you an idea Latest commentary here is Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are predicting the ECB are going to restart QE So let me just show you this. This was the ECB's bond buying program of recent years, which of course Stopped at the beginning of 2019 as they unwound the active nature of purchasing of bonds month to month Now they did this in a very graduated fashion from 80 billion at its peak To then 60 to then 30 to then 15 before then, you know turning off the active nature of buying of bonds now talk is To give you an overview Goldman Sachs They're anticipating monthly purchases of 30 billion euros for a period of nine months to be initiated later on this year Morgan Stanley looking at 45 billion euros a month as early as Q4 with an announcement in September September to kind of front run the actual initiation of QE and BNP Parabas the French Bank Suggesting ECB one out study five to 40 billion euros monthly pay to purchases in December for six to nine months So point being here as a growing chorus that QE in the eurozone is going to restart The general concessions seems to be towards Q3 for signaling Q4 for activation In in that sense. So definitely these are things when ECB speakers are talking. I'd be I'd be I'd be looking for One thing to be aware of of course for those a little bit more clued up on the ECB The whole point here with the QE program is that under the current Restrictions or parameters that define the purchase program with the ECB The ECB cannot buy bonds forever because that would be in breach then of the idea that they're basically Financing governments, so there's certain parameters and thresholds that need to be adhered to as well as capital key Waitings to each country in the number of bonds it can buy Hence the reason why these banks are talking about an area of 30 40 billion and not You know pumping it right back up to 60 80 billion because ultimately they could probably only do that for a couple of months They will hit these these barrier limits if you like Not unless they were to reshape the entire kind of deal in that sense of how QE is conducted So yeah a couple things to think about last few headlines As I briefly mentioned at the beginning the US State Department has approved possible 2.2 billion dollar arms sale to Taiwan Those who know their Chinese politics will know that you know Taiwan is a particularly contentious issue for the idea of the one China policy of which Taiwan wants its sovereignty But China sees Taiwan as Chinese territory and so therefore should be governed by the main state in Beijing So the fact that the US are gonna sell Taiwan over two billion dollars worth of arms equipment is Only going to you know stir the horn its nest if you like a poking China in the wrong way When you're trying to deal with them over in negotiation on a bigger level trade talks at the moment, so those talks are Recommencing I believe even today or this week And so you know definitely you'll be interested to see what China's responses to this because they they definitely won't be pleased by This latest development Okay, quick look at the calendar. What have we got today a? A reminder here that the market this morning is moving very much on just general Sentiment rather than a specific one headline For this week the biggest event is Jerome Powell speaking tomorrow afternoon So much like I would say the build-up in anticipation to a big data release Kind of like in a micro sense to build up to non-farm payrolls the market waits then it sees big movement after That's going to be key tomorrow So could be a likelihood that definitely there's some key technical downside support points across different assets That you need to keep an eye on that could lead to a further continuation of this this trend that we've been seeing lower equities Maybe a flight to quality in terms of into the dollar and weighing on the major currency pairs and so on but If given the magnitude of tomorrow today could well start to to die down a little bit is what I'm saying So yeah if within without the the technical breaches We could get a fairly range of session Because of how important that speech is tomorrow and again the reason why is because we're looking for confirmation Of what is the Fed stance given the fact that we seem to be heading towards potentially a more aggressive 50 basis point cut potentially but that got wiped off the table by non-farms is The market right to remove that option and hopefully we'll get clarity not only from Powell If you remember there's five other Fed speakers also talking on Thursday Which is part of the classic kind of contingency planning just in case the market misinterprets What Powell says on Wednesday in his first testimony so today this morning is very quiet There really is nothing on the docket not until this afternoon where again, there's no major 130s coming out of the States NFB's business optimism index is not really a classic market mover Nor is jolts although it has been a typical Or a previous favored number that the Fed would look at but not so much these days I would say and then the API Infantries of course done until later on this evening So the one thing I would keep an eye on is Fed speakers Let me blow this up a little bit. You can see you've got feds Powell 145 bullard at 10 past 3 Bostick and Qualed for later on this evening. What I would say here is Powell even though he's important. I would find it highly Surprising if he says anything before the key testimony tomorrow So I'd very much although I would keep an eye and ear out for Powell at 145 I'm almost entirely sure he will stick Specifically to the subject of stress testing which he's talking about today rather than anything about the economy and monetary policy Okay, that's it from me. Let me hand you over to mr. North and I'll wish you a good day. Thanks very much Morning guys. We've all had a good morning so far Start off with the with the Dax as and mentioned this morning push it down to the S2 we've had a bit of a snap back come back to What was the previous high of the Asian session yesterday's low as well that offered a good resistance point? To offer an opportunity for the sellers to get back in again There's also a key level that we had back from Tuesday last week that gap feel we're still gonna be I'd up by people in the future. Let me just bring that in to the left-hand side of the Right-hand side of the the cameras are keeping an eye on that and And he break through there could see you know further push lower. However, that is obviously quite low down has to be said So yeah keeping a close watch on the proceedings Are you know as we're now half hour into into that open having a look into the currencies and with the pound under pressure this morning? Where could it go to obviously the the key support being tested now from last week's low To the upside if we can get a retracement Be iron up the low that we had from yesterday, which is around the S1 So a nice area where you've got your two resistance points I'll just be a bit careful of how it gets to there because you can see really the move started earlier this morning So around the the lower points around here in this zone from we call that 125 46 So if you were to get in around the S1 area, you might just want to stagger the entry towards that price I know that might mean a bit too large a stop if that is the case maybe yesterday's low stop above This 46 level might be more appealing To get in if we get a retracement, of course, it's getting a bit choppy Around here you can see on the on the five-minute good first reaction to the yes to as you'd expect And we're sort of coming into this new range here So even if we were to get a push above you can see that might mean that the S1 which seems now a bit middle Nowhere when we lower the time frame down might be that more bit more preferable to look towards yesterday's low and also Around 46 where we had a decent Breakdown this morning euro Got the the comments the stories circling about new Round of QE has this kind of way on things where you can see this morning We're hitting that third bottom from Friday's low yesterday's low today's low I'll see with the S1 there you could for sure expect some support which has come in Quite a small quite a small range though. It has to be said and I think if you're looking for For the opportunity either a break of all of this to then come back and test it You know this for me would be something to look out later in the day something like that or if we can get a Decent trend line. Obviously, we've only got the two tests there Maybe the push higher at some point but even saying that you can see the pivot Along with some resistance points. Yes, they may well look to to come in and hold progress there So euro for me doesn't look too appealing at the moment If we were to get a decent rally higher to towards yesterday's high and the R1 There might might be a better opportunity, but at the moment small range, but you can see Once move things across just perhaps why we are slowing up a bit around this this area just below where we're trading you've got the the low from the 19th and the 18th just a few pips below that air Area as well. So euro is getting squeezed in from from both directions Maybe the opportunity comes later on in the afternoon Should we get a push higher or break all of that support as well? I'm look at the Aussie some decent opportunities in the Aussie as of late with these trend line breaks You can see yesterday that happening in the morning. You have the overnight trend break here as well Which has led to a further push down. It's offered quite good Opportunities a couple of times on the S1 retest. It's it's found resistance However now being quite low and some key support just a bit below where we're trading funds again move that above the camera you can see This whole zone going back to the highs that we had back on the morning of the 21st the low of the 25th Five tick range or zone where you could expect some decent support break below there And they'll see price could push to the downside further. However already below S2 Whether you would want to get too involved in that if that was to happen today Similar to the euro in that price just getting squeezed from the upside Following these these trends while they're not amazing You can see an opportunity could come on the break of that just being aware Of course of any of the previous lows that would offer a bit of resistance as well Opportunity wise if we were to push higher Certainly looking at a retest of 69 83 a no long way away, but potentially in the afternoon you can see this area hadn't necessarily been retested So I'll be looking to see a price can come back to there to of course find some resistance However, if we were to push on and this could be any market if we do get a really Clear break of this trend, of course now that resistance point you would want to leave alone So if we were to break this trend line with some speed, I would just remove orders and Effectively that trend line has changed a bit as well However, you can see retested the trends higher up could also offer some resistance So for now as he does seem like the opportunity should be to to get short unless these trend lines really do break Speaking of trend lines the yen is Similar to Aussie in that the opportunity came Yes, they follow in a break of that in the afternoon You could argue we again got a bit of a breakdown just down just recently all of these Working quite well. I know this would been early in the morning along with the previous highs of the day Lowes of yesterday as a good resistance point. We're just testing the low now So opportunity for resistance above where we're trading I'll be keeping a close eye on this point here as you can see what was the trend line break What was the area support around quarter past seven and quarter to eight? Around 92 37 and a half that would be somewhere. I'll be looking for some resistance if we were to push lower Where could we come to and of course the dollar now strengthening again against most of these pairs you can see Well, I guess it's got a bit of a room bit room to go really what could stop it is Equities if they were to push lower Understand me that first test of that load just holding up quite nicely. I think opportunity wise Retested that every looks quite interesting should we get in and for that small stop don't need too much in it Maybe you want to protect it by having it the other side of this trend line as well To to get in target in the low good risk reward on that as well moving over to US equities We have drifted down off those highs and I wouldn't be too surprised to see that Continue, I think to want to get long you've got to find out where maybe these lines in the sand I know people were looking at that trend line break and Yesterday and you can just see how messy that was you had a brief go at it quarter past five I mean the target would of course have to be a swan So probably got stopped out the first time risk or doesn't make sense and later on it find support there So bit messy on that. However, if we were to to push higher at some point I mean, it's not not great really on these trend lines Have map marked up and we could argue this one's probably the the better one starting from yesterday morning's high at nine Been quite well respected. So long above there or and yesterday's low You might see things really start to push higher But for now, I think as long as we remain below 2973 the short might be that the preferred option As well and you can see this trend from the low. We are just Making higher lows but a break of that and you could absolutely get a further push down And then suddenly you're looking towards the s two levels and lows that we had from the second so to Tuesday last week as well relatively quiet though for now after you know, the Dax did push lower Which also dragged us equities to an extent. I'm gonna look at golden oil Just to wrap things up gold relatively quiet in a bit of a range pivot Looks quite interesting from a technical point of view 1400 the handle previous highs from yesterday, however Also some resistance just above that so as a zone as it goes. It's relatively big about two dollars So picking the entry there you have to be a bit careful more waiting to see what happens around that point And also whether you would want to go short there or not for me would depend on what happens Or what would happen how we get there? How do we break this trend line? Is it really aggressive and therefore actually the longest the opportunity to the downside you can see we haven't had a third test Of this trend line here, but the interesting see what happens for that It could well be that the opportunities are the brakes either way, of course though decent resistance points above the The top trend line of the pennant and decent support you could argue below that as well That's where I would be be looking if I could choose only one trade I think I do like the the short from 14 0 5.3 nice on the pivot yesterday. We didn't really get a full retest of that whole area 14 0 6.1 and 14 0 5 and a half I would quite like the look of getting back in again You can see really nice support before that breakdown could that happen today. Well knowing gold it It could happen in in in 30 minutes or so, but I don't I don't necessarily think that will happen today wrapping up on on oil Tight range tight range key support being tested all throughout this morning and yesterday You can see quite wiki on that. So if you were looking for the breakout yesterday, which is of course non farm payroll monday The post of that is is always unwise. You would have got your fingers burnt a couple of times You know, this is now a zone now about an eight tick zone wait for anything to happen to the downside That would have to clear and even say in that the next key support is is 12 ticks below So does the risk for water that really make too much sense? We are just getting squeezed In each each of the days range is looking quite small I mean it doesn't look too appealing right now unless we were to really break either way I'll be interested to see what other people think about oil for me. It doesn't look Too appealing I would say right now unless maybe break retest to then get into to attempt to to go in either way on the break of the range Whether that's going to happen today on on Tuesday I'm not too sure the data calendar Again, not massively Busy if we just have a quick flick back to that you can see Really the only things that are going to move from a data schedule Well, I know we're just talking about oil there. So the api before that a bit limited although obviously uk conservative stuff on iv the Debate that would obviously be something to stick around with pound actually again just testing that low and then the speakers as well but in in summary of everything the pound under pressure Keep an eye out for euro related ECB ECB QE chat China US trade talks perhaps just Weighing on things as well and sentiment the s&p and the dax just Coming back down to to lower levels and actually the dax just breaking that low. So remember the the gap feel Almost almost happening. So Keep an eye on this because obviously the idea would be you'd have a decent reaction of people would be looking to take profit and Um, we'll go long so quite a key level coming up there Just below where we're trading and also Calendar wise i'm going to be expecting too much other than maybe the speakers but as and mentioned where we're power speaking um At a stress test discussion Unlikely to really move markets too much. Anyway, key level coming up on the dax just testing there now That breaks you can imagine s&p would would also follow suit with US equities Down on nasdaq. Of course doing the same. I hope you all have a good morning. Good trading day And i look forward to speaking to you all later on